Group 1: Market Reactions - The announcement of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Iran led to a significant drop in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling nearly 9% and over 7% respectively [1] - In the Asia-Pacific market, WTI crude futures initially dropped over 5%, and as of the report, both WTI and ICE Brent crude were down over 2% [1] - Gold prices also saw a decline of 0.3% amid the easing geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Hong Kong oil and gas stocks experienced sharp declines, with Baikin Oil Services plunging nearly 30%, Shandong Molong down over 18%, and Sinopec Oilfield Services falling over 14% [2][3] - In the A-share market, oil and gas service stocks also faced significant losses, with companies like Beiken Energy and Zhun Oil shares hitting the daily limit down [4] Group 3: Geopolitical Context - Trump's unilateral announcement of a ceasefire was met with skepticism, as both Israel and Iran did not confirm the agreement, with Iran's foreign minister stating no ceasefire "agreement" had been reached [6][8] - The ongoing conflict continued despite the announcement, with reports of missile attacks from Iran towards Israel [6] - The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, was highlighted, with previous threats from Iran to close it, which could have led to oil prices soaring to $120-$130 per barrel [11]

Group 1 - The article highlights the rising global risk aversion, indicating a potential increase in demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [1] - There is speculation about whether gold will challenge its previous high points again, suggesting a possible bullish trend in the near future [1] - Real-time analysis of order flow is being conducted to provide insights into market movements and investor sentiment regarding gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has surged above $3,500, with a year-to-date increase of 30% and a monthly rise of nearly 10% [2] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including increased central bank purchases, heightened global risk aversion, and rising inflation expectations [3] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Since April 8, gold prices have rapidly increased from below $3,000 to $3,500 within two weeks, driven by fluctuating U.S. tariff policies [2] - Gold has entered a new bull market since 2016, with prices rising from $1,100 to $3,500 over nine years, showing performance comparable to the U.S. stock market [2] - The Dow Jones index has more than doubled from around 17,000 to 39,000, while the Nasdaq index has increased from 5,000 to 16,000 during the same period, indicating significant market growth [2] Group 2: Influencing Factors - The current bull market in gold is influenced by several factors, including the positive attitude of global central banks towards gold, increased risk aversion, and rising inflation expectations [3] - The instability of the U.S. tariff policy and potential challenges to the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to a decline in global trust in the U.S. dollar, driving up demand for gold [3] Group 3: Historical Context - Historical analysis shows that gold price cycles typically last around 10 years, with the current bull market starting in 2016, following previous cycles in 1971-1980 and 2001-2011 [4][3] - The adjustment cycles of gold prices lack clear patterns, with significant adjustments occurring after 1981 and a shorter adjustment period after 2011 [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - If the current upward trend continues, 2025-2026 may represent a critical turning point for the gold market, as it is currently in an accelerated upward phase [5] - Investors should analyze both fundamental and technical aspects to determine if the current bull market is ending, with a technical bear market indicated by a drop of over 20% from peak prices [6] - The ongoing influence of U.S. tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's independence will be crucial in shaping future gold price movements and market sentiment [6]