Electricity Consumption - In October, total electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%[5] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries were 13.2%, 6.2%, and 17.1% respectively, with residential electricity consumption growing by 23.9%[5] - The tertiary industry and urban-rural residents contributed 5.9 percentage points to the overall electricity consumption growth[5] Employment Data - In September, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the expected 51,000[7] - The unemployment rate in the U.S. reached 4.4%, the highest since October 2021, up from the previous value of 4.3%[7] Japan's Bond Yield - As of November 21, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.8%, marking a significant increase and reaching levels not seen since 2008[17] - The 40-year bond yield peaked at 3.73%, while the 30-year yield reached 3.36%[17] China-Japan Relations - The Chinese Ministry of Culture and Tourism advised citizens to avoid traveling to Japan, impacting Japanese tourism and consumer stocks significantly[10] - China's suspension of Japanese seafood imports due to nuclear contamination concerns has led to a drastic drop in Japan's seafood export value to China, falling over 90% from 2022 levels[10] Youth Unemployment - In October, the unemployment rate for urban youth aged 16-24 was 17.3%, while the rate for those aged 25-29 was 7.2%[13] - The total estimated unemployed population in China for the 16-59 age group is approximately 41.95 million, with an overall estimate of around 45 million[13]

Core Viewpoint - The recent government shutdown in the U.S. was expected to boost the cryptocurrency market, but Bitcoin and the overall crypto market have failed to recover, with Bitcoin dropping below $100,000 and nearing $90,000, erasing all gains made in 2025 [2] Market Performance - Bitcoin reached a historical high of $126,000 on October 6, 2025, but has since fallen over 28%, currently trading around $90,000 [2] - The recent decline is characterized by a "death cross" pattern, with Bitcoin breaking below the critical 50-week moving average, historically indicating the end of bull markets [2] Macro Environment - Investor expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have diminished, with only a 48.6% probability remaining for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The macroeconomic environment has worsened, leading to significant sell-offs and concentrated liquidations of leveraged positions, exacerbating the downward trend [3] Market Sentiment - The current market conditions are attributed to a combination of short-term liquidity issues, persistent selling pressure, and weak investor sentiment rather than a single triggering factor [4] - Despite easing tensions in U.S.-China relations, Bitcoin struggles to find support, with liquidity remaining thin since the market crash on October 10 [4] Institutional Involvement - Unlike previous bear markets, Bitcoin has seen increased institutional participation, with major financial institutions accepting Bitcoin as collateral, indicating a maturation of the asset class [5] - Recent data shows that most investors selling Bitcoin are still in profit, suggesting a lack of panic selling or large-scale margin calls [5] Investment Strategies - Analysts recommend that retail investors avoid trying to time the market and instead adopt a dollar-cost averaging approach for long-term investments [6] - Long-term investors should focus on macro signals rather than solely technical trends, as Bitcoin's potential for recovery is tied to global liquidity conditions [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the market performance, fundamentals, and provides trading strategies for various commodity futures, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It also points out that each commodity has its own supply - demand characteristics and market influencing factors, and investors should make decisions based on these factors and market signals. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Gold rebounded at night on Tuesday, with London gold back above $4000. The US employment data was weak, and domestic gold ETFs continued to flow in. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level [4]. - Silver's tight situation is gradually easing, and it is recommended to gradually reduce long positions [4]. Base Metals - Copper prices oscillated weakly. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and domestic weekly start - up data improved. It is advisable to wait for clearer macro signals [3]. - Aluminum prices may continue to decline in the short term. The electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [3]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weak. Some alumina plants carried out early maintenance or reduced loads, and the supply - demand surplus pattern was difficult to change [5]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton. The supply decreased slightly, and the organic silicon industry planned to cut production by 30% [5]. - Lithium carbonate prices have support in the short term but face weak long - term expectations. The demand was strong in November - December, but the long - term demand was expected to decline [5]. - Polysilicon prices are affected by news. The supply decreased slightly, and the market was disturbed by news, so it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Tin prices oscillated strongly. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the market was concerned about the continued low exports from Indonesia [5]. Black Industry - Rebar futures are undervalued, and hot - rolled coil futures are overvalued. The supply and demand of steel were weak, and the structural differentiation was significant. It is recommended to hold short positions in hot - rolled coil 2605 [7]. - Iron ore prices may decline. The supply and demand of iron ore were weak, and the futures were in a forward - discount structure [7]. - Coking coal prices may decline. The steel mills continued to lose money, and the coking coal futures were in a forward - premium structure [7]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal: US soybeans are short - term strong, but the bullish factors have basically emerged. The domestic market may be weak in the short term, and the medium - term trend depends on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [8]. - Corn: As the supply of corn in Northeast China is approaching, the futures price is expected to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [9]. - Oils: The overall trend of oils is expected to be oscillating and strong. Attention should be paid to future production and biodiesel policies [9]. - Sugar: It is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options. The international sugar market may decline in the long term, and the domestic market will follow [9]. - Cotton: It is recommended to wait and see. The international cotton harvest rate was lower than in previous years, and the domestic commercial inventory was higher [9]. - Eggs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply pressure decreased, but the demand was weak [9]. - Pigs: The futures price is expected to be weak. The supply was abundant, and the demand increased seasonally [9]. - Apples: It is recommended to wait and see. The high - quality apple production decreased, and the inventory decreased [10]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: In the short term, it will oscillate, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand declined [10]. - PVC: It is recommended to short or conduct a reverse spread. The supply increased, and the demand was weak [10]. - PTA: It is recommended to short the processing margin in the far - month contracts. The supply pressure was large in the long term [10]. - Rubber: It is recommended to operate in a band - trading manner. The raw material prices were strong, and the inventory increased [10][11]. - Glass: It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory was high [11]. - PP: In the short term, it will oscillate weakly, and in the long term, it is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure increased, and the demand was weak [11]. - MEG: It is recommended to short at high prices. The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the demand entered the off - season [11]. - Crude oil: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply was affected by sanctions and geopolitical risks, and the demand was in the off - season [11][12]. - Styrene: In the short term, it will oscillate. The supply and demand improved marginally, but the overall contradiction was still large [12]. - Soda ash: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply and demand were balanced [12]. - Urea: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was in the off - season, but the export news had a certain impact [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Various commodity futures markets show different trends and characteristics, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on market performance, fundamentals, etc. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market price dropped on Friday, with London gold falling below $4,100/ounce. The US will release multiple economic data, and Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Domestic gold ETFs continue to flow in, and inventories in different places change. It is recommended to buy at the lower support level. [1] - **Silver**: There is a short - squeeze situation. It is recommended to gradually reduce long positions. [1] Base Metals - **Copper**: Price was weak on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the probability of a December interest rate cut is low. Supply is tight, and demand has improved. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [2] - **Aluminum**: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract fell on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand has slightly improved. Overseas supply disturbances have pushed up prices, but the short - term trend depends on the movement of main funds. [2] - **Alumina**: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Supply is in surplus, and some factories are overhauling or reducing production. The price is expected to be oscillatory and weak in the short term. [3] - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is supported. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,600 - 9,400, and it is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of the main contract fell on Friday. Current demand is high, but the long - term demand is expected to decline. It is recommended to try long positions at low levels and be cautious about chasing high prices, or consider selling put options. [3] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply has decreased, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to wait and see. [3] - **Tin**: Price oscillated weakly on Friday. The market traded Fed officials' hawkish remarks, and the supply of tin ore is tight. It is recommended to treat it with an oscillatory mindset. [4] Black Industry - **Rebar Steel**: The main contract price rose slightly. Steel supply and demand are weak, and there is a significant structural differentiation. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the hot - rolled coil contract. [5] - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price rose slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the price is expected to decline marginally. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the iron ore contract. [5] - **Coking Coal**: The main contract price fell slightly. Supply and demand are weak, and the futures valuation is high. It is recommended to wait and see and try to short the coking coal contract. [5] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fell on Friday. Supply is shrinking, and demand is growing rigidly. The US soybeans are expected to oscillate, and the domestic market is relatively strong in the short term. [6] - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and some spot prices weakened. Supply is delayed due to weather, and there is a short - term supply - demand tightness, but the long - term price is expected to decline. It is recommended to sell hedging at high prices. [7] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices showed different trends. The supply of Malaysian palm oil is high in the near term and is expected to decrease seasonally in the long term. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy. [7] - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar showed different trends. The international market is affected by India's export policy, and the domestic market will follow the international trend. It is recommended to short in the futures market or sell call options. [7] - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell, and domestic cotton prices oscillated narrowly. International data adjustments are negative for cotton prices. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] - **Eggs**: Futures and spot prices fell. Supply pressure has decreased, and demand has weakened. The price is expected to oscillate weakly. [7] - **Pigs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices fell. Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to oscillate in a range. [7] - **Apples**: The main contract price rose last week. Due to extreme weather, the supply of high - quality apples is reduced, and the price is high. It is recommended to wait and see. [7] Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [8] - **PVC**: The main contract price fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is less than expected. It is recommended to short. [8] - **PTA**: PX and PTA prices have different trends. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to take profit on long positions in PX and short the processing fee in PTA. [8] - **Rubber**: The main contract price fell on Friday. Supply is expected to increase, and it is recommended to oscillate between 14,500 - 15,500. [9] - **Glass**: The main contract price fell. Supply has decreased, and demand is weak. It is recommended to use a reverse spread or short strategy. [9] - **PP**: The main contract price oscillated slightly on Friday. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to oscillate weakly in the short term and short at high prices in the long term. [9] - **MEG**: The spot price is given. Supply pressure is high in the long term, and it is recommended to short at high prices above the 01 contract. [9] - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated this week due to the game between fundamental negatives and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term and short at high prices if Russian oil production reduction is less than expected. [9][10] - **Styrene**: The main contract price rebounded slightly on Friday. Supply and demand are improving in the short term but are weak in the long term. It is recommended to oscillate in the short term. [10] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract price fell. Supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to wait and see. [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the dual nature of Mexico, highlighting its challenges with drug trafficking and violence alongside its potential as a growing market for businesses, particularly for Chinese companies looking to expand into North America and Latin America [4][10]. Group 1: Drug Trafficking and Violence - Mexico has become a hub for drug production and trafficking, with a significant portion of its economy reliant on the drug trade, which has led to widespread violence and corruption [6][8]. - As of 2023, approximately 47.7 million Americans aged 12 and older have illegally used drugs in the past month, representing about 16.8% of that age group [5]. - The drug trade has deeply infiltrated Mexican society, with drug cartels employing around 175,000 people, making them one of the largest employers in the country, surpassing major corporations like Pemex [7][8]. Group 2: Economic Opportunities - Despite the challenges, Mexico is viewed as a critical node in global supply chains, especially for Chinese brands seeking to access the U.S. market amid trade tensions [9][10]. - The country has a population of 130 million and ranks 11th globally in GDP, with a higher per capita GDP than China, indicating significant market potential [23]. - The Mexican government has been actively working to attract foreign investment, particularly from Chinese companies, by offering favorable conditions for manufacturing and trade [23][30]. Group 3: Business Environment and Cultural Differences - The business environment in Mexico requires foreign companies to adapt to local customs and practices, emphasizing the importance of building relationships and trust [25][27]. - There are significant cultural differences between Chinese and Mexican work ethics, with Mexicans valuing work-life balance and personal relationships more than the often intense work culture found in China [26][27]. - Security remains a major concern for businesses, with many companies investing in security measures and navigating a landscape where corruption is prevalent [18][19][20].

Group 1: Core Insights - The trade friction between China and the U.S. has been ongoing for years, but recent signs of easing have created a complex situation for surrounding countries, particularly the EU [1][3] - A preliminary consensus has been reached in U.S.-China trade negotiations, with China maintaining a proactive stance and core interests while the U.S. seeks stable rare earth supplies [3][11] - The agreement includes a one-year extension of tariffs, reducing certain tariffs to 10%, which is lower than those faced by Japan and South Korea, enhancing the attractiveness of China's supply chain [3][11] Group 2: Germany and EU Response - Germany has quickly shifted its stance, with Chancellor Merz emphasizing the need for Europe to not let the U.S. and China dictate technological futures, launching a "German High-Tech Agenda" [7][9] - The EU has historically attempted to benefit from the U.S.-China rivalry but has not gained significant advantages, leading to a strategic shortfall as the U.S. focuses on other allies [11][13] - The shift in Germany's position highlights the urgency for the EU to pursue technological independence, although internal divisions among member states may hinder cohesive action [11][13] Group 3: Global Trade Dynamics - The recent consensus between China and the U.S. is expected to reshape global trade dynamics, with Japan and South Korea investing heavily to secure lower tariffs, while the EU faces potential losses [13] - China's role as a stabilizer in global trade is emphasized, with trade agreements like RCEP and CPTPP gaining importance amid shifting geopolitical landscapes [13] - The need for substantive actions from Germany and the EU is critical to avoid further industrial pressures, as mere verbal commitments may not suffice [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold market: Suggest buying at the lower support level for gold, and consider gradually reducing long positions for silver due to a potential short squeeze [2]. - Basic metals: For copper, maintain a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation; for electrolytic aluminum, be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view; for alumina, expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. - Industrial silicon: The supply contraction is expected to be greater than the demand contraction, and the price is expected to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Polysilicon: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. - Tin: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. - Black industry: For rebar, iron ore, and coking coal, mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting relevant contracts [5][6]. - Agricultural products: For soybeans, focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report; for corn, expect short - term price oscillations; for palm oil, focus on production and biodiesel policies; for sugar, short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for eggs and pigs, expect price oscillations [7][8]. - Energy and chemical industry: For LLDPE and PP, suggest short - term oscillations and long - term short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage; for PVC, suggest short positions; for PTA, take profit on long positions and short processing fees in the far - month; for rubber, expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations; for glass, suggest a wait - and - see approach; for MEG, short at high levels; for crude oil, short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day; for styrene, expect short - term oscillations; for soda ash, suggest a wait - and - see approach [9][10][11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Market - Market performance: Overnight precious metal prices oscillated at high levels, with London gold closing at $4145 per ounce [2]. - Fundamentals: Trump's chief economic advisor mentioned potential job losses due to the government shutdown; multiple Fed officials expressed different views on interest rates. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various regions, and the holdings of major ETFs also changed [2]. - Trading strategy: Suggest buying gold at the lower support level and gradually reducing long positions for silver [2]. Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices rose and then fell yesterday [3]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and there were spot discounts in East and South China [3]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a short - term view of a slightly bullish oscillation [3]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased by 0.78% compared to the previous trading day, and the LME price was $2906.5 per ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate decreased slightly [3]. - Trading strategy: Be cautious of short - term corrections and maintain a long - term bullish view [3]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 0.67% compared to the previous trading day [3]. - Fundamentals: Alumina plants had stable production, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations and focus on active industry production cuts [3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened lower and oscillated widely, closing at 9145 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces decreased, and both social and warehouse inventories decreased slightly. The demand from polysilicon supported the market, while the organic silicon monomer industry planned to cut production by 30% [4]. - Trading strategy: Expect the price to range between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Polysilicon - Market performance: The main 01 contract opened higher and oscillated narrowly, closing at 54195 yuan/ton, an increase of 735 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - Fundamentals: The weekly output decreased slightly, and both industry and warehouse inventories increased. Downstream product prices were stable, and the production schedules of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased [4]. - Trading strategy: With the progress of the near - month storage platform falling short of expectations, suggest a wait - and - see approach [4]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices rose and then fell yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and domestic monetary and credit data were below expectations. The supply of tin ore remained tight, and domestic warehouse receipts increased [4]. - Trading strategy: Pay attention to the adjustment risk as the price approaches the pressure level of 300,000 yuan [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of rebar closed at 3048 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials decreased, and the production also decreased significantly. The futures discount narrowed, and the valuation was neutral [5]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of iron ore closed at 776.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The port inventory increased, and the number of ships at berth also increased. The iron ore supply - demand situation weakened marginally, and the valuation was neutral [5][6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1214 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: The molten iron output increased, and the steel mill profits deteriorated. The third round of price increases for coking coal was implemented, and the futures valuation was high [6]. - Trading strategy: Mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach and consider shorting the 2601 contract [6]. Agricultural Products Soybeans - Market performance: CBOT soybeans were slightly bullish in the short term [7]. - Fundamentals: The US soybean harvest was nearing completion, and the market expected the USDA to lower the US soybean yield. South American soybeans were in the sowing stage with an expected increase in production. The demand for crushing and exports improved [7]. - Trading strategy: Focus on the fulfillment of the USDA report, and the domestic market is relatively bullish in the short term, with the medium - term trend depending on tariff policies and production in the producing areas [7]. Corn - Market performance: Corn futures prices oscillated narrowly, while spot prices continued to rise [7]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The demand from deep - processing enterprises was strong, but the effective supply was insufficient in the short term. The new - crop corn was expected to increase in production, which would suppress the long - term price [7]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term price oscillations and suggest a wait - and - see approach [7]. Palm Oil - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil market rose slightly yesterday [7]. - Fundamentals: The production in Malaysia in October increased, and the export also increased. The near - term inventory continued to accumulate, while there was an expected seasonal production decline in the long term [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a reverse arbitrage strategy and focus on future production and biodiesel policies [7]. Sugar - Market performance: The 01 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5498 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.18% [7]. - Fundamentals: Globally, the supply surplus expectation was increasing, and the raw sugar price reached a five - year low. In China, the market showed an internal - strong and external - weak pattern, but it would eventually follow the decline of raw sugar [7][8]. - Trading strategy: Short in the futures market and sell call options [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures prices fell overnight, and international crude oil prices oscillated narrowly [8]. - Fundamentals: The USDA's US cotton export data was released. The Brazilian cotton production was expected to increase. In China, the Xinjiang cotton purchase was almost completed, and the textile enterprise yarn inventory increased [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach and focus on the range of 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton [8]. Eggs - Market performance: Egg futures and spot prices both fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The egg production inventory decreased, and the demand weakened after Double Eleven [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Pigs - Market performance: Pig futures prices rebounded, while spot prices fell [8]. - Fundamentals: The pig supply was still abundant, but the demand was expected to increase seasonally, and the price was expected to oscillate at a low level [8]. - Trading strategy: Expect price oscillations [8]. Energy and Chemical Industry LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in North China was 6790 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [9]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the domestic supply pressure slowed down. The import window was closed, and the downstream demand weakened [9]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [9]. PVC - Market performance: The V01 contract closed at 4585 yuan, unchanged [9]. - Fundamentals: The PVC ex - factory price decreased, and the supply increased. The demand from downstream factories recovered less than expected, and the social inventory was high [9][10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest short positions due to weak supply and demand [10]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX was $821 per ton, and the PTA spot price in East China was 4600 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: The domestic supply of PX was high, and the overall import volume increased. The PTA supply pressure was large in the long term, and the polyester factory load was high [10]. - Trading strategy: Take profit on long positions for PX and short processing fees in the far - month for PTA [10]. Rubber - Market performance: The RU2601 contract oscillated upward, closing at 15390 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% [10]. - Fundamentals: The prices of Thai rubber raw materials increased slightly, and the tire factory utilization rates and inventories changed [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term strength and medium - term oscillations [10]. Glass - Market performance: The FG01 contract closed at 1055 yuan, an increase of 0.3% [10]. - Fundamentals: The glass inventory suppressed the price, and the downstream demand was weak. The production profit varied by process [10]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach as the supply - demand is weak and the downside space is limited [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract oscillated slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6430 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened [10]. - Fundamentals: The new device was put into operation, and the supply pressure increased. The downstream demand weakened [10]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations and suggest short positions or month - spread reverse arbitrage in the long term [10][11]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China was 3981 yuan/ton, and the basis was 68 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply pressure was large in the long term, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. The polyester factory load was high, but the downstream demand weakened [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels for the 01 contract [11]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The sc contract fell sharply and then rebounded slightly [11]. - Fundamentals: The supply risk of Russian oil increased, and the OPEC + planned to increase production moderately. The demand in Europe and the US was seasonally weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Short at high levels if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day [11]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract rebounded slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6480 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamentals: The pure benzene and styrene inventories were at normal - to - high levels. The short - term supply - demand improved, but the long - term situation was still weak [11]. - Trading strategy: Expect short - term oscillations, with the upside space limited by the import window [11]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA01 contract closed at 1240 yuan, an increase of 1.8% [11]. - Fundamentals: The soda ash supply was stable, and the upstream had a price - supporting attitude. The inventory was balanced, and the downstream demand from photovoltaic glass was stable [11][12]. - Trading strategy: Suggest a wait - and - see approach [12].

11月10日起，中美同时松开拳头，在同一时间各自后退三步，调整关税与管控政策，外界称这是"罕见 的同步降温"。美国降低了部分商品关税、延长301条款豁免清单，暂停出口管制和港口附加费一年；中 国则继续暂停对美24%的加征关税一年、保留10%税率，并同步暂停部分港口费政策。 乍一看，这像是一场"互相示好"的姿态，但仔细分析，会发现——这更像是一次战术性的"喘息"，一场 从硬对抗转向精细博弈的调整。 特朗普二次上台后，中美贸易摩擦一路升级。美国动辄以"国家安全"为由，对中国商品加重税，限制进 入；中国则以对等措施回击，甚至加强了关键资源的出口管控。但长期对抗下来，双方都发现：这场消 耗战，成本太高。 对美国而言，通胀高企、供应链混乱，制造业原料成本大幅上升。大家心里都清楚，关税不是打击中国 的武器，而是惩罚美国消费者的税。对中国而言，出口和航运确实受到一定压力，尤其在全球需求疲软 的大背景下，维持贸易链稳定比强硬反制更能守住基本盘。所以这次双暂停，是双方在高压博弈下 的"理性止损"：既不认输，也不激化，先稳一稳再说。 表面上看，中方似乎"放松"了对美出口限制，但实质上，是从"硬封锁"转向了"可控放行+动态监管"。 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - In October, the manufacturing PMI recorded 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from September's 49.8%, indicating continued pressure on the macro economy with weak manufacturing sentiment [2] - The CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year in September, while the PPI fell by 2.3%, showing a narrowing decline compared to August [2] Group 2: A-Share Market Performance - A-shares experienced a mixed performance in October, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.85% and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 1.10% [3] - The coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals sectors saw gains exceeding 5%, while electronics, automotive, beauty care, and media sectors declined by over 3% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed a mixed performance in October, with medium to long-term government bond yields declining, while short-term yields increased slightly [4] - The overall return of the bond market, as reflected by the China Bond Index, rose by 0.73% in October [4] Group 4: Global Economic Performance - The US Markit Composite PMI rose to 54.8 in October, up 1.2 percentage points from September, indicating expansion [5] - Major overseas stock indices mostly rose in October, with the Nikkei 225 and S&P 500 showing average gains of 3.92% and 2.27%, respectively [5] Group 5: Fund Performance - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a decline of 0.87% in October, with equity funds showing a 1.62% drop [13] - Fixed income funds generally performed well, with the Morningstar China Bond Index rising by 0.40% [13] Group 6: QDII Fund Performance - Global emerging market equity and bond mixed funds and US equity funds recorded average returns of 7.60% and 3.27%, respectively, benefiting from strong overseas market performance [17]

Global Economic Outlook - Global economic momentum faces challenges in the first half of 2026 due to US-China trade tensions, tariff pressures, and weak demand [4] - Economic recovery is expected in the second half of 2026 with monetary and fiscal policy easing, such as the US's "dual easing" and fiscal stimulus in Europe and Japan [4] - Major risks include asynchronous economic and policy cycles across countries, potentially leading to asset price volatility [4] Performance of Major Economies - The US economy relies on AI-related sectors, but short-term productivity gains from AI are limited; tariffs have raised inflation (effective tariff rate at 12.6%), suppressing consumption and investment [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2026 (to 3.25%-3.5%), with gradual improvement in the labor market as the economy rebounds [4] - Europe has inflation nearing the 2% target with neutral monetary policy, while Japan continues normalizing its monetary policy, with rates potentially rising to 1.25% by the end of 2026 [4] Asset Performance - US Treasury yields may dip in the short term but could rise again due to debt pressures; the dollar remains stable, and US stocks (S&P 500 expected to reach 7500 points) and European stocks have upside potential [4] China Economic Outlook Growth Momentum - China's GDP growth is projected at around 5% for 2025, but significant year-on-year pressure is expected in Q4; 2026 GDP is forecasted to decline to 4.5% due to reduced export contributions and slight deceleration in consumption [4] - The outlook for 2027 may improve slightly due to export recovery and narrowing declines in real estate [4] Key Sector Analysis - Real Estate: The down cycle continues with inventory-sales ratios at 25-30 months (normal is 15 months), leading to negative wealth effects from falling prices; policies should focus on lowering mortgage rates, accelerating inventory reduction, and promoting household registration reforms [4] - Consumption: 2025 H1 may see a boost from "trade-in" subsidies, but 2026 faces pressures from moderate income growth and negative wealth effects from housing prices; social security reforms are needed to enhance consumer confidence [4] - Investment: Manufacturing and infrastructure investments may have overshot in H2 2025; a slight recovery is expected in 2026, but growth will remain in low single digits [4] - Exports: 2025 exports may grow by 5.4%, but exports to the US could drop by 26%; 2026 may see a reversal in US exports while non-US market growth slows [4] Inflation and Exchange Rates - Inflation: Deflationary pressures are easing, with CPI expected to rise from 0% to 0.4% in 2026, and PPI narrowing from -2.7% to below -1% [4] - Exchange Rate: The RMB is expected to be strong in the short term, with overall stability and two-way fluctuations anticipated in 2026 [4] Policy Expectations - Monetary Policy: A potential 20 basis point rate cut in 2026 (to 1.2%), with limited future space due to the need to balance bank interest margins [4] - Fiscal Policy: Broad fiscal impulse around 1 percentage point, focusing on special bonds and policy financial tools [4] - Credit: Social financing growth may decline from 8.4% to 8%, with macro leverage continuing to rise [4]