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国金高频图鉴 | 7月外需强于内需&韩国出口高频走弱
雪涛宏观笔记· 2025-08-17 09:56
关于本栏目 高频数据难懂?挖掘信息不易?【国金高频图鉴】每周一期,与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧,看懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库,欢迎联系国金宏观团 队。 7 月经济数据公布 8 月初汽车销量转负 美国关税税率进一步上行 韩国出口高频开始走弱 8 月主要大宗商品现货表现偏弱 7月经济数据呈现外需强于内需、生产强于需求、不变价强于现价的格局。 生产端, 7月 工增、服务业生产指数不变价同比增长5.7%、5.8%,但 价格处于年内低位。 01 7月经济数据公布 #本期Headline# 展望后续,随着今年7月下旬第三批补贴资金下发各地,部分地区"以旧换新"逐步重启,政策对汽车补贴的力度有所加强,但汽车价格战力度减弱,消费者 购车成本上行,观望情绪或维持高位。 需求端, 出口一枝独秀。7月社零同比增长3.7%,前值4.8%,固定资产投资完成额1-7月累计同比下滑1.2个百分点至1.6%,制造业、基建、房地产投资累计 同比均回落。 相比于实体经济走弱,7月社融同比增长9%,M1同比增长5.6%,创年内新高。 我们估算7月GDP不变价增速在5%左右,7月GDP平减指数为-1.4%,对应现价GDP增速在3.6%左右 ...
宏观经济点评:7月经济数据公布,汽车销量转负
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 08:21
Economic Data Summary - July economic data indicates that external demand is stronger than internal demand, production is stronger than consumption, and constant price metrics outperform current price metrics[4] - In July, industrial output and service production indices grew by 5.7% and 5.8% year-on-year, respectively, with GDP growth estimated at around 5% in constant prices[4] - Retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in the previous month, while fixed asset investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.6%[4] Automotive Market Insights - In August, national retail sales of passenger cars reached 452,000 units from August 1-10, a 4% decrease compared to the same period last year[7] - The automotive market has been negatively impacted by reduced "trade-in" policy effectiveness and declining promotional efforts, leading to a 1.5% year-on-year drop in July retail sales[7] Trade and Tariff Developments - In June, the U.S. tariff rate increased to 10%, with tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 48.2% in May to 40.3% in June[11] - The tariff rates for major trading partners like Vietnam, Japan, and Germany also increased, potentially suppressing U.S. import demand[11] Commodity Price Trends - Overall commodity prices showed weakness in early August, with coking coal and coke prices rising by 9.6% and 3.6% respectively compared to late July[16] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to rebound to around -3% year-on-year due to low base effects from the previous year[16] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include U.S.-China trade tensions, tariff increases, and global supply chain adjustments, which may lead to export volatility and declining corporate profits[3] - Ongoing geopolitical changes and international market fluctuations could continue to impact commodity prices and related industries[3]