2025年12月23日，美国经济分析局发布延后数据，显示第三季度国内生产总值按年率计算增长4.3%，较第二季度的3.8%进一步提速，创下两年来的最快增 速。这一数据超出市场预期，主要得益于消费支出增长3.5%、企业投资扩大以及贸易政策的稳定。与此同时，核心个人消费支出通胀率升至2.9%，显示经 济在保持增长的同时面临一定的通胀压力。 此次数据因政府停摆影响推迟发布，仅进行两次估算，最终修订数据预计于2026年1月22日公布。美联储对此表示，美国经济预计在2026年实现温和反弹， 并计划仅再降息一次。在这一宏观经济背景下，中国跨境卖家如何把握美国市场的增长机遇，成为亟待探讨的议题。本文将深入分析美国经济数据背后的趋 势、对中国卖家的具体影响，并提供切实可行的策略建议。 一、美国经济现状与政策背景解读 1.1 2025年第三季度经济数据深度分析 美国2025年第三季度GDP增长达到4.3%，不仅高于前一季度的3.8%，也远超市场普遍预期的3.9%-4.0%区间。这是自2023年以来的最高增速，标志着美国经 济在经历了一段时间的温和增长后，进入了一个加速复苏阶段。增长的主要驱动力来自以下三个方面： 与此同时，核心P ...

随着60后、70后群体逐步迈入退休生活，"新银发族"对于自我、品质、价值实现的追求，正在构筑起一 个涵盖健康、文娱、科技、时尚的数十万亿级新消费市场。他们以充沛的活力、可观的财富和全新的生 活态度，打破对老龄群体"负担""拖累"等刻板印象，推动"银发经济"从边缘走向经济舞台的中央。 "十五五"规划建议提出，积极应对人口老龄化，优化基本养老服务供给。民政部部长陆治原日前接受采 访时表示，积极促进银发经济发展，推动出台银发经济高质量发展支持措施。 我国正慢慢步入人口老龄化社会。中国人口与发展研究中心预测，"十五五"时期我国老年人口将快速增 长，规模将从当前的约3.1亿人增加到2030年的3.9亿人。曾经被视为"夕阳议题"的老年消费市场，正在 以"朝阳产业"的姿态，重构中国经济的边界与内涵。 蓝海市场： 30万亿规模的"朝阳产业" 银发经济，作为向老年人提供产品或服务，以及为老龄阶段做准备等一系列经济活动的总和，其未来发 展的确定性，根植于中国社会人口结构的深刻变化中。 2024年1月，国务院办公厅印发《关于发展银发经济促进老年人福祉的意见》，成为我国首个以"银发经 济"命名的政策文件。该意见要求加快银发经济规模化 ...

从"试着用"到"放心用"，找准痛点是关键。在与辽阳一家做履带传送的本土公司合作时，苏言与对 方"拉锯"了十几次，去工厂蹲点，记录传送板速度、老师傅搬用手姿、搬运车的来回频次等，针对企业 传送点位不准、人力少等问题，设计出5G传感技术搭配机械臂的"履带板搬运"智能体。 "我们的方案比较灵活，这一套智能体成本不到3万元，后续还可以根据企业的其他需求持续'加 餐'。"苏言说，有扎实的技术服务，才能让企业看到数字化改造的预期效果。目前，辽阳申汀已拥有自 主知识产权25项、发明专利1项、实用新型专利13项，帮助百余家企业解决了转型难题。 "我们就像一家'煎饼果子'式的科技公司，不做标准化大餐，而是帮助有想法的本土企业，以较低 成本找到最适合自己的数字化转型路径，真正解决实际问题。"苏言笑言，"未来，我们将布局具身智 能、低空经济等领域，聚焦研发智能农业机器人、健康监测设备等产品，让更多企业在家门口就能享受 到科技创新成果。" 辽阳申汀积极探索建立企业数字化转型服务生态，寻找适合中小企业的转型方案。对于中小企业数 字化转型缺乏针对性产品研发服务的痛点，辽阳申汀在研发层面，将企业对产品的诉求通过在线方式直 达产品线，打造配 ...

Core Insights - The direct selling model is aligning well with changing consumer demands and trends, reshaping the industry's future [1] - The Chinese consumption market is undergoing profound changes, with the national trend economy expected to reach 2.29 trillion yuan in 2024, driven largely by the "Z Generation" [1] - The aging population is projected to contribute significantly to the economy, with the silver economy expected to reach 7 trillion yuan [1] Consumption Trends - The shift in China's consumption structure is moving from quantity to quality, emphasizing emotional value over functional value [4] - Retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow from 25.9 trillion yuan in 2014 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, an increase of over 80% [4] - Service consumption is growing faster than goods consumption, with health-related spending increasing at an annual rate of 9.8% from 2013 to 2024 [4] Z Generation Consumption - The "Z Generation" (born 1995-2009) comprises about 260 million people, contributing 40% of total consumption, with their spending projected to quadruple to 16 trillion yuan by 2035 [7] - This generation values personalization and seeks recognition through niche consumption, with a significant portion being rational consumers [7] - Direct selling can leverage the rational consumption habits of the Z Generation by providing expert knowledge and personalized products [7] Silver Economy - By the end of 2024, the population aged 60 and above in China is expected to exceed 300 million, with the silver economy projected to reach 19.1 trillion yuan by 2035 [10] - The health consumption patterns of the elderly are evolving, with a notable increase in demand for senior-friendly products, such as fitness equipment and health supplements [10][11] - The shift from passive treatment to proactive prevention in health-related products presents a significant market opportunity [11] Green Consumption - Green consumption is becoming a mainstream trend, with 83% of consumers willing to pay a premium for smart health appliances [14] - Sales of health monitoring devices are expected to grow by 41.6% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reflecting the rising demand for smart consumer products [14] - Direct selling companies are integrating sustainable development into their core strategies, enhancing consumer trust in green products [14] Direct Selling Model Advantages - The direct selling model's personalized service and strong social attributes align well with new consumer demands [18] - Direct sellers can effectively cater to the Z Generation's preference for experiential and personalized products through social media engagement [18] - The model's one-on-one service can meet the specialized health needs of the elderly, positioning direct sellers as trusted health advisors [18] Future Market Outlook - The evolution of three major consumer forces and the adaptability of the direct selling model create a roadmap for future market changes [19] - Direct selling companies that align with consumer trends and provide high-quality offerings can secure advantageous positions in the expanding market [19] - The industry is poised for a resurgence, with the direct selling model's compatibility with new consumption trends indicating a bright future ahead [19]

Core Insights - Chengdu's Metro Line 18 is under complex construction, involving multiple transportation hubs and advanced digital construction technologies [1][2] - The project is providing a testing ground for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to validate and optimize their innovative construction technologies [2][3] - Other cities in China are also opening up various public service scenarios to facilitate the application of new technologies by SMEs [5][6] Group 1: Construction and Technology Innovation - Chengdu Metro Line 18 is utilizing four shield tunneling machines and has developed a specialized cutter head system to adapt to complex geological conditions [2] - The project has established a comprehensive digital construction support system, allowing SMEs to test their technologies in real-world scenarios [2][4] - The collaboration with local authorities is enhancing the application of big data and AI in construction, improving project management and coordination [2][4] Group 2: Broader Application of New Technologies - The underground parking lot in Chengdu High-tech Zone is being used to test autonomous parking technologies, addressing common parking challenges [3][4] - Other cities like Hangzhou, Suzhou, and Guangzhou are also creating smart service scenarios to support the development of technologies in public transportation, elderly care, and healthcare [5][6] - These initiatives not only address public needs but also provide SMEs with practical opportunities to deploy their innovations [6] Group 3: Mechanism Innovation and Support - Chengdu has established a dedicated team to promote application scenarios for new technologies, offering financial support ranging from 300,000 to 1 million yuan for selected projects [8] - The city is implementing a structured process to identify and promote advanced technologies and products, facilitating their transition from prototypes to market-ready solutions [8][9] - Other cities are also innovating their mechanisms to enhance the application of new technologies across various sectors, moving towards a more systematic approach [9]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the importance of enhancing the supply-demand adaptability of consumer goods, particularly focusing on the elderly population and promoting the development of age-friendly products and services [6][9] - It emphasizes the need for a comprehensive approach to improve care services for severely disabled individuals, aiming to expand and enhance the quality of care facilities [8] - The report discusses the establishment of a standard system for elderly care services, which includes the development of national standards for age-friendly products and services [10][19] Central Dynamics - The State Council approved the draft of the "National Reading Promotion Regulations," aiming to enhance public literacy and cultural quality through reading initiatives [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to promote consumption by enhancing the supply of age-friendly products, including care robots and health monitoring devices [6] Departmental Dynamics - The Ministry of Civil Affairs and the China Disabled Persons' Federation held a video conference to advance care services for severely disabled individuals, focusing on expanding and improving service quality [8] - The National Market Supervision Administration and the Ministry of Civil Affairs announced the "Elderly Care Service Standard System Construction Guide (2025 Edition)," which aims to establish a comprehensive standard system for elderly care [9][10] Local Developments - The 8th China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai, showcasing over 4,100 overseas enterprises, with a focus on future industries and technologies [11] - The 11th China International Aging Industry Expo and the "Technology for the Disabled" Expo were held, featuring advanced technology products for elderly care and disability assistance [13] - The Tianjin Investment and Trade Fair highlighted innovative assistive technologies for the elderly and disabled, showcasing various products aimed at improving their quality of life [15] Corporate and Social Initiatives - The "Science Accessibility Sharing Action" event was held to enhance scientific literacy among individuals with disabilities, featuring hands-on experiences and expert lectures [17] - A strategic cooperation agreement was signed between the China Standardization Association and JD Group to advance the construction of age-friendly standards, aiming to improve the quality of products for the elderly [19]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, targeting the formation of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [1] Group 1: Elderly Products - The plan emphasizes the development of age-friendly products, including elderly service robots, multifunctional nursing beds, and health monitoring devices [6][7] - It promotes the launch of comfortable, functional, and stylish clothing and footwear for the elderly, as well as food products that cater to their nutritional needs [9] - An initiative will be launched to support elderly products and services, encouraging home modifications for elderly care and promoting age-friendly product directories [11] Group 2: Smart Connected Vehicles - Significant breakthroughs have been made in key technologies for smart connected vehicles, establishing a complete industrial chain that includes smart cockpits, autonomous driving, and connected cloud control [12] - From January to October, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 10.15 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 21.9% [12] - The production value of smart vehicle equipment manufacturing increased by 25.1% in the first three quarters, with new car sales of vehicles equipped with Level 2 driving assistance features growing by 21.2% [14] Group 3: Consumer Electronics - The definition of consumer electronics has evolved, now encompassing a wide range of products including personal computers, smartphones, and smart home devices, with a focus on integrating generative artificial intelligence technologies [17][18] - From January to October, the production of smartphones reached 1.02 billion units, with overall sales in the home appliance and communication equipment sectors also showing significant growth [19] - The plan encourages the development of smart home products, consumer electronics, and the establishment of a robust manufacturing base in the home appliance sector [23]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, setting quantifiable targets of three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, thereby optimizing the supply structure of consumer goods [1][2]. Group 1: Implementation Plan Goals - By 2027, the plan targets a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure, establishing three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [1]. - By 2030, a high-quality development pattern characterized by positive interaction between supply and consumption is expected to be fundamentally established, with a steady increase in the contribution of consumption to economic growth [2][3]. Group 2: Market Context and Trends - As of now, the total variety of consumer goods in China has reached 230 million, with over 100 categories, including home appliances and furniture, leading global production [2]. - In the first ten months of this year, retail sales of goods reached 36.6 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.4%, which is an acceleration of 1.2 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2]. Group 3: Focus Areas for Development - The plan emphasizes the cultivation of key areas such as elderly products and smart connected vehicles, reflecting the demand driven by demographic changes and technological upgrades [4]. - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the importance of the silver economy [4]. Group 4: Strategies for Implementation - The plan includes measures to enhance the supply of elderly products, such as developing necessary products like nursing robots and health monitoring devices, and promoting home modifications for the elderly [4]. - To achieve the set goals, the plan calls for accelerated technological innovation, market cultivation through new consumption scenarios, and the establishment of a supportive policy framework [5].

Core Insights - The new consumption policy marks a shift from universal stimulus to targeted support, focusing on matching diverse consumer needs across different demographics [1] - The policy aims to cultivate three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots, enhancing the resilience and quality of consumption growth [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The domestic retail sales of baby products (excluding food) are projected to exceed 560 billion yuan in 2024, indicating structural growth opportunities in the industry [2] - The cosmetics sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with over 430 billion yuan in retail sales, particularly in domestic skincare brands focusing on ingredient efficacy and male-targeted beauty products [2] Group 2: Policy Implications - The new consumption policy addresses safety concerns for children's products through a three-year action plan, enhancing quality management for key products [2] - The policy encourages the cultivation of independent designers and brands to tap into the "Guochao" (national trend) consumption enthusiasm among the youth [2] - It also emphasizes the development of age-friendly products to bridge the digital divide for the elderly, focusing on essential items like care robots and health monitoring devices [2] Group 3: Business Strategies - Companies are encouraged to gain insights into consumer needs, such as creating traceable products for babies and integrating traditional craftsmanship with modern design for the youth [3] - Businesses should leverage policy benefits by engaging in safety initiatives and participating in the development of industry standards [3] - A service ecosystem should be built around core products, enhancing user engagement through tailored services like parenting support and cultural experience activities [3]

Group 1 - The "Implementation Plan" aims to create three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, focusing on elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics [1] - The elderly products market is projected to grow from 2.6 trillion yuan in 2014 to 5.4 trillion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 7.3%, highlighting the potential of the silver economy [1][2] - By 2024, the elderly population aged 65 and above in China is expected to reach 220 million, accounting for 15.6% of the total population, indicating a significant consumer base [1] Group 2 - The plan suggests enhancing the research and design of elderly-friendly products, including elderly care robots, multifunctional nursing beds, and health monitoring devices [2] - There is a growing demand for hearing health products, with multinational hearing health device manufacturers increasing investments in the Chinese market [2] - The recent draft of the "National Food Safety Standard for Nutritional Supplements for the Elderly" marks the first national standard specifically for nutritional supplements for individuals aged 60 and above [3]