国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，12月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和 50.8%，比上月上升1.7个和1.6个百分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业 产需两端均较上月明显扩张。 中新社 北京12月31日电 (记者 王恩博)中国国家统计局2025年12月31日公布，12月份，中国制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩张区间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回 升。 值得注意的是，12月份重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分 点，行业增长态势向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升0.6个和1.0个百分 点，双双升至扩张区间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平继续回升。 12月份，生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点，制造业企业对市场发展信心继续增 强。受节前备货等因素带动，农副食品加工、食品及酒饮料精制茶等行业生产经营活动预期指数均升至 60.0%以上高位景气区间，相关企业对近期行业发展更为乐观。(完) 【责 ...

制造业生产经营活动预期指数创去年4月以来新高。 国家统计局12月31日发布的数据显示，12月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个 百分点，在连续8个月运行在50%以下后升至扩张区间。 中国物流信息中心文韬分析，前期推出的各项经济政策继续落实发力，中央经济工作会议明确指出实施 更加积极有为的宏观政策，有效提振了市场信心，加上大量企业制定新年规划进入细化与落实阶段，以 及春节备货重要节点临近，制造业市场需求有所释放。 需求端释放以及政策预期向好带动制造业企业生产活动较好扩张，生产指数为51.7%，较上月上升1.7个 百分点，指数升幅较为明显。 价格方面，12月原材料价格增势有所放缓，购进价格指数为53.1%，较上月下降0.5个百分点。主要集中 在高耗能行业和消费品制造业，两大行业的购进价格指数分别较上月下降2.3个和0.8个百分点，原因是 部分重要基础原材料价格有所下行，带动相关产业原材料价格增势放缓。 制造业产成品价格在需求释放的带动下趋稳运行，出厂价格指数为48.9%，较上月上升0.7个百分点，连 续2个月上升，且装备制造业、高技术制造业和高耗能行业的出厂价格指数均较上月有所上升。 ...

新华社北京12月31日电（记者王雨萧、魏玉坤）国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合 会12月31日发布数据显示，12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，4月份以来首次升至扩张区 间。在调查的21个行业中有16个行业PMI较上月回升，相关企业生产经营情况有所改善。 预期指数升至较高景气区间。12月份，生产经营活动预期指数为55.5%，比上月上升2.4个百分点， 制造业企业对市场发展信心继续增强。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:吴京泽】 数据显示，产需两端明显回升。12月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为51.7%和50.8%，比上月上 升1.7个和1.6个百分点，特别是新订单指数下半年以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业产需两端均较上月 明显扩张。 大型企业PMI重返扩张区间。12月份，大型企业PMI为50.8%，比上月上升1.5个百分点，升至临界 点以上；中型企业PMI为49.8%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，景气水平回升；小型企业PMI为48.6%，比上 月下降0.5个百分点，景气水平有所回落。 ...

Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index for December are 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, indicating a general recovery in economic sentiment as all three indices rise into the expansion zone [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has risen above the critical point for the first time since April, reaching 50.1%, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing improvement [2]. - Production index and new orders index are at 51.7% and 50.8% respectively, both showing significant increases of 1.7 and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating notable expansion in production and demand [4]. - The purchasing activity has accelerated, with the purchasing volume index rising to 51.1%, reflecting a positive trend in manufacturing [4]. - Large enterprises' PMI has returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI is at 49.8%, and small enterprises' PMI has decreased to 48.6% [4]. Key Industries - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 52.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, indicating a positive growth trend [4]. - Equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both have PMIs of 50.4%, showing increases of 0.6 and 1.0 percentage points respectively, also entering the expansion zone [4]. - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 48.9%, reflecting a continued recovery despite remaining below the expansion threshold [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating an improvement in non-manufacturing sentiment [6]. - The service sector's business activity index is at 49.7%, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points, although it remains in the contraction zone [9]. - The construction sector shows significant improvement with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 3.2 percentage points, indicating a strong recovery [9]. Market Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 55.5%, up 2.4 percentage points, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises [5]. - The service sector's business activity expectation index is at 56.4%, indicating enhanced confidence in future market developments [9]. - The construction sector's business activity expectation index is at 57.4%, remaining in a high confidence zone [9].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.1% in December, indicating an expansion in the manufacturing sector for the first time since April, reflecting an overall recovery in China's economic climate [4]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1%, with 16 out of 21 surveyed industries showing an increase compared to the previous month, indicating improved production and operational conditions [4]. - Both production index and new orders index saw significant increases, with production index at 51.7% (up 1.7 percentage points) and new orders index at 50.8% (up 1.6 percentage points), marking a notable expansion in demand [4]. - Large enterprises' PMI returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, while medium-sized enterprises' PMI was at 49.8%, and small enterprises' PMI decreased to 48.6%, indicating varied recovery levels across enterprise sizes [4]. Group 2: Key Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI was at 52.5%, showing a positive growth trend, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods industries both reached 50.4%, indicating expansion [5]. - The production expectations index rose to 55.5%, reflecting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding market development, particularly in the agricultural and food processing sectors [5]. Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index increased to 50.2%, indicating an improvement in the non-manufacturing sector's economic conditions [6]. - The service sector's business activity index was at 49.7%, with certain industries like telecommunications and financial services showing strong growth, while retail and catering remained in contraction [7]. - The construction sector's business activity index rose significantly to 52.8%, driven by favorable weather conditions and increased construction activity ahead of the holidays [7]. Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index reached 50.7%, indicating overall expansion in production and business activities across sectors, with manufacturing production index at 51.7% and non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.2% [8].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - policy in China is taking effect, and prices are showing positive changes. The upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference may have an impact. In the fundamentals, as the off - season approaches, downstream demand is weakening, and some steel mills are reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and the weekly output of rebar are decreasing. The demand for steel products is under pressure, and both building materials and plates are seeing a decline in consumption. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing due to the rapid decline in supply. The raw material prices are under pressure due to reduced demand from steel mills, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract has shifted to the far - month contract, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [62][63] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Part 1: Rebar Futures Market Review 1.1 Recent Important Information Overview - Economic data: In November, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable manufacturing production. The new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, showing improved market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating a continued decrease in raw material inventories. The employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points, showing a slight recovery in labor demand. The supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slightly faster delivery time. CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase mainly driven by the turnaround of food prices from a decline to an increase. In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and the purchase price index decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. The month - on - month increase of both was 0.1% [11] - Policy information: In November, the National Development and Reform Commission held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs in disorderly price competition. The December Central Economic Work Conference is upcoming [11] 1.2 Rebar Main Contract Trend - No specific trend content provided Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macro, Comparison, Basis 2.1 Macro - Monetary Quantity - No relevant content provided 2.2 Macro - Monetary Price - No relevant content provided 2.3 Comparison - Domestic and Foreign - No relevant content provided 2.4 Comparison - Other Commodities in the Industrial Chain - The prices and price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal in Shanghai and Qingdao are presented. For example, the price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) in Shanghai is 3,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.91%, a monthly increase of 1.55%, and an annual decline of 5.76% [25] - The basis data of rebar from November 21 to December 11, 2025, is provided. For example, on December 11, 2025, the futures price was 3069 yuan/ton, the delivery product price was 3230 yuan/ton, and the basis was 161 yuan/ton [27] Part 3: Rebar Spot Supply and Demand Overview 3.1 Steel Mill Raw Material Inventory - No relevant content provided 3.2 Blast Furnace Profit (Various Steel Products) - No relevant content provided 3.3 Blast Furnace Profit (Futures and Spot) - No relevant content provided 3.4 Blast Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.5 Electric Furnace Profit - No relevant content provided 3.6 Electric Furnace Operation - No relevant content provided 3.7 Daily Average Hot Metal Output - No relevant content provided 3.8 Weekly Steel Output - No relevant content provided 3.9 Weekly Rebar Output - No relevant content provided 3.10 Steel Mill Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.11 Social Inventory of Steel Products - No relevant content provided 3.13 Social Inventory of Rebar - No relevant content provided 3.14 Building Materials Transactions - No relevant content provided Part 4: Future Outlook - The macro - economic situation shows positive price changes. The off - season is coming, with weakening demand and some steel mills reducing production. The supply of five major steel products and rebar is decreasing. The consumption of building materials and plates is declining. The inventory of five major steel products is decreasing. The raw material prices are under pressure, and the cost support is insufficient. The main rebar contract is oscillating at a low level, and short - term operations are recommended [62][63]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [4][34] Summary by Related Sections 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract PB2601 of Shanghai lead futures showed a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend, ranging from around 17,010 yuan/ton to about 17,380 yuan/ton [8] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - In November, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the business climate. Among the five sub - indices of the manufacturing PMI, the supplier delivery time index was above the critical point, the production index was at the critical point, and the new orders index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were all below the critical point [12] 3. Spot Analysis - As of December 5, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 17,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 17,255 yuan/ton, 17,300 yuan/ton, and 17,270 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the premium or discount of 1 lead remained around a discount of - 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [15] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the average processing fees (factory - delivered prices) in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu were 200 yuan/metal ton, 400 yuan/metal ton, and 320 yuan/metal ton respectively. The average processing fee (truck - board price) in Kunming was 260 yuan/metal ton. As of October 31, 2025, the monthly refined lead output was 645,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%. Seasonally, the current output was at an average level compared to the past five years [22] 5. Inventory Situation - As of December 5, 2025, the refined lead inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 5, 2025, the LME lead inventory was 243,550 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 48.06% [28] 6. Fundamental Analysis - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the new orders index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing market demand. Lead processing fees continued to decline slowly and remained at a low level. In October, lead production was at a moderate level in recent years. Shanghai lead inventory continued to decline and was at a moderate level in recent years, while LME lead inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in recent years [33] 7. Future Outlook - Lead prices are likely to show a predominantly fluctuating and strengthening trend. Arbitrage opportunities are limited. It is recommended to mainly observe option contracts [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is likely to continue its loose monetary policy, with the market - expected probability of a December rate cut rising above 85%. External pressure has significantly eased, and the outlook for Sino - US tariffs is relatively optimistic. China's export performance is better than expected [75]. - In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved business conditions. The National Development and Reform Commission is working on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching, and its macro - policies should be watched [75]. - As the off - season arrives, downstream demand for steel is gradually weakening, and some steel mills are starting to cut production. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 3.1% week - on - week, with a significant decline in rebar production [75]. - There is still seasonal downward pressure on steel demand as the off - season deepens. The weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 2.7%, with construction materials consumption down 5.8% and plate consumption down 0.9% [76]. - The inventory of five major steel products continued to decline week - on - week, mainly due to the significant drop in steel production. The market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand with declining inventory [76]. - The price rebound of raw materials is limited due to the reduced demand from steel mill production cuts. The main rebar contract has shifted to the far - month contract, and the market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [77]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part 1: Review of Rebar Futures Market - **1.1 Recent Important Information Overview** - Economic data: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The production index was 50.0%, up 0.3 percentage points; the new order index was 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points; the raw material inventory index was 47.3%, unchanged; the employment index was 48.4%, up 0.1 percentage points; and the supplier delivery time index was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 87.6%, and the probability of maintaining the current rate is 12.4% [12]. - Policy information: The National Development and Reform Commission is working on formulating cost - determination standards for disorderly price competition. The Central Economic Work Conference in December is approaching [12]. 3.2 Part 2: Futures Market Environment: Macroeconomy, Price Ratios, and Basis - **2.1 Macro - Monetary Quantity**: Not detailed in the provided content - **2.2 Macro - Monetary Price**: The SHIBOR on December 4, 2025, was 1.5200, compared to 1.5460 on November 3, 2025. The monthly rate decreased, indicating a bullish outlook [22]. - **2.3 Price Ratio - Domestic and Overseas**: Not detailed in the provided content - **2.4 Price Ratio - Other Commodities in the Industry Chain** - The prices and their changes of rebar, hot - rolled coils, PB powder, metallurgical coke, and main coking coal are presented. For example, the price of rebar (HRB400 20mm in Shanghai) was 3,300 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.85%, a monthly increase of 3.45%, and an annual decrease of 4.62% [28]. - **2.5 Rebar Main Contract Basis**: Not detailed in the provided content 3.3 Part 3: Overview of Rebar Spot Supply and Demand - **3.2 - 3.5**: Information about blast - furnace profits (for various steel products and in the futures - spot market) not detailed in the provided content - **3.6 - 3.7**: Information about electric - furnace profits, electric - furnace start - up, and daily average hot - metal production not detailed in the provided content - **3.8 Steel Weekly Output**: On December 5, 2025, the steel output (including rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, and medium - thick plates) was 743.43 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.042835071 and a week - on - week decrease of 0.035696219 [45]. - **3.9 Rebar Weekly Output**: On December 5, 2025, the rebar output was 189.31 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.081376165 and a year - on - year decrease of 0.149092053 [48]. - **3.10 - 3.11**: Information about steel mill inventory and social inventory of steel not fully analyzed in the provided content - **3.13 Rebar Social Inventory**: The rebar social inventory and its week - on - week changes are presented. For example, on December 5, 2025, the inventory was 430.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.68 million tons [64]. - **3.14 Building Materials Transactions**: Not detailed in the provided content - **3.15 Rebar Mill Inventory**: The rebar mill inventory and its week - on - week changes are presented. For example, the inventory was 142.68 million tons with a week - on - week decrease of 4.05 million tons [61]. - **3.15 Rebar Total Inventory**: On December 5, 2025, the rebar total inventory was 503.81 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27.67 million tons [67]. - **3.15 Rebar Apparent Consumption**: On December 5, 2025, the rebar apparent consumption was 216.98 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 10.96 million tons [70]. 3.4 Part 4: Market Outlook - The external environment is relatively favorable with the Fed's likely rate cut and positive Sino - US tariff prospects. The domestic manufacturing PMI has improved, and policy support is expected from the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. However, in the off - season, steel demand is weakening, production is being cut, and the market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand with declining inventory. The raw material price rebound is limited, and the rebar market is oscillating at a low level. Short - term operations are recommended [75][76][77].

Core Insights - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.6%, showing a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a mild weakening in the recovery of the global economy [1][3]. Regional Analysis - The PMI for the Asian manufacturing sector remains unchanged from the previous month, staying above 50%, indicating continued expansion [3]. - The European manufacturing PMI is stable compared to last month but remains below 50%, suggesting contraction [3]. - The African manufacturing PMI has decreased from above 50% to below 50%, indicating a shift to contraction [3]. - The Americas' manufacturing PMI has also declined and continues to operate below 49%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the region [3]. Overall Economic Outlook - The overall index indicates a slight weakening in the recovery momentum of global manufacturing, although it remains above 49%, suggesting that the sector has not deviated from the recovery range observed throughout the year [3]. - Experts note that the global economy is experiencing moderate recovery within a certain range, with both upward potential and downward risks present [3]. - Long-term strategies for sustainable global economic development include fostering more inclusive and cooperative international partnerships [3].

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November is reported at 49.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that global manufacturing has not yet exited the recovery range observed this year, but the strength of the recovery still needs to be enhanced [1] - The PMI for Asian manufacturing stands at 50.7%, remaining stable from the previous month and indicating expansion, which supports global economic recovery [1] - European manufacturing PMI is at 49.6%, unchanged from last month, indicating a slow recovery trend without significant improvement in the overall uncertainty of the European economy [1] Group 2 - The Americas manufacturing PMI is reported at 48.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months, reflecting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector [1] - The African manufacturing PMI is at 49.4%, down 1.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a slowdown in growth and entering a contraction zone, suggesting that the stability and sustainability of economic recovery in Africa need further enhancement [1] - The analysis suggests that the global economy is experiencing moderate recovery within a certain range, with both upward potential and downward risks coexisting, emphasizing the need for enhanced resilience in global economic recovery [2]