广发证券26年港股策略展望：日积跬步，水涨船高 广发证券指出，（1）本轮港股资产上涨具备基本面支撑，由于较A股更少的传统经济板块，自2024年 下半年开始，在内外需共同企稳、宏观政策发力托底的背景下，港股盈利已经出现结构性修复迹象，只 是阶段性被外卖补贴战打破。（2）中美战略性关键科技领域中，绝大部分核心公司在港股有上市。高 端制造业、科技的成长正从"单点突破"迈向"多点爆破"。映射至资本市场，港股正从传统的顺经济周 期，逐步转向AI应用、新能源、半导体等代表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接 近50%。（3）随着外卖补贴战退坡以及AI驱动的广告及云服务成为新的增长点，恒指2026年业绩增速 有望回升至10.8%，港股上涨可能从流动性驱动转向盈利和流动性共同驱动。 1月5日港股收盘，港股恒生指数涨0.03%，报26347.24点，恒生科技指数涨0.09%，报5741.63点，国企 指数跌0.22%，报9148.47点，红筹指数涨0.07%，报4086.74点。脑机接口概念股领涨，南京熊猫电子股 份大涨近40%，脑动极光涨超15%；内房股拉升，融信中国涨超6%，世茂集团涨超5%。新能源汽车股 ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher on December 24, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.02% to 25,780.09 points and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.07% to 5,492.83 points, indicating a mixed market trend [1][7]. Sector Performance - The smart driving sector showed strong performance, driven by the issuance of the first batch of L3-level high-speed autonomous driving special license plates in Beijing, leading to a collective rise in related stocks. Notable gainers included TuDatong (HK02665) with over a 4% increase, and Youjia Innovation rising over 1%, along with other companies like Hesai, GAC Group, Leap Motor, and WeRide also experiencing gains [3][9]. - Chip stocks also performed well, with SMIC opening up over 2% and Huahong Semiconductor and Shanghai Fudan both rising over 1%. This improvement is attributed to the recovery in wafer foundry demand and increased capacity utilization, enhancing the overall industry outlook [3][9]. Gold and Real Estate Stocks - Gold stocks continued their recent upward trend, with China Silver Group rising over 2% amid strong international gold prices, attracting continued investment interest in precious metals [5][11]. - The real estate sector showed slight activity, with Sunac China increasing over 1%, while some bank stocks also saw minor gains, such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 1% [5][11]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks mostly declined, contributing to market pressure. Tencent Holdings fell by 0.66%, Alibaba by 0.14%, JD Group by 0.18%, Xiaomi by 0.26%, Meituan by 0.39%, and Bilibili by 0.46%. Only NetEase managed to rise by 1.22% [5][11].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market indices opened higher and continued to rise, with the Hang Seng Index closing up by 1.36% at midday [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 1.17% and 1.45% respectively, indicating a sustained recovery in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - Major technology stocks, serving as market barometers, collectively rose, contributing to the overall market uptrend [1] - Consumer sectors, including restaurants, dairy products, and home appliances, became active following the central government's emphasis on promoting consumption [1] - Precious metals such as silver and copper reached new highs, while stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector showed renewed strength [1] Notable Trends - Despite the overall positive market movement, consumer electronics stocks that performed strongly previously experienced declines [1] - The semiconductor sector saw a majority of stocks decline, contrasting with the performance of other sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a downturn in the morning session, with major indices declining, particularly the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, which fell by 1.1% and 1.15% respectively, leading to a drop of nearly 300 points and a loss of the 26,000-point mark for the Hang Seng Index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both saw significant declines, with the former dropping 1.1% and the latter 1.15% [1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index decreased by 0.24%, despite reaching a high of 0.8% during the session [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Large technology stocks generally performed poorly, although Baidu saw a notable increase of 3.5% due to favorable industry news [1] - Chinese brokerage and insurance stocks maintained an upward trend, benefiting from positive industry developments [1] - The performance of non-ferrous metal stocks, including copper, aluminum, and gold, was weak, while oil and banking stocks also faced downward pressure [1]

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.18%, the Nasdaq down 1.08%, and the S&P 500 down 0.58% [1] Technology Sector - Large-cap tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tesla down over 3% and Nvidia down over 2% [3] - Specific stock performances include: - Facebook (Meta Platforms) up 1.31% - Apple up 0.50% - Microsoft up 0.18% - Amazon down 0.54% - Alphabet (Google) down 2.40% - Nvidia down 2.41% [4] Semiconductor Industry - The semiconductor sector performed poorly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down nearly 2%. Intel fell over 3%, while AMD and TSMC were down over 1% [5] Chinese Stocks - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 0.37%. Notable gainers included: - Arctech Solar up over 7% - Bawang Tea up over 4% - Alibaba up nearly 3% - JD.com up over 1% - However, companies like Hesai Technology, Bilibili, and Global Data fell over 4% [5] Commodities - Gold and silver prices declined slightly, with spot gold at $4,193 per ounce, down 0.04%, and spot silver at $53 per ounce, down 0.47% [5] Cryptocurrency Market - Multiple cryptocurrencies experienced declines, with Bitcoin down nearly 2% at $102,270 per coin. Over 150,000 users were liquidated in the past 24 hours [6] Economic Data Concerns - The White House Press Secretary warned that the federal government shutdown could permanently affect the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and employment data, potentially leaving the Federal Reserve without critical information for decision-making [6]

Market Performance - The A-share market indices opened high and continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing nearly 1% to reclaim the 4000-point mark. The total market turnover reached 20,759 billion, an increase of 1,816 billion compared to the previous day [1] - The CSI A500 Index rose by 1.5%, the CSI 300 Index increased by 1.4%, the ChiNext Index gained 1.8%, and the STAR Market 50 Index surged by 3.3%. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index also saw a rise of 2.1% [1] Sector Performance - The leading sectors in terms of gains included phosphorus chemical, aluminum metal, storage chips, pesticides, CPO, and power equipment [1] - Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines were the Hainan Free Trade Zone, ice and snow industry, short drama games, retail, and port shipping [1] Index Details - The CSI 300 Index consists of 300 stocks from the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, covering 11 primary industries, with a rolling P/E ratio of 14.2 times [3] - The CSI A500 Index is composed of 500 securities with larger market capitalization and better liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 tertiary industries, with a rolling P/E ratio of 16.6 times [3] Technology Sector Insights - The technology sector shows a significant concentration, with over 65% representation from semiconductor companies, alongside medical devices, software development, and photovoltaic equipment, which together account for nearly 80% [5]

Core Points - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,906.65 points, down 1.43% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index closed at 5,908.08 points, down 2.37% [1] Company Performance - Semiconductor stocks led the decline, with Hua Hong Semiconductor falling over 7% and SMIC down over 5% [1] - Major tech stocks also experienced losses, with Alibaba down over 4%, Tencent Holdings down over 3%, and JD Group and Baidu Group both down over 2% [1] Sector Performance - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector saw gains, with Innovent Biologics rising over 7%, and Fosun Pharma and Rongchang Biologics both increasing over 6% [1]

Market Performance - The U.S. stock market indices have risen for five consecutive days, with all three major indices reaching record closing levels. The Dow Jones increased by 0.17% to 46,519.72 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.06% to 6,715.35 points, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed by 0.39% to 22,844.05 points [1][2]. Government Shutdown Impact - The U.S. federal government has entered a shutdown due to the Senate's rejection of a temporary funding bill, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who are forced to take unpaid leave. Public services, including national parks and the aviation system, are also impacted [2][13]. - Market concerns about the shutdown's direct economic impact initially pressured stocks, but investors believe the funding interruption will be short-lived and not severely detrimental to the economy [2]. Technology Sector Developments - OpenAI has completed a transaction allowing employees to sell company shares at a valuation of $500 billion, surpassing Elon Musk's SpaceX and making OpenAI the most valuable startup globally. This news has boosted optimism in the artificial intelligence sector, leading to a rise in semiconductor stocks and a new high for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index [3][4]. - Nvidia's stock rose by 0.88% to $188.89, achieving a market capitalization of $4.598 trillion. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 1.94% [4][7]. Major Tech Stocks Performance - Most large-cap tech stocks saw gains, with notable movements including Microsoft down 0.76%, Apple up 0.66%, and Amazon up 0.81%. Tesla, however, fell by 5.11% [6][7]. Cryptocurrency and Related Stocks - Cryptocurrency-related stocks performed well, with Circle rising by 16.04%, Bullish by 11.68%, and Coinbase by 7.48% [8]. Chinese Stocks Performance - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index increased by 1.06%, with several popular Chinese stocks rising, including Alibaba up 3.59% and NIO up 3.14% [8]. Company News - Tesla reported a record third-quarter delivery of 497,099 vehicles, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, exceeding market expectations. However, there are concerns about declining demand in October due to the expiration of tax credits [9]. - Amazon launched a new private label, "Amazon Grocery," aimed at competing with Walmart and Costco, offering over 1,000 grocery items priced under $5 [10]. - Boeing's 777X aircraft delivery has been delayed until 2027, potentially resulting in non-cash accounting charges estimated between $2.5 billion and $4 billion [11].

Core Viewpoint - UBS highlights that the S&P 500 index has entered a traditionally weak month of September after a strong rally, suggesting investors consider gradually increasing equity exposure during market pullbacks [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen nearly 30% since its April 2025 low and recently surpassed the 6500-point mark, experiencing a slight pullback [1] - Historically, September has been the worst-performing month for the S&P 500, with an average return of approximately -2% over the past decade, and six out of the last ten Septembers have seen declines [1] - UBS forecasts the S&P 500 index to reach 6800 points by the end of June 2026, indicating an upside potential of about 5% [1][2] Group 2: Earnings Growth - 98% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q2 earnings, with 81% exceeding expectations, and the guidance for Q3 remains optimistic [2] - UBS predicts that the earnings per share (EPS) for S&P 500 constituents will reach $270 in 2025 (an 8% year-over-year increase) and $290 in 2026 (a 7.5% increase) [2] - Despite a forward P/E ratio of approximately 22, which is at the upper limit of historical ranges, strong earnings growth supports this valuation level [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Cuts - Recent inflation data shows easing price pressures, particularly in energy and commodity sectors, while labor market demand is slowing, leading to a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve [3] - UBS anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates by a total of 100 basis points over the next four meetings, which is expected to support the stock market [3] - Historically, rate-cutting cycles by the Fed have been associated with positive stock market returns when the economy continues to grow [3] Group 4: Long-term AI Trends - Major tech companies reported strong Q2 earnings, with many exceeding revenue and EPS expectations, and guidance remains robust [4] - UBS has raised its global AI capital expenditure forecasts to $375 billion and $500 billion for the next two years [4] - The expected EPS growth rate for the global tech sector is projected to be 15% in 2025 and 12.5% in 2026 [4] Group 5: Future Market Returns - Historically, the S&P 500 has shown positive average returns in October and November following a weak September, with average returns of 1.2% and 4%, respectively [5] - Since 1960, the S&P 500 has averaged a 12% return in the year following a new all-time high, with an average return of 38% over the next three years [5] - UBS recommends that underweight investors consider gradually increasing their equity exposure, particularly in sectors such as technology, healthcare, utilities, and financials, in addition to AI [5] Group 6: Regional Market Insights - In Europe, UBS favors high-dividend Swiss stocks, quality European stocks, and European industrial stocks, along with six major investment themes [6] - In Asia, the preference is for Chinese tech stocks, as well as markets in Singapore and India, with Brazil also seen as having investment opportunities [7] Group 7: Gold Market Outlook - Gold reached a record high of $3508 per ounce on September 2, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [8] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to expectations of the Fed restarting rate cuts, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut in September [8] - UBS forecasts global gold demand to grow by 3% to 4760 tons in 2025, the highest level since 2011, and suggests maintaining gold allocation at a low single-digit percentage for investors [9]

Core Insights - Despite the high valuation of the S&P 500 at 22-22.5 times earnings, it is not considered overvalued, particularly in the technology sector, which still has room for growth [1][5] - The second quarter earnings season showed strong performance, with S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) growing by 10.6% and sales increasing by 6.1%, although this growth is heavily concentrated in a few sectors, mainly large tech and financials [3][4] Valuation Analysis - Large tech stocks are trading at approximately 29 times forward earnings, which is still below the expected level at the end of 2024 and lower than their historical premium over the S&P 500 [2][5] - In contrast, industrial stocks are considered overvalued, trading at 25 times earnings, driven by aerospace and defense and electrical equipment sectors [5] Earnings Performance - The second quarter earnings season exceeded expectations, with the breadth and depth of earnings surprises being the highest in four years [3] - Large tech stocks saw EPS growth of 27.6%, while other tech stocks grew by 19.7%, significantly above their long-term average of 8.7% [4] Sector Performance - The communication services sector showed remarkable growth of 24.8%, while consumer, materials, and utility sectors lagged behind, with earnings growth falling short of their long-term growth rates [4] - The financial and communication services sectors demonstrated the most significant improvement in profit margins, being the only two sectors to achieve positive operating leverage [4] Market Sentiment and Concerns - Concerns regarding tariffs have eased, with discussions about tariffs among executives decreasing from 90% to 76% in earnings calls, indicating a shift towards a more positive outlook on inventory levels [10] - Approximately 55% of executives discussed artificial intelligence (AI) topics in earnings calls, reflecting a growing trend, with a focus on efficiency improvements rather than cost [10]