家住北京市的王女士跑了两家大行网点，却发现5年期大额存单都停售了，3年期的产品也得靠"抢"，利率还比去年降 了不少 近年来，随着银行业净息差持续承压，各银行开始重新评估自己的负债结构，国有大行陆续下架五年期大额存单产品 工商银行APP显示，该行近期发售的 2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单起步门槛标注为"100万起存"，年利率仅为 1.55%，而工行三年期定存产品的年利率标注为"年利率最高可至1.55%"，定存的起步门槛仅为50元 在金融市场上，长期存款产品正在悄然消失。记者通过登录工商银行官方APP及手机银行查询发现，目前该行"大额 存单"栏目下仅剩余 1个月、3个月、6个月、1年、2年、3年六个期限产品，5年期产品已无踪影 不止工商银行，农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行及邮储银行这六家国有大行已全面停售5年期大额存单产 品 部分股份制银行及城商行也紧随其后收缩长期存款业务。招商银行客服人员确认，该行大额存单的在售列表中已没有 3年期和5年期的选项 当五年期大额存单消失的同时，三年期产品的门槛也在不断提高。 工商银行APP显示，该行正在发售的2025年第四期3年期个人大额存单，起步门槛标注为"100万 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Policy dividends for public REITs are continuously released, with both horizontal expansion in asset types and vertical deepening in market development. The market is expected to expand 10 - 16 times in scale, reaching a value of 2.3 - 3.8 trillion yuan [1][26]. - Public REITs are high - dividend, quasi - fixed - income equity assets. Their average annual dividend rate in the past four years was 5.73%, higher than the 5.52% of the CSI Dividend Index, and they have a certain allocation advantage over stocks and bonds [2]. - The returns of public REITs combine bond and equity attributes. The investment return can be decomposed into dividend income and asset appreciation income. The annualized returns of the entire REITs market in the past one year, three years, and since inception are 23.66%, 3.24%, and 7.64% respectively [3]. - Public REITs are a stable choice for asset allocation during market fluctuations. They have a weak or extremely weak correlation with mainstream assets such as the CSI 300 and 10 - year treasury bonds, which can effectively hedge against the risk of single - asset fluctuations and fill the gap of medium - risk, stable - return assets between stocks and bonds [4]. Summary by Directory Policy Evolution: From Pilot Breakthrough to Full - scale Expansion - REITs in China have transformed from private to public and from debt - like to equity - like. Since the listing of the first batch of public REITs, policies from the central to local levels have promoted the market's expansion, capacity increase, and deepening [12]. - The policy has continuously expanded the underlying asset types of public REITs. Currently, the issuance scope covers 12 major industries and 52 asset types, with 18 asset types in 10 industries achieving their first - single listings. The National Development and Reform Commission is promoting further expansion to more asset types such as urban renewal facilities and commercial office facilities [14]. - Public REITs can be divided into two types based on underlying asset types: property - based REITs and concession - based REITs, with different investment returns and risk characteristics [15]. Market Scale Outlook: A Trillion - yuan Blue Ocean, Ready to Take Off - The underlying assets of REITs are becoming more diverse. Although the current market scale is small and liquidity is weak, with the normalization of issuance, the market is expected to continue to expand [25]. - By referring to the REITs markets in the United States and Japan, and calculating based on GDP and listed company market value, it is estimated that the scale of the Chinese REITs market will be 2.3 - 3.8 trillion yuan, with 10 - 16 times expansion space compared to the current scale [26]. Investment Value: High - Dividend, Quasi - Fixed - Income Equity Assets - Public REITs are both equity - like and debt - like. Their secondary - market prices fluctuate with trading, and they have a mandatory dividend feature, which is their debt - like attribute [33]. - The average annual dividend rate of public REITs in the past four years was 5.73%, higher than the 5.52% of the CSI Dividend Index. The spread between the dividend rate of public REITs and the 10 - year treasury bond yield has been between 300 - 400BP in the past three years, showing a certain allocation advantage [2][34]. Return Decomposition: Dividend Income and Capital Gains - The investment return of public REITs combines bond and equity attributes, suitable for investors with medium risk tolerance seeking long - term stable returns. The return can be decomposed into dividend income and asset appreciation income [36]. - The average total return of listed public REITs reaches 17.21%, showing significant category differentiation. The annualized returns of the entire REITs market in the past one year, three years, and since inception are 23.66%, 3.24%, and 7.64% respectively [36][39]. - For US - listed REITs, the longer the investment period, the higher the proportion of dividend income. In the short - term (3 - year investment), 2/3 of the return comes from price increases, while in the long - term (15 - year investment), the proportion of dividend income rises to 2/3, and further increases to over 70% in 35 - 40 years [40]. Asset Comparison: Medium Risk - Return and Low Correlation with Other Assets - Since 2025, the CSI REITs Index has shown weak or extremely weak correlations with the CSI 300, 10 - year treasury bonds, gold, and CSI Dividend Stocks, with correlation coefficients of - 0.07, 0.14, 0.21, and 0.17 respectively [41]. - REITs are essential and advantageous in asset allocation. They can hedge against single - asset fluctuation risks and optimize the risk - return structure of the portfolio. They also fill the gap of medium - risk, stable - return assets between stocks and bonds, meeting the needs of medium - and long - term funds [43]. Investment Methods: Primary Market Subscription and Secondary Market Trading - The investment methods of REITs include primary market investment (subscription at the initial issuance or expansion stage) and secondary market investment (trading through stock accounts after listing). Currently, institutional investors are the main participants in the public REITs market and their proportion is increasing [50]. Primary Market: Centered on Dividends and Listing Premiums - Investors in the primary market are divided into strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors, with different requirements and characteristics. The subscription price is determined through offline investor inquiries [53]. - The average proportions of strategic investors, offline investors, and public investors in the initial issuance of various public REITs are 72%, 20%, and 9% respectively. The short - term return for primary - market subscribers comes from the difference between the subscription price and the secondary - market trading price [56]. - In 2025, the average first - day increase of newly - listed public REITs was 23%, significantly higher than the previous four years, due to policy improvement, supply - demand imbalance, and the decline in the returns of traditional investment products [58]. Secondary Market: Coexistence of Return Elasticity and Risks - The secondary - market performance of public REITs can be divided into six stages since the listing of the first batch. Currently, after a continuous five - month adjustment, the allocation value of REITs has significantly increased, and December is expected to be an important allocation window [62][66].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the hidden risks associated with high-yield fixed-income products in a slowing economic environment, where investors may face significant losses if bonds default [2] - The "Fixed Income +" strategy is gaining popularity among investors as a way to achieve higher returns without increasing risk in fixed-income products [2][3] - The concept of "Fixed Income +" has become a mainstream investment strategy in overseas markets, particularly in the U.S. and Japan, where traditional fixed-income yields have declined [3][4] Group 2 - In Japan, the shift to a negative interest rate environment has led to a high proportion of "Fixed Income +" investments as individuals seek better returns [4] - The decline in traditional fixed-income yields in both overseas and domestic markets is driving investors to seek alternative products that offer stable returns [4] - The article suggests that for those looking for a more effortless investment in "Fixed Income +", the monthly salary treasure investment advisory portfolio is currently a suitable option [4]

资产配置 | 动态跟踪 资产配置策略中低波分化，行业策略转向 ——资产配置模型月报 202512 研究结论 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 03 日 | 王晶 | 执业证书编号：S0860510120030 | | --- | --- | | | wangjing@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63325888*6072 | | 周仕盈 | 执业证书编号：S0860125060012 | | 资产配置不仅仅是风险分散：——主动型 | 2025-11-27 | | --- | --- | | 资产配置新思路 | | | 全天候模型仓位平稳，行业策略推荐科技/ | 2025-11-03 | | 有色/新能源等板块：——资产配置模型月 | | | 报 202511 | | | 关注权益和商品机会：——资产配置月报 | 2025-11-01 | | 202511 | | | 大类资产仓位平稳，行业策略推荐有色/科 | 2025-10-11 | | 技等板块：——资产配置模型月报 202510 | | | 大类资产风险可控，短期关注交易特征： | 2025-09-29 | | ——"2+1 ...

- The multi-asset allocation model is constructed based on macro state recognition, incorporating growth/inflation factors, liquidity, and gold factors to create a dynamic risk budget portfolio [4][33][34] - The growth factor includes PMI, industrial added value, retail sales, fixed asset investment, and export data, while the inflation factor uses CPI and PPI. Liquidity factor is measured by M1 year-on-year growth [34][35] - Equity market characteristics are monitored using ERP (Equity Risk Premium), EP (Earnings Yield), and BP (Book-to-Price ratio) to construct stock-bond cost-effectiveness factors [34][35] - Gold investment factors are constructed using the dollar index, central bank gold purchases, and exchange rates to assess dynamic allocation value [34][35] - The model employs a multi-objective optimization approach, integrating asset momentum into traditional risk parity and risk budget frameworks. ETFs are used for portfolio construction, with dynamic adjustments based on macro signals [37][38] - The industry rotation model incorporates six dimensions: macro, financial, analyst expectations, ETF share changes, public fund/selected fund position momentum, and event momentum [39][41] - The industry rotation model has achieved an annualized return of 28% since 2012, with an annualized excess return of 18.1% over industry equal weight and a monthly excess win rate of 70% [42][43] - The industry rotation ETF strategy employs a five-layer recursive solution method to enhance portfolio performance, achieving an annualized return improvement of over 12% [77][78] - The "Accompanying Style Enhanced FOF" uses a dynamic multi-factor model focusing on Alpha and crowding factors, with quarterly adjustments to optimize fund selection and portfolio construction [46][47] - The "Accompanying Broad-based Enhanced FOF" employs a relative benchmark strategy to control tracking error while maximizing composite factor scores, using a dynamic multi-factor model [53][54] - The "Long-term Capability Factor FOF" combines Brinson model-based decomposition with TM and H-M models for timing and selection capabilities, incorporating style factors for enhanced fund selection [64][66] - The "KF-Alpha+ Trading FOF" uses quarterly data and Kalman filter-based industry estimation to construct Alpha factors, focusing on industry-specific stock selection capabilities [70][73] - The industry rotation ETF portfolio achieved a monthly excess return of 1.5% during the reporting period, with a full-period annualized excess return of 17.79% and an IR of 1.72 [78][79][87]

格隆汇12月3日｜William Blair的分析师Alexandra Symeonidi表示，黄金的上涨势头可能会受到挑战，如 果明年市场情绪改善，资产配置重新流向风险资产。她表示，虽然黄金期货的持仓量高于长期平均水 平，但远低于今年的峰值，这可能预示着在年初强劲上涨之后，黄金市场乐观情绪有所减弱。这位分析 师在一份报告中指出，在降息周期中通胀仍具粘性的情况下，投资者对黄金的配置可能会增加。 Symeonidi还认为，"央行对黄金的需求更具结构性，因为美国财政赤字一直在增加，而且新兴市场央行 配置黄金占外汇储备的比例偏低。" ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes the cognitive differences between AI, analysts, and traders in response to the extreme situation of the US tightening chip export controls on October 17, 2023, highlighting their complementary roles in asset pricing rather than a replacement relationship [2][4][24] - AI processes information at millisecond speed, focusing on keywords and historical patterns, while analysts delve into regulatory details and industry research to understand policy intentions and supply-demand dynamics, and traders monitor market liquidity and emotional responses [2][8][12] - The report emphasizes that AI cannot replace human judgment due to its inability to recognize structural breaks, lack of second-order thinking, and difficulty in understanding soft information and context [3][25][26] Group 2 - The case of Nvidia illustrates the differences in response to the chip ban, where AI reacted mechanically based on historical data, while analysts and traders provided nuanced interpretations based on market conditions and regulatory context [5][12][24] - The report outlines three key dimensions where AI falls short compared to human analysts: handling structural breaks, lacking second-order thinking, and struggling with soft information [24][25][26] - The future competitive advantage lies in the collaboration between AI, analysts, and traders, where AI enhances information density, analysts provide structural insights, and traders offer real-time feedback [3][29][30] Group 3 - The report suggests that analysts should leverage AI as a super assistant, outsourcing mechanical tasks to focus on complex decision-making and value assessment [30][31] - Analysts need to transition from information transmitters to opinion monetizers, providing clear, logical conclusions based on known facts and market sentiment [30][31] - The ability to integrate knowledge across disciplines will be crucial for analysts to maintain a competitive edge in the AI era [31][33]

威廉博莱公司的Alexandra Symeonidi表示，如果明年市场人气改善，资产配置回归风险资产，那么 黄金 的涨势可能会受到挑战。她表示，虽然 期货仓位高于长期平均水平，但远低于今年的高点，这可能预 示着在经历了年初以来的强劲上涨后，黄金市场的乐观情绪有所降温。这位高级企业信用债和可 持续 发展分析师在一份报告中称，在降息周期中出现通胀居高不下的情况下，投资者对黄金的配置可能会增 加。Symeonidi还认为，"由于美国财政赤字不断增加，而且新兴市场央行黄金配置占外汇储备的比例较 低，央行对黄金的需求更具结构性。" ...

今年以来，A股表现不俗，但身处当中的各位投资者似乎并没有因此舒心多少。究其原因，今年呈现出 非常强的结构化行情， 投资机会虽多，却难以把握。除了个别投资者收益特别高，否则难免会为一些 错过的机会捶胸顿足。 所以，在这样方向难辨、热点轮动的市场环境下，越来越多投资者开始将目光转向那些能够分散风险、 力求稳健的配置工具。此时，像中证A500ETF这类均衡型的宽基指数产品，便显现出其独特的配置价 值。 尤其当下，当高景气赛道估值已不便宜，而低估值板块又仍需等待催化时，通过配置中证A500ETF，投 资者实际上是在通过投资宽基产品的方式，避开行业主题的波动。它既不会完全错过某个方向的上涨， 也不必承受过度暴露于单一行业的回调压力，更适合作为中长期资产配置的"压舱石"。 行业中性与龙头集中 今年以来，中证A500无疑已经成为了A股投资者的"心头好"， 相关ETF总规模已突破2500亿元，成为宽 基ETF中增长较快的类别之一。 能够被更多投资者喜爱和信任，不只是因为它"在沪深300与中证1000之间"，更因为它背后的编制逻 辑：以行业均衡、龙头代表与结构真实为核心，构建出中国资本市场真正意义上的"中场新核心"。 相比沪深 ...

我们先通过一张示意图直观感受资产配置的重要性与意义。资产价格总会波动，无论是国内外资产，拉长到年度维度看，大多呈现震荡上行的特征。假设 我们有两类资产，走势不同且呈一定负相关，但长期均震荡上行，若两者收益率相近，单独选择任一资产都可行，但更优解是做资产配置——将资金各 50%分配给两类资产。在理想情况下，这两类资产长期收益率均上行，但受宏观因素、基本面、资金结构等影响，各自会出现阶段性回撤，而分散配置 后，虽长期收益率与单独持有相近，但资产回撤和波动会大幅降低，能显著改善投资持有体验。 在此背景下，十年国债ETF（511260）核心价值凸显。十年国债ETF（511260）是唯一跟踪上证十年期国债指数的产品，持仓透明无风格漂移，历史上每 年均实现正收益，具备低波动、稳健收益特征，且支持日内回转交易、质押加杠杆等功能，综合费率仅0.2%，操作便捷、成本优势显著。结合年底债券 配置的历史规律与明年宽松政策预期，十年国债ETF（511260）是震荡市中平衡组合风险、把握债市机会的优选工具，当前具备较高布局价值。 风险提示： 这张图生动揭示了资产配置的核心逻辑：寻找相关性较低的资产进行资金分散，也就是我们常说的"不要把 ...