Workflow
制造业采购经理指数(PMI)
icon
Search documents
7月份我国制造业PMI为49.3% 比上月下降0.4个百分点
Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index remains in expansion at 50.5%, with manufacturing production activities continuing to grow [1] Group 2 - The main raw materials purchasing price index and the factory price index are at 51.5% and 48.3%, respectively, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points from last month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market price levels [1] - The high-tech manufacturing PMI is at 50.6%, indicating continued expansion and strong resilience against shocks, driven by robust market demand and policy support [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.3%, showing that high-end equipment manufacturing is also maintaining expansion [1] Group 3 - Large enterprises show a good production and operational status, with production index and new orders index at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, both remaining in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [2] - The production and business activity expectation index for July is at 52.6%, up by 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [2] - The non-manufacturing business activity index also remains in expansion, with the business activity expectation index rising by 0.6 percentage points from last month, reflecting optimism among service industry enterprises [2]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:黑色系列-20250804
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 02:28
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Hot - rolled coil: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Ferrosilicon: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Silicomanganese: Market sentiment is cooling, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coke: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Coking coal: Market sentiment is reflected, and it will experience wide - range fluctuations [2] - Thermal coal: Daily consumption is recovering, and it will stabilize with fluctuations [2] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 783.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton or 0.51%. The previous day's position was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore increased to varying degrees. Some basis and spread values also changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the closing price was 3,203 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton or - 1.23%. For HC2510, the closing price was 3,401 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton or - 0.58%. Spot prices in different regions changed slightly, and basis and spread values also had corresponding changes [8][9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to weekly data from Steel Union on July 31, rebar production decreased by 0.9 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 5.3 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 0.65 tons. Total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, and apparent demand decreased [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese changed, and spot prices of relevant products decreased. The prices of raw materials such as manganese ore and semi - coke also changed. The basis and spread values of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese also had corresponding adjustments [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In June 2025, South Africa's manganese ore exports were 229.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.8%. From January to June, the total manganese ore exports were 13.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke changed, and basis and spread values also had corresponding fluctuations [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's trading of thermal coal ZC2508 had no transactions. The opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared with the previous settlement price. Southern port and domestic origin prices of thermal coal are provided, and the long and short positions of the top 20 members on August 1 did not change [23][24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: No new relevant news is provided in the content. - **Trend Intensity**: Thermal coal has a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [25]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in the spot - futures spreads and inter - contract spreads. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [29].
7月份制造业PMI回落,新动能持续增长——经济总体产出保持扩张
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-08-01 00:53
Economic Overview - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, influenced by seasonal production slowdowns and extreme weather conditions [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the comprehensive PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, yet remaining above the critical point [1] - Despite short-term fluctuations due to extreme weather, production activities maintained expansion, indicating a solid foundation for economic recovery [3] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing new orders index fell to 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, while the production index was at 50.5%, still in the expansion zone for three consecutive months [1] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion in high-end equipment manufacturing [1] - The consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, down 0.9 percentage points, while the high-energy-consuming industries PMI improved slightly to 48%, up 0.2 percentage points [1] Price Trends - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was at 48.3%, increasing by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials in sectors like petroleum and coal processing, as well as black metal smelting, showed significant recovery [2] Business Activity by Company Size - In July, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points, with production and new orders indices at 52.1% and 50.7%, respectively, indicating sustained good operational conditions [2] - The PMI for medium-sized enterprises increased to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points, showing continued improvement in business sentiment [2] - The PMI for small enterprises was 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points, reflecting weaker business conditions [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points, with construction activity slowing due to adverse weather conditions [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was 50%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, while sectors related to travel and consumption showed strong performance with indices above 60% [4] - Non-manufacturing enterprises maintained stable optimism, with a business activity expectation index of 55.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating positive outlooks for the second half of the year [4]
7月份制造业采购经理指数环比下跌
Guo Jia Tong Ji Ju· 2025-08-01 00:48
Core Viewpoint - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3%, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Category Overall PMI - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing sentiment [1] By Enterprise Size - Large enterprises' PMI stands at 50.3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month, remaining above the critical point [1] - Medium enterprises' PMI is at 49.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from last month, but still below the critical point [1] - Small enterprises' PMI is at 46.4%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from last month, remaining below the critical point [1] Component Indices - Among the five component indices of the manufacturing PMI, the production index and supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, while the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index are below the critical point [1] - The production index is at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production [1] - The new orders index is at 49.4%, down 0.8 percentage points from last month, suggesting a slowdown in market demand for manufacturing [1] - The raw material inventory index is at 47.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating a continued decrease in major raw material inventories in manufacturing [1] - The employment index is at 48.0%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating a slight recovery in employment conditions within manufacturing [1] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers continue to accelerate [1]
7月份我国制造业PMI49.3%
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-07-31 19:05
Group 1 - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The production index stands at 50.5%, indicating a slight increase of 0.5 percentage points [1] - The main raw materials purchasing price index is at 51.5%, which reflects an increase of 3.1 percentage points [1] - The production and business activity expectation index is recorded at 52.6%, showing an increase of 0.6 percentage points [1]
7月份制造业PMI为49.3% 我国经济总体产出保持扩张
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2025-07-31 16:12
Group 1 - In July, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both showing a month-on-month decline of 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points, but remaining above the critical point, suggesting overall economic expansion [1] - The production index and new orders index were 50.5% and 49.4%, respectively, with declines of 0.5 and 0.8 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing production but a slowdown in market demand [1][2] Group 2 - Extreme weather conditions in July, including heatwaves and floods, hindered outdoor construction and daily life, impacting market demand [2] - The main raw materials purchasing price index rose to 51.5%, and the factory price index was 48.3%, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating an improvement in overall market price levels [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI and high-tech manufacturing PMI were 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, both above the critical point, while the consumer goods industry PMI was 49.5%, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.9 percentage points [2] Group 3 - The production and business activity expectation index was 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points month-on-month, indicating enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development [3] - The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, but still within the expansion range, indicating overall stability [3] - The summer holiday effect positively impacted sectors related to consumer travel and spending, with indices for railway transport, air transport, postal services, and cultural and sports entertainment exceeding 60.0%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [3]
7月制造业PMI指数回落至49.3%——分析人士:下半年有望稳步回升
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-31 12:01
期货日报网讯(记者杨美肖佳煊)国家统计局7月31日公布的数据显示,2025年7月制造业采购经理指数 (PMI)为49.3%,比上月下降0.4个百分点,制造业景气水平有所回落。 展望后市,中国物流与采购联合会副会长何辉表示,随着围绕城市更新、消费补贴等一系列扩大内需相 关政策持续落地,预计下半年投资与消费活动有望继续稳步回升。 从分类指数看,构成制造业PMI的5个分类指数中,生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界点,新 订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点。生产指数为50.5%,比上月下降0.5个百分点; 新订单指数为49.4%,比上月下降0.8个百分点;原材料库存指数为47.7%,比上月下降0.3个百分;从业 人员指数为48.0%,比上月上升0.1个百分点;供应商配送时间指数为50.3%,比上月上升0.1个百分点。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河在解读数据时表示,7月受制造业进入传统生产淡季,部 分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响,PMI降至49.3%,制造业景气水平较上月回落。 具体来看,赵庆河表示,一是生产指数保持扩张,生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.5%和49.4%,比上 月下降0 ...
股指日报:国内外双重利空,指数放量下跌-20250731
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 11:41
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - On July 31, 2025, the stock index dropped with heavy trading volume, and the decline of the large - cap stock index was greater. The main reasons for the market decline were the hawkish remarks of Powell at the Fed's July meeting, which led to a sharp rise in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, increasing external pressure, and the release of the July manufacturing PMI by the National Bureau of Statistics, which was lower than the previous month and lower than expected. Under the double negative impacts at home and abroad, the stock index declined overall. From the perspective of futures indicators, the volume - weighted average basis of all contracts except IH decreased slightly. The overall sentiment turned pessimistic, and the correction was expected to continue. If the index continued to fall, it was recommended that long - position holders take profit and exit [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index declined collectively on this day. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 1.82%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 91.756 billion yuan. In the futures market, IM dropped with heavy trading volume, while the other varieties dropped with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time, in line with expectations. Fed Chairman Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected. He also mentioned that the current interest rate level was appropriate given the uncertainties in tariffs and inflation, and it was still too early to judge the impact of tariffs on inflation. - The manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - If the decline continued, long - position holders could take profit and exit [5]. Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.77 | -1.44 | -1.38 | -0.88 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 15.6196 | 7.5925 | 11.9559 | 26.7774 | | Trading volume month - on - month (10,000 lots) | 1.8165 | 0.4976 | 1.4305 | 3.6495 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.0987 | 9.9966 | 22.7163 | 34.8264 | | Open interest month - on - month (10,000 lots) | -0.3716 | -0.3315 | -0.276 | 0.1767 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -1.18 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.73 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.25 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 19360.35 | | Trading volume month - on - month (100 million yuan) | 917.56 | [6]
7月制造业新动能稳健,高技术PMI持续扩张
Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, indicating a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a downturn in manufacturing activity [1][4]. Manufacturing PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI has decreased to 49.3%, with production index at 50.5% and new orders index at 49.4%, both showing declines from the previous month [1][4]. - The raw materials inventory index is at 47.7%, indicating a continued reduction in major raw material stocks, while the employment index has slightly increased to 48% [4][5]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.3%, suggesting that the delivery times for raw materials are improving [4]. Sector Performance - Key sectors such as railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and computer communication electronics are showing active production and new orders, while sectors like chemical raw materials and non-metallic mineral products are underperforming [5][6]. - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors have PMIs of 50.3% and 50.6%, respectively, remaining above the critical point, indicating ongoing expansion [6][7]. Economic Outlook - There is potential for demand recovery, with expectations that economic stabilization policies may be implemented to boost PMI [5][6]. - The price index for major raw materials has risen, with the purchasing price index at 51.5%, marking the first increase above the critical point since March [6][7]. Inventory and Business Confidence - The finished goods inventory index has decreased to 47.4%, reflecting cautious inventory adjustments by enterprises [7]. - Business confidence is improving, with the production and business activity expectation index rising to 52.6%, indicating a more optimistic outlook among manufacturers [7].
方正富邦基金区德成:7月制造业PMI指数出炉 经济短期波动向好恢复基础仍在 利好债市修复
Zhong Guo Jing Ji Wang· 2025-07-31 08:53
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the manufacturing PMI in China for July 2025 is at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - The PMI is a key indicator that reflects the economic conditions in the manufacturing sector, covering aspects such as production, orders, and inventory, and is considered a leading indicator for macroeconomic trends [1] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.3%, down 0.9 percentage points; medium enterprises saw an increase to 49.5%, up 0.9 percentage points; while small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.4%, down 0.9 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Among the 13 sub-indices, several showed increases compared to the previous month, including the purchasing price index, factory price index, employment index, supplier delivery time index, and production activity expectation index, with increases ranging from 0.1 to 3.1 percentage points [1] - Conversely, indices such as production, new orders, new export orders, backlog orders, finished goods inventory, purchasing volume, and raw material inventory all declined, with decreases ranging from 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points [1] - Despite short-term economic fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains stable, supported by steady domestic demand and manageable declines in the business ecosystem [1]