1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall sentiment in the有色金属 market is influenced by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, US economic data, and overseas supply disruptions. Different metals have varying price trends and influencing factors, and short - term price movements are expected to be affected by a combination of macro - factors and industry - specific fundamentals [4][7][10][12]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: On Friday, the LME 3M copper contract rose 1.22% to $11,870/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract reached 93,560 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 3,875 tons to 160,400 tons. The domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 46,000 tons. The domestic copper spot import loss was about 1,200 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap copper price difference widened [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Fed's loose monetary policy and the easing of concerns about the US stock AI bubble have a positive impact on sentiment. The copper ore supply remains tight, and the annual long - term contract benchmark is slightly higher than expected. The apparent consumption of refined copper in November was lower than expected, increasing the resistance to upward price movement. However, with less scrap copper substitution, the supply surplus pressure is not large. The short - term price is expected to remain high and volatile. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 92,000 - 94,600 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is 11,600 - 12,200 dollars/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Overseas supply disruptions pushed LME aluminum up, with the Friday closing price rising 1.32% to $2,955/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract reaching 22,245 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased by 29,000 to 654,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased to 76,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories increased slightly, and aluminum rod inventories decreased [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Global aluminum inventories continue to decline and are at relatively low levels compared to the same period in previous years. Coupled with overseas supply disruptions and a positive commodity atmosphere, aluminum prices are strongly supported. However, Mexico's increase in some aluminum tariffs and the off - season in the aluminum downstream industry pose pressure. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and accumulate momentum, with a rising center. The operating range of the SHFE aluminum main contract is 22,000 - 22,400 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M aluminum is 2,900 - 2,980 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the SHFE lead index rose 0.55% to 16,879 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead rose $16.5 to $1,973.5/ton. The domestic social lead inventories decreased by 420 tons to 1,950 tons [9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, and the lead concentrate processing fee has remained flat. The operating rate of primary lead smelters has increased, while the operating rate of secondary lead has decreased marginally, and the operating rate of battery enterprises has remained stable. The domestic lead ingot supply has tightened marginally, and the visible inventory has remained relatively low. After the release of short - term macro - risks, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is positive. The current lead price is at the lower end of the oscillation range, and it is expected to be strong in the wide - range in the short term [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the SHFE zinc index rose 0.19% to 23,081 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc rose $8.5 to $3,073/ton. The domestic social zinc inventories decreased by 350 tons to 12,220 tons [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc concentrate has increased, and zinc concentrate TC has stopped falling and stabilized. The shortage of domestic zinc ore is expected to ease marginally. The LME zinc ingot inventory has increased, and the LME zinc monthly spread has returned to a Contango structure. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory has continued to decline, and the spot basis has increased. After the release of short - term macro - risks, the sentiment in the non - ferrous market is positive. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the medium term but may have an upward impulse in the short term due to macro - sentiment [12][13]. Tin - **Market Information**: On December 19, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 343,040 yuan/ton, up 2.59%. The operating rate of tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi is high and stable but lacks upward momentum. The demand for tin solder enterprises is stable, but the high tin price has suppressed downstream purchasing willingness, and the spot trading atmosphere is dull [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the short - term tin market demand is weak and the supply is expected to improve, the downstream inventory is low, and the bargaining power is limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk preference. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is 39,000 - 43,000 dollars/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the nickel price rebounded significantly, with the SHFE nickel main contract closing at 117,180 yuan/ton, up 2.84%. The nickel ore price remained stable, and the nickel iron price weakened again [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large. The nickel iron price has slightly declined, while the refined nickel price has dropped significantly. The refined nickel premium has reached the support level. It is necessary to wait for the nickel iron price to further decline to test the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical production line. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The short - term operating range of the SHFE nickel price is 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M nickel contract is 13,000 - 15,500 dollars/ton [17][18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Last Friday, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 105,069 yuan, up 2.74% from the previous working day and 11.10% for the week [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply recovery expectation has been falsified, and the bears are under pressure. The mid - term fundamentals are controversial, but the optimistic expectation is stronger. The long - position trend on the futures market has not ended. The lithium carbonate position is still high, and the intraday price fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the GZCE lithium carbonate main contract is 108,600 - 117,200 yuan/ton [21]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On December 19, 2025, the alumina index fell 2.51% to 2,568 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan/ton to 2,655 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the rainy season, the shipping from Guinea is gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. The ore price is expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent production reduction expectation is increasing. The overall non - ferrous sector is strong, and the cost - performance of short - selling is not high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,400 - 2,700 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,720 yuan/ton, up 2.42%. The social inventory decreased to 1.0421 million tons, a 2.01% decrease from the previous period [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall trading atmosphere in the stainless - steel spot market is light, and the low - price warehouse receipt resources are actively traded, driving the continuous decline in social inventory. The market demand is mainly for rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the acceptance of high - price resources is generally low. In the short term, the stainless - steel price is expected to continue to oscillate and bottom out, with limited upward space [27]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: On Friday, the cast aluminum alloy price continued to rise, with the main AD2602 contract closing at 21,235 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. The trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts slightly decreased [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of the cast aluminum alloy is relatively firm, and the supply - side disruptions continue, providing strong support for the price. However, the demand is volatile, and the delivery pressure forms an upper - limit suppression. The short - term price of the cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate within a range [30].

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [2] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with stable production levels in the polyester industry, maintaining an operating rate of 86.9% [2][3] - Analysts suggest that despite expectations of weakening terminal demand, the stable production and high maintenance rates in PTA support a positive market outlook [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future prices, as Goldman Sachs predicts gold to reach 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [4] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on prices [4] - The core factors influencing gold prices include the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macroeconomic support for gold's upward trend [5] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and total unemployed persons reaching approximately 7.83 million [6][7] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while federal government jobs saw a significant decline [6] - Analysts indicate that the labor market's weakening signals may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain a cautious stance on future rate cuts [6][7] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the previous month's 3%, but the data is viewed with caution due to collection issues stemming from a government shutdown [8][9] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend given the data's limitations [8][9] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [9][10] Group 6: Sector-Specific Insights - In the methanol sector, supply is expected to tighten in the first half of the year, but increased imports and weak demand may lead to a shift towards oversupply in the latter half of 2026 [11] - The coking coal market is seeing a reduction in supply due to high inventory levels and weak demand, with a significant decrease in inventory observed [11] - The aluminum market remains under pressure from oversupply, while the agricultural sector, particularly soybean meal, is facing downward price adjustments due to disappointing export progress [11]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The overall futures market experienced fluctuations with a divergence in performance across sectors during the week of December 15 to December 19, with energy and chemical sectors performing well while agricultural products generally declined [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil decreased by 0.50% and crude oil fell by 2.66%, while the black series saw coking coal increase by 9.02% and iron ore rise by 2.28% [1] - Precious metals maintained strength with gold rising by 1.01% and silver increasing by 3.26%, while agricultural products like eggs and palm oil saw declines of 1.58% and 3.19% respectively [1] Group 2: Polyester Market Dynamics - PX and PTA futures prices surged, reaching new highs not seen in three months, with PX hitting a peak since March and PTA surpassing 4900 yuan/ton [3] - The PTA market is experiencing a de-stocking trend, with a stable supply-demand balance and expectations of limited inventory pressure, supporting price increases [3][4] - The polyester industry maintained a weekly output of 155.72 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 86.9%, indicating stable supply conditions [3] Group 3: Gold Market Outlook - Gold prices are fluctuating near historical highs, with optimistic market expectations for future price increases, as Goldman Sachs predicts a rise to 4900 USD/oz by 2026 [5] - Global gold supply increased by 3% year-on-year to 1313 tons in Q3, while demand surged, leading to upward pressure on gold prices [5] - The core factor influencing gold prices is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with recent rate cuts providing macro support for gold price increases [6] Group 4: U.S. Labor Market Insights - The U.S. labor market showed mixed signals, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since October 2021, and a total of 7.83 million unemployed individuals [8][9] - Non-farm payrolls added 64,000 jobs in November, primarily in healthcare, construction, and social assistance, while transportation and federal government jobs decreased [8] - The labor force participation rate increased to 62.5%, indicating a return of residents to the labor market, although the unemployment rate still rose due to challenges in job placement [9] Group 5: Inflation Data and Economic Implications - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year in November, lower than the 3% increase in September, but the data is viewed cautiously due to issues arising from a government shutdown [10][11] - The core CPI also increased by 2.6%, but economists remain skeptical about the sustainability of this trend due to data collection challenges [10] - The Federal Reserve faces complex decisions balancing price stability and full employment, with future policy directions likely to be sensitive to upcoming economic data [11]

在美国政府结束"停摆"后，通胀数据意外低于预期。 据央视新闻报道，美国劳工部12月18日发布的数据显示，今年11月美国消费者价格指数 （CPI）同比上涨2.7%，低于9月的3%。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，11月核心消费者 价格指数同比上涨2.6%。 明年1月美联储降息的可能性仍然较低，但交易员已开始上调明年3月降息预期。芝商所美联储 观察工具显示，明年3月降息概率为60%，高于此前一天的约50%。 记者丨吴斌 编辑丨张星 题：首先，因为政府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据，11月CPI只有同比数 据，没有环比数据。 其次，由于政府停摆11月14日才结束，数据收集工作滞后，部分价格调查、样本采集和行政数 据输入在时间上存在滞后或集中补报，一些服务类、政府相关支出和监管价格的更新可能被推 迟或以估算值替代。例如，10—11月居住CPI环比均值接近0%，而前几个月环比增速在0.2% —0.3%，出现明显的误差，表明在部分数据缺失的情况下，劳工部在技术处理上的问题令数 据存在失真。 尽管这份因政府停摆而推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但考虑到报告的编制存在问 题，经济学家持谨慎态度，这一积极 ...

以下文章来源于中国经营报 ，作者郝亚娟 夏欣 中国经营报 . 《中国经营报》由《中国经营报》社有限公司出版，与中国企业同步成长，对话商业领袖，传播商业理 想，服务商业人群，掌控中国商界绝对话语权。 2025年，在美联储货币政策路径预期不断调整的背景下，国际金价经历了多轮高位震荡调整。 随着美联储年末最后一次议息会议落地，现货黄金再次站上4300美元/盎司。 展望2026年，分析人士指出，黄金市场预计将进入多重力量交织、动态平衡的新阶段。一方面，地 缘经济不确定性、美元走势趋弱以及央行与投资者的结构性需求将继续支撑金价；另一方面，经济 复苏前景、利率周期变化等因素也可能形成一定压力。专家普遍认为，全球央行持续购金已成为打 破传统供需平衡的关键变量，而美联储货币政策转向宽松预计将进一步利好黄金。长期来看，美元 购买力变化、央行储备行为及地缘政治风险仍是影响金价的核心因素。 01 美联储大概率继续降息 12月18日，现货黄金最高触及4342.65美元/盎司。 北京时间12月11日，美联储公布本年度最后一次利率决议，继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，美联储 再宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50% ...

黄金价格失守关键点位，投资窗口再度开启？ 最近，黄金市场的热度再次被推高，国内金价报到每克976元，沪金期货一度冲上982.92元的高点；国际市场上，金价也站稳在每盎司4371.4美元附近，从年 初算起，黄金价格累计上涨已超过60%，市场成交明显放大，多空资金在高位展开激烈拉锯。 上海黄金交易所的报价屏幕上，AU9999黄金价格定格在976元/克，距离"千元关口"仅差一步，期货市场的走势更为剧烈，价格在高位上下反复震荡，全天 成交量突破21万手，大量资金正在这个位置完成换手，有人继续追涨，也有人选择获利离场。 国际市场同样不平静，纽约黄金期货价格收在4371.4美元，单日小幅上涨，美元持续走弱，是推动这一轮上涨的重要原因之一，美元指数较年初已下跌接近 一成，使得以美元计价的黄金显得更具吸引力，这轮行情自2024年延续至今，金价多次刷新历史高点，涨势时间之长，在近年并不多见。 全球规模最大的黄金ETF，持仓量在10月达到高点后开始小幅回落，说明部分机构投资者正在趁高位减仓，从技术图形来看，金价的上涨动能有所减弱，短 期存在调整压力。 支撑金价长期走高的力量，首先来自各国央行持续买入黄金，数据显示，央行已连续13 ...

这波狂欢背后，是美联储今年已经连续三次降息打下的基础。12月初，美联储刚把基准利率再砍25个基点，降到3.5%—3.75%的区间。自9月以来，累计 降息幅度达到75个基点，主席鲍威尔嘴上说"政策不是预设的"，但市场听出了弦外之音——经济要是撑不住，美联储随时可能出手。 投资者对明年降息的预期直接烧开了锅。芝商所的FedWatch工具显示，3月降息概率从数据公布前的53.9%猛跳到60%，虽然1月降息概率还只有26.6%， 但交易员已经迫不及待地押注明年两轮降息。花旗集团预测明年1月、3月和9月各降一次；高盛和富国银行则押注3月和6月两次降息；摩根大通和瑞银却 唱反调，觉得明年顶多降一次。 美国11月通胀数据刚刚出炉，2.7%的涨幅让所有人大吃一惊——这不仅是2021年以来的最低水平，还远低于市场预期的3.1%。这份数据因为联邦政府停 摆导致10月份数据完全缺失，被经济学家质疑"失真"，可投资者却像捡到宝一样，瞬间把美股推上了新高。 当地时间12月18日，美国劳工部公布的报告显示，11月消费者价格指数同比上涨2.7%，而市场原本预测是3.1%。剔除食品和能源价格的核心CPI更是降到 2.6%，也低于3%的预期， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the US dollar index is likely entering a prolonged downtrend phase, with significant declines expected in the future [3][10] - Historical analysis indicates that the highest and lowest points of the dollar index have shown a gradual downward trend over three long cycles since 1971, suggesting a weakening of the US economic fundamentals relative to other developed countries [4][10] - The duration of the downtrends in the dollar index has been relatively consistent, averaging around 7-8 years, while the uptrends have been extending, indicating a "short bear, long bull" phenomenon in the dollar index cycles [4][10] Group 2 - The relationship between the dollar index and US interest rates has shown a decreasing correlation in the most recent cycle, with instances of the dollar index declining despite stable or fluctuating interest rates [5][10] - The dollar index has already decreased by 15.1% from September 2022 to June 2025, and the current downtrend may last for another 6-7 years, potentially reaching a low below 71.3 [3][10] - The outlook for the dollar index in 2026 suggests a continued downward trend, with limited declines due to the weak economic fundamentals in the Eurozone and uncertainties surrounding the Japanese yen [12][16][17] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue lowering interest rates in 2026, influenced by a deteriorating labor market and manageable inflation, which may further impact the dollar index [13][10] - Global investor sentiment towards US dollar assets has shifted, contributing to simultaneous declines in US stocks, bonds, and the dollar index, indicating a potential ongoing reduction in confidence in US Treasury securities [15][10] - The economic performance of the Eurozone and Japan is projected to remain weak, which may limit the extent of the dollar index's decline, as the Eurozone's GDP growth is forecasted to be significantly lower than that of the US [16][17]

米兰是美联储内部最坚定支持降息的官员之一。在上周的美联储会议上，他投下反对票，主张降息50个 基点，而大多数同僚倾向于更小幅的25个基点降息。他的美联储任期将于1月31日结束。 截至发稿，纽约期银收涨3.34%，报67.395美元/盎司，本周累计上涨8.55%。现货白银价格收涨2.26%， 报67.04美元/盎司。 早上好，先来关注下重要消息。 现货白银价格盘中突破67美元/盎司 今天凌晨，现货白银价格突破67美元/盎司，再创历史新高，日内涨2.38%。纽约期银日内涨幅达 3.00%。 KCM Trade首席市场分析师Tim Waterer表示："较温和的通胀数据对黄金和白银来说有点像'双刃剑'，它 有助于证明美联储'鸽'派轨迹的合理性，但也意味着它们作为通胀对冲工具的吸引力有所下降。" 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周五重申，由于通胀已降温，且货币政策需要抵消就业市场风险，美联储应降 息。 "就业市场正在放缓，如果继续沿着这个方向发展，而我们未能充分调整政策加以遏制，到2027年我们 将陷入困境。"米兰说。 2026年金价趋势性上涨动力仍在 沃勒在美联储主席面试中表现"出色" 昨日，据媒体报道，特朗普正在推进美联储 ...

明年1月美联储降息的可能性仍然较低，但交易员已开始上调明年3月降息预期。芝商所美联储观察工具 显示，明年3月降息概率为60%，高于此前一天的约50%。 尽管这份因政府停摆而推迟发布的报告显示物价压力有所缓和，但考虑到报告的编制存在问题，经济学 家持谨慎态度，这一积极变化并不意味着长期高于美联储2%目标的物价压力已出现持续性缓解。 前路依旧迷雾重重，美联储货币政策需要更多数据来指引方向。 意外"跳水" 在通胀数据公布后，下一任美联储主席的热门人选之一白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特表示赞 赏。"我并不是说我们已经可以宣布在价格问题上取得胜利，但这份CPI报告好得令人震惊。" 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比是上周美联储议息会议上对降息决定投出反对票（主张维持利率不变）的两位 官员之一。他表示，最新公布的通胀数据"良好"，如果这一趋势持续，可能为明年进行更多的降息打开 大门。 不过，整体而言，这份意外的通胀数据参考价值有限。东吴证券首席经济学家芦哲对21世纪经济报道记 者分析称，11月CPI和核心CPI均大幅低于预期。美国11月CPI在技术层面面临两个问题：首先，因为政 府停摆，10月数据未采集，因此没有10月CPI数据 ...