Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is attributed to a combination of internal and external factors, with a notable influence from the US Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts [2][3][5]. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of August 28, the RMB to USD central parity rate was reported at 7.1063, marking a new high since November 6, 2024 [1]. - The RMB's recent strength is driven by three main factors: domestic economic performance, a significant decline in the US dollar, and the central bank's intervention to guide the RMB's market value [2]. - The central bank's adjustment of the RMB's midpoint has shifted from a neutral stance to a stronger position, with the deviation from the onshore market price increasing to 400-500 basis points [2]. Group 2: Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies - The US Federal Reserve Chairman's dovish signals regarding potential interest rate cuts have led to a weakening of the US dollar, which in turn supports the appreciation of the RMB [3][5]. - Following the Fed's signals, the US dollar index experienced a significant drop of nearly 1%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [4]. - Market expectations for two rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year have intensified, contributing to the downward pressure on the dollar [3][5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent rally in the domestic stock market, reaching a ten-year high, is expected to enhance the RMB's strength as it boosts investor sentiment and increases demand for RMB-denominated assets [9][10]. - The RMB is anticipated to continue fluctuating within a range in the short term, while medium to long-term trends suggest a stable appreciation due to strong domestic economic fundamentals and ongoing internationalization efforts [8][10]. - Factors such as stable economic growth, a favorable trade balance, and increased cross-border capital inflows are expected to provide support for the RMB exchange rate [9][10].

Group 1 - The onshore RMB against the USD opened higher at 7.1465, breaking the 7.15 mark, compared to the previous closing of 7.1622 [1] - The offshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1478 as of 9:30 AM [1] - The central parity rate of RMB against USD was adjusted up by 45 basis points to 7.1063 [2] Group 2 - The USD index showed a downward trend, reported at 98.1121 as of 9:30 AM [2] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is primarily driven by a weaker USD, along with positive domestic signals such as increased issuance of offshore central bank bills and a strengthening central parity rate [2] - If the stock market continues to perform well, it may provide additional support for the RMB exchange rate [2]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a slight decline of 0.04%, closing at 98.19, indicating mixed performance among non-US currencies [1] Currency Performance - The euro depreciated by 0.03% against the US dollar, trading at 1.1638 [1] - The British pound appreciated by 0.16% against the US dollar, reaching 1.3499 [1] - The Australian dollar increased by 0.17% against the US dollar, valued at 0.6506 [1] - The US dollar slightly decreased by 0.01% against the Japanese yen, trading at 147.42 [1] - The US dollar also fell by 0.12% against the Swiss franc, closing at 0.8024 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index experienced a slight increase on August 27, closing at 98.233, reflecting minor fluctuations against major currencies [1]. Currency Exchange Rates - The euro was exchanged at 1.1632 USD, down from 1.1644 USD the previous trading day [1]. - The British pound rose to 1.3497 USD, up from 1.3480 USD [1]. - The Japanese yen was valued at 147.39 JPY per USD, slightly up from 147.38 JPY [1]. - The Swiss franc was exchanged at 0.8025 CHF per USD, down from 0.8032 CHF [1]. - The Canadian dollar was valued at 1.3794 CAD per USD, down from 1.3835 CAD [1]. - The Swedish krona was exchanged at 9.5320 SEK per USD, down from 9.5590 SEK [1].

Core Points - The US dollar index experienced a slight increase on August 27, rising by 0.01% to close at 98.233 [1] Currency Exchange Rates - 1 Euro was exchanged for 1.1632 USD, down from 1.1644 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 British Pound was exchanged for 1.3497 USD, up from 1.3480 USD the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 147.39 Japanese Yen, up from 147.38 Yen the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 0.8025 Swiss Francs, down from 0.8032 Francs the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 1.3794 Canadian Dollars, down from 1.3835 Dollars the previous trading day [1] - 1 USD was exchanged for 9.5320 Swedish Krona, down from 9.5590 Krona the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of President Trump's actions on the U.S. dollar, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the implications of a non-independent monetary policy [1] Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - The dollar index is currently priced at 98.36, with a 0.12% increase from an opening price of 98.24 [1] - The dollar index faced resistance below 98.60 and found support above 98.05, indicating a potential for upward movement after a short-term decline [1] - If the dollar index stabilizes above 98.00 today, the upward target range could be between 98.50 and 98.80 [1] Group 2: Impact of Trump's Actions - Trump's actions to dismiss Director Cook have intensified pressure on the dollar, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the FOMC in September [1] - The situation draws parallels to Turkey's President Erdogan, who attempted to interfere with his central bank's policies, leading to a collapse of the Turkish lira [1] - While the U.S. economy may exhibit more resilience, the potential shift towards a non-independent monetary policy could negatively affect the dollar [1]

据证券日报，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预计，短期内人民币汇率还会处于偏强运行状态。长期来 看，国际方面，伴随美联储恢复降息以及关税政策对美国经济冲击逐步显现，美元指数还将承受一定下 行压力；但上半年美元跌幅巨大，后期也会有较强的抗跌韧性。国内方面，外部波动对我国出口的影响 或逐步显现，而逆周期调节政策加码将确保经济运行基本稳定，这方面有充足的政策空间。由此，接下 来人民币对美元汇率仍将以稳为主，持续升值或大幅贬值的风险都不大。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index decreased by 0.20% to 98.24, while most non-US currencies appreciated against the dollar [1] Currency Movements - The euro rose by 0.18% against the dollar, reaching 1.1642 [1] - The British pound increased by 0.17% to 1.3477 against the dollar [1] - The Australian dollar gained 0.17%, trading at 0.6495 against the dollar [1] - The Japanese yen depreciated by 0.21%, with the dollar trading at 147.4285 yen [1] - The Canadian dollar fell by 0.15%, with the dollar at 1.3839 Canadian dollars [1] - The Swiss franc decreased by 0.29%, with the dollar at 0.8034 Swiss francs [1]

Group 1 - The main factor driving the rise in gold prices is the decline of the US dollar index, influenced by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting [1] - Gold prices increased from a low of $3321 to a high of $3378 last week, and continued to rise, reaching $3386, approaching the $3400 mark [1] - President Trump is exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to implement rapid interest rate cuts, which could lead to a weaker dollar index and potential economic challenges [1] Group 2 - The US core CPI year-on-year rate for July was 3.1%, above the previous value of 2.9%, indicating inflation concerns that could complicate the Fed's decision to cut rates [2] - If the Fed resumes rate cuts, it may lead to significant declines in the dollar index, benefiting gold and silver prices as well as non-US currencies [2] Group 3 - From April 22 to the present, gold has formed a converging triangle structure, with multiple peaks and troughs indicating a potential upward breakout [4] - Given the weak dollar index and ongoing tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve, gold is likely to gain upward momentum, with a high probability of breaking through the upper boundary of the converging triangle [4]

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...