Group 1 - The core issue facing U.S. farmers is the lack of orders from China for soybeans during the harvest season, leading to severe economic distress [3][6] - U.S. soybean exports to China are projected to be zero this year, despite an expected export value of $12.8 billion for 2024 [3][6] - The agricultural crisis is exacerbated by high production costs and record yields, resulting in a significant drop in commodity prices, with soybean prices down approximately 40% from 2022 [5][6] Group 2 - The economic crisis is affecting not only farmers but also the entire supply chain, including transportation and logistics sectors, which are facing a sharp decline in demand [7][8] - The potential rise in farm bankruptcies is alarming, with a reported 55% increase in bankruptcies last year, and farmers are experiencing heightened stress levels [6][9] - Calls for the U.S. government to end the trade war with China are growing, as farmers believe that resolving trade issues is crucial for their survival [8][9] Group 3 - The U.S. government has promised over $60 billion in subsidies to farmers, but these funds may not be available until 2026, raising concerns about immediate relief [9] - The long-term impact of the trade war could lead to a decline in land values and reduced production if markets are not restored quickly [9] - The agricultural community is urging the government to prioritize soybean trade negotiations with China to prevent further economic damage [8][9]

中美"大豆战"硝烟弥漫：金黄的绝望，巨人的抉择 在美利坚腹地，那片曾承载着丰收希望的金黄豆田，如今却被阴霾笼罩。收割机的轰鸣声不再是喜悦的奏鸣曲，而是奏响了一曲曲绝望的哀歌。 "瞧瞧这庄稼，我一生中从未种出过如此饱满的金黄！可现在，因为这场关税的拉锯战，中国不再下单。我只能看着它们被无情地碾碎，重新回归泥土，因 为它们毫无价值，无人问津。"一位美国中西部豆农在短视频平台上哽咽着，镜头中，一颗颗饱满成熟的大豆被粉碎机搅烂，化作田间的肥料。这幅画面， 如同美国农业在贸易战阴影下的一声声无助的呐喊。 今年秋季，美国迎来了令人瞩目的玉米和大豆大丰收，然而，曾经最大的买家——中国，却迟迟未发出任何订单。美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰心急如 焚，紧急致信总统特朗普，发出了严峻的警告：美国农业正濒临一场深刻的危机，豆农们的处境已是"极其严峻"。 贸易寒风中的牺牲品：大豆的命运交织 这场突如其来的大豆危机，其根源可追溯至2025年初中美两国贸易摩擦的不断升级。彼时，特朗普政府先发制人，对来自加拿大和墨西哥的商品施加25%的 关税，同时对中国商品加征10%的关税。 作为强有力的回应，中国政府迅速启动了反制措施，对原产于美国的若 ...

更离谱的是，美国农民首当其冲。中国反制关税一上来，美国大豆出口直接被砍掉一大块，2019年美国不得不拿出280亿美元补贴农民。这钱哪来的？税 收。说白了还是美国老百姓埋单。 企业也没好到哪去。根据美小企业联合会的调研，到2025年，美国中小企业因为关税，每家每年平均多花12万美元成本。你想象一下，一个本来利润就不厚 的中小厂商，多背这么个负担，怎么活？ 再说科技公司。2020年开始美国限制高端芯片卖中国，表面上看是要卡中国脖子。结果中国市场占了英伟达和高通接近一半收入，一刀切下去，他们的财报 直接掉头。高通2023年在中国的收入比上一年少了将近20%，股价也跟着跌。研发经费一紧，反过来影响他们自己在全球的竞争力。 你有没有发现，美国这几年跟中国硬刚，最后受伤的好像都是自己人？ 我这两天翻了下数据，2018年特朗普发动贸易战的时候，对中国商品加税超过3000亿美元。他当时说要减少逆差，结果到2024年，美国对华逆差依然有3500 亿美元。美商务部的数据摆在那，这笔账怎么算都不像是赢。 所以特朗普2025年再上台，看财政部报告的时候才皱眉。因为他终于发现，这不是在维护超级大国的地位，而是在消耗超级大国的底子。 美 ...

当地时间9月14日至15日，中美两国代表团在西班牙马德里举行了第四轮高层贸易谈判。这是继斯德哥尔摩会谈后，双方在关税停火协议背景下再一次续 谈。 此次会谈的核心内容主要有四点： 1、关税问题。双方在稀土、半导体、农产品等领域互加关税已导致全球供应链紧张。美国希望中国在关键原材料出口上做出让步，而中方则坚持美方必须 减少对中国企业的限制。 2、技术与出口管制。美国对中国先进芯片和相关设备的出口限制，一直被中方谴责。而中国也不惯着，采取了对等反制措施，发起对美国芯片产品的反倾 销调查，以平衡谈判筹码。 3、TikTok问题。美国要求字节跳动在9月17日前剥离TikTok美国业务，否则将采取进一步措施。中方则认为此举涉及企业正当权益，要求美方避免泛化国家 安全概念。 4、能源与地缘政治。美国提出希望中国减少从俄罗斯进口石油，以避免为俄乌冲突提供资金支持，中方对此态度一直都是公开公正的，这是中俄之间的正 常贸易。 这也不能怪他们，现在很多欧盟国家都在担心，如果真对中国全面加税，后果不堪设想，这将直接冲击欧洲本已脆弱的经济。尤其是德国、法国等在对华贸 易上依赖度较高的国家。欧洲媒体指出，如果跟随美国对中国征收100%关 ...

之前，美国一直催着日本、欧盟这些盟友，去对中国、印度这类买了很多俄罗斯石油的国家搞 "进一步 制裁"，还要加50%甚至100%的关税，理由是 "这些国家在给俄罗斯提供战争资金"。 但到了9月16日下午，日本财务大臣加藤胜信却明确拒绝了美国这个要求。 真没想到啊，美国最铁的盟友，这一次竟公开站出来说"不"！ 对华的"老套路"失效 说到特朗普的"关税战术"，关注国际新闻的朋友可能都不陌生。 从2018年对华挑起贸易战开始，他就一直把加征关税当作"万能药"，不管什么问题，似乎都觉得多征点 税就能让对方服软。 但到了2025年，他这套打法有了新变化，他硬要把俄乌冲突和中美贸易扯到一起，声称"中国买俄罗斯 石油"，所以鼓动G7国家一起对中国加税。 这一招看似来势汹汹，其实背后反映出的是美国的战略焦虑。 根据2025年中国海关总署发布的关税调整时间表，美国从2月份就开始不断加码，先是借"芬太尼问 题"加了10%的关税，3月又提到20%，4月更离谱，搞出一套"对等关税"机制，把部分中国商品的税率 一路推高到145%。 信息来源：新华社/2025.05.12中美经贸高层会谈在瑞士日内瓦举行 虽然后来5月份中美在日内瓦举行了高 ...

Core Viewpoint - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, precious metals have surged, with silver rising by 3.81% and gold increasing over 2%, surpassing the 3700 mark and setting a new historical high [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Silver has shown a significant increase of 3.81% [1] - Gold has risen over 2%, reaching above 3700, marking a new historical high [1] Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Global central banks have increased their gold purchases, adding over 400 tons in the first half of this year, following three consecutive years of buying over 1000 tons [1] Group 3: Economic Context - The trend of rising gold prices is supported by a shift towards de-globalization, the U.S. initiating trade wars, and a gradual decline in the credibility of the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve's re-initiation of the interest rate cut cycle is expected to further weaken the dollar, opening up more upward potential for gold prices [1] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Silver, being a smaller market commodity, is expected to show greater elasticity, with its price likely to exceed that of gold in the later stages of a gold bull market [1]

Group 1 - The G7 summit concluded with President Trump urging traditional allies like Japan and Germany to impose high tariffs on goods from China and India, ranging from 50% to 100% [1][3] - Japan's Finance Minister, Taro Kato, stated that Japan would not impose additional tariffs on China and India, citing World Trade Organization (WTO) rules as a defense [5][7] - Japan emphasized the principles of most-favored-nation treatment and non-discrimination under WTO rules, arguing that raising tariffs based solely on energy trade with Russia is prohibited [9] Group 2 - Japan's refusal to comply with Trump's demands reflects its deep economic ties with China, as evidenced by a nearly balanced trade volume of $206.4 billion in the first eight months of 2025 [10] - Historical lessons from the Plaza Accord in 1985, which led to Japan's economic stagnation, have influenced Japan's current independent stance on economic policies [12] - Japan's energy security strategy includes diversifying energy sources, with Russian energy imports being a key component, while also preparing to increase purchases from other regions [14] Group 3 - The political environment in Japan, particularly the impending resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, has provided a favorable context for rejecting U.S. demands [14] - China's strong opposition to unilateral sanctions and potential retaliatory measures has also played a crucial role in Japan's decision [15] - The U.S. has not immediately retaliated against Japan's refusal, indicating the complexity of U.S.-Japan relations and the ongoing security cooperation between the two nations [17] Group 4 - Japan's decision to reject Trump's tariff demands may signal a shift in global trade dynamics, where even close allies begin to prioritize national interests and international rules over blind allegiance [19]

谈判落幕之际，特朗普在社交媒体上发表长文，罕见承认美国制造业严重衰退，甚至坦言连航母建造都 困难重重。这位素来强硬的总统突然自揭短板，显然事出偶然。回顾其任期内的对华政策，虽然花样百 出却收效甚微。谈判期间，美方试图打台湾牌施压，不料解放军立即在山东外海展开实弹演习。现场目 这场在马德里举行的贸易谈判无疑是当前国际舞台的焦点事件。据最新报道，中国商务部代表李成钢在 15日宣布，双方就TikTok等经贸议题达成初步共识。从结果来看，美方显然未能如愿以偿。这一局面其 实早有预兆——谈判前夕，美方曾高调表示对现有关税政策相当满意，并暗示在元首会晤前不会调整关 税。 击者拍摄的画面显示，两枚导弹在空中完成精准拦截，这场家门口的实战演练既检验了战力，更展示了 中国捍卫核心利益的决心。 特朗普态度软化实属形势所迫。美国最后的台湾牌已然失效，国内更是乱象丛生：政治暴力事件频发， 两极化对立加剧。在国际舞台上，传统盟友纷纷转向，连巴西、加拿大等国家也开始深化与华合作。更 关键的是，美国制造业竞争力持续下滑，正如特朗普亲口承认的那样，现在连航母建造都屡屡延期。若 继续贸易战，美国承受的代价可能远超中国。 中美贸易谈判近期在西班 ...

Core Points - The U.S. government is intensifying pressure on allies to impose tariffs on Chinese goods, although broad support remains limited [1] - Mexico's recent decision to raise import tariffs on countries without trade agreements is seen as a response to U.S. pressure [3][5] - The U.S. is attempting to form a tariff alliance against China, with Canada and the EU also aligning their trade policies more closely with U.S. interests [8][10] Group 1 - The U.S. has successfully influenced Mexico to increase tariffs on Chinese exports, including a maximum 50% tariff on key products like automobiles and textiles [5][6] - Canada has also been pressured to impose significant tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles and steel, indicating a broader North American strategy to create trade barriers against China [8][10] - The EU is gradually aligning its trade policies with the U.S., evidenced by recent anti-subsidy investigations into Chinese products and calls for high tariffs on Chinese goods [8][12] Group 2 - The formation of a tariff alliance aims to block Chinese goods from being rerouted through third countries, leverage allied nations to collectively counter China, and shift the burden of trade conflicts onto other nations [12] - Historical evidence suggests that trade wars yield no winners, and countries considering following the U.S. in imposing tariffs on China should carefully weigh the potential consequences [12]

申银万国期货：目前船司9月底大柜均价在1500美元左右，折算成现货指数基本和10合约持平，马士基 当前报价已低于5月份报价，为年内新低同时也是2023年底绕行好望角以来新低，国庆前运价继续加速 下行。目前统计到10月周均运力降至28万TEU左右，运力相对有所下降，国庆黄金周后运价下行速率或 有放缓，关注后续船司调降节奏。 现货报价方面，达飞将9月末小柜与大柜订舱价格分别下调50美元和100美元至1010美元/TEU和1620美 元/FEU；赫伯罗特将9月末至10月上旬部分航次运价调降至985美元/TEU。 9月8日至9月12日，中国出口集装箱运输市场基本稳定，多数航线市场运价下跌，拖累综合指数下行。 据海关总署最新公布的数据显示，按美元计，中国8月出口同比增长4.4%，出口贸易延续平稳增长态 势。 机构观点 9月22日，集运指数（欧线）期货大幅走高，截至发稿主力合约报1103.0点，涨幅2.86%。 【消息面汇总】 上周五SCFI综合指数为1198.21点，周环比下跌14.30%，总体呈现加速下跌态势，具体航线来看，美 东、美西运价跌幅居前，创2023年12月以来新低，NCFI欧线环比下跌7.65%，跌至红海 ...