Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 4000 points after ten years, with a peak of 4025.7 points reached last Thursday[6] - The power equipment sector led the market with a 4.29% increase, while the communication sector fell by 3.59%[6] Financial Data - The margin trading balance has surpassed 2.5 trillion yuan, indicating a shift in risk appetite for leveraged funds[6] - Northbound trading volume increased by 19% to an average of 265.7 billion yuan, with stock ETFs seeing a net inflow of 760 million yuan[6] Economic Indicators - Industrial added value growth is expected to decline to approximately 5.5% year-on-year in October[4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to decrease by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to drop by 2.2%[4] Investment Trends - Retail sales growth is anticipated to slow to around 1% due to weakened consumption in sectors like automobiles[4] - Export growth is forecasted at 2.5% for October, facing challenges from high base effects[4] Credit and Investment - New credit issuance is expected to remain weak, with an estimated 300 billion yuan in new loans for October[4] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth is projected to rebound but will still show a cumulative decline of about 0.8%[4]

Core Insights - The recent consensus between China and the U.S. on expanding agricultural trade has relieved American soybean farmers, who are optimistic about renewed purchases from Chinese companies [3][11]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Tariffs - In response to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, China has imposed a 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans and pork starting March 10, 2025 [5]. - Following the U.S. government's announcement of reciprocal tariffs, China increased tariffs on all U.S. imports by 34% [7]. - The tariff rate on U.S. goods was further raised to 84% in April [9]. Group 2: Impact on Soybean Market - China's import tariff on U.S. soybeans surged from 3% to 97% after the tariff increases [11]. - Despite a temporary suspension of certain tariffs in May, U.S. soybean exports to China have not improved, with reports indicating that China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since then [11]. - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with only 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S., highlighting the significant drop in U.S. market share [13]. Group 3: Storage and Supply Issues - Due to unsold soybean stock, U.S. soybean inventories exceeded expectations, reaching 1.008 billion bushels as of June 1, a 3.9% increase year-on-year [13]. - A concrete warehouse in Martin, Illinois, collapsed under the weight of approximately 816 tons of soybeans, illustrating the severe storage issues faced by U.S. farmers [13][15]. Group 4: Industry Concerns - The American Soybean Association has expressed concerns over financial pressures on farmers due to tariffs and reduced sales, urging the government to negotiate a new trade agreement with China [15]. - The total value of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 is projected to be around $24.5 billion, with over $12.5 billion attributed to orders from China [17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding the expansion of agricultural trade, which has relieved American soybean farmers [2][11] - The U.S. government previously imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports citing fentanyl concerns, leading to a reciprocal 10% tariff on U.S. soybeans and pork by China starting March 10, 2025 [3][11] - Following the tariff increases, China's import tariff on U.S. soybeans surged from 3% to 97%, significantly impacting U.S. soybean exports to China [11][13] Group 2 - Despite a temporary agreement in May to suspend certain tariffs, U.S. soybean exports to China have not improved, with reports indicating that China has ceased purchasing U.S. soybeans since then [11][13] - In 2024, China imported approximately 105 million tons of soybeans, with only 22.13 million tons sourced from the U.S., contrasting sharply with Mexico's imports of less than 6 million tons [13] - The U.S. soybean inventory has exceeded expectations, with a total of 1.008 billion bushels reported as of June 1, 2023, marking a 3.9% increase year-on-year [13][15] Group 3 - The American Soybean Association has expressed significant financial pressure on farmers due to tariffs, reduced sales, and rising costs, urging the government to adjust policies and negotiate new trade agreements with China [15][17] - The total value of U.S. soybean exports in 2024 is projected to be around $24.5 billion, with over $12.5 billion attributed to orders from China [17]

每经编辑｜许绍航 10月30日，商务部新闻发言人介绍了中美吉隆坡经贸磋商达成的主要成果。 图源：央视网财经 其中，中美就扩大农产品贸易达成共识的消息让美国豆农如释重负，美国明尼苏达州大豆种植者协会副主席瑞安·麦全顿称："我松了一口气，真的很感激 达成了共识"。他们对中国采购企业再次光临充满期待。 图源：央视网财经 据悉，今年3月3日，美国政府宣布以芬太尼为由对所有中国输美商品进一步加征10%关税，作为回应，国务院批准，自2025年3月10日起对大豆、猪肉等 产品加征10%关税。 今年4月4日，因美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"，国务院宣布对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率的基础上加征34%关税。 4月8日，美国政府宣布对中国输美商品征收"对等关税"的税率由34%提高至84%，国务院批准对美加征关税税率，也由34%提高至84%。 据中国三农发布，经过关税加征后，中国对美国大豆进口关税率已从3%提高至97%。 尽管今年5月，中美双方达成共识，美国将暂停2025年4月2日第14257号行政令中24%的关税（90天内生效），并取消14259号、14266号行政令加征的关 税。中国同步调整反制措施 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The domestic pure benzene market will maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term, with high inventory and weak demand hindering price rebounds. Attention should be paid to port destocking rhythm and downstream start - up changes [2] - The styrene market will continue its weak consolidation trend. If downstream orders do not improve significantly, styrene will remain under the dual constraints of high inventory and low demand, and the price center may continue to decline. Attention should be paid to subsequent import rhythm and device maintenance dynamics [3] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Information - Price: On October 30, the styrene main contract closed down 1.41% at 6421 yuan/ton, with a basis of 9 (+62 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed down 1.47% at 5445 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5350 yuan/ton (-60 yuan/ton), Brent crude oil closed at 60.5 US dollars/barrel (+0.3 US dollars/barrel), and WTI crude oil closed at 64.9 US dollars/barrel (+0.5 US dollars/barrel) [2] - Inventory: Styrene port inventory was 19.3 tons (-1 ton), a month - on - month destocking of 4.7%; pure benzene port inventory was 8.5 tons (-1.4 tons), a month - on - month destocking of 14.1% [2] - Supply: Styrene's weekly output was 32.3 tons (-0.4 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 66.7% (-2.5%) [2] - Demand: The overall demand of downstream 3S industries improved. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 62.2% (+0.2%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 72.1% (-0.7%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 52.0% (-1.8%) [2] (2) Views - Pure benzene: The domestic pure benzene market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Supply is abundant, imports increase port inventory, demand recovery is limited, and the cost - side support is weak [2] - Styrene: The styrene market continues to be weak. Supply is marginally loose, demand is cautious, and high port inventory suppresses the market [3] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Price Data - Styrene futures and spot prices declined, and the basis increased. Pure benzene futures and spot prices also declined, and the spread between domestic and imported pure benzene widened [5] - The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil increased slightly, while the price of naphtha remained unchanged [5] (2) Output and Inventory Data - Styrene production decreased by 1.09% to 32.3 tons, and pure benzene production increased by 0.66% to 42.9 tons [6] - Both styrene port and factory inventories decreased, and pure benzene port inventory decreased by 14.14% [6] (3) Capacity Utilization Data - Among pure benzene downstream industries, the capacity utilization rates of styrene and caprolactam decreased, while those of phenol and aniline increased [7] - Among styrene downstream industries, the EPS capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the ABS and PS capacity utilization rates decreased [7] 3. Industry News - Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on China has been cancelled, China is expected to resume "substantial" purchases of US soybeans, and Beijing will postpone the implementation of rare - earth export controls by one year and re - examine the plan [8] - US inflation data in September were lower than expected, increasing the prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut [8] - On the early morning of October 30, the Fed adjusted the interest - rate ceiling to 4% as expected [8] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple charts including pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, and inventory and capacity utilization rate of related products [9][13][16]

Core Points - The recent announcement from China's Ministry of Commerce signals a significant development in the US-China trade relationship, indicating that the 24% tariffs on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for another year, reflecting a fragile balance rather than a new agreement [1][2] - This suspension of tariffs is crucial as it allows a large number of Chinese products to enter the US market at relatively normal tax rates, preventing a potential cost surge for exporters, global supply chains, and US consumers [2] - The agreement reached in Kuala Lumpur encompasses broader issues beyond tariffs, indicating a systematic exchange of interests and risk management between the two nations [3][5] Tariff Significance - The 24% tariff is a symbolic "high-pressure line" in the trade conflict, representing the peak of US-China trade tensions, and its continued suspension is a relief for many stakeholders [2] - The language used in the announcement emphasizes a principle of reciprocity, highlighting that concessions from China are closely tied to US actions, reinforcing a "you do for me, I do for you" mentality [2] Broader Implications - The agreement includes the cancellation of the 10% "fentanyl tariff" and the suspension of controversial export controls, indicating an effort to de-escalate multiple points of contention simultaneously [5] - The mention of resolving the TikTok issue suggests a strategic separation of economic and geopolitical concerns, aiming to prevent further escalation of tensions [5] Underlying Signals - The term "continue to suspend" rather than "cancel" indicates that fundamental structural differences remain, and domestic political pressures in the US towards a hardline stance on China persist [7] - The one-year suspension serves as both a buffer and a testing period for both sides to demonstrate goodwill and build mutual trust for future negotiations [7] - China's use of the term "joint arrangement" reflects a focus on equality and negotiation, showcasing a mature diplomatic approach [7] Global Reactions - The swift response from global markets and media underscores the interconnectedness of the US-China relationship with the world economy, with the suspension providing a much-needed stabilizing factor [6] - The ability of the two largest economies to manage their differences through dialogue is viewed as a positive signal for the global economic landscape [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hisense Home Appliances is maintained as "Buy" [7] Core Views - The report highlights that Hisense's global layout is entering a harvest period, with significant synergy effects from its multi-brand matrix [1] - The company's Q3 performance was below expectations, primarily due to weak demand for central air conditioning and declining profitability in home appliances [7] - Despite short-term pressures, the report anticipates that emerging markets will become a major growth driver for the company, with overseas revenue expected to increase [7] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at 93.995 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 1.3% [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 3.467 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [6] - The report indicates a decrease in earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, now estimated at 34.7 billion yuan, 39.4 billion yuan, and 43.5 billion yuan respectively [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve gradually from 21.3% in 2025 to 22.1% in 2027 [6] Market Data - As of October 30, 2025, the closing price of Hisense shares is 25.14 yuan, with a market capitalization of 23,082 million yuan [2] - The stock has a price-to-book ratio of 2.1 and a dividend yield of 4.89% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 0.25% as expected, while three issuing banks have also reduced their prime rates by 0.125%. The market's expectation for further rate cuts in December has cooled, indicating uncertainty in future interest rate trends [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates aligns with market expectations, impacting the prime rates of local banks [1]. - The adjustment of the prime rate is a commercial decision by individual banks, influenced by their funding costs and business strategies [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Positive signals from the recent meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. suggest a potential signing of a trade agreement, which may alleviate market uncertainties and inflation pressures, supporting a more accommodative monetary policy [1]. - The Hong Kong banking system's liquidity has tightened, with interbank liquidity falling to approximately HKD 54 billion, leading to expectations of narrow fluctuations in the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) [1]. - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market has exceeded HKD 250 billion this year, indicating improved investor sentiment and a projected economic growth of 2% to 3% for Hong Kong, in line with government forecasts [1]. Group 3: Future Projections - HIBOR is expected to follow the downward trend of U.S. interest rates, which will benefit corporate clients by reducing their funding costs [2]. - The interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. is anticipated to narrow gradually, which is favorable for Hong Kong's economic development [1].

在全球经济波动和地缘政治紧张加剧的大背景下，美国大豆行业正经历一场前所未有的危机。尽管今年美国的大豆产量创下了历史新高，但由于与 中国的贸易摩擦，豆农们却面临着严峻的经营挑战。这种矛盾的局面反映出当前中美关系的复杂性，以及美国政府在面对国际事务时所需解决的深 层问题。 今年，美国的大豆亩产量达到过去三十年来的最高水平。然而，令人痛心的是，中国作为美国大豆的主要买家，由于高额关税而暂停了采购。这使 得数以万计的美国豆农感到无比焦虑。根据农业部的数据显示，超过52%的大豆可能无法找到市场，许多农户甚至考虑转行。因此，美国豆农对特 朗普政府的对华政策普遍感到失望，呼吁采取更为温和的谈判策略，以避免进一步损害自身利益。 这种所谓的"双重身份"引来了更大的质疑。拥有农田并不能完全等同于理解普通农民的实际处境。他每年的租金收入超过100万美元，与普通农民面 临的市场风险相比，显得异常轻松。在这样的背景下，贝森特如何能够真正理解普通豆农的艰难险阻？显然，他与基层农民之间存在着一道不可逾 越的鸿沟。作为负责与中方谈判的美国财政部长贝森特，却完全没有对美国豆农的遭遇"感同身受"，也没有拿出正确的对华态度，引得美国豆农们 更加不 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Add" for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to a decline in overseas orders influenced by US-China trade tensions, with a 16% year-on-year drop in non-recurring profit for the first three quarters of 2025 [2] - The company reported a revenue of 346 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.64%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 66 million yuan, a decrease of 3.92% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 41.04%, down 0.58 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 19.03%, down 1.73 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company expects total revenue to reach 580.67 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.01%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 137.77 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.50% [1][10] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 1.09 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 30.40 based on the latest diluted EPS [1][10] - The company’s contract liabilities increased by 31% compared to the beginning of the year, driven by customer prepayments for high-pressure sterilization equipment [3] Business Development and Market Position - The company has significant advantages in the rubber hose industry and is expanding horizontally into liquid cooling, nuclear power, and marine hoses, while vertically integrating high-pressure equipment to enter the food processing sector [4] - The company has completed sample trials for various nuclear power hoses and is in the process of supplying samples for liquid cooling hoses to potential customers [4] - The company is focusing on the high-pressure industry chain and steadily advancing its business layout in high polymer materials and high-pressure equipment [4]