Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [4][5][58]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the third batch of 690 billion yuan in national subsidies aimed at promoting consumption through old-for-new programs, which is anticipated to sustain robust demand growth [2][20]. - In August, air conditioner production saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with domestic sales decreasing by 5.3% and exports down by 9.5%. This decline is attributed to the seasonal slowdown and increased inventory levels [1][17]. - The second quarter saw a decrease in the proportion of heavy holdings in home appliance stocks, with a notable increase in black electrical appliances, indicating a shift in investment focus [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Boss Electric in kitchen appliances [3][12][15]. 2. Market Trends and Production Insights - August marked the beginning of the air conditioning off-season, leading to a production slowdown. Domestic production decreased by 5% while export production fell by 10% [1][17]. - The third batch of national subsidies is expected to provide a significant boost to domestic demand, with over 2.8 billion people applying for the old-for-new subsidies, resulting in sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [2][20]. 3. Heavy Holdings and Market Performance - The proportion of heavy holdings in home appliance stocks decreased to 3.3% in Q2, with white goods seeing the largest decline. However, the sector remains overweight compared to the overall market [3][22]. - The home appliance sector experienced a relative loss of 1.65% this week compared to the broader market [30]. 4. Key Data Tracking - Raw material prices have shown an upward trend, with LME copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.2% and 2.3% respectively [32]. - The shipping index for exports has decreased, with significant drops in rates for routes to the US West and East coasts [42]. 5. Company Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies include Midea Group at 5.62 yuan for 2025, Gree Electric at 6.34 yuan, and Haier Smart Home at 2.26 yuan [4][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the home appliance industry is expected to outperform the market, with positive expectations for major white goods companies in Q2 2025 due to the effective use of subsidy funds and a seasonal increase in demand [1] - Key recommendations include leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual Technology, along with a focus on TCL Electronics and companies like Bear Electric and Roborock that show potential for operational improvement [1] - The report highlights that the previous phase of subsidy withdrawal saw a resilient growth pattern in the industry, with core product categories maintaining positive revenue growth despite challenges [2] Group 2 - The impact of policy changes on the industry was concentrated in the earlier stages, with a notable adjustment in performance metrics during 2011, followed by a recovery phase where the white goods index outperformed the market [3] - The report draws parallels with the U.S. market, indicating that commercial HVAC systems have shown better performance compared to consumer appliances during economic downturns, suggesting a shift in demand dynamics [4] - Companies like Whirlpool have implemented price increases and enhanced dividend payouts to mitigate the impact of rising costs and maintain stable return on equity (ROE) amidst challenging market conditions [5] Group 3 - The anticipated impact of the old-for-new policy on overall white goods sales is estimated to be around 9% of the 2023 sales volume, indicating a limited effect on the overall market dynamics [6] - The diversification of leading home appliance companies is expected to further dilute the impact of policy changes on financial statements, suggesting a strategic advantage in navigating market fluctuations [6]

Core Insights - The retail sales of home appliances have maintained double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025, indicating strong consumer demand in this sector [1] - In April, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment from above-designated size enterprises increased by 38.8% year-on-year, ranking first among 16 major categories of consumer goods [1] - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with relevant departments, has expanded and improved the "old for new" appliance exchange policy, which has shown continuous positive results [1]

Group 1 - The home appliance trade-in policy has been strengthened and expanded this year, optimizing the subsidy range and policy process, leading to sales of 124.74 billion yuan by April 12 from 12 categories of home appliances [1] - The policy has provided tangible benefits to consumers, expanding the subsidy range and offering more choices for upgrading appliances at favorable prices, thus stimulating consumer demand for quality living [4] - For home appliance companies, the policy presents a significant development opportunity, increasing market demand and encouraging R&D investment to launch new products that meet consumer needs [4] Group 2 - From a macroeconomic perspective, the home appliance trade-in policy plays a crucial role in boosting consumption and driving economic growth, impacting various related industries such as production, logistics, and after-sales services [5] - There are challenges in the implementation of the policy, including insufficient consumer awareness and a lack of standardized recycling processes, which can hinder the effectiveness of the policy [5] - To address these issues, collaboration between the government and enterprises is essential to enhance promotion and improve the recycling system, ensuring effective policy implementation nationwide [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - Hisense Home Appliances reported strong Q1 2025 results, achieving revenue of 24.838 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.127 billion yuan, up 14.89% year-on-year, marking the best performance for the same period since Q1 2002 [2] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached 24.838 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.127 billion yuan and a non-recurring net profit of 1.008 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 14.89% and 20.27% respectively [2] - The company's return on equity (ROE) for 2024 was reported at 23.27%, outperforming competitors such as Haier Smart Home (17.70%), Midea Group (21.29%), and Gree Electric (25.42%) [5] Market Position and Product Performance - Hisense's multi-split air conditioning systems captured over 20% market share, while the company maintained the top position in the fresh air air conditioning category with a sales share of 42.8% [3] - The refrigerator segment saw an increase in market share by 2.6 percentage points, with the Rongsheng brand also experiencing a 2.3 percentage point increase [3] - The washing machine business improved user experience, resulting in a 0.7 percentage point increase in offline market share [3] Growth Drivers - The growth in Q1 performance is attributed to several factors: recovery in central air conditioning sales, strong growth in home air conditioning, high single-digit growth in refrigeration and washing machine segments, and significant orders in the HVAC sector for new energy vehicles [4] - Domestic and international sales trends indicate a positive outlook, with exports expected to grow over 20% year-on-year [4] Financial Stability - The company reported a total debt of 52 billion yuan, with non-interest-bearing liabilities accounting for 92% of total debt, indicating strong bargaining power within the appliance supply chain [6] - The liquidity surplus after settling all payables and interest-bearing debts is 21.8 billion yuan, showcasing financial stability [5]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for Mini LED TVs is rapidly increasing in China, driven by government subsidy policies and a significant rise in shipments, which are expected to impact global pricing and market dynamics [2][6][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Mini LED TVs have a global market share of 3% as of 2024, while traditional LCD TVs dominate at 94% [6]. - The average price of a 55-inch Mini LED TV is $901, positioned between LCD TVs at $501 and OLED TVs at $1,317 [6]. - In the last quarter of 2024, shipments of Mini LED TVs to China reached 2.02 million units, a 2.3-fold increase compared to the previous quarter, accounting for 65% of global shipments [6][9]. Group 2: Government Policies and Consumer Behavior - China's subsidy policy for replacing old appliances has significantly boosted the sales of Mini LED TVs, with subsidies ranging from 15% to 20% of the purchase price [6][9]. - Larger screen sizes, such as 85-inch and 98-inch TVs, receive higher subsidies, leading to increased sales and potential supply shortages for certain components [7]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Prior to 2023, the Mini LED TV market was largely dominated by Samsung, but Chinese companies like TCL and Hisense have rapidly gained market share, reaching 25% and 24% respectively in 2024, surpassing Samsung's 20% [9]. - Sony is increasing its supply of Mini LED TVs in Japan, with plans to boost production significantly, while reducing OLED TV supply [13]. Group 4: Pricing Trends - The price of 98-inch Mini LED TVs has decreased by 49% year-on-year, dropping to $3,374 in the last quarter of 2024, indicating a trend of declining prices in the segment [11][12]. - The shift towards larger TVs is leading to a commoditization of the market, with expectations of continued price reductions [12].