Oil Price and Inventory - Brent and WTI crude oil futures average prices were $66.9 and $63.1 per barrel, respectively, with week-on-week changes of +$0.7 and -$0.2[2] - Total U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 579,000 barrels to 82.41 million barrels, while commercial crude oil inventory fell by 601,000 barrels to 42.068 million barrels[2] - U.S. crude oil production increased by 60,000 barrels per day to 13.38 million barrels per day[2] Oil Demand and Supply - U.S. refinery crude processing volume rose by 30,000 barrels per day to 17.21 million barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 96.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points[2] - U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 42,000 barrels per day to 650,000 barrels per day, while exports increased by 80,000 barrels per day to 437,000 barrels per day, resulting in a net import decrease of 122,000 barrels per day[2] Refined Products - Average prices for U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $89, $95, and $89 per barrel, with week-on-week changes of +$1.6, +$0.5, and -$5.1, respectively[2] - U.S. gasoline inventory decreased by 272,000 barrels to 22.357 million barrels, while diesel inventory increased by 234,000 barrels to 11.603 million barrels[2] Market Recommendations - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) for potential investment[3] - Risks include geopolitical factors, macroeconomic downturns, and changes in OPEC+ supply plans[3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report As of the week ending August 15, the national commercial crude oil inventory decreased more than expected, driven by the rebound in exports from the Gulf Coast. There were significant regional supply - demand differences, with the Cushing delivery point inventory rising for seven consecutive weeks, a sharp drop in the West Coast inventory, and a slight increase in the Midwest inventory. In refined oil products, gasoline inventory reached the lowest level since May, diesel inventory rose to a March high, and aviation kerosene demand was strong. The import - export structure was significantly adjusted, domestic crude oil production increased slightly but had limited long - term growth potential, and refinery processing volume generally remained high. In the derivatives market, inventory changes affected futures spreads and crack spreads [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Regional Differentiation in Crude Oil Inventory - The national commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6 million barrels, a week - on - week decline of 1.4%, mainly driven by the increase in exports from the Gulf Coast (PADD 3) to 4.38 million barrels per day, the highest since April [2]. - The Cushing delivery point inventory increased by 420,000 barrels to 23.47 million barrels, reaching the highest level since early June, narrowing the WTI near - month futures spread [2]. - The West Coast (PADD 5) inventory decreased by 4.89 million barrels to 44.73 million barrels due to the increase in refinery operating rate to 90.2%. The Midwest (PADD 2) inventory slightly increased by 1.74 million barrels because of the closure of the BP Whiting refinery caused by heavy rain [2]. II. Differentiated Trends in Refined Oil Inventory - Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.72 million barrels to 223.57 million barrels, the lowest since May, supported by the increase in exports to 1.02 million barrels per day. However, the implied demand dropped to 8.84 million barrels per day, indicating the end of the summer driving season [3]. - Diesel inventory increased by 2.34 million barrels to 116.03 million barrels, reaching the highest level since March, mainly due to the decrease in exports. Although the weekly demand climbed to 39.67 million barrels [3]. - Aviation kerosene demand remained strong, with a weekly consumption of 1.9 million barrels per day, reaching the peak in the same period since 2019, supported by the high - level TSA airport security checks [3]. - The continuous accumulation of Cushing inventory suppressed the WTI futures term structure, with the October/November contract spread narrowing to less than $0.2 per barrel. The increase in Gulf Coast exports widened the Brent - WTI spread to $4.5 per barrel, stimulating active arbitrage trading. The increase in diesel inventory weakened the support for crack spreads, while the strong demand for aviation kerosene maintained its crack spread at the annual high of $28 per barrel [3]. III. Significant Adjustment in Import - Export Structure - The net crude oil imports decreased by 36.4% to 2.13 million barrels per day, with imports decreasing by 420,000 barrels to 6.5 million barrels per day. Iraqi imports jumped 131% to 330,000 barrels per day, reflecting the diversification of refinery raw material selection under the background of OPEC+ production increase [4]. - The utilization rate of Gulf Coast infrastructure increased, driving crude oil exports to grow 22.2% to 4.37 million barrels per day, expanding for the fourth consecutive week and becoming the core driving force for inventory reduction [4]. IV. Production and Refinery Operation Dynamics - Domestic crude oil production increased slightly by 0.4% to 13.38 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since early July. However, the slowdown in drilling activities indicated limited long - term production growth potential [5]. - Refinery processing volume increased by 0.2% to 17.21 million barrels per day. The processing volume in the East Coast (PADD 1) increased by 4% to 830,000 barrels per day due to the restart of refineries, leading to a 1.3% decrease in the regional inventory. The national refinery capacity utilization rate remained at a high level of 96.6%, but the utilization rate in the Midwest (PADD 2) decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 100.8% and may face further pressure due to equipment failures [5].

Group 1: Report Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The EIA report for the week is relatively bullish. The decline in inventory is due to the demand side, with overseas exports rebounding and refineries maintaining high operating rates, which may slow down the seasonal decline in demand. The structural issues in the diesel market are worth attention, as the demand for diesel will seasonally strengthen with the start of the autumn harvest while the distillate inventory is relatively low, which may make the previously slowing distillate cracking recover and drive refinery demand [8]. Group 3: Summary of Key Data - As of August 15, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6014 thousand barrels to 420684 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1800 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 419 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 223 thousand barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 2720 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900 thousand barrels, while distillate inventories increased by 2343 thousand barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 900 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 1218 thousand barrels per day to 2125 thousand barrels per day, and the single - week export volume reached 4372 thousand barrels per day, a new high since April [3][4]. - The refinery operating rate increased by 0.2% to 96.6% [4]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand decreased by 66 thousand barrels per day to 21093 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand decreased by 31.25 thousand barrels per day to 9008.5 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 156 thousand barrels per day to 3748.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 54.25 thousand barrels per day to 1881.5 thousand barrels per day [3]. Group 4: Market Analysis - The significant decline in U.S. commercial crude oil inventories last week was due to a sharp drop in net imports caused by a surge in exports, indicating an improvement in previously weak overseas demand, and the high - level refinery operating rate [4]. - Gasoline demand remains lower than last year and the same period in previous years, suggesting insufficient consumer ability or willingness. Distillate demand has rebounded significantly, and its inventory is still at a low level. As autumn approaches, the market will focus more on distillates [7].

Market Overview - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's liquefied gas futures opened at 4370 CNY/ton and reached a high of 4409 CNY/ton, with a current price of 4387 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.67% increase [1] - On August 20, liquefied gas futures had an opening price of 4295 CNY/ton, a closing price of 4354 CNY/ton, and a trading volume of 98,400 contracts [2] Market News - As of August 20, the number of liquefied petroleum gas futures warehouse receipts was 13,298 contracts, which is an increase of 20 contracts compared to the previous trading day [2] Institutional Insights - Dongwu Futures noted that while overseas market exports remain loose, the recovery in East Asian chemical procurement provides support, leading to price stabilization. The overall import recovery in early August suggests potential for further price adjustments due to refinery gas costs and crude oil influences [3] - Ruida Futures highlighted a significant unexpected drop in U.S. crude oil inventories, indicating short-term tightness. However, expectations of OPEC+ production increases and geopolitical easing in regions like Gaza and Ukraine continue to suppress oil prices, maintaining a loose supply-demand balance. Domestic prices for both domestic and imported gas are rising, but downstream trading activity is declining due to price increases, although importers are showing increased willingness to arbitrage [3]

本轮油价会跌多少，让我们持续关注~ 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现， 美原油：下跌0.94%，收于61.99美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌0.92%，收于65.92美元/桶。今日国际油价震荡 中，截至发稿，美原油暂报61.94美元/桶，跌幅0.10%。 昨日油价下跌主要还是地缘政治局势的缓和，市场对原油供应中断的预期缓解。外加OPEC+的9月增产政策，进一步压制油价。 不过需注意的是，今早公布的美国API原油库存减少了约240万桶，市场此前预期是减少120万桶。直接限制了油价的跌幅，而晚间还有美 国EIA原油库存，如果也是超预期减少，预计会提振晚间油价。 另外，欧盟方面称将于9月对俄罗斯进行新一轮制裁，此前的制裁方案就是重点针对俄罗斯能源方面的收入，预计这一轮也不会有过多例 外。 总的来说，市场正等待晚间的数据指引，今晚还有欧元区的通胀数据以及美联储会议纪要，晚间油价震荡空间相当的大。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第6个工作日，当前预计油价下跌235元/吨，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅增加5元/吨，折合每升油价下跌0.18- 0.21元，远超下调红线，油价有下跌希望。 注意，油价下跌中 注意，油价调整时间已过半，就目前这个油价 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the varieties in the report are rated as "Oscillating", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][3][5][7][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices continued to decline due to geopolitical factors and inventory data. The current demand lacks highlights, and the supply is expected to increase, so the oil price will continue to operate weakly [1][3] - The low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, while the high - sulfur market may be supported by reduced supply starting from September [3] - The asphalt market is expected to see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing in August, and the price will fluctuate within a range [3] - The polyester market has a stable supply - demand situation, and the prices of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate with the oil price [5] - The rubber market is affected by factors such as rainfall, raw material prices, and tire demand, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - The methanol market will maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7] - The polyolefin market will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and demand, and the price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - The polyvinyl chloride market has high - level supply and improving demand, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, the price of WTI September contract dropped by $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%. The Brent October contract fell by $0.81 to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. SC2510 closed at 480.9 yuan per barrel, down 4.2 yuan or 0.87%. Geopolitical factors and inventory data affected the price. The current demand is weak, and the supply is expected to rise, so the price will oscillate [1][3] - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2509) fell 0.26% to 2,698 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2510) fell 0.12% to 3,454 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market is under pressure from supply, while the high - sulfur market may be supported in September. The price will oscillate [3] - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main contract of asphalt (BU2509) rose 0.14% to 3,455 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to increase in the second half of August, and the demand is expected to recover. The price will oscillate [3] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,734 yuan per ton, down 0.25%. EG2509 closed at 4,424 yuan per ton, up 1.79%. PX supply and demand continued to recover, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are expected to oscillate [5] - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main contract of natural rubber (RU2601) rose 55 yuan to 15,875 yuan per ton. The production and demand situation affected the price, and the short - term price will oscillate [5] - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level but will gradually recover. The port inventory will increase in the short term, and the price will oscillate [7] - **Polyolefin**: The subsequent production will remain high, and the demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. The price will oscillate narrowly [7][8] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually improving. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy - chemical varieties on August 19, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9] 3.3 Market News - The American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed that in the week of August 15, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 2.417 million barrels, more than the analyst's expectation [12] - The Whiting refinery of BP in the United States was affected by floods caused by a thunderstorm, but the specific impact on production was not specified [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [14][16][18] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32][34][38] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical varieties, like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [47][49][52] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal and external spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread [63][66][68] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of some varieties, such as ethylene - made ethylene glycol and PP [71] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with rich experience and professional titles in the energy - chemical research field [78][79][80][81]

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Weekly Report: Increase in US Crude Oil Inventory and Decline in International Oil Prices [1] - Report Date: August 17, 2025 [1] - Chief Analyst: Chen Shuxian [1] - Analyst: Zhou Shaowen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the weekly average prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $66.2/$63.3 per barrel, down $1.0/$1.4 per barrel from last week. The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels, with a week-on-week increase of 3.26/3.04/0.23/0.05 million barrels respectively. The US crude oil production was 13.33 million barrels per day, up 40,000 barrels per day week-on-week. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 412, an increase of 1 from the previous week. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 163, an increase of 4 from the previous week. The US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.18 million barrels per day, up 60,000 barrels per day week-on-week, and the US refinery crude oil operating rate was 96.4%, down 0.5 pct week-on-week [2]. - The weekly average prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $87/$95/$90 per barrel, down $0.3/$0.9/$4.1 per barrel week-on-week. The spreads with crude oil were $21/$29/$24 per barrel, up $1.1/$0.4/ -$2.7 per barrel week-on-week. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.1/0.4 billion barrels, with a week-on-week change of -0.79/+0.71/ -0.62 million barrels respectively. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.81/5.14/1.97 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of +10,000/+30,000/ -20,000 barrels per day respectively. The US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.00/3.70/1.83 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of -40,000/ -20,000/+120,000 barrels per day respectively. The net exports of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene were 0.58/1.33/0.23 million barrels per day, with a week-on-week change of -0.25/ -0.13/+0.09 million barrels per day respectively [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corporation (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China National Petroleum Corporation Engineering Co., Ltd. (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical Engineering Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3] Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Upstream Key Company Price Changes: Among the upstream key companies, the Hong Kong - listed shares of some companies such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation and PetroChina Company Limited showed an upward trend in the near - week, near - month, and near - three - month periods, while some A - shares showed a downward trend [9] - Key Company Valuations: The report provides the total market capitalization,归母净利润, PE, and PB of key companies from 2024A to 2027E [9] - Crude Oil Sector: The weekly average prices of Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO crude oils were $66.2, $63.3, $61.9, and $62.8 per barrel respectively, all showing a week - on - week decline. The US dollar index was 97.8, down 1.0 week - on - week. The LME copper spot price was $9,165.0 per ton, down $411.5 week - on - week [9] - Inventory Sector: The US total crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory all increased week - on - week [9] - Production Sector: The US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets all increased week - on - week [9] - Refinery Sector: The US refinery crude oil processing volume increased week - on - week, while the operating rate decreased. The operating rates of Chinese local refineries and major refineries showed different trends [9] - Import and Export Sector: The US crude oil net imports increased week - on - week [9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review - Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance: No specific performance data provided, only the topic is mentioned [14] - Sector Listed Company Performance: The report lists the latest prices, total market capitalizations, and price changes in different time periods of multiple listed companies in the petroleum and petrochemical sector, as well as their valuations [26][28] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking - Crude Oil Price: It involves the price and spread relationships between different types of crude oils such as Brent, WTI, Russian Urals, and Russian ESPO, as well as the relationships between the US dollar index, LME copper price, and WTI crude oil price [32][41][42] - Crude Oil Inventory: It shows the historical data and trends of the US commercial crude oil inventory, total crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory, as well as their correlations with oil prices [49][54][63] - Crude Oil Supply: The US crude oil production, the number of crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets are tracked [68] - Crude Oil Demand: The US refinery crude oil processing volume, operating rate, and the operating rates of Chinese local and major refineries are presented [76][79][83] - Crude Oil Import and Export: The US crude oil import, export, and net import volumes are tracked [87][91] 4. Refined Oil Product Sector Data Tracking - Refined Oil Product Price: When the international crude oil price is above $80 per barrel, the increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices slows down. The report also shows the price and spread relationships between crude oil and refined oil products in different regions such as China, the US, Europe, and Singapore [97][124][130] - Refined Oil Product Inventory: The inventories of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US and Singapore are tracked, along with their week - on - week and year - on - year changes [138][144][149] - Refined Oil Product Supply: The productions of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are presented [157][158] - Refined Oil Product Demand: The consumptions of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are tracked, along with the number of US airport passenger security checks [161][162] - Refined Oil Product Import and Export: The import, export, and net export volumes of gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene in the US are tracked [175][179][180] 5. Oilfield Service Sector Data Tracking - The report provides the weekly average, monthly average, quarterly average, and year - to - date average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms [10]

Group 1: Report Core View - In the week ending August 8, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.036 million barrels, mainly driven by a 699,000 - barrel - per - day increase in net crude oil imports. Weekly crude oil production increased by 43,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased from 96.9% to 96.4%, but refinery - sector demand remained relatively strong. Gasoline inventories declined seasonally, diesel inventories continued to rise from the bottom, and the total inventories of other petroleum products increased seasonally. The total inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased, and the weekly data was bearish [4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory change: increased by 3.036 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 3.029 million barrels previously [6]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory change: increased by 445,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 453,000 barrels previously [6]. - US strategic petroleum inventory change: increased by 226,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 235,000 barrels previously [6]. - US gasoline inventory change: decreased by 792,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.323 million barrels previously [6]. - US diesel inventory change: increased by 714,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 565,000 barrels previously [6]. - US jet fuel inventory change: decreased by 620,000 barrels, compared with an increase of 970,000 barrels previously [6]. - US fuel oil inventory change: decreased by 66,000 barrels, compared with a decrease of 239,000 barrels previously [6]. - US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR): increased by 7.522 million barrels, compared with an increase of 2.054 million barrels previously [6]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production: 13.327 million barrels per day, compared with 13.284 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US refined product apparent demand: 21.357 million barrels per day, compared with 20.122 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US gasoline apparent demand: 9 million barrels per day, compared with 9.04 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US diesel apparent demand: 3.701 million barrels per day, compared with 3.72 million barrels per day previously [6]. Import and Export Data - US crude oil imports: 6.92 million barrels per day, compared with 5.962 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US crude oil exports: 3.577 million barrels per day, compared with 3.318 million barrels per day previously [6]. Refinery Data - US refinery crude oil processing volume: 17.18 million barrels per day, compared with 17.124 million barrels per day previously [6]. - US refinery utilization rate: 96.4%, compared with 96.9% previously [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is slightly bearish for the oil market. The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories, combined with the recent significant increases in global crude oil supply expectations in the EIA and IEA monthly reports, exerts downward pressure on oil prices in the medium to long term [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were 426,698 thousand barrels, a week-on-week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventories increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventories increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3]. - Gasoline inventories decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3]. - U.S. crude oil production increased by 43 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, net imports increased by 699 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, and processing volume increased by 56 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day [3]. - The four - week smoothed U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand increased by 543.25 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, gasoline apparent demand increased by 127.75 thousand barrels per day to 9,039.75 thousand barrels per day, distillate apparent demand increased by 69.5 thousand barrels per day to 3,592.25 thousand barrels per day, and jet fuel apparent demand increased by 50.5 thousand barrels per day to 1,827.25 thousand barrels per day [3]. Report Review - Last week, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased while the downstream refinery utilization rate remained high, dropping 0.5% to 96.4%. The increase in inventories was mainly due to increased imports and decreased exports of U.S. crude oil. Since the end of June, U.S. crude oil exports have been slightly lower than before, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4]. - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but its overall performance during this year's driving peak season has been poor, often falling below 9 million barrels per day. As the peak travel season is in its later stage, the market boost is limited. Distillate demand remains stable, and inventories are still at a low level. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - The EIA weekly report shows that commercial crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [1][2] - The report is slightly bearish for the oil market due to the unexpected increase in crude oil inventories and the overall neutral performance of refined oil inventories [6] Group 2: Main Data - As of August 8, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 426,698 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 3,036 thousand barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 275 thousand barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 45 thousand barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 226 thousand barrels [2][3] - Gasoline inventory decreased by 792 thousand barrels, in line with the expected decrease of 700 thousand barrels. Distillate inventory increased by 714 thousand barrels, in line with the expected increase of 700 thousand barrels [2][3] - U.S. crude oil production increased from 13,284 thousand barrels per day to 13,327 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 43 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports increased from 2,644 thousand barrels per day to 3,343 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 699 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume increased from 17,124 thousand barrels per day to 17,180 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 56 thousand barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) increased from 20,615.75 thousand barrels per day to 21,159 thousand barrels per day, an increase of 543.25 thousand barrels per day [3] Group 3: Report Analysis - The increase in inventory is mainly due to increased U.S. crude oil imports and decreased exports, suggesting poor overseas demand or the impact of tariffs [4] - Gasoline demand has rebounded slightly, but overall performance during the driving peak season this year has been poor. The driving peak season is in the later stage, so the market boost is limited [8] - Distillate demand is stable, and inventory remains low. As the weather turns to autumn and the driving peak season enters the second half, the market will focus on distillates [8] - The continuous low performance of U.S. crude oil exports for more than a month implies weak overseas demand, intense overseas market competition, or the impact of tariffs, which will put pressure on oil prices in the medium - to - long term [6] - The recent EIA and IEA monthly reports have significantly increased the global crude oil supply forecast, which has put some pressure on oil prices [6]