国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何？国际 金价为何大幅飙升？面对诸多不确定因素，金价涨势能否持续？ 国际金价走势如何 7日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元，一度创下 每盎司4014.60美元的历史新高。 今年以来，国际金价已累计上涨约50%，黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的主要资产之一。分析人士认为，黄 金市场"害怕错过"情绪比获利回吐情绪更为强烈，导致黄金虽然已经超买，但仍有足够买盘推高价格。 此外，当前日本经济面临财政和货币政策两难、经济增长乏力、国际竞争力不足以及美国加征关税等多 重困境；法国国内政治两极化加剧，削弱了其进行大规模财政整顿的能力。上述因素叠加持续不断的地 缘冲突，共同推动国际金价持续走高。 金价涨势能否持续 展望未来，若美联储进一步降息、美元延续疲软态势、地缘政治紧张持续，黄金价格还可能继续走强。 但随着黄金价格屡创新高，也有观点认为市场需防范短线调整风险。多家投行预计，国际金价年内或在 每盎司3800美元至4100美元区间内波动。 金价连创新高，反映出全球避险需求上升和美元信用度下降的双 ...

Core Insights - The spot gold price has strongly surpassed the $4,000 per ounce mark, driven by concerns over the U.S. economy and government shutdown, alongside a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [1][5] - Major investment firms like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase predict that gold prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce, marking the beginning of a "5K era" [1][14] - Gold has significantly outperformed both U.S. and global stocks since the beginning of the century, with a year-to-date increase of over 54% amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [3][13] Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a reallocation of funds, as investors seek safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties and a potential shift in monetary policy [4][16] - The demand for gold ETFs has surged, with September seeing the largest monthly inflow in over three years, indicating strong investor interest in gold as a hedge against inflation [9][16] - Central banks globally have shifted from being net sellers to net buyers of gold, significantly contributing to the current bullish trend in gold prices [10][13] Future Projections - Analysts predict that gold could reach $4,500 per ounce by mid-next year, with some forecasts suggesting a potential rise to $8,500 if central bank holdings align with dollar reserves [16][17] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for gold prices in December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong demand from both ETFs and central banks [16] - JPMorgan Chase estimates that a $10 billion increase in quarterly nominal gold demand could lead to a price increase of approximately 3% per quarter, indicating a strong sensitivity of gold prices to shifts in investment flows [16][17]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surpassed the $4000 per ounce mark, marking a significant milestone in a three-year bull market [1] - The surge in gold prices has surprised bearish investors and rendered traditional gold forecasting models ineffective [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The turning point for gold began during the pandemic, when prices first broke the $2000 per ounce barrier due to market panic [2] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has further fueled gold's upward momentum, with a projected 27% increase in 2024 driven by central banks and Chinese investors [2] - Recent macroeconomic factors, including a potential U.S. government shutdown and a weakening dollar, have contributed to the heightened interest in gold [2] Group 2: Historical Context - Gold prices have recently exceeded the inflation-adjusted historical peak set 45 years ago, when prices reached $850 per ounce amid multiple crises in the U.S. [5] - Current market conditions are seen as reminiscent of the past, with some analysts drawing parallels to the economic environment of the late 1970s [5] Group 3: Central Bank Influence - Central banks have played a dominant role in the gold market, significantly increasing their gold purchases to diversify assets and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar [8] - Gold has now surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings in non-U.S. central bank foreign exchange reserves, becoming the second-largest asset in these reserves [8] - The U.S. government's gold holdings have reached a market value exceeding $1 trillion, significantly outpacing its recorded liabilities [8] Group 4: Chinese Market Trends - In early 2024, Chinese demand was a key support for gold prices, driven by a renewed interest in safe-haven assets due to global market disruptions [11] - Recently, however, Chinese gold prices have fallen below international benchmarks, indicating a shift in market dynamics where Western investors are now the primary drivers of gold price increases [11] Group 5: ETF Market Activity - Gold ETFs have become a mainstream channel for Western investors to gain exposure to gold, with significant inflows observed since mid-2024, totaling over 16 million ounces [14] - Despite the recent inflows, current ETF holdings remain below the peak levels seen during the pandemic, suggesting potential for further growth in gold investment [14] Group 6: Investor Sentiment - The recent surge in gold prices reflects a structural shift in investor sentiment and global capital flows, driven by concerns over sanctions, asset seizures, and fiscal sustainability [16]

该养老金计划的总基金管理负责人曼鲁普·朱蒂在接受采访时表示："我们担心，如果财政状况持续恶化 一段时间"，美债市场可能不再具备避险属性。此番表态正值美国因财政支出争议陷入政府停摆僵局， 市场参与者对美元前景的预警声音日益增多。 管理着7317亿加元(约合5243亿美元)资产的CPPIB在全球多个资产类别进行投资。朱蒂指出，债券在任 何资产配置策略中都是"良好的多元化工具"，目前该基金仍维持对美国市场的投资敞口，其投资组合中 约半数资产集中于美国。 智通财经APP获悉，加拿大养老金计划投资委员会(CPPIB)警告，若美国财政压力持续加剧，美国国债 可能面临丧失避险资产地位的風險。 但他强调，对美国长期财政状况的担忧在于，国债可能逐渐"丧失这种分散风险的效果，因为它越来越 像风险资产，而非无风险资产"。 亿万富翁投资者们正担忧黄金正日益被视为比美元更安全的资产。桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧此前表 示，黄金"无疑"比美元更具避险属性，本轮金价上涨令人联想到1970年代——当时在高通胀与经济不稳 定时期黄金价格飙升。 与此同时，美国联邦政府停摆及市场对美联储持续降息的预期推动金价自7月底以来上涨超20%，至约 每盎司40 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international spot gold price has historically surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, indicating a significant surge in gold prices driven by various factors, including increased demand for safe-haven assets and expectations of monetary policy changes [3][4]. Price Surge - On October 7, 2025, gold futures prices reached $4000.05 per ounce, marking a historic milestone. Following this, on October 8, the spot gold price also crossed the $4000 threshold, peaking at $4020.9 per ounce [4]. - Since the beginning of 2025, gold prices have risen over 50%, potentially achieving the strongest annual increase since 1979 [3][4]. Driving Factors - **Increased Safe-Haven Demand**: The ongoing U.S. government shutdown crisis has significantly boosted demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, with predictions of permanent job losses in federal positions [5]. - **Monetary Policy Expectations**: Anticipation of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has contributed to rising gold prices, as lower real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold [5]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, with China's central bank reporting a gold reserve of 74.06 million ounces as of September, marking the 11th consecutive month of increases [6]. Historical Context - Over the past 50 years, gold prices have shown a clear cyclical pattern, increasing from $35 per ounce in 1971 to a current price that has risen 94 times, demonstrating its long-term value as a safe-haven asset [7]. - Major price increases have occurred in distinct phases, influenced by various geopolitical and economic factors, including the end of the gold standard, oil crises, and financial market turmoil [7]. Market Outlook - Major financial institutions remain optimistic about future gold prices, with Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into ETFs and continued central bank purchases [8]. - UBS predicts gold prices will reach $4200 per ounce by the end of the year, supported by fundamental and momentum factors [8].

Core Viewpoint - International spot gold prices have surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, marking a new high driven by increased demand from institutional investors, central banks, and individuals seeking safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Price Movement - As of now, international spot gold prices have risen by 52% this year [1] - Domestic gold jewelry brands in China have also reached new highs, with prices exceeding 1160 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: Market Drivers - The recent surge in gold prices coincides with the U.S. federal government shutdown that began on October 1 [1] - Ongoing trade policies and geopolitical tensions have accelerated the rise in gold prices, particularly influenced by U.S. President Trump's tariff policies [1] - Signs of cooling in the U.S. job market in August and September have contributed to the recent spike in gold prices [1] Group 3: Central Bank and Investor Behavior - Central banks and investors are increasingly viewing gold as an alternative to the U.S. dollar [1] - The Polish central bank purchased over 60 tons of gold in the year ending August 31, with significant purchases also reported from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkey [1] - Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel Investment, noted a significant shift of funds from dollar assets to other areas as investors seek to de-dollarize and mitigate risks [1] Group 4: Future Expectations - Market expectations indicate that gold prices may continue to rise, with predictions suggesting a potential increase to $4300 per ounce within the next six months [1]

新华社发 国际金价日前再创新高，突破每盎司4000美元历史关口，引发市场广泛关注。黄金究竟表现如何？国际 金价为何大幅飙升？面对诸多不确定因素，金价涨势能否持续？ 国际金价走势如何 7日，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价突破每盎司4000美元，一度创下 每盎司4014.60美元的历史新高。 首先，美元疲软与美国财政不确定性显著提升了黄金的避险吸引力。由于美国联邦政府持续"停摆"，关 键经济数据发布延迟，令市场对经济前景的判断缺乏清晰指引。为防范风险，投资者选择持续增持黄 金。 其次，美联储近期降息并暗示年内仍可能延续宽松货币政策，令美元资产吸引力下降。实际利率下行与 流动性预期改善共同支撑金价攀升。 今年以来，国际金价已累计上涨约50%，黄金成为全球表现最亮眼的主要资产之一。分析人士认为，黄 金已经超买，但仍有足够买盘推高价格。 金价连创新高，反映出全球避险需求上升和美元信用度下降的双重信号。 桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧7日表示，投资者应将"约15%的资产配置在黄金中"。他认为，债务工具"已不 再是有效的财富储藏手段"，黄金则是"当投资组合其他部分下跌时表现最佳的资产"。 高盛集团 ...

全球财政宽松与债务激增正在加剧货币贬值担忧。Eurizon表示，美元短期反弹仅是由于欧元与日元因本国政治 与财政风险走弱所致，长期来看美元仍将延续下行趋势。报告指出，新兴市场央行自俄乌冲突以来更加警惕储备 资产遭冻结风险，正逐步减少对美元和欧元的依赖，转而增持黄金及其他非传统资产。"加密投资者因不信任中 央化金融体系而拥抱数字货币，而各国央行则在'去美元化'中寻求安全的新锚。" Metals Focus黄金与白银主管Matthew Piggott表示："当前宏观经济与地缘政治环境均极度有利于黄金作为避险资 产的表现，对其他传统避险资产的担忧进一步放大了金价的吸引力。除非出现重大利空催化剂，我们预计金价 2026年前仍将维持上行势头，并有望挑战5000美元。" 黄金与比特币近期齐创纪录高位，显示全球投资者正加速远离美元等主要储备货币，转向以黄金与加密资产为代 表的避险替代品。智通财经APP获悉，据Eurizon SLJ Capital分析，这一趋势源于各国央行持续的货币超发与政府 赤字扩张，导致市场对法定货币信用的信任度下滑。 此外，渣打银行全球大宗商品研究主管Paul Cooper指出，白银市场供需持续紧张， ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Shenzhen is experiencing a significant downturn, with new home sales failing to meet expectations during the National Day holiday, marking the fourth consecutive year of disappointing performance in the "Golden September and Silver October" sales period. In contrast, the gold market, particularly in the Shui Bei area, is thriving due to rising international gold prices, indicating a shift in asset preference among consumers [2][9][10]. Real Estate Market Summary - During the National Day holiday, new home transactions in Shenzhen saw a slight increase, with 171 units sold, representing a nearly 30% year-on-year rise. However, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, with developers resorting to discounts and promotional strategies to stimulate sales [9][4]. - Developers are implementing various pricing strategies, including "fixed price," "special price houses," and "zero down payment" offers to attract buyers. For instance, specific projects are offering significant cash rebates and discounts on larger units [5][6][7]. - The second-hand housing market is struggling, with transaction volumes dropping by 46% and total area sold decreasing by 54% compared to the previous year, indicating a stark contrast to the new home market [9]. Gold Market Summary - The international gold price has been on a steady rise, surpassing $4,069 per ounce during the holiday, which has led to increased consumer interest in gold purchases, particularly in the Shui Bei market [10][11]. - The Shui Bei gold market has seen a surge in activity, with prices reaching a record high of 926 yuan per gram, driven by both traditional wedding jewelry demand and investment purchases [11][13]. - Promotional activities in gold stores have intensified, with discounts ranging from 10% to 12% being offered, further boosting consumer enthusiasm during the holiday period [16].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged significantly, with New York futures gold surpassing $4000 per ounce for the first time, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 50% [1][4] Gold Market Performance - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, gold consumption saw a spike, particularly in Shenzhen's Shui Bei market, where gold jewelry prices rose from approximately 796 yuan per gram in early September to 926 yuan per gram by October 8 [1][2] - The price of gold jewelry has exceeded 1160 yuan per gram for most brands, with "one-price" products being particularly popular during the holiday [2] Consumer Behavior - Many consumers expressed regret for not purchasing gold earlier, as prices increased by 38 yuan per gram over the holiday [2] - Despite high prices, consumer demand remains strong, especially for wedding jewelry, which is considered a necessity [1][2] Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in inquiries about accumulation gold products at banks, which are perceived as more stable compared to gold futures [2] - The price difference between gold jewelry sales and buyback prices has widened, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] Market Strategies - Merchants are adopting risk management strategies, such as maintaining inventory levels based on sales rather than increasing stock [3] - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to strong inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), ongoing purchases by central banks, and geopolitical risks [3][4] Economic Factors - The recent surge in gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased global central bank gold purchases [4] - Long-term trends suggest that gold remains a valuable asset for hedging against inflation and geopolitical risks, with predictions of gold prices reaching $4900 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3][4]