Macro and Strategy Research - The report emphasizes the need for "high-quality" development, with a focus on technology and reform as the main themes for the upcoming five years [2][3] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will specifically highlight "technological self-reliance" and "comprehensive deepening of reform," indicating a shift towards more concrete and detailed goals compared to the previous plan [2][3] - The modern industrial system will prioritize "intelligent, green, and integrated" development, with advanced manufacturing playing a crucial role [3] - The report stresses the importance of domestic circulation and consumer demand, aiming to enhance living standards and stimulate new consumption [4] - There is a strong emphasis on social welfare, including education and social security, to address the immediate concerns of the populace [5] - The report outlines a commitment to accelerate the green transition and build a new energy system, with specific targets for carbon neutrality and renewable energy [6] Fixed Income Research - The report notes a narrow fluctuation in interest rates, with the yield curve flattening, indicating a stable but cautious market environment [12][14] - Recent fiscal data shows an improvement in tax revenue due to inflation, while government spending is increasingly focused on technology and public welfare [12] - The issuance of local government bonds has been significant, with a total of 789.5 billion yuan issued, aimed at stabilizing economic operations in the fourth quarter [13] - The bond market is currently influenced by uncertainties in U.S.-China relations and expectations of monetary policy adjustments [14] Industry Research - The report highlights significant achievements by Chinese pharmaceutical companies at the ESMO conference, showcasing advancements in cancer treatment and innovative therapies [18][19] - A notable collaboration between Innovent Biologics and Takeda Pharmaceuticals has been established, with a potential total deal value of up to 11.4 billion USD, marking a significant milestone in the Chinese biopharmaceutical sector [19][20] - The report indicates a mixed performance in the pharmaceutical sector, with a slight decline in the industry index, but suggests that the outlook remains positive due to ongoing innovation and market opportunities [19][20]

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 10 月 27 日 0 / 47 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 股指期货：利好传来逢低做多 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：震荡市等待做多机会 4 | | 豆粕：大豆压榨利润继续修复 盘面逐步反弹 5 | | --- | | 白糖：外糖价格继续下跌 郑糖价格相对抗跌 5 | | 油脂板块：短期盘面震荡略偏弱 7 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：玉米和淀粉: 玉米继续上量，盘面偏弱震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力好转 价格小幅反弹 8 | | 花生：花生油厂仍未大量收购，花生短期底部震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：淘鸡有所增加 蛋价有所企稳 10 | | 苹果：新季果质量较差 客商采购积极 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：收购进入高峰 棉价震荡略偏强 11 | | 钢材：河北开启环保限产，铁水产量继续下滑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：底部有支撑 上行有阻力 13 | | 铁矿：中期偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：宏观情绪带动反弹，但供需压力仍存 15 | | 贵金属：多空因素交织，关注央行周波动风险 17 | | --- | | 铜：中美达成初步共识，铜 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor materials and equipment sector is experiencing positive market sentiment, driven by government policies promoting technological self-reliance and recent U.S.-China business negotiations, which may enhance market risk appetite [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the midday close, the CSI Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme Index rose by 2.9%, the CSI Cloud Computing and Big Data Theme Index increased by 1.8%, and the CSI Chip Industry Index gained 1.4% [1]. - The semiconductor equipment ETF from E Fund (159558) saw a net subscription exceeding 10 million units in half a day [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the semiconductor equipment sector, characterized as a "growth + self-control" investment, is likely to benefit significantly from ongoing developments [1]. - Upcoming events such as performance releases from leading equipment manufacturers and new order placements are expected to provide continuous support for profit expectations in the semiconductor equipment sector [1].

央视网消息：党的二十届四中全会审议通过《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，为"十五五"时期 中国的发展擘画了蓝图。未来五年，经济社会发展的主要目标如何实现，我国如何抢占科技发展制高点，百姓的生活怎么进一步改 善？ 擘画蓝图："十五五"时期七大主要目标 全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的七大主要目标，即高质量发展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深 化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。 针对未来五年，有什么办法让老百姓的口袋能够再鼓一点这个问题，中国宏观经济研究院院长黄汉权表示，因为对大部分人来说， 他的收入主要是来自就业，所以要让老百姓能够获得更多的收入，那就是要提高就业的数量和质量。 全会指出，"十五五"时期，我国发展处于战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。我国经济基础稳、优势多、韧 性强、潜能大，长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变。 黄汉权表示，我们有强大的国内市场的优势，有完整的产业体系，还有丰富的人力资源优势，再加上现在正逐步从人口红利转向工 程师红利，人力资源的 ...

央视网消息：10月24日上午，中共中央举行新闻发布会，介绍和解读党的二十届四中全会精神。中央政策研究室主任江金权介绍，全会最 重要的成果是审议通过了《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》（以下简称《建议》）。党的二十大确定到2035 年基本实现社会主义现代化，"十五五"时期是夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。未来五年要怎么干？ 中央政策研究室主任江金权表示，制定"十五五"规划建议，系统谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，是实现党的二十大描绘的宏伟蓝图、分阶段 有步骤推进中国式现代化的需要，是有效应对复杂严峻的外部环境新变化、在激烈国际竞争中赢得战略主动的需要，是适应我国发展阶段性要 求、深入推动高质量发展的需要，意义重大。 关于"十五五"时期我国发展环境的总体判断，《建议》指出，大国关系牵动国际形势，国际形势演变深刻影响国内发展，我国发展处于战略机 遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的时期。要充分发挥中国特色社会主义制度优势、超大规模市场优势、完整产业体系优势、丰富人 才资源优势，把各方面优势转化为高质量发展的实际效能。 《建议》明确了"十五五"时期经济社会发展主要目标，主要包括七个方面：一 ...

Domestic Macro - On October 17, the Ministry of Finance announced that it will advance the issuance of the 2026 new local government debt limit this year, with an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to last year, supporting a broader range of projects [4][16]. - On the same day, the National Development Bank issued nearly 190 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments, focusing on supporting major economic provinces and increasing support for private investment and new productivity sectors, which is expected to drive total project investment of 2.8 trillion yuan [4][16]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee began on October 20, with General Secretary Xi Jinping delivering a work report, emphasizing the goal of achieving a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035 and deploying seven major tasks for high-quality development [4][16]. Industry Policy - On October 17, the Ministry of Commerce's Trade Relief Investigation Bureau decided to hold a hearing on the EU's anti-dumping case regarding pork and pork products [5][19]. - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, emphasized the importance of logistics in facilitating the domestic circulation and developing a modern industrial system during a State Council executive meeting on the same day [5][19]. - On October 20, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized a meeting to discuss stabilizing growth in the cement industry, stressing the need to implement the "Cement Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" [5][19]. Local Policy - On October 19, Wuhan introduced several measures to provide more benefits and support for homebuyers and enterprises [6][22]. - On October 21, the first AIC mother fund in the country was launched in Shenzhen, with a scale of 7 billion yuan, aimed at investing in the "20+8" industrial cluster [6][22]. - On October 22, the Yunnan Provincial Government issued a special action plan to financially support private enterprises, emphasizing increased financing support and optimizing credit services [6][22]. Overseas Dynamics - On October 17, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% new tariff on imports of medium and heavy trucks and parts, effective November 1 [7][23]. - On October 18, S&P downgraded France's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from "AA-" to "A+" [7][23]. - On October 20, the UK tax authority increased scrutiny of cryptocurrency investors, sending reminders to approximately 65,000 individuals suspected of tax evasion [7][23].

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the positive developments in the technology sector in China, driven by the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizing "high-quality" economic growth and the need to "seize the high ground in technological development" [1][3] - The recent meeting's communiqué indicates a significant improvement in China's self-reliance in technology, suggesting an increasing importance of technology in the national agenda compared to previous policies [3] - The market sentiment is shifting back towards growth styles, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and a clearer direction from the Federal Reserve, alongside a thawing in US-China relations [3] Group 2 - The AI industry is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic GPU production accelerating and strong demand for computing power, driven by new technologies such as DeepSeek-OCR and ByteDance's Seed3D1.0 [4] - The light module market is witnessing a surge in both shipment volumes and technological upgrades, with projections indicating significant market growth in the coming years, reaching $144 billion, $244 billion, and $327 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5] - The communication ETF (515880) is highlighted as a leading investment vehicle, with nearly 79% of its portfolio comprising light modules, servers, copper connections, and optical fibers, indicating strong fundamentals in computing hardware [6]

Report Summary Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, industrial silicon prices stabilized and rebounded. The Fourth Plenary Session's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasized green transformation, boosting domestic macro expectations. The polysilicon futures market also lifted market confidence. Supply remained stable with Xinjiang's increased production offset by reduced output in Sichuan and Yunnan. Demand from the polysilicon market fluctuated, silicon wafer production exceeded expectations, and the demand for 210RN in the medium and low-efficiency component market remained strong. Component inventory is expected to decrease slightly in November. Technically, the price is expected to remain strong in the short term [2][6][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The industrial silicon futures price increased by 5.81% to 8920 yuan/ton from November 17th to November 24th. The prices of various spot grades remained unchanged, while the prices of organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials decreased by 1.77% and 5.88% respectively. The industrial silicon social inventory remained at 510,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: The "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for realizing Chinese modernization and promoting high - quality development [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of October 24th, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 98,500 tons, a 1.1% week - on - week and 2.5% year - on - year increase. The overall furnace - opening rate dropped to 40%. The polysilicon market's sentiment fluctuated, silicon wafer production exceeded expectations, and the demand for 210RN was strong. Component inventory is expected to drop to about 30GW in November, and the photovoltaic industry is expected to enter a new supply - demand balance cycle [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of October 24th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 559,000 tons, a 3,000 - ton week - on - week decrease. The exchange's registered warehouse receipts decreased to 48,327 lots, equivalent to 242,000 tons [9]. Industry News - **South Korea's exports**: Despite the impact of US tariffs and holiday factors, South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of October increased. Semiconductor exports increased by 20.2%, while automobile exports decreased by 25%. The negotiation on the South Korea - US trade agreement is at a standstill, increasing the uncertainty of South Korea's future exports to the US [11]. - **Photovoltaic power station**: Under Document No. 136, the development rules of the photovoltaic industry have changed. The tendering scale of photovoltaic power station EPC decreased in the third quarter, but the awarding scale increased quarter - on - quarter. Chinese enterprises such as PowerChina and EnergyChina won large - scale overseas projects, and Zhengtai Energy won a 720MW distributed photovoltaic project [12]. Related Charts - The report presents multiple charts on industrial silicon production, exports, inventory, and the prices of related products, providing data support for the analysis [14][20][21]

行情回顾：本周，沪深300涨跌幅为2.04%，电子板块涨跌幅为3.6%，半导体行业涨跌幅为2.71%。细分 来看，半导体设备涨跌幅为1.31%，半导体材料和电子化学品涨跌幅分别为-0.76%和1.9%，集成电路封 测行业涨跌幅为0.08%，模拟芯片设计和数字芯片设计涨跌幅各自为1.27%和3.97%。本周半导体板块整 体依旧呈现稳步上涨的走势，整体来看，AI算力需求及"十五五"政策预期是核心驱动力。 半导体设备：半导体设备板块本周延续强劲表现，资金围绕"十五五"科技自立主线集中布局，头部设备 企业订单能见度持续提升。"十五五"规划重点聚焦关键核心技术领域的自主突破，设备是直接受益环节 之一。短期看，AI算力需求推动国内外逻辑与存储厂商扩产，刻蚀、薄膜沉积设备需求旺盛；长期 看，国产替代逻辑在"十五五"科技自强战略下更为稳固。 半导体材料&电子化学品：电子化学品板块表现活跃，光刻胶等子板块涨幅居前。"十五五"规划强调供 应链安全与自主可控，驱动国产材料验证导入进程加速。KrF/ArF光刻胶、CMP抛光液等高端产品成为 突破重点。HBM和先进逻辑芯片的产能扩张，直接拉动高端半导体前驱体、特种气体等材料的市场需 求 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the strong growth potential in the optical module market driven by the increasing demand for AI computing power, with companies like Zhongji Xuchuang seeing a rise in their 1.6T product output and optimistic about industry demand in 2026 and 2027 [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission indicates that over the next decade, China will focus on creating a high-tech industry, emphasizing the importance of efficient supply in computing power, algorithms, and data, as well as the implementation of major national technology tasks [1] - The recent market performance shows a significant increase in the technology sector, with the Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) experiencing a 4.9% rise and a trading volume increase of 128% on October 24, indicating a strengthening short-term trend [1] Group 2 - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) is characterized by cross-market diversification, focusing on strategic emerging industries, including sectors like renewable energy, photovoltaic, optical modules, semiconductors, and medical devices [3] - The ETF is designed to capture high-growth technology trends with a low investment threshold, allowing investors to participate in the market with less than 100 yuan, making it an accessible option for those looking to invest in China's top technology companies [3] - The emphasis on "new quality productivity" in the recent policy framework suggests that enhancing quality and efficiency in economic development will be a priority, with a focus on technological self-reliance and innovation [1][3]