Investment Rating - Industry rating: "Accumulate" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The home appliance industry is expected to see a boost in domestic demand due to the implementation of the 2025 appliance replacement policy [4] - The production data for major home appliances in October 2025 shows a total production of 29.24 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9% [7] - The domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines have all experienced declines compared to the same period last year, with air conditioners down 18%, refrigerators down 5.8%, and washing machines down 1.6% [7] - The international consumer electronics fair (IFA) in Berlin showcased new products from domestic cleaning appliance companies, including multi-floor cleaning robots, indicating a shift towards more advanced technology in the industry [7] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The relative returns over the past month, three months, and twelve months are -4.18%, -7.25%, and -13.16% respectively, while absolute returns are -1.99%, 8.06%, and 15.18% [3] Production and Sales Data - In August 2025, the production of home air conditioners reached 12.881 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, while total sales were 13.023 million units, a slight decline of 1.0% [7] - Domestic sales of air conditioners increased by 1.2%, while exports decreased by 4.2% [7] Market Dynamics - The home appliance market faced pressures from high base effects and the exhaustion of national subsidy funds in certain regions, leading to a temporary adjustment in demand [7] - Major home appliance companies are responding to the subsidy cessation by promoting high-end models, pushing for a shift towards premium products [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on white goods companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as black goods exporters like TCL Electronics and Hisense Visual [7]

Policy Insights - The "trade-in for new" policy for home appliances in China will be strengthened and expanded by 2025, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of the year to support its implementation, stimulating consumer activity, although demand elasticity varies by category and there is regional imbalance in subsidy consumption [1] - The US-China tariff policy shows a trend of "tightening first, then loosening," causing short-term disruptions to China's home appliance exports but also encouraging companies to accelerate global capacity layout and enhance supply chain adjustment capabilities [1] Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, leading brands in the black appliance sector in China have further highlighted their brand and technological advantages, increasing market share, while the trend of industrial structure upgrading continues, with good domestic market performance but pressure on exports [1] - The national subsidy policy has significantly boosted the domestic demand market for white appliances, combined with ecological advantages and extreme weather stimuli, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and quality, although increased competition from export-to-domestic sales is squeezing the survival space of smaller brands [1] - The kitchen and bathroom sector continues to be constrained by ongoing adjustments in the real estate industry, but new policy subsidies focused on this sector have driven both volume and revenue growth for large kitchen and bathroom appliances, while small appliances see a decrease in volume but an increase in revenue [1] - The cleaning appliance industry maintains high growth rates, with leading domestic brands deepening overseas layouts expected to drive export business into a phase of scaling up [1] Financial Overview - In the first half of 2025, the overall credit risk in the home appliance industry is manageable, with rapid growth in total revenue and operational performance, and stable gross profit levels, although profitability varies across sub-sectors, with kitchen and bathroom appliances under continuous pressure, and cleaning appliances seeing revenue growth without profit increase, while black and white appliances show year-on-year profit improvement [2] - The overall operational efficiency of the home appliance industry has slightly declined, capital expenditure has contracted year-on-year, and there is significant room for optimization in debt maturity structure, although financial leverage remains stable [2]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the home appliance industry Core Insights - The home appliance industry in China is experiencing structural growth driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with a total of 162 billion yuan allocated in the first half of 2025 to stimulate consumer spending [5][7][10] - The impact of U.S.-China tariff policies has created short-term disruptions in exports, prompting companies to accelerate global capacity layout and enhance supply chain adaptability [5][12] - The overall credit risk in the home appliance industry remains controllable, with revenue growth and stable gross profit levels, although profitability varies across sub-sectors [5][35] Summary by Sections Key Points - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated consumer demand, with over 66 million consumers purchasing more than 109 million appliances, resulting in sales exceeding 1.4 trillion yuan [8][10] - The black appliance sector shows strong performance from leading brands, while the white appliance sector benefits significantly from national subsidies [5][6] - The kitchen and bathroom appliance market is constrained by ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, but new subsidies are driving growth in this area [5][25] Major Focus Factors - The home appliance industry is a significant category of durable consumer goods, with a large scale and high degree of globalization [6] - The report analyzes the domestic and international policy environment, market performance of key segments (black appliances, white appliances, kitchen appliances, and cleaning appliances), and financial performance of 47 representative listed companies [6] Financial Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the home appliance industry saw a 9.74% increase in revenue to 770.69 billion yuan, with varying growth rates across sub-sectors [35] - The average operating profit margin decreased by 0.81 percentage points to 25.88%, with significant declines in kitchen appliance profitability [35][36] - The overall capital expenditure decreased by 13.58%, indicating a cautious investment approach in a mature industry [38] Conclusion - The home appliance industry is expected to maintain growth momentum in the domestic market, driven by policy support and product upgrades, despite challenges from international trade tensions and competitive pressures [5][10][20]

针对上半年家电企业的经营情况，华泰证券分析师樊俊豪表示，受中国官方推出的消费品以旧换新政策 影响，今年上半年中国家电内销需求保持韧性，利好相关上市公司业绩。 中国国家统计局披露的数据显示，上半年，中国社会消费品零售总额约24.55万亿元，同比增长5%，增 速比去年全年加快1.5个百分点。其中，上半年，限额以上单位家用电器和音像器材类商品零售额同比 增长30.7%。 具体到公司层面，国金证券分析师王刚表示，行业头部公司充分受益于政策红利，凭借规模及供应链优 势表现稳健，业绩兑现良好。 中国A股家用电器上市公司上半年"成绩单"出炉。财报显示，今年上半年，家电上市公司营业收入和净 利润同比均实现增长，业绩稳健。 根据华泰证券3日发布的研报，2025年上半年，A股家电板块上市公司合计实现营业总收入约8700.36亿 元(人民币，下同)，同比增长8.4%，实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约703.16亿元，同比增长约 13.1%。 今年上半年，中国家电行业头部公司大多交出了亮眼"成绩单"。其中，行业"市值一哥"——美的集团上 半年实现营业收入约2511.24亿元，同比增长15.58%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润约26 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong financial performance for the first half of 2025, with significant year-on-year growth in both revenue and net profit, driven by new product categories and expansion into overseas markets [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.53 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 200 million yuan, up 27.3% year-on-year [1]. - For Q2 2025, the company recorded revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 29.6%, and a net profit of 80 million yuan, reflecting a substantial increase of 641.5% year-on-year [1]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 6.2%, an increase of 5.1 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to reduced price competition in the kitchen small appliance sector and improved product mix [2]. Market Dynamics - The demand for kitchen small appliances was boosted by domestic appliance replacement policies, with online sales increasing by 15% year-on-year and average prices rising by 9% [1]. - Key product categories such as juicers, health pots, and chef machines saw rapid sales growth in Q2 [1]. - The company’s overseas business faced challenges due to U.S. tariffs, but the consolidation of Roman Smart in July 2024 is expected to contribute additional revenue [1]. Cash Flow and Cost Management - The company reported a significant increase in operating cash flow for Q2, with a net cash flow increase of 140 million yuan year-on-year, driven by rapid sales growth [2]. - Cost management strategies led to reductions in management, R&D, and sales expense ratios by 1.7, 1.3, and 0.9 percentage points respectively [2]. Investment Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the online small appliance market, with a focus on capturing market demand and enhancing brand strength through product refinement [2]. - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.48, 2.70, and 2.91 yuan respectively, with a maintained buy rating and a target price of 66.89 yuan based on a 27 times price-to-earnings ratio for 2025 [2].

Core Insights - The Ministry of Commerce reported that over 66 million consumers have purchased more than 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through the "old-for-new" program this year, highlighting the significant role of home appliance consumption in driving domestic demand in China [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is not just a simple replacement of similar products but encourages the adoption of higher-end, smart, and environmentally friendly products, promoting green and intelligent technology into households [1][2] - The government has increased the categories eligible for subsidies from 8 to 12 this year, further unlocking the consumption potential in the home appliance market [2] Group 1: Policy and Market Impact - The central government allocated 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds last year to support local implementation of the "old-for-new" policy, resulting in significant sales and consumption boosts [1] - In the previous year, the "old-for-new" program led to the sale of over 62 million units of eight major appliance categories, directly driving consumption by nearly 270 billion yuan, with a retail sales growth of 12.3% in home appliances [1] - The recycling and dismantling of old appliances have also seen growth, with a 14.83% increase in the recovery of waste appliances and a 20% increase in the number of properly dismantled appliances [1] Group 2: Challenges and Recommendations - Despite the positive effects, challenges remain, such as the incomplete release of consumption potential and financial pressures on small and medium-sized appliance dealers [2][3] - There is a need for better promotion and understanding of the current subsidies among consumers to convert potential demand into actual purchases [3] - Recommendations include optimizing the "old-for-new" process to reduce costs and improve consumer experience, as well as encouraging local governments to develop tailored solutions based on their specific circumstances [3] Group 3: Waste Management and Sustainability - The "old-for-new" policy also emphasizes the importance of managing the recycling of old appliances, aiming to maximize their value and promote a modern recycling system [4] - Encouragement for appliance manufacturers to establish a comprehensive recycling system that includes recovery, dismantling, and reuse is essential for achieving green and low-carbon development [4] - The establishment of standardized processes for waste appliance handling and the use of digital platforms for tracking the entire lifecycle of appliances are crucial to prevent fraud and ensure efficient recycling [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [4][5][58]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to benefit from the third batch of 690 billion yuan in national subsidies aimed at promoting consumption through old-for-new programs, which is anticipated to sustain robust demand growth [2][20]. - In August, air conditioner production saw a year-on-year decline of 7.1%, with domestic sales decreasing by 5.3% and exports down by 9.5%. This decline is attributed to the seasonal slowdown and increased inventory levels [1][17]. - The second quarter saw a decrease in the proportion of heavy holdings in home appliance stocks, with a notable increase in black electrical appliances, indicating a shift in investment focus [3][22]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Key recommendations include Midea Group, Gree Electric, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances in the white goods sector, and Boss Electric in kitchen appliances [3][12][15]. 2. Market Trends and Production Insights - August marked the beginning of the air conditioning off-season, leading to a production slowdown. Domestic production decreased by 5% while export production fell by 10% [1][17]. - The third batch of national subsidies is expected to provide a significant boost to domestic demand, with over 2.8 billion people applying for the old-for-new subsidies, resulting in sales exceeding 1.6 trillion yuan [2][20]. 3. Heavy Holdings and Market Performance - The proportion of heavy holdings in home appliance stocks decreased to 3.3% in Q2, with white goods seeing the largest decline. However, the sector remains overweight compared to the overall market [3][22]. - The home appliance sector experienced a relative loss of 1.65% this week compared to the broader market [30]. 4. Key Data Tracking - Raw material prices have shown an upward trend, with LME copper and aluminum prices increasing by 1.2% and 2.3% respectively [32]. - The shipping index for exports has decreased, with significant drops in rates for routes to the US West and East coasts [42]. 5. Company Earnings Forecasts - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for key companies include Midea Group at 5.62 yuan for 2025, Gree Electric at 6.34 yuan, and Haier Smart Home at 2.26 yuan [4][55].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the home appliance industry is expected to outperform the market, with positive expectations for major white goods companies in Q2 2025 due to the effective use of subsidy funds and a seasonal increase in demand [1] - Key recommendations include leading white goods companies such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Visual Technology, along with a focus on TCL Electronics and companies like Bear Electric and Roborock that show potential for operational improvement [1] - The report highlights that the previous phase of subsidy withdrawal saw a resilient growth pattern in the industry, with core product categories maintaining positive revenue growth despite challenges [2] Group 2 - The impact of policy changes on the industry was concentrated in the earlier stages, with a notable adjustment in performance metrics during 2011, followed by a recovery phase where the white goods index outperformed the market [3] - The report draws parallels with the U.S. market, indicating that commercial HVAC systems have shown better performance compared to consumer appliances during economic downturns, suggesting a shift in demand dynamics [4] - Companies like Whirlpool have implemented price increases and enhanced dividend payouts to mitigate the impact of rising costs and maintain stable return on equity (ROE) amidst challenging market conditions [5] Group 3 - The anticipated impact of the old-for-new policy on overall white goods sales is estimated to be around 9% of the 2023 sales volume, indicating a limited effect on the overall market dynamics [6] - The diversification of leading home appliance companies is expected to further dilute the impact of policy changes on financial statements, suggesting a strategic advantage in navigating market fluctuations [6]

Core Insights - The retail sales of home appliances have maintained double-digit growth for eight consecutive months from September 2024 to April 2025, indicating strong consumer demand in this sector [1] - In April, the retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment from above-designated size enterprises increased by 38.8% year-on-year, ranking first among 16 major categories of consumer goods [1] - The Ministry of Commerce, in collaboration with relevant departments, has expanded and improved the "old for new" appliance exchange policy, which has shown continuous positive results [1]

Group 1 - The home appliance trade-in policy has been strengthened and expanded this year, optimizing the subsidy range and policy process, leading to sales of 124.74 billion yuan by April 12 from 12 categories of home appliances [1] - The policy has provided tangible benefits to consumers, expanding the subsidy range and offering more choices for upgrading appliances at favorable prices, thus stimulating consumer demand for quality living [4] - For home appliance companies, the policy presents a significant development opportunity, increasing market demand and encouraging R&D investment to launch new products that meet consumer needs [4] Group 2 - From a macroeconomic perspective, the home appliance trade-in policy plays a crucial role in boosting consumption and driving economic growth, impacting various related industries such as production, logistics, and after-sales services [5] - There are challenges in the implementation of the policy, including insufficient consumer awareness and a lack of standardized recycling processes, which can hinder the effectiveness of the policy [5] - To address these issues, collaboration between the government and enterprises is essential to enhance promotion and improve the recycling system, ensuring effective policy implementation nationwide [7][8]