1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the text 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of finished products is expected to move in a range-bound consolidation [2] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to experience intensified range-bound fluctuations, with a focus on capital movements and attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will halt production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, resuming around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5, and most others plan to stop around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. Winter storage this year is sluggish, providing weak price support [2] Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, affected by domestic lithium mine production dynamics, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 108,600 yuan/ton, up 7.97%. Trading volume increased by 93.9% to 1.1586 million lots, with a slight 0.4% increase in positions. The net short position of the main contract continued. The spot price was 97,050 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 11,570 yuan/ton, indicating a significant premium of futures over spot [1] - The overall trading activity does not match the price increase, mainly supported by the rigid demand of a small number of enterprises [1] - On the supply side, raw material prices rose slightly, with a significant YoY increase, strengthening cost support. The weekly operating rate was 51.29%, a 0.27% MoM increase, and output was 21,998 tons, a 0.33% MoM increase. The spodumene process was the main growth driver [2] - On the demand side, the production of cathode materials slightly declined, and inventory continued to be depleted. The processing fee of some lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly increased in 2026 [2] - In the terminal market, in November, the production of new - energy vehicles and automotive lithium - ion batteries increased by 17% and 32.7% YoY respectively. As of December 7, new - energy vehicle sales increased significantly YoY, and the penetration rate increased MoM [2] - As of December 11, the weekly inventory continued to be depleted, and the overall inventory remained tight, supporting prices [2] - Macroeconomic policies such as the Fed's potential interest rate cut, Qinghai Salt Lake industry plan, and the Central Economic Work Conference have positive impacts on the long - term supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate [3] - Due to factors like the tight supply - demand balance, overseas resource/复产 news, and domestic lithium mine production dynamics, capital speculation has intensified. Considering future capacity release and the net short position of the main contract, short - term price fluctuations may widen [3]

晨报 碳酸锂 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 碳酸锂：市场情绪高涨 聚焦资金博弈与供需边际 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 16 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日碳酸锂主力合约 LC2605 较上一交易日上涨 3.42%至 10.16 万元/吨，成交和持仓量持续放量，主力净空格局延续，资金博弈加剧价格 波动，盘面价格中心持续上移。截至收盘，SMM 数据显示电碳均价 95，150 元/吨，主力合约基差扩大至-6，450 元/吨，期现背离加剧。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2 ...

刘宇航：在跨境电商、高端制造、生鲜贸易等行业重点领域带动下，10月民航国际货邮运输量增速 超过20%。1月至10月中欧、中亚班列累计开行2.8万列，同比增长7.8%，港口集装箱吞吐量同比增长 6.4%。 1月至10月，重点物流企业物流业务收入同比增长4.4%，增速连续三个月保持基本稳定。同时物流 企业盈利能力增强，持续推进成本控制。重点物流企业收入利润率仍维持3.3%，与前三季度基本持 平。 中国物流信息中心主任刘宇航：10月份，新能源汽车、汽车用锂离子电池等绿色产品物流量分别增 长19.3%、30.4%，显著高于社会物流总额平均水平。 1月至10月，物流业总收入11.8万亿元，同比增长4.5%。运输物流结构持续调整优化。国际物流中 新兴市场成为主要增长点。 央广网北京11月30日消息（记者张棉棉 潘嵘）据中央广播电视总台中国之声《新闻和报纸摘要》 报道，中国物流与采购联合会日前发布，1月至10月，我国社会物流总额达293.7万亿元，同比增长 5.1%。高端化、绿色化制造拉动作用显著。 从结构看，工业品物流总额同比增长5.3%，占社会物流总额的比重88%，其中装备制造、高端制造 等领域拉动增长的核心动力依然较 ...

Economic Overview - The transportation sector in China has shown a stable and progressive development trend in the first ten months of the year, according to the Ministry of Transport [1][7] - Fixed asset investment in transportation reached 2.95 trillion yuan, maintaining a high level [3] Freight and Passenger Movement - The total freight volume reached 48.29 billion tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.5% [5] - Cross-regional passenger flow reached 56.88 billion person-times, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6% [5] Port Activity - Port cargo throughput increased to 15.13 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [5] - Container throughput at ports reached 29 million TEUs, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [5] Logistics Sector Performance - The total social logistics value for the first ten months was 29.37 trillion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [8] - Industrial product logistics value grew by 5.3%, driven by strong demand in equipment manufacturing and high-end manufacturing sectors [10] - Logistics revenue for the industry increased by 4.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing structural adjustments [10] E-commerce and New Business Models - Online retail of physical goods has outpaced digital product retail growth, highlighting stable demand in e-commerce logistics [12] - New business models such as instant retail and live e-commerce are experiencing robust growth, contributing to logistics demand [10] Smart Manufacturing Initiatives - The first batch of leading smart factories was announced, indicating a shift towards intelligent manufacturing [14] - These factories are expected to drive innovation and transform production methods across various industries [14] IoT and Digital Economy Growth - China's IoT connections are projected to exceed 3.5 billion this year, with significant investments in related infrastructure [17][20] - The traditional digital economy's annual output value is expected to surpass 80 trillion yuan, with over 1.2 million enterprises meeting advanced digital economy conditions [20] Internationalization of Private Enterprises - The internationalization of private enterprises is expanding, with overseas revenue projected to reach 5.215 trillion yuan in 2024, a nearly 12% increase [24] - The export value of internationalized private enterprises is expected to exceed 3.283 trillion yuan, growing over 10% [24] Foreign Exchange Market Activity - In October, China's foreign exchange market recorded a total turnover of 21.97 trillion yuan, with cumulative turnover for the year reaching 252.07 trillion yuan [26][27]

Core Insights - The total social logistics volume in China reached 293.7 trillion yuan from January to October this year, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, with a monthly growth of 4.8% in October [1] Group 1: Logistics Demand and Growth - The logistics demand scale is steadily growing, with structural adjustments becoming more pronounced [1] - The logistics volume of industrial products increased by 5.3% year-on-year from January to October [1] - In October, logistics demand related to automobile manufacturing grew significantly by 16.8% year-on-year, indicating strong growth momentum [1] Group 2: Consumer Goods Logistics - The logistics volume for units and residential goods maintained a rapid growth rate, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% from January to October [1] - Online consumption logistics remain active, with new business models such as instant retail and live e-commerce experiencing double-digit growth in related logistics demand [1] Group 3: New Energy Sector - The logistics demand for the new energy industry chain continues to grow at a high speed, with logistics volumes for new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for automobiles increasing by 19.3% and 30.4% year-on-year in October, respectively [1]

Core Insights - The total social logistics volume in China for the first ten months of this year reached 293.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [1] Logistics Demand and Growth - The logistics demand scale is showing stable growth, with structural adjustments and optimization characteristics becoming more prominent [1] - The logistics volume of industrial products increased by 5.3% year-on-year, driven primarily by strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-end manufacturing sectors [1] - The logistics volume for units and residential goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, with online consumption logistics remaining active, particularly in new business models like instant retail and live e-commerce, which are experiencing double-digit growth [1] New Energy Sector - The logistics demand in the new energy industry chain continues to grow rapidly, with significant increases in logistics demand for green products such as new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for automotive use, surpassing the average growth rate of social logistics volume [1] Revenue and Structural Adjustments - The total revenue of the logistics industry increased by 4.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing structural adjustments and optimization in transportation logistics [1]

Core Insights - The logistics sector in China has shown steady progress in the first ten months of 2023, with a total social logistics volume reaching 293.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [3][5] Logistics Performance - The total logistics volume for industrial products grew by 5.3%, accounting for 88% of the overall logistics volume, with strong growth driven by equipment manufacturing and high-end manufacturing sectors [3][12] - The logistics volume for units and residential goods increased by 6.4%, with a slight rise in its proportion, indicating robust growth in online consumption logistics, particularly in new business models like instant retail and live e-commerce [5][8] E-commerce and New Consumption Trends - The growth rate of online retail for physical goods outpaced that of digital products, highlighting the stable growth of e-commerce platforms and logistics demand [8] - The logistics demand for the new energy industry chain has seen significant growth, with logistics volumes for new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries increasing by 19.3% and 30.4%, respectively [12] Logistics Efficiency and Revenue - The logistics industry’s total revenue reached 11.8 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with ongoing optimization in the transportation logistics structure [14] - The efficiency of logistics operations has steadily improved since 2025, with a notable increase in the coordination between logistics supply scale and efficiency [12] International Logistics Growth - Emerging markets have become key growth points in international logistics, with air cargo transport volume increasing by over 20% in October, driven by cross-border e-commerce and high-end manufacturing [18] - The number of China-Europe and China-Central Asia freight trains reached 28,000, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.8%, while port container throughput increased by 6.4% [21] Profitability of Key Logistics Enterprises - Key logistics enterprises reported stable revenue growth, with logistics business income increasing by 4.4% year-on-year, maintaining a consistent growth rate over the past three months [21][22] - The profitability of logistics companies has improved, with costs per hundred yuan of logistics business income decreasing to 95.8 yuan, while the income profit margin remained stable at 3.3% [22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economy remains stable, with key sectors showing solid growth, particularly in the digital manufacturing industry, which saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in value added for the first ten months [2] - Emerging industries such as aerospace, low-altitude economy, quantum technology, and embodied intelligence are expected to become new pillars of high-quality economic development, as highlighted in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2] - The transition towards high-end, intelligent, and green industries is crucial for economic quality improvement, with significant growth in green product output, including a 19.3% increase in new energy vehicles and a 30.4% increase in lithium-ion batteries for vehicles in October [3] Group 2 - The potential for achieving annual economic and social development goals is supported by favorable conditions, including the release of demand potential and the steady expansion of market sales, with a 4.3% year-on-year increase in retail sales of consumer goods for the first ten months [3] - The service consumption sector is particularly vibrant, driven by the dual holiday effect of National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, indicating a significant release of service consumption demand [3] - The ongoing adjustment of China's economic structure is progressing steadily, with a focus on promoting technological and industrial innovation to optimize the economic structure and achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative growth [4]

Economic Overview - In October 2025, China's economic performance showed that supply outpaced demand, with industrial output and service production indices growing by 4.9% and 4.6% year-on-year, respectively, but slowing down by 1.6 and 1.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, while fixed asset investment saw a cumulative decline of 1.7%, reflecting a slowdown of 0.1 and 1.2 percentage points from the previous month[2] Economic Transition and Growth Sectors - The ongoing economic transition is supported by high-tech manufacturing and productive services, with high-tech manufacturing output increasing by 7.2% year-on-year, outpacing overall industrial growth[2] - Key sectors such as automotive manufacturing, transportation equipment, and electricity production saw industrial value-added growth rates of 11.8%, 14.9%, and 2.2%, respectively[2] Consumer and Service Sector Growth - Basic and some upgraded consumer goods experienced rapid growth, with retail sales of food and oil products rising by 9.1% and 23.2% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Service consumption emerged as a significant growth point, with tourism and transportation services maintaining over 10% growth in retail sales from January to October[2] Investment Trends - From January to October, fixed asset investments in information services, transportation equipment, and automotive manufacturing grew by 32.7%, 20.1%, and 17.5%, respectively, while real estate investment declined by 14.7%[7] - The overall investment environment remains cautious due to complex external conditions and fierce domestic competition, with a notable decline in real estate development investments impacting total investment figures[7] Employment Stability - The urban unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall employment stability[7]

Core Insights - The overall economic operation in October remained stable, with solid progress in transformation and upgrading, and new growth drivers continuing to strengthen [1] Economic Performance - In October, the industrial production remained stable, with the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 4.9% year-on-year [2] - The equipment manufacturing sector saw an 8% increase in added value, significantly outpacing the overall industrial growth [2] - Social retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year-on-year, with notable growth in communication equipment (23.2%) and cultural office supplies (13.5%) [2] - The consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 1.2% [2] High-Tech and Green Manufacturing - The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.2% year-on-year, continuing to outpace overall industrial growth [3] - The production of green products, such as new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries, grew by 19.3% and 30.4% respectively [3] New Growth Drivers - The digital economy and new industries are rapidly developing, with online retail of physical goods accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales from January to October [4] - Investment in high-tech sectors, including aerospace and information services, saw significant growth, with increases of 19.7% and 32.7% respectively [4] Manufacturing Sector Dynamics - The added value of equipment manufacturing increased by 9.5%, contributing 58.7% to the growth of industrial added value [5] - The digital economy is expanding, with the added value of digital industry manufacturing rising by 9.5% [5] Economic Resilience - The economy is characterized by a stable foundation, multiple advantages, strong resilience, and significant potential [6] - The GDP growth for the first three quarters was 5.2%, placing it among the top global economies [7] - The total import and export volume increased by 3.6% year-on-year from January to October [7] Innovation and Policy Support - The integration of technological and industrial innovation is accelerating, with new industries and growth drivers emerging [8] - Proactive macroeconomic policies and the construction of a unified national market are enhancing demand and production, stabilizing the economy [8]