长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 "小葵花妈妈课堂开课了"这一耳熟能详的广告语，曾经让葵花药业（002737.SZ）成为知名品牌。如今，公司经营 业绩急降，出人意料。 7月11日晚，葵花药业发布了业绩预告。公司预计，2025年上半年，其实现的归母净利润7000万元—8500万元，同 比下降幅度超过80%。公司预计扣非净利润4000万元—5500万元，同比下降幅度在90%左右。 2024年上半年，葵花药业实现的归母净利润达4.86亿元，2023年上半年为6.38亿元。为何2025年上半年只有数千万 元？ 对此，葵花药业解释称，主要是两个方面因素影响。第一，消化渠道库存；第二，公司库存原材料成本处于高 位，导致毛利率阶段性下降。 葵花药业曾经通过重金营销，成功打造了"葵花"与"小葵花"双品牌矩阵。2023年，公司营业收入、归母净利润双 创新高，当年销售费用达13.67亿元。但是，2024年，其销售费用急剧压缩至4.31亿元，一年压缩超9亿元。 长江商报记者发现，2022年至2024年，葵花药业的销售毛利率连续三年下降。 半年净利一降再降 葵花药业的盈利能力继续下降。 根据最新发布的业绩预告，2025年上半年， ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Feihe has led to a significant decline in its market value, with a projected revenue drop and net profit decrease for the first half of 2025 compared to the previous year [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Feihe expects revenue for the first half of 2025 to be approximately 9.1 billion to 9.3 billion yuan, down from 10.1 billion yuan in the same period of 2024, representing a decline of about 8% to 10% [1]. - The projected net profit for the first half of 2025 is estimated to be between 1 billion to 1.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of approximately 37% to 47% [1]. - Following the announcement, Feihe's stock price plummeted by 17.02% on the next trading day and an additional 3.17% the following day, resulting in a total market value loss of 10.15 billion HKD, equivalent to approximately 9.28 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The decline in birth rates poses a long-term challenge for the infant formula industry, with Feihe's revenue and profit having previously increased in 2024, but now facing a downturn again in 2025 [1][16]. - Feihe has initiated a substantial fertility subsidy program valued at 1.2 billion yuan to attract potential customers, but this strategy may lead to a price war and does not guarantee revenue growth [2][3]. - Competitors such as Yili and Junlebao have also launched similar subsidy programs, which may dilute the effectiveness of Feihe's efforts to capture market share [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Growth Challenges - Feihe's inventory levels have increased significantly, with stock surpassing 2 billion yuan, and inventory turnover days rising from 80 days in 2021 to 113.7 days in 2024 [6][10]. - The management anticipates completing inventory adjustments by the third quarter of 2025, but the impact of the subsidy program on revenue may be more pronounced in the second half of the year [9][10]. - Analysts from various financial institutions have revised their growth expectations for Feihe, with projections indicating a potential revenue growth of only 0.5% for 2025, down from earlier estimates of 9% [5]. Group 4: Product Strategy and Market Trends - Feihe plans to launch higher-end products in the second half of 2025, aligning with market trends that show growth in the ultra-premium segment of the infant formula market [12][11]. - Data indicates that the ultra-high-end market has seen a year-on-year growth of 13.3% in early 2025, while other segments have experienced declines [12]. - Despite these efforts, the performance of new products remains uncertain, and the overall demand for infant formula is declining due to lower birth rates [13][16]. Group 5: Shareholder Returns - Feihe has announced a minimum share buyback plan of 1 billion yuan and a dividend distribution of no less than 2 billion yuan, aiming to enhance shareholder value [14]. - However, despite these positive initiatives, the negative impact of the company's financial performance has overshadowed these efforts, leading to a significant drop in market capitalization [15].

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcements from various liquor companies, including Sichuan Water Well, indicate a strategic shift towards controlling inventory and stabilizing pricing in response to market fluctuations and channel disruptions [1][3][11] Group 1: Company Actions - Sichuan Water Well announced a halt on the sale of its "Zhen Niang No. 8" 500ml product across all channels and implemented measures to stabilize the value chain and manage promotions during the 618 sales period [1] - The company emphasized the importance of maintaining a stable pricing system to boost market confidence and support the steady development of its core products [1] - Other liquor companies, such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye, have also issued stop-sale notices and are focusing on inventory reduction and ensuring distributor profitability [3][5] Group 2: Industry Trends - The liquor industry is experiencing a trend of inventory control and price stabilization as companies respond to market adjustments and unstable terminal prices [5][6] - Industry leaders are advocating for measures to ensure distributor profitability, which is seen as essential for maintaining active sales efforts and preventing price erosion [6][11] - Recent data indicates significant profit declines for liquor distributors, highlighting the need for companies to support their partners to avoid excess inventory and price drops [5][6] Group 3: E-commerce and Market Regulation - Sichuan Water Well has taken strict actions against violations of company policies during the 618 promotion, including penalties and termination of partnerships [1][7] - Other companies, such as Wuliangye and Jian Nan Chun, have also raised concerns about counterfeit products being sold through e-commerce platforms, urging consumers to purchase through official channels [8][10] - The industry is increasingly focused on transparency and traceability to combat counterfeit products and ensure consumer trust [11]

股票代码：000423 股票简称：东阿阿胶 五、关于管理层的稳定性与战略执行 未来一定时期内，管理团队将保持总体稳定，上下同欲，坚定执行 "1238"战略，推动公司经营稳健发展。 东阿阿胶股份有限公司 2024 年年度股东大会记录表 编号：2025-04 | | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 关系活动类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | √现场参观□其他 | | 参与单位名称 | 参加公司 2024 年年度股东大会的股东及委托代理人 | | 及人员姓名 | | | 时间 | 2025 年 5 月 20 日 | | 地点 | 山东省东阿县阿胶街 78 号 公司会议室 | | | 董事长程杰 | | 上市公司 | 独立董事 文光伟 | | 接待人员姓名 | 董事、副总裁、董事会秘书、财务总监丁红岩 | | | 证券事务代表、董事会办公室总经理 付延 一、关于股份回购的规划 | | | 作为市值管理工具之一，股份回购在提振资本市场信心、稳定股价 等方面具有一定作用。基于当前经营实际，公司将保持对股份回购等事 | | | 项的 ...

截至4月30日，21家白酒上市企业的2024年年报悉数发布，各酒企的营收、净利、经营目标等数据成为 行业关注的焦点。业绩表现背后，财报中还藏着更大的秘密。南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者 梳理发现，2024年多家白酒上市公司的经销商数量在减少，其中有酒企去年一年时间经销商数量骤减超 3000家。 而反映经销商打款意愿的合同负债一项，去年也有多家酒企合同负债下滑；随着高库存和价格倒挂等现 象持续，白酒经销商普遍承压。面对越来越多人的"逃离"，酒企要怎么做才能留住经销商？ 7家酒企去年经销商数量共减少超4000家 上海贵酒减少3627家 从整体来看，2024年20家白酒上市公司的经销商总数量出现微增，其中有13家酒企的经销商数量增加， 但经销商数量减少的酒企有7家，减少的总量超过4000家，这在以往属于较为罕见的情况。 课题组记者了解到，上海贵酒2024年末的经销商数量仅剩772家，相比2023年，经销商数量锐减3627 家，成为20家上市公司中经销商数量减少最多的企业。 对此，上海贵酒在财报中表示，2024年，受多方面因素影响，公司资金承压，市场投放减少。叠加公司 实际控制人被公安机关采取强制措施和控股股东 ...

1Q25 销售端仍较为疲软，去化库存释放渠道压力。由于公司面临渠道库存去化压力及竞品挤压，1Q25 收入延续下滑态势，我们预计天之蓝与水晶梦下滑幅度更大。1Q25 毛利率同比-0.44ppt 至75.6%；销售 费用率同比+3.86ppt 至12.4%，主因公司收入下滑的同时市场费用投入较为刚性；管理费用率同比 +1.1ppt 至4%；净利率同比-4.4ppt 至32.9%，盈利能力延续承压。1Q25 销售收现98 亿元/同比-24%；合 同负债70.2 亿元/同比+21%，主因公司主导去化渠道库存，减轻经销商压力，未激进发货。 发展趋势 2024 年公司市场步入调整期，收入及盈利能力承压。2024 年中高档酒营收243.17 亿元/同比-14.8%，普 通酒营收39.31 亿元/同比-0.5%，蓝色经典系列过去几年积累渠道库存偏高，在行业竞争加剧、消费力 转弱的环境下，经销商回款及接货意愿下降，导致公司收入下滑。2024 年省内营收127.48亿元/同 比-11.4%，省外营收155 亿元/同比-14.35%。产品结构下降致2024年毛利率同比-2.1ppt 至73.2%，销售 费用率同比+2.8ppt 至 ...

专题：苹果季报前瞻：iPhone销量或连续两季度下滑 AI推迟将成焦点 正如我在前面简报中提到的，对于6月季度，假设当前的全球关税政策保持不变，我们预计这将对本季 度带来约9亿美元的成本损失。当然，我在这里也不想预测未来的生产结构，只能和大家分享一下6月季 度美国市场产品的原产国，以便大家建立预测模型。 摩根士丹利分析师Erik Woodring：我还有一个跟进问题。我看到本季度有很多报道称，为了减轻关税 影响，苹果加大了销售力度，增加了渠道库存。能否请您为我们详细拆解一下，苹果在3月季度的销量 与销售率是否一致？假设6月季度的销量与销售率保持一致，您是否观察到某些消费者行为，比如赶在 产品价格上涨前加大购买力度等等？还是说，在您看来，这些消费者行为都是正常现象？ 苹果发布2025财年第二财季业绩：营收为953.59亿美元，同比增长5%；净利润为247.80亿美元，同比增 长5%。大中华区营收为160.02亿美元，同比下降2%（注：苹果财年与自然年不同步，2024年10月至 2025年9月为2025财年）。 详见： 苹果第二财季营收953.59亿美元 净利润同比增长5% 苹果第二财季每股摊薄收益和营收均超出华 ...

洋河股份（002304.SZ）2024 年年报&2025 年一季报点评 阶段性降速调整，静待企稳改善 2025 年 04 月 30 日 ➢ 事件：公司于 2025 年 4 月 28 日发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 全年实现营收 288.76 亿元，同比-12.83%；实现归母净利润 66.73 亿元，同比 -33.37%；其中 24Q4 实现营收 13.60 亿元，同比-52.17%；实现归母净利润- 19.05 亿元，同比亏损扩大。25Q1 实现营收 1110.66 亿元，同比-31.92%；实 现归母净利润 36.37 亿元，同比-39.93%。 ➢ 量缩价升，停货去库调整节奏。产品方面，量价拆分来看，24 年公司白酒销 售量 13.91 万吨，同比-16.30%，吨酒价同比+3.87%；其中，中高档酒实现营 收 243.17 亿元，同比-14.79%；普通酒实现营收 39.31 亿元，同比-0.49%。分 地区看，24 年公司省内、省外收入分别实现 127.48、155.00 亿元，同比-11.43%、 -14.35%。分渠道看，批发经销实现收入 278.54 亿元，同比-13.1 ...

Core Insights - The global smartphone market experienced only a 0.2% growth in Q1 2025, with shipments reaching 296.9 million units, marking a decline in growth for three consecutive quarters due to the end of a replacement cycle and manufacturers seeking healthier inventory levels [1][3]. Market Performance - Samsung maintained its leading position with shipments of 60.5 million units, followed by Apple with 55 million units, capturing 19% market share. Xiaomi ranked third with 41.8 million units and a 14% market share [1][3]. - Vivo and OPPO ranked fourth and fifth, with shipments of 22.9 million and 22.7 million units, respectively [1]. Regional Insights - The smartphone market in regions like India, Latin America, and the Middle East has shown significant declines, indicating saturation in the demand for mass-market products. Conversely, the Chinese market is experiencing growth driven by government subsidy policies, while the African market benefits from active retail channels and market expansion efforts by manufacturers [3][5]. - The U.S. smartphone market saw a 12% year-on-year growth in Q1, primarily driven by Apple, which has been proactive in inventory management ahead of changing tariff policies [5]. Future Outlook - Despite the lackluster performance in Q1, major smartphone brands have not adjusted their annual targets, hoping for a market recovery in Q2 and the second half of the year. Some regions, such as Southeast Asia and Latin America, have shown signs of gradual recovery [7]. - Manufacturers face challenges, including cautious hardware upgrades in the mass-market segment due to rising costs, increased competition in the mid-range segment (US$200-400), and potential pressures from global trade tensions leading to localized production [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance was below expectations, with revenue of 642 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 75 million yuan, down 57.53% year-on-year [7] - The decline in revenue across various product categories is attributed to pre-holiday inventory buildup and proactive inventory clearance by the company [7] - Online sales showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 54%, while offline sales decreased by 39.5% [7] - The company has expanded its distributor network, adding 98 new distributors by the end of Q1 2025 [7] - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, indicating pressure on profitability due to fixed costs amidst declining revenue [7] - The company anticipates a gradual improvement in performance moving forward, supported by healthy channel inventory levels [7] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.66 billion yuan, 4.02 billion yuan, and 4.44 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 5%, 10%, and 11% [7] - Net profit forecasts for the same period have been revised to 626 million yuan, 706 million yuan, and 798 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.3%, 12.72%, and 12.94% [7] - The company's P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 20x, 18x, and 16x, respectively [7]