2月6日，"'十四五'广东成就"系列主题新闻发布会第31场在广州举行。 广东省发展和改革委员会、省科技厅、省工业和信息化厅、省住房城乡建设厅、省农业农村厅、省商务 厅相关负责人出席发布会，介绍情况并答记者问，聚焦"现代化产业体系建设"，全面展示了广东在过去 五年中构建具有国际竞争力的现代化产业体系的丰硕成果。 广东省发展和改革委员会副主任、省大湾区办常务副主任朱伟在总体情况介绍中指出："'十四五'时 期，广东坚持实体经济为本、制造业当家，不断推动产业智能化、绿色化、融合化发展，着力增强产业 体系完整性、先进性、安全性。" 2025年，广东地区生产总值达14.58万亿元，三次产业结构优化为 4.0：37.7：58.3，加快形成基础雄厚、门类齐全、体系完整的现代化产业体系。 制造业当家"五大行动"筑牢根基 战略性新兴产业攀高向新 广东省工业和信息化厅副厅长吴红表示："'十四五'时期广东省制造业格局更优、家底更厚、企业更 强！"对此，她详细介绍了五大成效： 一是"大产业"攀高向新。全省规上工业企业营业收入规模保持全国第一，年均增加约1万亿元。战略性 新兴产业集群营业收入完成"年均增速10%"的目标，累计培育8个国家 ...

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2026 年 2 月 6 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ |  股指 - 3 | - | | | --- | --- | --- | | 一、市场回顾 - 3 | - | | | 二、成交持仓分析 - 5 | - | | | 三、基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - 5 | - | | | 四、行业板块概况 - 8 | - | | | 五、估值比较 - 9 | - | | |  国债 - 10 | - | | | 一、本周市场回顾 - 10 | - | | | 二、市场分析 - 19 | - | | | 三、下周公开市场到期 ...

广货行天下！广 东以旧换新各项 核心指标走在全 国前列_南方+_ 南方plus 2026年2月6日上 午，广东省人民 政府新闻办公室 在广州市广东大 厦举行"'十四 五'广东成就"系 列主题新闻发布 会，介绍"十四 五"时期广东省 现代化产业体系 建设的进展与成 效。会上，广东 省商务厅副厅长 何军就以旧换新 政策落实情况、 举措及成效，回 应了媒体提问。 何军表示，以旧 换新政策是广东 链接"制造-流通- 消费"全链条的 关键抓手，更是 推动消费升级与 产业升级协同共 进的重要载体。 2025年，广东立 足自身雄厚的产 业基础与庞大的 消费市场优势， 通过以旧换新政 策精准发力，既 有效激活了消费 潜力，更为产业 高质量升级注入 了强劲动能，成 效显著。 以旧换新有力促 进商品生产。 2025年消费品以 旧换新圆满收 官，广东各项核 心指标均走在全 国前列：全省实 现销售额2642亿 元，占全国 10%；惠及人次 6100万人次，占 全国16.9%。家 电销售2700万 件，占全国 21.2%，家装厨 卫产品销售1900 万件，占全国 16.1%，手机数 码产品销售1268 万部，占全国 13.9%。消费品 ...

人民日报记者 毕京津 17.4% 2025年，在以旧换新政策带动下，冰箱等日用家电零售业、燃气灶等厨具卫具零售业、手机等通信 设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长17.4%、12.9%和18.6%，消费需求加速释放。 "抬手滑动换尺寸，屏幕'嵌'进客厅电视墙，插座位置也能对得上。"前不久，河南郑州繁桦商业中 心天猫优品电器超级旗舰店内，市民陈明头戴虚拟现实设备，指尖轻划，一台75英寸智能电视的3D模 型出现在模拟家居场景中。 "之前在网上看中了这款电视，来门店实地看了看，效果很好。线上领券线下抵扣，原价6999元， 有国补和企业补，再加上天猫的额外优惠，便宜了2300多元。"陈明说。 "消费品以旧换新政策给力，最近有许多顾客来选购。"门店负责人万聪介绍，根据河南省商务厅等 3部门联合发布的公告，冰箱、空调等6类家电和手机、平板等4类数码智能产品纳入补贴范围，1级能效 家电补贴比例达15%，单件最高补1500元；数码智能产品按15%补贴，单件最高补500元。 门店也纷纷推出优质产品、提升服务品质。记者来到虚拟现实购物区，戴上设备，空间计算技术便 扫描生成以现实比例还原的家居空间。选空调时，可以各角度查看压缩机细节、听 ...

17.4% 2025年，在以旧换新政策带动下，冰箱等日用家电零售业、燃气灶等厨具卫具零售业、手机等通信设备 零售业销售收入同比分别增长17.4%、12.9%和18.6%，消费需求加速释放。 "抬手滑动换尺寸，屏幕'嵌'进客厅电视墙，插座位置也能对得上。"前不久，河南郑州繁桦商业中心天 猫优品电器超级旗舰店内，市民陈明头戴虚拟现实设备，指尖轻划，一台75英寸智能电视的3D模型出 现在模拟家居场景中。 "之前在网上看中了这款电视，来门店实地看了看，效果很好。线上领券线下抵扣，原价6999元，有国 补和企业补，再加上天猫的额外优惠，便宜了2300多元。"陈明说。 "消费品以旧换新政策给力，最近有许多顾客来选购。"门店负责人万聪介绍，根据河南省商务厅等3部 门联合发布的公告，冰箱、空调等6类家电和手机、平板等4类数码智能产品纳入补贴范围，1级能效家 电补贴比例达15%，单件最高补1500元；数码智能产品按15%补贴，单件最高补500元。 本报记者 毕京津 "不同消费群体的需求不同，销售时各有侧重。"王海涛介绍，年轻消费者更关注带全屋互联等功能的产 品，年纪稍大的消费者更青睐操作简单、能一键启动的家电型号。 生意虽好， ...

本报记者 毕京津 "之前在网上看中了这款电视，来门店实地看了看，效果很好。线上领券线下抵扣，原价6999元，有国 补和企业补，再加上天猫的额外优惠，便宜了2300多元。"陈明说。 门店也纷纷推出优质产品、提升服务品质。记者来到虚拟现实购物区，戴上设备，空间计算技术便扫描 生成以现实比例还原的家居空间。选空调时，可以各角度查看压缩机细节、听噪声模拟；看冰箱时，内 部分层布局清晰可见，还能感受制冷设备运行时的静音效果。 "一些消费者怕买电器'踩坑'，担心买回家不合适。我们想用技术手段解决这些困扰。"万聪介绍，通过 虚拟现实设备，电器的优缺点以及相关政策优惠信息能更好展现给消费者，让大家更放心、省心。门店 还开设补贴咨询台，导购员人手一份补贴指南。"每天都有上百名消费者咨询补贴政策，我们要把关键 信息讲清楚。"万聪说。 17.4% "门店1月17日开业，当月销售额近千万元。消费者通过云闪付小程序实名认证申领补贴券，到店消费付 款实时抵扣。"万聪说，好政策带来好价格，加上好体验、好服务，不少消费者置办了新家电。 在智能家电体验区，从郑州中牟县农村赶来的张建国刚购买完洗衣机，"原价3999元，按1级水效标准补 贴叠加平 ...

原标题：开业半个月，电器卖场销售额近千万元（经济新方位·全年数据微视角） 2025年，在以旧换新政策带动下，冰箱等日用家电零售业、燃气灶等厨具卫具零售业、手机等通信设备 零售业销售收入同比分别增长17.4%、12.9%和18.6%，消费需求加速释放。 "抬手滑动换尺寸，屏幕'嵌'进客厅电视墙，插座位置也能对得上。"前不久，河南郑州繁桦商业中心天 猫优品电器超级旗舰店内，市民陈明头戴虚拟现实设备，指尖轻划，一台75英寸智能电视的3D模型出 现在模拟家居场景中。 "之前在网上看中了这款电视，来门店实地看了看，效果很好。线上领券线下抵扣，原价6999元，有国 补和企业补，再加上天猫的额外优惠，便宜了2300多元。"陈明说。 "消费品以旧换新政策给力，最近有许多顾客来选购。"门店负责人万聪介绍，根据河南省商务厅等3部 门联合发布的公告，冰箱、空调等6类家电和手机、平板等4类数码智能产品纳入补贴范围，1级能效家 电补贴比例达15%，单件最高补1500元；数码智能产品按15%补贴，单件最高补500元。 在智能家电体验区，从郑州中牟县农村赶来的张建国刚购买完洗衣机，"原价3999元，按1级水效标准补 贴叠加平台优惠，最后花 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "old-for-new" policy for consumer goods, implemented from 2024 to 2025, is supported by a total of 450 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds, aiming to stimulate consumer spending and sales growth, although its multiplier effect appears weaker than expected [2][3]. Group 1: Policy Implementation and Financial Support - The State Council issued measures in July 2024, allocating approximately 150 billion yuan for local support of the "old-for-new" policy, with an additional 300 billion yuan planned for 2025, expanding the range of eligible products from 8 to 12 categories [3]. - The estimated sales driven by the "old-for-new" policy for 2024 and 2025 are projected to exceed 2.6 trillion yuan, with significant contributions from various product categories [4]. Group 2: Impact on Retail Sales - Retail sales growth for related product categories showed an initial acceleration followed by a decline, with significant growth in communication equipment and cultural office supplies, while home appliances and automotive sales growth lagged behind [6][7]. - The first year post-implementation saw a 10% increase in sales for related categories, but the second year showed only a 2% increase, indicating a diminishing effect of the policy [6]. Group 3: Consumer Demographics and Coverage - The total number of beneficiaries from the "old-for-new" policy was only 480 million, with participation rates among lower-income groups being particularly low, as the majority of beneficiaries were from higher-income brackets [11]. - The automotive sector accounted for 61.5% of the total consumption generated by the policy, highlighting the high average price of eligible products and the limited impact on lower-income consumers [11]. Group 4: Future Considerations and Adjustments - Proposed adjustments for the 2026 policy include expanding the subsidy range, lowering the average price of eligible products, and shifting focus towards job creation and income stability rather than solely on sales volume [10][12]. - The introduction of new product categories, such as smart glasses, aims to align with technological advancements and broaden consumer engagement [10].

Core Insights - The inventory warning index for Chinese automotive dealers in January 2026 is at 59.4%, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 1.7 percentage points, indicating pressure in the market [1] - A significant portion of dealers, 53.9%, believe that the manufacturers' annual sales targets are too high, suggesting a need for manufacturers to adjust their targets and support inventory management [11] Inventory and Market Conditions - The inventory warning index remains above the 50% threshold, reflecting cautious inventory management by dealers ahead of the Chinese New Year [3] - The inventory sub-index has decreased, indicating that dealers are being conservative with stock levels as they approach the holiday season [3] - The overall market demand and average daily sales have decreased, while the operating conditions index has slightly improved, suggesting a mixed outlook for dealers [3] Regional and Brand Performance - The national index stands at 59.4%, with regional indices showing variation: North at 59.0%, East at 58.4%, West at 54.3%, and South at 66.1% [5] - Luxury and imported brands have seen a month-on-month decline in their indices, while mainstream joint venture and domestic brands have experienced an increase [6] Sales and Pricing Trends - The transaction rate has decreased, with 51.4% of dealers reporting a decline in sales [7] - The average transaction price has also fallen, with 36.1% of dealers indicating a price drop [8] - Inventory levels are reported to be stable, with 49.3% of dealers stating that inventory levels are unchanged [8] Future Market Outlook - Dealers anticipate a decrease in market demand for February, with 82.6% expecting lower demand [10] - The majority of dealers (59.0%) predict that their operating conditions will be average in February, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [10] - Factors such as the reduction in new energy vehicle purchase tax and the late timing of the Spring Festival are contributing to a weaker market momentum in January [10] - Despite potential short-term demand spikes before the holiday, the overall market faces significant downward pressure in February [11]

Core Viewpoint - The heavy truck market in China experienced a strong wholesale performance but weak retail sales in January 2026, with wholesale sales rising by approximately 40% year-on-year to about 101,000 units, while retail sales are expected to decline by 5-10% year-on-year [1][4][17]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January 2026, the heavy truck market sold approximately 101,000 units, marking a 40% increase from 72,200 units in January 2025 [1]. - The wholesale sales growth is attributed to manufacturers' strategies to ensure a strong start to the year, despite a weak terminal sales performance [4][6]. - The export of heavy trucks continued to grow steadily, with a year-on-year increase of over 20% in January 2026 [6]. Group 2: Manufacturer Performance - China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTC) sold about 24,000 heavy trucks in January 2026, achieving a year-on-year growth of approximately 13% and holding a market share of about 23.8% [8]. - FAW Jiefang sold around 23,000 heavy trucks, with a significant year-on-year increase of about 48%, resulting in a market share of approximately 22.8% [8]. - Dongfeng Motor Corporation sold about 16,000 heavy trucks, marking a year-on-year growth of approximately 92% and a market share of about 15.8% [10]. - Shaanxi Automobile Group sold around 15,000 heavy trucks, achieving a year-on-year growth of about 20% and a market share of approximately 14.9% [12]. - Beiqi Foton sold about 13,000 heavy trucks, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 66%, resulting in a market share of about 12.9% [14]. - XCMG, focusing on new energy heavy trucks, sold about 4,000 units, achieving a year-on-year growth of approximately 95% [16]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to maintain rapid wholesale growth in the first quarter of 2026, but retail sales may decline by 10-15% year-on-year [17]. - The traditional peak sales season for heavy trucks is delayed due to the late Lunar New Year holiday, which may impact sales timing [17]. - New policies regarding the replacement of old National III and IV trucks are anticipated to be implemented in the latter part of the first quarter, which could provide substantial benefits and stimulate sales in the second quarter [17].