Group 1: Trade Agreements - The U.S. has reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, where a 19% tariff will be imposed on goods from the Philippines and Indonesia, to be borne by U.S. companies, while U.S. exports to these countries will be tariff-free [1][2] - This agreement with the Philippines marks the fifth trade agreement announced in the past three months, with previous agreements lacking detailed disclosures [1] - The U.S. government has shifted its focus from quantity to quality in trade agreements, as indicated by recent statements from President Trump [1] Group 2: Tariff Changes and Economic Impact - President Trump has threatened to raise tariffs on all trade partners up to 50%, with a deadline for negotiations set for August 1, after which countries failing to reach agreements will face higher tariffs [2] - The U.S. imported $14 billion worth of goods from the Philippines last year, primarily electronics and processed foods, while exporting $9 billion, mainly consisting of electronics and processed foods [2] - Indonesia has agreed to eliminate several non-tariff barriers, including taxes on digital service revenues and pre-shipment inspections, which could facilitate U.S. agricultural exports to Indonesia [3] Group 3: Indonesia Trade Details - Indonesia is the 23rd largest trading partner of the U.S., with imports totaling $28 billion in 2024, mainly consisting of clothing and footwear, while U.S. exports to Indonesia are projected at $10 billion, focusing on oilseeds, grains, and energy products [3] - The agreement with Indonesia includes acceptance of U.S. federal vehicle safety standards and the removal of export restrictions on key minerals [3]

继印尼之后，又一个美国的贸易伙伴通过达成协议降低特朗普政府将要征收的所谓对等关税。 当地时间7月22日，据央视新闻，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体平台"真实社交"上发文称，当天，他在白宫会见到访的菲律宾 总统马科斯，双方达成了贸易协议。特朗普称，将对菲律宾征收19%的关税。菲律宾将对美国开放市场，并实行零关税。 特朗普在社交媒体透露，除了贸易，美菲两国还将在军事上开展合作，但未透露他和马科斯是否正式签署了任何文件。菲律 宾政府也未确认同美国达成贸易协议。 从特朗普以上所说看，美国对菲律宾实行的新关税将低于将近两周前他发函通知从下月起将要实行的水平。换言之，美菲贸 易协议让特朗普政府降低了计划对菲律宾实行的新关税。 特朗普7月9日发布了致合计八个国家领导人的征关税信函，当天披露的第一批征税函中就包括菲律宾。据央视新闻，信中特 朗普表示，美国将自2025年8月1日起对文莱和摩尔多瓦的产品征收25%的关税，对阿尔及利亚、伊拉克及利比亚的产品征收 30%关税，对菲律宾的产品征收20%关税。 本周二美股午盘时段，特朗普宣布对菲律宾征收的关税会更低后，三大美股指或是涨幅略有扩大，或是跌幅收窄。其中，午 盘转涨的标普日内涨近0 ...

【文/观察者网 齐倩】"卢特尼克——特朗普的关税交易负责人。"7月21日，美媒《纽约客》引用多名知 情人士的描述，以此为题针对美国商务部长卢特尼克发布了一篇长篇报道。 "跑腿的""没那么聪明""喋喋不休""内阁中最特朗普式的成员"……被问及如何看待卢特尼克时，这些与 卢特尼克有共事经历的美国政府工作人员如此形容道。 尽管外界对卢特尼克迄今为止的履职表现褒贬不一，但他自认为是特朗普的"首席交易撮合者"。据现年 62岁的卢特尼克本人透露，美国总统特朗普几乎每晚都会在凌晨1点左右打电话给他，有时只是为了闲 聊、谈论体育，有时也会寻求卢特尼克对他在媒体面前表现的反馈。 报道还披露，特朗普4月2日公布所谓"对等关税"后，税率计算方式遭到群嘲。当晚，特朗普怒气冲冲地 打电话给卢特尼克，问他税率是如何确定的。报道称，即使卢特尼克自己并不太清楚，但也要为此"背 锅"。 "卢特尼克自认为最懂特朗普" 特朗普与卢特尼克 社交 媒体 报道称，特朗普曾说过："我喜欢做交易，最好是大交易。这就是我的乐趣所在。"看得出来，卢特尼克 也秉持着类似的原则。卢特尼克主要将自己视为特朗普的"首席交易撮合者"。 报道提及，卢特尼克在一次采访中，指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The negotiations between Japan and the U.S. are facing challenges due to the weakened political position of Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe following the recent Senate election losses, which may lead to a tougher stance from the Trump administration [1][4]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan's Minister of Economic and Fiscal Policy, Akizawa, is in Washington for the 8th round of ministerial talks, but the U.S. is showing a lack of urgency to reach an agreement [1][3]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin emphasized that the priority is to achieve a "high-quality agreement" rather than rushing to finalize a deal [3]. - The Trump administration's assessment of Abe's weakened position may influence their negotiation strategy, potentially leading to a more hardline approach [4]. Group 2: Japan's Position and Strategy - Japan is under pressure to make concessions if it seeks to expedite negotiations, with Abe advocating for investment over tariffs as a means to negotiate [5]. - The U.S. demands market openness and a reduction in trade deficits, which contrasts with Japan's focus on tariff adjustments and investment commitments [5]. - Japan's willingness to lower tariffs on agricultural products and accept more U.S. agricultural imports could be key to persuading the Trump administration [5]. Group 3: External Influences - The outcomes of negotiations with other countries, such as India, may impact Japan's negotiations, as India has temporarily withdrawn its negotiation team [5]. - If the U.S. does not achieve significant results before the August 1 deadline, Trump may unexpectedly accept Japan's previous proposals to declare a victory [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy in the first half of the year showed resilience, with GDP growing by 5.3% year - on - year, higher than the annual target of 5%. Fiscal efforts and "rush to export" supported the economic data, but policy urgency decreased. The export in June was strong, while social retail growth slowed down, and fixed - asset investment weakened. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July for potential further pro - growth policies [1]. - Since July, policies to combat "involution" in industries such as steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have been expected to increase, with some commodity prices recovering. However, more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reducing policies are needed to advance the "anti - involution" trading; otherwise, the weak demand de - stocking cycle may cause fluctuations [2]. - The passage of the "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill in the US shifts its policy to a "loose - prone" stage. The second phase of the reciprocal tariff has started, and it may have a negative impact on sentiment and demand expectations [3]. - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. Currently, the commodity fundamentals are weak, and caution is needed regarding policy implementation [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - China's economic data in the first half of the year was supported by fiscal efforts and "rush to export." In June, exports were strong, social retail growth slowed down due to subsidy cuts, and fixed - asset investment weakened. The LPR remained unchanged in July, and the 25th China - EU leaders' meeting is scheduled for July 24. On July 21, the A - share market strengthened, and most domestic commodity futures rose [1]. "Anti - Involution" Transaction Tracking - Since July, policies to address "involution" in industries like steel, photovoltaic, and new energy vehicles have been emphasized. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce work plans for ten key industries, but more detailed energy - saving and carbon - reducing policies are required for further progress [2]. Impact of "Reciprocal Tariffs" - The US has shifted to a "loose - prone" policy stage after passing the "Big Beautiful" bill. The second phase of reciprocal tariffs has begun, with tariffs imposed on multiple countries. The tariff situation is currently in a "stagnant" phase, which may affect sentiment and demand expectations [3]. Commodity Plate Analysis - The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side factors, while the energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is affected by weak downstream demand, the supply shortage in the non - ferrous sector persists, and the energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on industrial products at low prices [5]. Important News - The LPR remained unchanged in July. The 25th China - EU leaders' meeting is scheduled for July 24. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will take effect on September 15, 2025. On July 21, the A - share market strengthened, and most domestic commodity futures rose. The US Treasury Secretary mentioned potential interest - rate cuts, and Japan's ruling coalition suffered a major defeat in the Senate election. Russia supports the third round of negotiations on the Russia - Ukraine issue [6].

Group 1 - Brazil's government expressed strong outrage against the U.S. for imposing a 50% tariff on its imports, highlighting the potential negative impact on both economies and their long-standing trade relationship [1][3] - The Brazilian government has been willing to engage in sincere dialogue with the U.S. to seek alternative solutions for improving bilateral trade since the announcement of the tariffs [3] - Brazil's fishing industry announced a suspension of exports to the U.S. in response to the tariffs, with approximately 70% of its fishery products being sent to the U.S. [5][7] Group 2 - The Brazilian beef export sector is also affected, with some processing plants halting exports to the U.S. and around 30,000 tons of beef valued at $160 million uncertain for entry into the U.S. market [7] - The Brazilian government is advising exporters to pressure U.S. buyers and explore alternative markets, although no specific compensation measures have been proposed [5][7] - The fishing industry faces significant challenges, with over 1,000 tons of fish products worth approximately $50 million currently in cold storage and up to 3,500 fishing vessels potentially ceasing operations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration is actively reshaping global trade rules by imposing significant tariffs on allies and restricting trade with China, which has led to a notable decline in trade volumes between the U.S. and China [1][3]. Trade Impact - U.S. tariffs have resulted in a 20.8% year-on-year decline in trade between the U.S. and China in the second quarter, reversing the growth seen in the first quarter [3]. - In the first half of the year, the total trade value between China and the U.S. was 2.08 trillion yuan, a decrease of 9.3% compared to the previous year [1]. Trade Recovery Signs - June data showed a recovery in trade, with imports and exports between China and the U.S. exceeding 350 billion yuan, a significant increase from May's figures [3]. - The recovery is attributed to a temporary agreement reached in May, which paused tariff increases for 90 days, leading to increased imports from China as U.S. importers stockpiled goods [3]. China's Trade Resilience - Despite U.S. pressures, China's total goods trade in the first half of the year reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 7.2% [3][5]. - China has diversified its trade partnerships, with significant growth in trade with ASEAN (9.6% increase) and Africa (14.4% increase) [5]. U.S. Domestic Policy Disputes - There are increasing divisions within the U.S. regarding tariff policies, with some officials advocating for a more cautious approach to avoid negative economic consequences [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy is reflected in the internal conflicts within the Trump administration regarding the Federal Reserve's leadership [5]. Future Trade Negotiations - As the deadline for the tariff pause approaches, there is speculation about the potential for further negotiations between the U.S. and China, with both sides showing a willingness to avoid escalating tensions [8][10]. - China's recent trade agreements and zero-tariff policies for least developed countries are seen as efforts to stabilize its trade amidst external pressures [8].

Group 1 - The core issue in US-India trade negotiations remains agricultural market access, with both sides unable to reach an agreement as the deadline approaches [1] - The US negotiating team is scheduled to visit India in late August, indicating the complexity of the negotiations [1] - Indian officials emphasize that agriculture and dairy products are red lines in the trade talks, with no compromises that could weaken domestic agriculture [1] Group 2 - India is seeking better trade terms in textiles, footwear, specific auto parts, and shrimp, rejecting suboptimal solutions [1] - The US is demanding concessions from India on corn and soybeans, which conflict with India's current ban on genetically modified imports [1] - Concerns over the lack of transparency in trade agreements signed by Trump, particularly with Vietnam and Bangladesh, are complicating negotiations with India [2] Group 3 - Trump has indicated that a trade agreement with India could be finalized soon, but significant differences remain unresolved [2] - The announcement of new tariffs to be imposed on over 150 countries may impact the broader trade landscape and negotiations with India [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. has postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1, causing concerns in Taiwan regarding the tax rates to be imposed [1][2] - A report from a survey of 238 companies indicates that over 50% have already felt the direct impact of the proposed tariffs, with more than half predicting a revenue decrease of 10% to 30% if tariffs rise to 20% [1][2] - Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly those with fewer than 50 employees, are expected to be hit hardest, with 35.8% forecasting revenue drops exceeding 30% [1][2] Group 2 - Traditional industries, such as rubber manufacturing, are projected to suffer the most, with over 60% of firms expecting revenue declines of more than 30% if tariffs are implemented [2] - The report aligns with recent statistics from Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs, showing a significant drop in export orders to the U.S. for traditional industries [2] - Although high-tech sectors like electronics have seen an increase in orders, this is attributed to U.S. firms stockpiling, and over 40% of high-tech companies anticipate future revenue declines due to potential tariff expansions [2][4] Group 3 - The report identifies five structural challenges faced by SMEs in Taiwan, including currency volatility and rising industrial electricity prices [3] - Policy recommendations include stabilizing the exchange rate and reviewing energy policies to support affected industries [3] - The potential economic impact of U.S. and Chinese economic downturns on Taiwan's economy is highlighted, with estimates suggesting a 0.29% decline for every 1% drop in the U.S. economy [3] Group 4 - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar has led to significant foreign exchange losses for companies, with one major postal service reporting a loss of 140.3 billion NTD due to currency fluctuations [4][5] - The hospitality sector is also feeling the effects, with hotels reporting decreased revenue due to reduced international tourist arrivals linked to both tariffs and currency appreciation [4][5] - Concerns are raised about the lack of transparency in tariff negotiations, with political implications affecting economic stability and business confidence [5][6]

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人：夏雪 （微信 SuperSummerSnow） 目前，从已经披露的 28 个经济体的新定税率来看 ，巴西最高，为 50% ，其次是缅甸和老挝，为 40% ，泰国、柬埔寨、加拿大税率位列第三档，税率分别定 为 36% 、 36% 、 35% ，欧盟税率则为 30% ，日本、韩国税率定为 25% ，而越南、印尼、英国，与美国达成贸易协议（越南并未最终敲定），税率最低， 分别定为 20% 、 19% 、 10% 。 一、美国贸易谈判进展跟踪 （一）对等关税 2.0 概况 1 、新关税率是多少？详见图 1 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令，将互惠对等关税暂停期延长至 8 月 1 日，并陆续向数十个贸易伙伴发送函件，宣布新的关税率将于 8 月 1 日生效，新的关税 率与 4 月 2 号对等关税率大体相同，在 10%-50% 之间。此外， 7 月 17 日，特朗普接受采访时表示，将向 150 多个国家发送关税信函，关税率可能是 10% 或 15% ，还没有最终决定。 核心观点 1 ） 7 月 7 日，特朗普签署行政令， ...