证券研究报告 2026 年 01 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 医疗服务行业周报 政策力促银发经济升级，两大方向直接受益 --医疗服务行业周报 1.12-1.16 相关研究： 核心要点： 本周医药生物下跌 0.68%，涨跌幅排名位列申万一级行业第 19 位 根据 Wind 数据，本周申万一级行业医药生物下跌 0.68%，涨幅排名位列申 万 31 个一级行业第 19 位。沪深 300 指数下跌 0.57%，医药跑输沪深 300 指数 0.11 个百分点。申万医药生物二级子行业医疗服务 II 报收 7048.32 点，上涨 3.29%；中药 II 报收 6414.65 点，下跌 1.00%；化学制药Ⅱ报收 13656.41 点，下跌 2.40%；生物制品Ⅱ报收 6506.32 点，下跌 1.21%；医 药商业Ⅱ报收 5587.64 点，下跌 2.33%；医疗器械 II 报收 6896.75 点，下 跌 0.22%。 根据 Wind 数据，从医疗服务板块公司的表现来看，表现居前的公司有： 美年健康（+25.0%）、迪安诊断（+16.3%）、泓博医药（+13.0%）、兰卫医 学（+12.2%）、诺思格（+1 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is entering a moderately aging society, with the elderly population expected to exceed 390 million in the coming years, leading to an upgrade in elderly education that focuses on fulfilling their spiritual needs and learning desires, transforming it into a new stage for many seniors to expand social connections and realize their value [1] Group 1: Elderly Education Development - The National Open University has established the National Elderly University as a platform for sharing educational resources and public services, which has seen a significant increase in enrollment and course offerings, including traditional and modern subjects [11][13] - The elderly education sector is transitioning from meeting basic learning needs to providing diverse and high-quality learning services, with a notable increase in enrollment numbers, such as 5,165 enrollments in the Beijing campus for 2025 [11][19] - Community-based elderly education initiatives, such as the "Silver Age Classroom" in Guizhou, have been successful in attracting over 7,000 elderly residents, demonstrating the effectiveness of localized learning opportunities [15][17] Group 2: Innovative Learning Approaches - The concept of "study tours" for the elderly is gaining popularity, integrating deep experiences, cultural insights, and social interactions into educational travel, moving beyond traditional classroom settings [20][26] - The National Elderly University has launched various study tour projects, including photography and pottery, to enrich the learning experience while traveling [20][24] - The elderly study tour model not only enhances educational engagement but also stimulates related industries such as transportation and accommodation, contributing to the silver economy [26][29] Group 3: Personal Stories and Impact - Personal stories, such as that of 85-year-old Lian Suhua and her daughter Zhou Xiaoling, highlight the intergenerational learning experience and the positive impact of education on their lives, fostering closer family bonds and enhancing quality of life [2][4] - The journey of Zhao Juan, who transitioned from a student to a teacher, exemplifies how elderly individuals can leverage their skills and passions to create new opportunities and contribute to their communities [5][7] - Liu Xuedong's use of AI technology to document family history illustrates how learning can empower seniors to engage with their past and share their stories, enriching their lives and those of future generations [8]

Group 1 - The core document released by multiple government departments aims to cultivate and activate the elderly care service operators, promoting structural reforms in the supply side of elderly care services and enhancing the silver economy [1] - The elderly care service operators are essential for providing services, while the elderly are the consumers, creating a mutually beneficial relationship [2] - The document emphasizes the importance of protecting the legal rights of both elderly consumers and service operators to ensure sustainable development and healthy competition in the sector [2] Group 2 - The new measures include support for stable operations in terms of land, duration, and funding, helping operators develop long-term plans and enhance investment confidence [3] - The initiative aims to create a market-oriented elderly meal service network, with a focus on sustainability and accessibility, achieving full coverage in urban areas [3] - The number of elderly meal service points has increased significantly, with a rise from 184 to 333 primary meal service locations [3] Group 3 - Recent policies have been introduced to expand service consumption, with a focus on elderly care as a foundational service sector [4] - By 2025, 210 pilot areas are expected to establish 6,255 convenience living circles, covering 150.3 million commercial outlets related to elderly care and domestic services [5] - The government is promoting various activities to stimulate elderly service consumption, including the establishment of special zones at trade fairs for elderly care products and services [5] Group 4 - The new measures propose 14 specific initiatives across five areas, including brand development, market supply-demand matching, technological empowerment, environmental optimization, and increased support for resources [7] - The integration of technology in elderly care services is seen as a key driver for improving service efficiency and quality, transitioning from traditional care to smart care solutions [8] - The focus on developing elderly care robots and other assistive technologies aims to address the pain points in elderly living, enhancing the quality of life for seniors [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents ten major predictions for the Chinese economy in 2025, emphasizing the emergence of a new cycle and era, the global interest rate reduction, the fourth technological revolution, and the importance of adapting to new trends and opportunities in various sectors [2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11]. Group 1: New Economic Cycle and Global Trends - A new economic cycle and era are emerging, encouraging adaptation to new trends and opportunities [2][3]. - The global economy is entering a new interest rate reduction cycle, with significant implications for monetary policy and economic growth [3][40]. - The return of Trump to the White House (Trump 2.0) is expected to create uncertainties, including inflation and trade tensions, impacting global economic dynamics [3][42][44]. Group 2: Technological Revolution - The fourth technological revolution is underway, with breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and biomanufacturing [4][55][57]. - AI is expected to experience explosive growth, with applications in image recognition, humanoid robots, AI assistants, and consumer electronics [6][11]. - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with potential applications in logistics and urban management, creating a multi-trillion market [8][59]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Domestic Growth - China is initiating macroeconomic easing to boost confidence and economic growth, focusing on new infrastructure and productivity [5][73]. - The government is implementing policies to stabilize the real estate market and promote consumption, with a focus on enhancing the business environment for private enterprises [78][87]. - The emphasis on new infrastructure includes advancements in new energy systems, digital economy, and artificial intelligence, positioning China for future growth [81][84]. Group 4: Globalization and Market Expansion - Chinese enterprises are shifting from export to global expansion, tapping into larger international markets [6][92]. - The rise of successful Chinese companies in overseas markets, such as SHEIN and TikTok, illustrates the potential for growth beyond domestic borders [96][111]. - Southeast Asia is identified as a key target for Chinese companies due to its growing market and favorable conditions for investment [101]. Group 5: Aging Population and Consumer Trends - The aging population presents opportunities in the silver economy, emphasizing the need for policies to boost birth rates and early childhood development [11]. - Consumer behavior is shifting towards interest-based spending, with cultural consumption and local trends gaining popularity among younger demographics [9][30].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and seven other departments have issued measures to promote the development of the silver economy, focusing on the integration of technology in elderly care services [1][2] - The elderly care robot market is experiencing rapid growth, with over 600 related patents filed in China as of January 13, and a projected 48.33% increase in patent applications by 2025 [1][3] Group 1: Policy and Market Development - The new measures encourage technological innovation in elderly care, emphasizing the use of big data, cloud computing, and AI for health monitoring and personalized services [2] - Support is provided for the integration of smart elderly care devices and rehabilitation robots into care institutions, enhancing user experience through shared services and product trials [2] - The potential market demand for companion robots among the elderly in China is estimated at approximately 420 billion yuan [3] Group 2: Industry Growth and Trends - As of January 13, there are 552,500 existing companies in the silver economy sector, with over 30% located in East China [4][5] - The registration of silver economy-related companies has consistently exceeded 80,000 annually for three consecutive years, with a 4.24% year-on-year increase projected for 2025 [5] - The Shanghai Civil Affairs Bureau has introduced a community rental service directory for rehabilitation aids, including 24 new smart devices, significantly lowering the cost barrier for elderly users [4]

Group 1 - The demand for elderly care services in Hong Kong is increasing due to an aging population, with technology playing a crucial role in enhancing the quality of life for seniors [2] - The 2025 Elderly Technology Expo and Summit featured over 270 exhibitors showcasing nearly 1,000 innovative products and applications aimed at elderly care, attracting more than 37,000 attendees [2] - The expo's theme was "Silver-haired Vitality: Connecting Innovation and Technology," featuring three main exhibition halls focused on AI and smart elderly care solutions [2] Group 2 - Innovative solutions presented at the expo included AI voice reconstruction for aphasia patients, a fall detection warning system using millimeter-wave radar, and cognitive care robots for emotional support [3] - The "No-Action Elderly Care" system by Hong Kong Tianyu Health Technology Group received significant attention for its personalized analysis of elderly habits and vital signs, aimed at improving health management [3] - The "Silver-haired Summit" gathered over 300 professionals from various sectors to discuss the development prospects of the elderly technology economy and share cross-border cooperation experiences [3] Group 3 - The Hong Kong government has established a "Silver Economy Working Group" and announced 30 measures to promote the silver economy, presenting significant new opportunities for the sector [4] - The Elderly Technology Expo and Summit, co-hosted by the Hong Kong government and the Hong Kong Council of Social Service, is the largest public education event on elderly technology in Hong Kong, attracting a total of 250,000 visitors since its inception in 2017 [4] - The Hong Kong Science Park aims to leverage the advantages in elderly technology and innovation to foster tech enterprises and deepen cooperation within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area [4]

中经记者 张漫游 北京报道 近年来，金融机构主动响应人口老龄化国家战略，从线下硬件设施升级到线上数字服务优化，从单一产 品供给到多元生态构建，全方位推进适老化改造实践。 高鹏飞指出，当前，金融机构的适老化改造不仅体现为软硬件升级，更延伸至服务内容。针对老年人金 融风险防范意识相对薄弱的特点，不少金融机构通过走进社区、举办讲座等方式，普及防范电信诈骗、 识别非法集资等知识。在销售环节加强风险提示和过程管理，帮助老年群体树立理性投资观念。 如建设银行（601939.SH）在全国设置的超200家"健养安"养老金融特色网点，定期举办养老金融课堂， 汇聚养老规划师团队、养老领域专家、保险理财等专业人士，展开养老规划、财富管理、消保防诈等系 列讲座。同时，建设银行也深入周边企业，提供年金之类的养老专属服务，并整合网点周边资源，构建 融合生活消费、健康医疗的全方位养老综合生态。 从"有"到"优" 当前，随着众多新政的落地实施，金融机构适老化改造正迎来从"有没有"向"好不好"的转型期，如何破 解服务痛点、深化科技赋能、构建协同生态，成为行业高质量发展的重要课题。 2026年1月13日，民政部召开新闻发布会，介绍《关于培育养老 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the steady growth of the consumer market in Inner Mongolia, with a retail sales total of 488.06 billion yuan from January to November 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, surpassing the national average by 1.3 percentage points, placing it among the top ten in the country for growth rate [1][4] - The implementation of the old-for-new policy has shown significant results, with 4.228 million items exchanged, supported by 6.18 billion yuan in subsidies, leading to approximately 64 billion yuan in consumption [1] - A series of over 5,400 promotional activities have been conducted, generating sales exceeding 40 billion yuan, alongside the distribution of various consumption vouchers totaling 500 million yuan, which have collectively driven consumption by around 40 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The high-end consumer supply has effectively increased, with the successful introduction of 72 flagship stores, including brands like MixC and Olé Supermarket, addressing the lack of high-end shopping centers in Inner Mongolia [1] - The commercial circulation system is continuously improving, with Hohhot being selected as a pilot city for new consumption formats and modern commercial circulation, aiming to secure 600 million yuan in central service industry special funds [3] - The promotion of specialty products has yielded notable results, with over 250 local agricultural enterprises participating in the 2025 National Agricultural Products Production and Marketing Conference, resulting in on-site contracts exceeding 2 billion yuan [3] Group 3 - E-commerce is thriving, with a total of 1.959 million live broadcasts conducted in 2025, achieving a network retail sales figure of 12.02 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [4] - The Inner Mongolia Commerce Department plans to continue special actions to boost consumption in 2026, promoting initiatives like "Buy in China" and "Taste Inner Mongolia" to further expand and upgrade the consumer market [4]

Core Insights - The first silver economy store in Shanghai has opened, quickly becoming a popular destination for the elderly demographic, highlighting the growing importance of the silver economy in Shanghai's high-quality economic development [1] - The store features an immersive shopping experience that integrates home, technology, and health products, achieving sales of over 300,000 yuan (approximately 30 million) within two weeks of opening, with additional service orders exceeding 550,000 yuan (approximately 55 million) [1][2] - The business model of the silver store includes multiple revenue streams such as product sales, experiential services, and elderly-friendly renovation consultations, which complicates tax processing [1][2] Taxation and Support - The revenue structure of the silver store is a composite of "services + goods + rentals," leading to complex tax accounting and invoice management, necessitating higher accuracy and timeliness in tax processing [2] - The local tax authority is leveraging big data to identify taxable items under mixed operations and is providing a "policy checklist" to help businesses navigate tax regulations and mitigate risks [2] - In a broader context, the Tian Di Health City in Qingpu District represents a comprehensive elderly care community, integrating various services and requiring specialized tax support for its complex operations [4] - The local tax bureau is actively providing guidance on tax matters, including VAT exemptions and corporate income tax filings, to assist businesses in standardizing their financial processes [4] - The tax department is also offering personalized assistance to families of elderly residents regarding individual income tax deductions for elderly care, ensuring effective delivery of tax services [4]

Core Insights - The retail market in Wuhan showed vitality in 2025, characterized by active adjustments from existing operators, impressive performance in new project leasing, and the restaurant industry becoming the main driver for new store openings [1][3]. Retail Market Overview - In 2025, three major projects opened in Wuhan's core commercial areas, adding approximately 328,000 square meters of quality retail space, increasing the total retail market stock to 4,839,000 square meters [1]. - The average rent for first-floor spaces was 389.6 yuan per square meter per month, a year-on-year decrease of 11.4%, while the vacancy rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 13.9% [3]. - The net absorption in the core commercial area reached 373,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, indicating that existing operators were actively adjusting and filling vacancies [3]. Restaurant Industry Dynamics - The restaurant sector became the main force in new store openings, accounting for 41% of the total new openings in the core commercial area [3]. - Within the restaurant sector, specialty dining accounted for 44.9% of new openings, with strong expansion intentions from regional cuisine brands [3]. - The share of specialty dining has significantly decreased from 73.2% in 2021 to the current 44.9%, while the shares of snacks, desserts, and casual dining have rapidly increased, reflecting a shift towards more diverse consumer preferences [3]. Future Outlook - The structural transformation in the restaurant market reflects the broader upgrade in urban consumption, with a focus on enhancing consumer vitality as a key economic development strategy [4]. - Over the next four years, approximately 753,000 square meters of quality retail space is expected to be added in Wuhan, primarily in the Optics Valley area, which will enhance the regional commercial ecosystem [4]. - The ongoing release of new commercial supply and the deepening of the "Four First Economy" will further unlock consumer potential and optimize the commercial ecosystem in Wuhan [4].