Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The short - term price trends of domestic and foreign soybean futures may diverge. The external market is suppressed by South American bumper harvests, while the domestic market is supported by stocking demand. Palm oil shows a relatively strong performance in the oil and fat sector, driven by market sentiment and marginal improvements in the industrial chain supply - demand situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: follows the external market, with an intraday view of being slightly stronger; medium - term: oscillating [5][6]. - **Driving Factors**: The US soybean price has declined due to the expected increase in China's soybean imports from Brazil. Although the US soybean export inspection volume has increased by 79% year - on - year, the cumulative annual volume is still lower than the same period last year. Domestic Spring Festival stocking demand supports bean prices, and the feed enterprises' active pick - up before the festival has reduced the oil mills' inventory pressure. The recovery of the crushing profit on the futures market has led to a large - scale transaction of far - month contracts, limiting the rebound space of bean meal [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: in a policy - sensitive period, maintaining a relatively strong operation pattern; medium - term: strong; intraday: slightly stronger [6][7]. - **Driving Factors**: Malaysian palm oil has seen a decline in production and an increase in exports. Favorable high - frequency data have improved the supply - demand situation and alleviated inventory pressure, driving up the price. India's cancellation of over 50,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina and turning to palm oil procurement has provided demand support. The domestic palm oil futures price has followed the external market, with market sentiment significantly warming up. High import costs, limited purchases, a slight reduction in port inventory, and a firm spot basis have all contributed to the strong performance [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Short - term: strong; medium - term: strong; intraday: slightly stronger; reference view: slightly stronger [6]. - **Driving Factors**: Supported by US soybean cost, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

棕油劲升、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 油脂板块继续强势运行，棕榈油领涨，因马来西亚棕油供减需增， 且印度取消南美豆油采购，转向采购棕榈油，需求利好提振棕油扩大 上涨空间，后市料偏强运行。生猪破位下行，因养殖端在节前或集中 出栏，供应端压力较大，需求端对猪源承接一般，生猪期价扩大下行 空间，后市或偏弱运行。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）棕榈油：强劲上扬 焦点关注：棕榈油主力 2605 合约强劲上扬，受到需求利好提振： 1. 棕榈油期价继续强劲走高，向上突破 9200 整数关位。高频数 据显示 1 月 1 日—25 日马来西亚棕榈油出口环比增长 9.97%，而同期 产量下降 14%，供减需增支撑棕油走高。此外印度再度取消巴西及阿 根廷 2 月和 4—7 月交付的豆油超 5 万吨，转向性价比更高的棕榈油 等热带植物油采购，给棕油带来利好提振。 2. 棕榈油 2605 合约多头增仓推动期价创阶段新高，期价在均线 系统之上扩涨，MACD 红柱放大，技术偏强，策略上逢低轻仓多单。 （二）生猪：突破下行 焦点关注：生猪主力 2603 合约突破下行，养殖端出栏压力仍存： 焦点关注：郑糖主力 2605 合约反弹受限，窄幅波动，报 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products sector shows a mixed performance, with vegetable oils rising across the board and led by rapeseed oil, while live pigs are falling. Rapeseed oil may remain strong in the future, and the subsequent start of the Spring Festival stocking for live pigs should be continuously monitored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil is leading the rise in the vegetable oil sector due to the increase in crude oil prices and potential US tariffs on Canada. The supply situation remains unimproved, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory is low year - on - year, supporting its upward trend. Live pigs are declining because of possible concentrated slaughter at the end of the year and the lack of concentrated manifestation of the holiday effect on the demand side [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Oils - Rapeseed oil and palm oil prices are rising. The main 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has soared by over 4%. Although China - Canada economic and trade relations have improved, the US threat of 100% tariffs on Canada may affect the import of Canadian rapeseed. Domestic rapeseed oil output is stagnant year - on - year, and the inventory is low. Malaysian palm oil supply - demand has improved, with production in January 1 - 20 down 16.06% month - on - month and exports from January 1 - 25 up 10% month - on - month, potentially leading to inventory reduction. The strategy is to go long on rapeseed oil at low prices after a pull - back [2]. 3.2.2 Live Pigs - The main 2603 contract of live pigs has opened low and fallen. As the Spring Festival approaches, the slaughter window for farmers is narrowing, and there may be concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The demand side has certain stocking needs, but the concentrated effect is not obvious. The strategy is to conduct short - term trading [3]. 3.2.3 Sugar - The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar has rebounded but is limited. China's new sugar is concentrated on the market, and the import volume has increased significantly. The pre - holiday stocking boost is limited, and the market is cautious. The strategy is to go short at high prices, with resistance at 5200 - 5210 [6]. 3.2.4 Eggs - The main 2603 contract of eggs has opened high and then fallen, with the market fluctuating. The Spring Festival stocking has boosted demand, but the high inventory of laying hens still brings supply pressure. The strategy is to go short - term long at low prices, with a support area of 3050 - 3060 [7][9]. 3.2.5 Soybean Meal - The main 2605 contract of soybean meal has risen in an oscillatory manner. The increase in the price of US soybeans and the approaching Spring Festival have led to increased downstream stocking demand. The strategy is to go long with a light position, with support at 2749 - 2754 [10]. 3.2.6 Cotton - The main 2605 contract of cotton has fallen in an oscillatory manner. Domestic commercial inventory has increased slightly, and Xinjiang's inventory has decreased. The demand side has certain resilience, and the high - count yarn order demand is strong. The strategy is to go long with a light position at low prices, with a support area of 14465 - 14535 [12].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 26 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点参考 核心逻辑概要 <点击目录链接，直达品种 策略解析> 豆粕 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 进口大豆成本，进口到港节 奏，油厂开工节奏，库存压力 豆油 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 美豆成本支撑，美国生物燃 料政策，美豆油库存，国内 大豆成本支撑，供应节奏， 油厂库存 棕榈 2605 震荡 震荡 震荡 偏弱 震荡偏弱 马棕产量和出口，印尼生柴 和出口政策，欧盟相关政策 变化，国内到港和库存，替代 需求 品种：豆粕（ ...

Group 1: Corn Market - Domestic futures prices have both surpassed 2300, but without significant tightness in the fundamentals, price pressures arise from timing mismatches in stocking needs and spatial mismatches due to regional adjustments [4][13] - This week, corn arrivals are concentrated, with Guangdong expected to receive 534,000 tons; on the 23rd, state grain reserves auctioned 144,000 tons of corn, with a transaction volume of 132,000 tons, achieving a transaction rate of 91% [4][13] - The corn main contract is expected to observe support around 2250, with potential upward movement towards 2330 [5][14] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - U.S. cold wave weather raises concerns over winter wheat yield losses and processing plant shutdowns, while South American weather presents temporary risk premiums, leading to a rebound in CBOT soybeans [5][14] - Forecasts indicate favorable rainfall in most of Brazil for the coming week, beneficial for soybean growth, but continuous rainfall may delay harvesting; Argentina's main production areas still face drought risks [5][14] - The rebound in the U.S. market provides marginal support for meal prices, while concerns over potential tightness in domestic soybean supply and uncertainties in reserve release schedules also offer some support [5][14] Group 3: Egg Market - The spot price for eggs remains stable, with the average price in Hebei at approximately 3.51 yuan per jin, unchanged from the previous day; previous strong performance has led to a stagnation in price growth [6][16] - The total replenishment volume for 2025 is expected to decrease by approximately 42.2 million birds compared to 2024, but will still maintain a high level of about 1.015 billion birds [6][16] - Short-term support from pre-Spring Festival stocking may lead to a rebound, but caution is advised for potential post-holiday corrections; medium-term strategies should focus on the established trend of capacity reduction [6][16] Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 13.05 yuan per kilogram; profits from self-breeding and purchased piglets are nearing breakeven, indicating a significant alleviation of industry losses [7][17] - The improvement in pig farming profits and rising piglet prices signal short-term market recovery, but supply pressures are expected to persist into the first half of 2026 [7][17] - Current market recovery may hinder the path of capacity reduction, potentially limiting the upward space for spot prices [7][17]

农产品日报（2026 年 1 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 国家粮油信息中心：1 月 16 日，我国进口 2、3 月船期美国大豆 CNF 报价均为 473 美元/吨，较巴西大豆 高 25~29 美元/吨；折合华南地区到港完税成本 4183 元/吨（13%关税），较巴西大豆高 558~589 元/吨。 国家统计局：2025 年 12 月粗钢产量 6818 万吨，同比减少 10.3%，环比减少 2.4%；1-12 月产量为 96081 万 吨，同比减少 4.4%。2025 年 12 月钢材产量 11531 万吨，同比减少 3.8%，环比减少 0.5%；1-12 月产量为 144612 万吨，同比增长 3.1%。 国家统计局数据显示，全年全国粮食总产量 71488 万吨，比上年增加 838 万吨，增长 1.2%。分品种看，小 麦产量 14007 万吨，基本持平；玉米产量 30124 万吨，增长 2.1%；大豆产量 2091 万吨，增长 1.3%。 国家统计局：初步核算，2025 年全年国内生产总值 1401879 亿元，比上年增长 5.0%。分产业看，第一产业 增加值 93347 亿元，比上年增长 3.9%；第二产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For sugar, the current raw sugar price has fallen below the support of the Brazilian ethanol conversion price. After the new Brazilian sugar - cane crushing season in April this year, there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio. After the northern hemisphere starts to finish the sugar - cane crushing in February and the negative impact of increased production is basically realized, the international sugar price may rebound. The supply of imported sugar in China is gradually decreasing, and the downside space of the sugar price in the short - term is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [4]. - For cotton, in the medium - to - long - term, with the reduction of the planting area in the new year and the positive macro - economic expectations in the future, the cotton price still has room to rise. However, due to the large short - term increase, it needs time to digest. It is recommended to wait for the price to pull back and then choose the opportunity to go long [9]. - For protein meal, the January USDA report data is slightly bearish. Although the overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season, the increase in China's purchase of US soybeans supports the CBOT US soybean price but is bearish for the domestic meal prices. The possible significant reduction of the import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed is also a major bearish factor for domestic rapeseed prices. The protein meal price has fallen to the previous low, and with many bearish news, the short - term volatility will increase. It is recommended to wait and see for now [13]. - For oils and fats, the high production and weak exports in the main palm - oil producing areas have led to high inventories. The inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats is also at a relatively high level, and the current fundamentals are weak. However, in the long - term, the expected reduction of production in Malaysia, the confiscation of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the expected increase in US biodiesel soybean - oil consumption in 2026 are positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [18]. - For eggs, due to insufficient inventory accumulation under the previous pessimistic sentiment, the spot price increase during the pre - festival stocking period exceeded expectations, driving the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. However, the overall supply is still abundant, and the spot price is about to realize the seasonal increase. The near - month contracts have post - festival attributes and may fluctuate with limited upside and downside. The far - end contracts have long - term positive expectations due to the peak of production capacity, but the realization path is uncertain. Attention should be paid to the pressure after over - valuation [21]. - For pigs, low prices and the festival effect have stimulated consumption. The large difference between the prices of fat and standard pigs has led to sentiment of holding back sales and delaying slaughter. After the Winter Solstice, the spot price has increased significantly, driving the futures price to rebound rationally. In the short - term, the structural contradiction has not been resolved, and the downward driving force of the spot price is insufficient, which may continue to support the near - month contracts to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - term, the supply base is still large, and there is a risk of the live - pig inventory piling up later. The far - end price may still be under pressure in the future [24]. Summary by Product Sugar - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fluctuated weakly. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng sugar was 5158 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5260 - 5330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - **Industry Data**: In the second half of December 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 2.171 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year increase of 26.60%. The sugar production was 56,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.93%. The sugar - cane - to - sugar ratio was 21.24%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points compared with the same period last year. In December 2025, China imported 580,000 tons of sugar, an increase of 190,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative sugar imports were 4.92 million tons, an increase of 570,000 tons year - on - year. As of the end of December in the 2025/26 sugar - cane crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 1.77 million tons, an increase of 310,000 tons year - on - year. In December 2025, China imported a total of 69,700 tons of syrup and premixed powder, and the cumulative imports in 2025 were 1.1888 million tons. As of January 15, 2026, India's national sugar production had reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase compared with 13.044 million tons in the same period last year. The number of sugar mills still in operation increased from 500 in the same period last year to 518 [3]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rebounded. The closing price of the May contract of Zheng cotton was 14,730 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton or 1.34% from the previous trading day. The spot price of China's cotton price index (CCIndex) 3128B was 15,839 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [6]. - **Industry Data**: In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year. In 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year. As of the week of January 16, the spinning mill's operating rate was 64.6%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week and an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The national commercial cotton inventory was 5.69 million tons, an increase of 380,000 tons year - on - year. The January 2026 USDA forecast for the 2025/26 global cotton production was 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous season. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 62.63%, a decrease of 1.42 percentage points compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 0.62 percentage points compared with the previous season. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US cotton production was 3.03 million tons, a decrease of 76,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast. The export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, a decrease of 2.17 percentage points. The production forecast for Brazil remained unchanged at 4.08 million tons, the production forecast for India was revised down by 110,000 tons to 5.12 million tons, and the production forecast for China was revised up by 220,000 tons to 7.51 million tons. As of the week of January 8, the US current - year cotton export sales were 80,600 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 1.6231 million tons, a decrease of 191,000 tons year - on - year. Among them, the export to China in that week was 13,600 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 85,300 tons, a decrease of 71,200 tons year - on - year [7][8]. Protein Meal - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the protein meal futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean meal was 2768 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton or 1.58% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed meal was 2228 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Dongguan soybean meal was 3100 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of Huangpu rapeseed meal was 2440 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [11]. - **Industry Data**: In 2025, China's total soybean imports were 111.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. Among them, the supply from Brazil was 82.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.3%, and the supply from the US was 16.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24%. China and Canada reached a preliminary trade agreement, and China promised to reduce the combined import tax rate of Canadian rapeseed to about 15% at one time. As of the week of January 8, the US exported 2.06 million tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative soybean exports were 30.64 million tons. Among them, the export to China in that week was 1.22 million tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 8.12 million tons. As of the week of January 16, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous week. The sample soybean port inventory was 7.72 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous week. The operating rate of sample soybean oil mills was 55.97%, an increase of 6.47 percentage points year - on - year. The sample oil mill soybean meal inventory was 840,000 tons, a decrease of 86,000 tons from the previous week [12]. Oils and Fats - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the oils and fats futures price rose. The closing price of the May contract of soybean oil was 8084 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.5% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of palm oil was 8944 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan/ton or 1.27% from the previous trading day. The closing price of the May contract of rapeseed oil was 9002 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day. The spot price of Zhangjiagang first - grade soybean oil was 8650 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8980 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9830 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15]. - **Industry Data**: From January 1 - 20, 2026, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, the fresh fruit bunch yield per unit area decreased by 16.49%, and the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08%. As of the week of January 16, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats was 1.98 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the previous week. The US government plans to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March. Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (i.e., the B50 plan) this year and will maintain the current B40 plan. The January 2026 USDA forecast for US soybean oil consumption was 1.32 million tons, a decrease of 249,000 tons compared with the December 2025 forecast and an increase of 1 million tons compared with the previous year. In December 2025, India's total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons compared with November 2025. As of the end of December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 7.56% month - on - month to 3.05 million tons, higher than the expected 2.97 million tons. The production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month to 1.83 million tons, higher than the estimated 1.76 million tons. The export volume increased by 8.52% month - on - month to 1.32 million tons, better than the expected 1.25 million tons [15][17]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, most of the national egg prices rose, and a few remained stable. The average price in the main production areas rose 0.08 yuan to 3.73 yuan/jin. The price in Heishan remained unchanged at 3.4 yuan/jin, the price in Guantao rose 0.12 yuan to 3.56 yuan/jin, and the price in Xishui remained unchanged at 3.64 yuan/jin. The supply was limited, the downstream sales speed increased, most traders' confidence in the future market recovered, the inventory in most links was stable, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm increased. It is expected that most of the national egg prices may rise today, and a few may remain stable [20]. Pigs - **Market Quotes**: Yesterday, the domestic pig price rose in the north and fell in the south. The average price in Henan rose 0.06 yuan to 13.13 yuan/kg, and the average price in Sichuan fell 0.1 yuan to 12.71 yuan/kg. The breeding side in the northern region showed a mentality of holding back sales, and it may be more difficult for the downstream to purchase pigs at low prices. The pig price may rise slightly today. The sales in the southern market were weak, and the breeding side may still have actions to reduce prices for sales. The pig price may continue to decline [23].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures showed mixed results on January 22, with soybean futures declining slightly while corn and wheat futures experienced gains [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures closed down by 0.05%, settling at 1064 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures increased by 0.53%, closing at 424 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures rose by 1.58%, ending at 515.75 cents per bushel [1]

2026年01月22日 | 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆题材不足，反弹高度受限 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹 | 4 | | 豆一：豆类市场氛围好转，盘面或震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行为主 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强20260122 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：情绪转弱 | 10 | | 生猪：现货转弱，旺季预期降低 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 观点与策略 商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 22 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 棕榈油：多重因素影响，短期震荡偏强 豆油：美豆题材不足，反弹高度受限 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,832 | 涨跌幅 0.96% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,918 | 涨跌幅 0.97% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-21 供应压力不减，郑糖弱势整理 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14525元/吨，较前一日变动-20元/吨，幅度-0.14%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15557元/吨，较前一日变动-26元/吨，现货基差CF05+1032，较前一日变动-6；3128B棉全国均价15856元/吨， 较前一日变动-24元/吨，现货基差CF05+1331，较前一日变动-4。 近期市场资讯，2025年12月中国进口棉花17.73万吨，巴西棉进口稳居第一，进口10.67万吨，同比增3.1万吨，环比 增3.9万吨；其次澳棉进口3.69万吨，同比略增0.3万吨，环比略降0.2万吨；中亚棉进口1.22万吨，同比变动不大， 环比增0.6万吨，其余国家进口量均在1万吨以下。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，1月USDA下调全球棉花产量和期末库存，数据调整整体偏多。不过当前北半 球新棉大量上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美 棉预计仍将承压。中长期看， ...