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直播实录 | 对话陈太中:从宴请到自饮,白酒消费变了吗?
中泰证券资管· 2025-09-26 07:02
Core Viewpoint - The white liquor market is experiencing a shift from being a social tool to becoming a "lifestyle companion," with mid-to-high-end liquor consumption increasingly focused on self-enjoyment rather than social occasions [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumption structure of white liquor is changing, with traditional dining and self-drinking scenarios gaining share, aligning with the "self-enjoyment" trend [4]. - High-end liquor prices have recently decreased due to a decline in social demand and increased supply, allowing brands to cater to a broader customer base [5]. - The core social function of high-end liquor remains intact, but the proportion of self-enjoyment is expected to gradually increase from 10-20% [5][6]. Group 2: Brand and Consumer Behavior - White liquor's competitive edge lies in brand recognition and consumer loyalty rather than product iteration, as emotional value in social settings is paramount [6][7]. - High-end liquor brands maintain a significant portion of their sales from business banquets (60-70%), with gifting and collection also contributing [8][9]. - Regional brand strength influences consumption patterns, with local brands often having higher gifting ratios in their core markets [9][10]. Group 3: Pricing and Economic Factors - The pricing of white liquor is cyclical, influenced by economic conditions and supply strategies, with premium brands likely to maintain scarcity to enhance brand value [11][12]. - The trend of lower alcohol content in liquor is unlikely to transform it into a mass-market beverage like cola, as the consumer experience and value proposition differ significantly [11][12]. Group 4: Sales Channels and Trends - Instant retail services are impacting the distribution of mid-to-low-end liquor, while high-end liquor remains less affected due to authenticity concerns [15][16]. - The importance of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day as peak seasons for liquor sales is declining, with a shift towards experiences over gatherings [18][19].
国泰海通:即时零售或为白酒变革期新尝试 预计将持续扩容
智通财经网· 2025-09-26 05:52
我国零售行业经历了传统零售、电商、新零售的发展过程,即时零售极大缩短履约时间、丰富消费者选 择。近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大,2025年外卖大战边际催化,行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增 长。具体到酒水领域,酒类即时零售最早发源于1919、酒小二等垂类平台,2015年前后加速,形成垂 类、平台型、仓店一体型、前置仓型4类渠道模式;与此同时酒企加大布局与合作,酒类即时零售渗透 率显著提升。 酒类即时零售的兴起主要有三方面原因 智通财经APP获悉,国泰海通发布研报称,近年来我国即时零售规模迅速扩大,2025年外卖大战边际催 化,行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增长。回顾历史,白酒周期更替通常伴随渠道变革,当前行业深度 调整,较弱的价格和动销、较高的库存冲击线下传统渠道利润和现金流,而线上渠道仍较为景气,拥抱 即时零售不失为一种应变方式。据美团闪购测算2027年我国酒类即时零售市场规模有望达1000亿元、复 合增速有望接近中双位数,白酒、啤酒等核心品类有望受益。 国泰海通主要观点如下: 即时零售:大盘景气,酒类积极参与 一是消费习惯改变,消费者愈发追求便捷,且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需 求,压缩流 ...
研报掘金丨浙商证券:维持华致酒行“增持”评级,未来利润率有望改善
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-26 05:52
为348/78/64倍,维持"增持"评级。 浙商证券研报指出,华致酒行上半年归母净利润0.56亿元(同比-63.75%);25Q2归母净利润-0.29亿元 (24Q2为0.25亿元)。公司深耕"以客户为中心"的运营理念,全力推进以连锁门店为重心的营销网络体 系建设,"华致酒行+华致名酒库+华致优选"三大门店业态形成强大协同效应,共同驱动市场拓展。此 外,公司积极布局即时零售业务,通过整合现有门店资源与供应链优势,华致酒行构建起"线上下单、 门店发货、极速配送"的即时零售服务模式。依托"华致酒行""华致名酒库""华致优选"三大业态门店的 广泛布局,将其转化为即时零售的前置仓,实现了核心区域内的快速送达,大幅提升了消费者的购物效 率与满意度。受外部环境影响,公司利润率水平阶段性承压,未来利润率有望改善。由于25年酒类销售 受"禁酒令"影响较大,因此下调盈利预测,预计2025-2027年公司收入同比增速分别 为-28.07%/18.23%/8.30%;归母净利润同比增速为-37.17%/348.49%/21.48%;EPS为0.07/0.30/0.37元;PE ...
阿里巴巴20250924
2025-09-26 02:29
Summary of Alibaba's Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Alibaba - **Date**: September 24, 2025 Key Points Strategic Shift - Alibaba is transitioning from a decentralized to a centralized structure to focus on core business and improve overall performance, which is significant for the company's strategic adjustments [2][3] Instant Retail Market Potential - The instant retail market is projected to reach a size of 2 trillion to 3 trillion yuan, with Alibaba's Taobao Flash Purchase achieving peak orders of over 120 million and user numbers increasing to 300 million, nearing Meituan's market share [2][4] Investment in Instant Retail - Alibaba has invested 50 billion yuan in subsidies to support growth in the instant retail sector, optimizing its business by adjusting product categories and increasing non-food supply to enhance high-ticket and gross margin orders [2][5][6] Risk Management - To mitigate risks associated with subsidy reductions, Alibaba is focusing on developing non-food instant retail categories and improving order structure and fulfillment efficiency to achieve long-term stable growth [2][7] User Experience Enhancements - Investments in order allocation, route planning, and flash warehouses are expected to enhance user experience, improve delivery speed, and increase the number of merchants, potentially reaching Meituan's level [2][8] Impact of Taobao Flash Purchase - Taobao Flash Purchase is expected to drive low-frequency consumption habits and attract new users, with plans to integrate it into the Taobao app to boost main site traffic and cross-selling opportunities, ultimately enhancing advertising revenue and customer relationship management [2][9] Cloud Business Growth - Alibaba Cloud's revenue growth accelerated, reaching a 26% increase in Q2, driven by overseas market demand and a shift in revenue structure towards higher-margin PaaS, SaaS, and AI services [2][10] AI Capabilities - Alibaba Cloud has established a robust AI stack, providing various GPU elastic computing services and AI capabilities, which enhances its competitive edge in the AI application field [2][11][12] Future Trends in Cloud Business - The growth of Alibaba Cloud is fueled by the migration of traditional IT customers to cloud services, with significant demand from state-owned enterprises and the automotive sector, indicating a large future scale and growth potential [2][13] Chip Development Advantages - Alibaba's self-developed chips enhance its product structure and profitability, with a focus on AI model capabilities across its cloud products, and expansion into overseas markets with new data centers [2][14] Collaboration with Software Vendors - Partnerships with major software vendors like SAP are expected to generate incremental revenue and enhance customer acquisition for both parties [2][15] Application of Large Models - The Tongyi Qianwen large model has been implemented in various scenarios, with a focus on multi-modal development and specialized model releases in the future [2][16] Impact of AI Technology - The integration of AI technology is expected to reshape cloud demand and highlight Alibaba's technological differentiation, ensuring high profitability and attracting more customers to AI services [2][17]
又一酒企加码即时零售 国台与酒小二携手合作
Nan Fang Du Shi Bao· 2025-09-25 23:12
据南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者了解,在此次战略合作后,国台或将借助酒小二销售网络"直 面"消费者。后者的前置仓覆盖18省500余市县。2024年,酒小二GMV(商品交易总额)超40亿元,前 置仓数量突破2000个,配送员超1.2万人。业界认为,在即时零售模式的加持下,国台酒有望在消费端 作出进一步拓展。 又有一家白酒企业加码即时零售渠道。 9月23日,酱酒头部企业国台与即时零售平台酒小二达成了新零售战略合作,根据相关合作协议,双方 共同在新零售领域深入合作,共同探索酒类电商新模式和新路径,推动白酒行业创新发展。与此同时, 针对本次战略合作,国台还发布专属定制产品"国台青酝"。 据南都湾财社记者了解,包括国台在内,今年以来多家酒水企业主动拥抱即时零售。白酒方面,今年8 月,贵州茅台就以旗下酱香系列酒产品与即时零售平台展开深度合作,将自营门店和合作终端,通过即 时零售的配送机制打通"消费者最后一公里";今年3月,贵州习酒与部分即时零售平台达成战略合作; 而啤酒企业则是与即时零售合作更早,包括青岛啤酒、华润啤酒和燕京啤酒等,与多个即时零售平台建 立起战略合作关系。 业界分析认为,作为一个活跃多年的线上消费模 ...
线下温和回暖、线上加速出清白酒市场的“双面旺季”
Bei Jing Shang Bao· 2025-09-25 12:51
线下终端温和回升 一家位于方庄附近的烟酒店内,店主坐在不足20㎡的店铺中等待着客人的光临。尽管其附近有餐饮店以及KTV等场所,但前来选购白酒产品的消费者却是 寥寥。店主表示:"随着中秋和国庆双节来临,白酒消费虽然相较于往年来说仍有些动力不足,但对比今年淡季,目前稍显回暖态势。" 不仅仅是该店,位于地坛附近的烟酒店也遇到了同样的情况。烟酒店店主向北京商报记者表示:"目前酒水消费有所回暖是基于旺季来临,但在淡季积压的 库存目前仍在待消化过程中。所以今年双节前备货更谨慎了,不再像往年那样大规模压货。" 线下渠道在中秋、国庆前逐渐回暖,而线上即时零售渠道正成为行业新增量战场。9月25日,北京商报记者走访了北京部分终端市场发现,双节临近,白酒 消费旺季即将开启,白酒产品在线上与线下市场动销情况不尽相同。线下渠道经销商备货谨慎叠加消费端温和回暖,线上渠道即时零售业态快速崛起,共同 勾勒出今年白酒消费旺季开端的全貌。 如今,当白酒旺季的序幕逐渐拉开时,如何借助深度挖掘消费场景从而进一步激活线上与线下市场的活力,成为摆在酒企面前的新问题。 事实上,目前终端市场消费活力不足的情况早有显现。中国酒业协会发布的《2025中国白酒市 ...
国泰海通 · 晨报0926|债市、白酒
【固收】 墨西哥债市全览:拉美地区成熟且结构完善的债券市场 墨西哥宏观经济与债务环境演变: 债务高速扩张酿成危机,后改革逐步改善债务结构与管理。20世纪70年代,墨西哥依靠石油出口和外资流入实现经济快速 扩张,债务规模激增,外债占比超过60%。随着石油危机和美国利率飙升,墨西哥于1982年爆发债务危机。进入21世纪后,墨政府通过稳健财政和结构性改 革逐步化解历史债务风险,债务结构趋于合理。截至2025年,墨西哥政府债券总额达14.5万亿比索,其中固定利率债和通胀挂钩债占比提升,反映出政府倾 向于长期、低利率融资和对冲通胀的战略安排。当前经济增速温和,外部融资需求持续,墨西哥央行降息减轻债务负担,整体债务可持续性有所改善。 墨西哥债券市场是拉美地区最成熟和国际化程度较高的固定收益市场之一。 央行独立实施货币政策,依托丰沛外汇储备与稳健资产负债表,在近年通胀波动 背景下灵活调整利率,维护金融稳定。墨西哥采纳灵活汇率制度,汇率自由浮动,具备作为外部冲击缓冲器的功能,且外汇管制程度较低。债券发行、交易、 结算等基础设施完善,集中交易平台(BMV)和场外市场互补,结算系统高度电子化、标准化。法治环境与国际规范接轨,债务 ...
国泰海通|食饮:白酒:即时零售渠道兴起——白酒新渠道专题报告
报告导读: 2025 年以来供需共同驱动即时零售渠道扩张,本轮渠道浪潮有望为酒类品牌 提供结构性机会,白酒、啤酒等领域具备较强渠道力和资金实力的企业有望受益。 投资建议: 零售渠道正经历变革、呈现结构性增长,即时零售成为酒类渠道亮点。 1 )白酒仍在磨底,全国化名酒及区域头部酒企韧性相对较强、具备领先 的渠道开拓能力和资金实力 ; 2 )啤酒作为酒类第二大品类、客群广泛,在即时零售中的参与度较高,推荐龙头及成长标的 。 即时零售:大盘景气,酒类积极参与。 我国零售行业经历了传统零售、电商、新零售的发展过程,即时零售极大缩短履约时间、丰富消费者选择。近年来我 国即时零售规模迅速扩大, 2025 年外卖大战边际催化,行业有望在未来几年维持双位数增长。具体到酒水领域,酒类即时零售最早发源于 1919 、酒小二 等垂类平台, 2015 年前后加速,形成垂类、平台型、仓店一体型、前置仓型 4 类渠道模式;与此同时酒企加大布局与合作,酒类即时零售渗透率显著提 升。 我们认为酒类即时零售的兴起主要有三方面原因。 一是消费习惯改变,消费者愈发追求便捷,且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需求, 压缩流通环节的同时 ...
白酒:即时零售渠道兴起:白酒新渠道专题报告
白酒:即时零售渠道兴起 [Table_Industry] 食品饮料 白酒新渠道专题报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 訾猛(分析师) | 021-38676442 | zimeng@gtht.com | S0880513120002 | | 颜慧菁(分析师) | 021-23183952 | yanhuijing@gtht.com | S0880525040022 | | 李美仪(分析师) | 021-38038667 | limeiyi@gtht.com | S0880524080002 | 本报告导读: 2025 年以来供需共同驱动即时零售渠道扩张,本轮渠道浪潮有望为酒类品牌提供结 构性机会,白酒、啤酒等领域具备较强渠道力和资金实力的企业有望受益。 投资要点: [Table_Invest] 评级: 增持 [Table_Report] 相关报告 食品饮料《关注低估值&确定性带来价值修复机 会》2025.09.20 食品饮料《社零环比降速,线上稳中有升》 2025.09.18 食品饮料《白酒报表逐步出清,茅 ...
国泰海通:即时零售成为酒类渠道亮点 全国化名酒及区域头部酒企韧性相对较强
智通财经网· 2025-09-25 02:40
一是消费习惯改变,消费者愈发追求便捷,且临时需求激发后希望快速得到满足。二是契合性价比需 求,压缩流通环节的同时节省运营成本,叠加部分平台投入费用补贴,价格优势明显。三是供给侧驱 动,渠道方有意通过新兴渠道获取增量,品牌方为增加触达和收入愿意配合渠道进行推新、宣发等动 作。 即时零售是白酒变革期的一种尝试,预计将持续扩容 对白酒行业而言该行认为即时零售利弊兼具,利在于高效履约可创造一部分增量,且有助于品牌触达年 轻群体;弊在于线上渠道难以提供社交、鉴真服务及情绪价值,对产品价格体系有所影响,可能冲击品 牌形象。回顾历史,白酒周期更替通常伴随渠道变革,当前行业深度调整,较弱的价格和动销、较高的 库存冲击线下传统渠道利润和现金流,而线上渠道仍较为景气,拥抱即时零售不失为一种应变方式。中 外对比来看,海外国家亦有此类尝试,证明了酒水即时零售的可行性,考虑海外商品消费线上化率整体 低于国内、尤其欧美国家配送效率及成本优势一般,该行认为国内酒水即时零售还有较大发展空间。据 美团闪购测算2027年我国酒类即时零售市场规模有望达1000亿元、复合增速有望接近中双位数,白酒、 啤酒等核心品类有望受益。 风险提示:渠道转型及扩 ...