社库累库且现货贴水，预计盘面上方空间有限 研究员：王艳红 投资咨询号：Z0010675 研究员：袁 棋 投资咨询号：Z0019013 第一部分 核心观点 第二部分 氧化铝-产业基本面 第三部分 电解铝-产业基本面 目 录 核心观点 宏观：美国非农就业人数大超预期，7月降息概率迅速下滑；国内以旧换新政策将继续，反内卷政策抬头；7月9日临近，关注美国对外关税政策。 氧化铝-产业基本面总结： 电解铝-产业基本面总结： 供给：5月，在产产能环比增加210万吨，开工率环比小幅上升；矿石端，国内到港量周度环比增加，数值仍处在正常范围内 进口： 2025年5月中国氧化铝净出口14.25万吨，环比大幅减少，连续14个月净出口；出口盈利小幅收敛 需求：电解铝在产产能小幅增加且维持高位，短期氧化铝需求相对持稳 利润：氧化铝生产完全成本为2821.9元，盈利300.3元/吨，成本微幅下滑，利润小幅减少；烧碱价格最新价3540元/吨，周度环比上涨10元/吨 进口矿到港量周度环比反弹，数据暂在正常范围内；进口矿价较为稳定，韧性较强，下跌概率不大，对氧化铝存成本支撑；国内矿端库存仍在 偏高位置；氧化铝周产环比增加，社库延续累库，现货近两 ...

重卡行业景气度跟踪 20250706 Q&A 今年汽车市场为何出现淡季不淡的现象？ 今年汽车市场出现淡季不淡的现象主要是由于以旧换新政策的推动。到 5 月底， 全国除港澳台外的 31 个省市自治区基本上都已落实该政策，因此 6 月份成为 政策全面落地后的执行期和发力期，导致销量同比、环比双增长。四五月份部 分地区如山东、河北、山西等直到 5 月下旬才出台地方版以旧换新政策，因此 未能完全体现政策效应。 6 月份汽车销量具体表现如何？ 6 月份终端销量达到 65,000 辆，实现同比和环比增长，批发销量也因此被带 动起来。批发销量为 94,000 辆，其中出口销量约 26,000 辆，同比增长约 10%。虽然非俄地区销量大幅下降，但东南亚、非洲、中东等地区快速增长， 填补了俄罗斯市场的减量，实现小幅增长。国内批发销量为 68,000 辆，零售 预计 2025 年全年国内重卡销量约 75 万台，出口 30 万台，总量达 105 万台，同比增长约 15 万台，主要由政策推动和国内需求回暖驱动，电 动重卡和天然气重卡将分别增长翻倍和 10%左右。 长城汽车推出混动重卡，通过 DHT 系统降低油耗 15%-20%，瞄准 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 特斯拉Robotaxi上线，美国电动车税收抵免提前终止或导致特斯拉需求承压： 当地时间6/22特斯拉在美国奥斯汀正式推出Robotaxi服务、6/28 Model Y首次实现全自动驾驶交付；7/3美国众 议院通过"大而美法案"，规定从2025/9/30起全面取消购买新电动汽车的7,500美元税收抵免（vs. 原计划2032年 底取消）。我们判断，1）国内外Robotaxi商业化规模上量或迎拐点突破；2）美国电动车税收抵免提前终止或 导致特斯拉在美需求承压；3）国内新势力购车优惠放大或加剧消费者观望情绪，关注2H25E以旧换新政策进 展。 2Q25特斯拉全球交付量环比修复： 2Q25特斯拉全球交付量同比-13.5%/环比+14.1%至38.4万辆（Model 3+Y同比-11.5%/环比+15.4%至37.4万 辆）。 6月理想交付同环比下滑，小鹏/蔚来环比企稳： 1）理想交付量同比-24.1%/环比-11.2%至36,279辆；2）小鹏交付量同比+224.4%/环比+3.2%至34,611辆；3）蔚 来交付量同比+17.5%/环比+7.3%至24,925辆（乐道L60 ...

618 家电零售增长稳健，美越关税落地有望带动出口链情绪回温 2025 年 618 家电市场整体表现稳健，主要品类均实现增长，内部结构持续优化。整体市场延续回暖趋势，白电品类 零售量和零售额双双提升，均价保持稳定；黑电品类表现亮眼，618 期间中国彩电市场销量同比增长 9.7%，销额同比 增长 14.5%，线上线下均实现量价双增。具体来看，空调品类增长势头强劲，线上线下零售额同比增幅均超过 15%， 头部品牌如美的、小米、海尔表现突出，品牌集中度提升，产品上"新一级能效"占据绝对主流（线上线下占比均超 95%），"舒适风"功能线上渗透率升至 27.66%。洗衣机市场线上线下零售额分别同比增长 17.1%和 12.1%，行业竞争 焦点转向大容量、分区洗等功能升级。冰箱品类增长稳健，全渠道零售额同比增长 3.3%，消费以刚需替换为主。彩电 则实现了销量与销额的双位数增长，产品结构升级显著，大尺寸、高刷新率、Mini LED 及艺术电视渗透率持续提升， 行业竞争正从价格导向转向用户体验和价值导向。 美越达成初步贸易协议，关税政策落地低于预期，有望显著提振中国家电出口链市场情绪。根据协议，美国将对大部 分越南出口商品 ...

期货研究报告 金融研究 [Table_ReportType] 半年报 走势评级： 戴朝盛—宏观分析师 ###—###研究员 从业资格证号：F03118012 从业资格证号： 投资咨询证号：Z0019368 投资咨询证号： 联系电话：0571-28132632 联系电话： 邮箱：daichaosheng@cindasc.com 邮箱： 前高后低，伺机而动 [Table_ReportDate] 报告日期： 2025 年 7 月 4 日 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 国内经济整体前高后低。为应对出口带来的冲击，政策储备作用对象明确。 3000 亿（VS 2024 年 1500 亿）以旧换新补贴剑指消费，8000 亿（VS 2024 年 7000 亿）两重项目投资支撑基建，2000 亿（VS 2024 年 1500 亿）设备 更新补贴用于制造业投资。在政策前置发力下，一季度 GDP 增速高达 5.4%， 预计二季度仍将在 5%以上。 外部三大扰动：关税、OBBB 法案、美联储降息时点 大类资产走势展望 | 股 | 区间震荡 | | --- | --- | | 债 | 利率有望破新低 | | 人民币汇 ...

Group 1 - The total sales of old-for-new related products have exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan this year, with the third batch of funds for the program to be distributed in July [1] - The third round of funds will follow principles of "timeliness" and "balance," aiming to achieve dynamic equilibrium in the consumer market through macro policy adjustments [1] - The implementation of the "two new" policies has significantly enhanced consumer vitality, with a notable increase in sales of energy-efficient home appliances [2][3] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the old-for-new policy has led to over 1.1 million orders and sales exceeding 26 billion yuan in home appliances, mobile phones, and home decoration categories [3] - The sales of 3C digital products have surged, particularly among students, with some stores reporting a year-on-year increase of over 30% in sales [4] - In Shandong Province, the sales of home appliances under the old-for-new policy have reached over 131 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 27% [4] Group 3 - The industrial equipment upgrade investment has shown a positive growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 10.7% from January to May [5][6] - The government has allocated 200 billion yuan in special bonds to support equipment upgrades, with the first batch of approximately 173 billion yuan already distributed to various projects [6] - The third round of funding is expected to not only stimulate terminal consumption but also create a positive cycle of "consumption growth - industrial upgrading - economic development" [6]

Core Viewpoint - Xiaomi's new model, the YU7, has achieved impressive pre-order numbers, raising questions about the validity of these orders and the competitive landscape in the electric vehicle market [1][2][3] Sales Performance - Xiaomi's annual sales target for its automotive division has been raised from 30,000 to 35,000 units, with the YU7 contributing significantly to this goal [2][3] - In the first half of the year, Xiaomi's SU7 series alone achieved a sales volume of 150,000 units, reaching a completion rate of 50% of its annual target [2][3] - The YU7 locked in 204,000 orders within 18 hours, even after excluding 36,000 orders from the SU7 series, indicating strong market demand [1][2] Competitive Landscape - Xiaomi's CEO Lei Jun emphasized that the YU7 is targeting Tesla's Model Y rather than competing with domestic brands, highlighting the competitive nature of the SUV market [5][8] - The YU7 is positioned as a luxury high-performance SUV with a starting price just below that of the Model Y, indicating a strategic pricing approach [5][8] Customer Demographics - The average age of YU7 buyers is around 33 years, with a notable 30% of buyers being female, which contrasts with the male-dominated customer base of competitors [7] - A significant portion of YU7 customers are existing Xiaomi smartphone users, indicating a strong brand loyalty and cross-selling potential [7] Market Strategy - Xiaomi is leveraging the upcoming vehicle trade-in policy in China, which is expected to boost demand for new vehicles, including the YU7 [8] - The company is focusing on innovative features in the YU7 to attract customers, such as zero-gravity seats and enhanced safety features [8] Challenges and Responses - There are concerns about the long delivery times for the YU7, with estimates of 40-50 weeks for initial orders, which may lead to customer attrition to competitors [9][11] - Lei Jun acknowledged the competitive tactics employed by rival companies to intercept YU7 customers, urging competitors to focus on their strengths instead of disparaging Xiaomi [9][11]

Group 1: Economic Growth Indicators - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, maintaining rapid growth [1] - The service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods (referred to as "social retail total") increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with a growth acceleration of 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] Group 2: Consumer Spending Insights - The social retail total's year-on-year growth rate in May reached the highest level since early 2024, with a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.93%, marking the highest level for the same period in the past five years [1] - Cumulative growth for service retail from January to May was 5.2%, which is an acceleration of 0.1 percentage points compared to January to April [1] - Factors supporting the acceleration in consumption growth include the old-for-new policy, "6·18" online shopping promotions, and the continuous release of new consumption drivers [1] Group 3: Fixed Asset Investment and Industrial Development - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, but there are expectations for a rebound in infrastructure investment as funding becomes available [2] - The high-end, intelligent, and green development of industries is progressing steadily, with significant growth in key sectors such as automotive manufacturing and electronic equipment [2] - In May, the added value of the automotive manufacturing industry and computer communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 11.6% and 10.2% year-on-year, respectively [2] Group 4: Employment and Price Trends - The national urban survey unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with youth unemployment rate declining for three consecutive months [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight year-on-year decline, with the decline rate remaining consistent with the previous month [3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, saw an increase compared to the previous month [3]

6月份，重卡销量同比环比全面上涨，以9.4万辆、同比大增32%收官，可谓是大超预期。在 这个上半年的最后一个月份里，各家主流企业取得的成绩如何？跑赢"大盘"的企业多吗？ 请看第一商用车网带来的分析报道。 6月重卡"狂飙"9.4万辆，批发、终端全面上涨 根据第一商用车网最新掌握的数据，2025年6月份，我国重卡市场共计销售约9.4万辆（批发 口径，包含出口和新能源），环比今年5月上涨6%，比上年同期的7.14万辆上涨约32%。这 是重卡市场自今年4月份以来的同比三连涨，且涨幅逐月扩大——4月份销量同比增长6.5%， 5月份同比增长13.6%，6月份销量扩大至32%。而且，这也是重卡市场连续两个月实现环比 上升！ 9.4万辆放在最近几年来看，高于2022年6月（5.5万辆）、2023年6月（8.6万辆）和2024 年6月销量（7.1万辆），可以说是大超预期。累计来看，今年1-6月，我国重卡市场累计销量 约为53.53万辆，同比增长约6%。 作为"传统淡季"的6月份，重卡销量同比环比全面上涨、实现市场"大逆转"的首要原因，无疑 是环保政策。截止到5月底，几乎所有省市自治区的货车以旧换新细则都已完成落地，对重卡 新车 ...

Core Insights - The automotive market in China has shown significant changes in the first half of 2025, with various brands reporting their sales performance, indicating a competitive landscape shift [1][2]. Sales Performance - Five brands have doubled their sales, while five companies met their sales targets. Overall, the sales performance of 28 major automotive brands was positive, with only five companies reporting a year-on-year decline [2][5]. - Notable performers include BYD with 382,600 units sold in June, a 212% increase year-on-year, and a total of 2,146,000 units in the first half, reflecting a 33.04% growth [3][7]. - Geely's sales reached 236,000 units in June, a 42% increase year-on-year, with a total of over 1,409,200 units in the first half, marking a 47% growth [5]. Brand Highlights - New energy vehicle brands like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaopeng Motors have shown strong growth, with Hongmeng Zhixing reclaiming the monthly sales crown among new forces with 52,700 units delivered in June [6][7]. - Li Auto and NIO have faced challenges, with Li Auto achieving only about 30% of its annual sales target, while NIO's performance has been average despite maintaining a growth trend [8][9]. Market Trends - The market for economic models is leading, while high-end vehicle growth is slowing down. The sales of high-end new energy vehicles have not kept pace with the overall market growth due to fewer significant new releases [10][11]. - Analysts predict that the overall automotive market will see a growth of 4.7% in 2025, with new energy vehicle sales expected to reach 16.7 million units, a 30% increase year-on-year [11]. Future Outlook - The second half of 2025 is expected to benefit from policies promoting vehicle trade-ins and the anticipated end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption, leading to higher sales expectations [11]. - Analysts remain optimistic about the high-end new energy vehicle market, citing unmet demand and a lack of quality supply in certain price segments [11].