7月10日外交部发言人毛宁主持例行记者会，有记者问：美国总统特朗普昨天宣布将对进口铜征收50% 的关税，理由是国家安全，请问中方对此有何评论？ 毛宁表示，这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念，我们也始终认为关税战、贸 易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。（央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the announcement by Trump to impose a 50% tariff on copper, highlighting the ongoing trade tensions and the stance of the Chinese government against such measures [1]. Group 1 - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper on July 9 [1] - The Chinese government, represented by spokesperson Mao Ning, expressed a clear opposition to the broadening of national security concepts and emphasized that trade wars have no winners [1] - The Chinese stance indicates that excessive tariffs do not align with the interests of any party involved [1]

【外交部：美对铜加征关税不符合任何一方利益】当地时间7月9日，特朗普宣布对铜征50%关税。今 天，中国外交部发言人毛宁对此表示：这个问题我们立场非常明确，我们一贯反对泛化国家安全概念， 我们也始终认为关税战、贸易战没有赢家，滥施关税不符合任何一方的利益。（央视新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) may be quickly undermined by trade-related shocks, as indicated by the Australian Federal Bank's foreign exchange strategy head, Samara Hammoud [1] Exchange Rate Movement - The AUD/USD exchange rate has risen to 0.6540, compared to a level below 0.6000 a few months ago [1] - The implied volatility of this currency pair remains below its long-term average, suggesting that the financial market is underestimating the potential impact of significant tariff increases [1] Trade War Implications - Should trade war-related news directly affect Australia, the AUD/USD could potentially decline by two to four cents in the coming weeks [1]

Group 1 - India officially notified the WTO on July 4 about its plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to the impact of increased tariffs on auto and auto parts exports [1] - The US administration, led by President Trump, has shifted its approach to impose "across-the-board" tariffs without prior individual negotiations with countries, which has raised concerns among nations eager to reach trade agreements with the US [2][5] - The trade deficit between India and the US is significant, with India's exports to the US totaling $87.4 billion and US exports to India at $41.8 billion, resulting in a gap of $45.7 billion [2] Group 2 - The main contention in US-India trade negotiations revolves around India's reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets to US products, which is a critical issue for both economies [3][5] - India's agricultural sector is vital for its economy, and concessions in this area could lead to severe repercussions for small farmers and the dairy industry [3][5] - India is seeking lower tariffs from the US compared to those imposed on China, while also requesting the removal of tariffs on Indian-made electronics, but the US has refused to provide any exemptions [5] Group 3 - Indian Prime Minister Modi is determined to continue negotiations with the US, sending a delegation led by Rajesh Aggarwal to seek a mutually beneficial agreement [6] - Observers suggest that Modi may face disappointment, as the US's concessions to China were driven by specific economic needs that may not apply to India [6] - The ongoing trade conflict highlights the uncertainty in global trade dynamics, with India asserting its position against a "win-lose" partnership with the US [6][8]

Group 1: Tariff Imposition - The Trump administration announced new tariffs on products from several countries, including a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which exceeded market expectations [2] - Tariffs of 25% will be imposed on products from Brunei and Moldova, 30% on Algeria, Iraq, Libya, and Sri Lanka, and 20% on the Philippines [2] - The announcement led to a significant depreciation of the Brazilian real, with the USD/BRL exchange rate surpassing 5.60, reflecting a nearly 2.9% increase in the dollar's value [2] Group 2: International Reactions - Leaders from Japan and South Africa expressed regret and deemed the U.S. tariff actions as unreasonable, indicating a potential need for stronger countermeasures [3] - The European Union is preparing to respond to the U.S. tariffs, with ongoing disputes primarily focused on specific industries such as steel, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [3] - Analysts suggest that the trade war initiated by the Trump administration may accelerate a trend of "de-Americanization" as countries reassess their economic dependencies on the U.S. [3] Group 3: Federal Reserve Criticism - The Trump administration intensified criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, claiming that current interest rates are at least 3 percentage points too high [4] - If the Fed were to lower rates as Trump suggested, it would bring rates down to a range of 1.25%-1.50%, the lowest in three years [5] - The administration's criticism is linked to rising national debt levels due to the passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill, prompting urgency in addressing interest rates [6]

Report's Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI remaining stable in June at 49.5%. The basis shows a premium for the spot over the futures, which is bullish. The inventory situation is neutral with an increase in copper inventory on July 9 and an increase in SHFE copper inventory from last week. The price is above the 20 - day moving average with the average trending upwards, which is bullish. However, the main positions are net short and the short positions are increasing, which is bearish. The market is expected to be volatile due to factors such as the slowdown of Fed rate - cuts, high - level inventory destocking, US trade tariff uncertainties, and geopolitical disturbances, including a 50% US copper tariff increase [2]. - The recent analysis of bullish and bearish factors involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Summary by Relevant Directory Daily View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is neutral; the price trend on the disk is bullish; the main positions are bearish; and the market is expected to be volatile [2]. Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - Bullish and bearish factors involve domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war [3]. Spot - The report provides information on the location, mid - price, price change, inventory type, total quantity, and increase or decrease of copper spots, but specific data is not fully presented [6]. Exchange Inventory - On July 9, copper inventory increased by 4625 tons to 107125 tons, and SHFE copper inventory increased by 3039 tons from last week to 84589 tons [2]. Bonded Area Inventory - The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The copper market is slightly in surplus in 2024 and in a tight balance in 2025. The report also provides a China annual supply - demand balance table for copper from 2018 - 2024 [19][21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industry products, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, suggesting different approaches such as buying, selling, or holding based on the specific market conditions of each commodity [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Prices are in high - level oscillation. China's central bank has increased gold holdings for 8 consecutive months. Suggest going long on gold due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: It shows a rebound with good market sales recently. Long - term industrial silver demand is downward, so consider long - term short positions or going long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Prices oscillated. Trump's tariff increase affected the market. It is recommended to wait for a full adjustment and then buy at low prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to oscillate. It is advised to wait and see due to macro uncertainties and a consumption off - season [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices may be strong in the short term. It is recommended to buy at low prices or purchase call options [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term market sentiment is strong with high unilateral risks. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is recommended to wait and see due to expected marginal improvement and industrial information disturbances [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to wait and see and try a reverse spread [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply and demand are neutral. It is recommended to wait and see and layout long positions on the far - month coil - ore ratio [4][5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is relatively loose with improving fundamentals. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term US soybeans are in a range - bound oscillation. Domestic soybeans follow international cost - side trends [6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate within a range due to reduced surplus grain and wheat substitution [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 09 contract is expected to be weak and oscillate. It is recommended to short in the futures market, sell call options, or lock in prices for end - users [6]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - bound trading strategy [7]. - **Palm Oil**: It is expected to be strong in the short term with wide - range oscillations. Pay attention to production areas and bio - diesel policies [7]. - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate due to high supply and cost support [7]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and adjust due to increasing supply and weakening demand [7]. - **Apples**: It is recommended to wait and see, and the market is affected by weather [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Short - term supply and demand improve. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [8][9]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to wait and see after gradually closing short positions [9]. - **PTA**: It is recommended to go long on PX, do a positive spread on PTA, and short processing fees in the long term [9]. - **Glass**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **PP**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [9][10]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10]. - **Crude Oil**: The long - term trend is bearish. It is recommended to short at high prices and pay attention to inventory accumulation [10]. - **Styrene**: The short - term trend is weak and oscillating. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long term [10]. - **Soda Ash**: Fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to short at high prices [10][11].

核心政策分析 特朗普经济政策的影响与前景 文/UNFX宏观 唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第二任期伊始便以惊人的速度推进其标志性的经济议程，这不仅是对其竞选承诺的兑现，更是一场对美国经济未来走向 的 高风险实验。核心政策—— 大规模减税与 广泛征收关税——已迅速落地，其潜在影响正成为各界关注和争论的焦点。 大规模减税 然而，经济学界的普遍共识是，关税本质上是对国内消费者征税。进口成本的上升将不可避免地转嫁到终端价格上，加剧通胀压力，侵蚀消费者购买力。耶 鲁大学的估计显示，这可能导致家庭收入实际下降。 此外，关税战扰乱全球供应链，损害依赖进口零部件或出口市场的国内企业，并可能引发贸易伙伴的报复，进一步损害美国经济利益。 新签署的减税法案，在很大程度上延续并扩大了第一任期的税收优惠，特别是针对企业和高收入群体。支持者认为这将刺激投资和经济增长，但其融资方式 ——大幅削减社会保障网——以及预计将增加的逾3万亿美元国债，引发了严重的财政担忧。 主流经济学家普遍警告，在已经高企的债务基础上进一步扩大赤字，将推高借贷成本，挤压私人投资空间，并可能导致长期经济增长放缓。将债务占GDP 比重推至二战后新高，不仅是数字上的变化，更是对 ...

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