Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices showed resilience, with Brent and WTI prices reaching $70.36 and $68.45 per barrel respectively as of July 11, 2025, supported by various factors including OPEC+ production increases and a decrease in refined oil inventories [2][8] - The report highlights a significant increase in oil prices, with Brent crude futures rising by $2.06 per barrel (+3.02%) and WTI crude futures increasing by $1.45 per barrel (+2.16%) in the week ending July 11, 2025 [28] - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production to 13.385 million barrels per day, a reduction of 48,000 barrels per day from the previous week [48] - The report identifies key companies in the sector, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of July 11, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $70.36 per barrel, up $2.06 (+3.02%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $68.45 per barrel, up $1.45 (+2.16%) [28][21] - The report indicates that the increase in oil prices is attributed to OPEC+ production adjustments and geopolitical factors affecting supply and demand [2][8] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms increased to 385, with a net addition of 5 platforms, while the number of floating drilling platforms remained stable at 134 [33] U.S. Crude Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.385 million barrels per day, with active drilling rigs dropping to 424 [48][39] - The report notes an increase in the number of pressure pumping fleets to 180, indicating some activity in the sector despite the overall production decline [48] U.S. Crude Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing decreased to 17.006 million barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 94.70%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous week [59] U.S. Crude Oil Inventory - As of July 4, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories rose to 829 million barrels, an increase of 7.308 million barrels (+0.89%) from the previous week [68] Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $101.69, $91.13, and $94.08 per barrel respectively, with respective increases of $2.12, $2.86, and $1.96 [89][93]

Report Information - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Products Weekly - Crude Oil [2] - Researcher: Liu Chenrui [2] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - Absolute low inventory and peak season support the downside of oil prices. There is a consensus on the weakening of the medium - term fundamentals, but it is necessary to observe the actual production increase of OPEC and guard against the time point of the outbreak of US trade negotiation risks [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Price and Financial Data - **Crude Oil Price**: The report presents the price trends of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil over a long - term period, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [11][12]. - **CFTC Positioning Data**: It shows the historical data of WTI futures and options management fund positions, including long, short, and net positions, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [13][14][15]. 2. Supply - **US Crude Oil Supply**: US production is 1338.5 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.36% and a同比 change of 0.64%. The net import volume of US crude oil is 325.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 29.43% and a同比 change of 17.93%. The report also shows the trends of US domestic crude oil production, net import volume, and rig platform numbers [8][18][19]. - **OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq from 2021 - 2025 [21][22]. - **Non - OPEC Crude Oil Supply**: It shows the production trends of Russia, Canada, and Brazil from 2023 - 2025 [23][24]. 3. Demand - **US Petroleum Demand**: US refinery processing volume is 1700.6 barrels per day, with a环比 change of - 0.58% and a同比 change of - 0.60%. The US refinery operating rate is 94.7%, with a环比 change of - 0.2 pts and a同比 change of - 0.7 pts. The report also shows the seasonal trends of US refinery operating rate, crude oil processing volume, gasoline and diesel apparent demand [8][28][29]. - **Global Refinery Maintenance Seasonality**: It shows the seasonal trends of global, North American, and Northwest European CDU maintenance volumes [31][32][34]. - **Domestic Crude Oil Demand**: It shows the seasonal trends of China's crude oil monthly import volume, daily processing volume, and the operating rates of major refineries and Shandong local refineries [35][36]. 4. Inventory - **Global Crude Oil Supply - Demand Forecast**: The July EIA monthly report shows that the annual inventory accumulation rate in 2025 is 107 barrels per day, and provides the supply - demand data for each quarter of 2025 [40]. - **US Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of various US petroleum inventories, including total inventory, refined oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and Gulf of Mexico crude oil inventory [42][44][45]. - **US Refined Oil Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories [48][49][51]. - **China's Crude Oil Inventory and Global Floating Storage**: It shows the trends of INE crude oil inventory, global crude oil floating storage, global water - borne crude oil, and global in - transit crude oil [52][53]. - **Other Regions' Petroleum Inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of ARA European crude oil inventory, Northwest European refined oil inventory, and Singapore refined oil inventory [54][55]. 5. Spreads and Premiums - **Global Regional Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of crack spreads in the US Gulf, DTD trans - Atlantic, Dubai, and Minas [59][60]. - **Refined Oil Crack Spreads**: It shows the seasonal trends of RBOB - WTI, HO - WTI, Gasoline - Dubai (SING), and Gasoil - Dubai (SING) [62][63]. - **Futures Calendar Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI and Brent futures [64][65]. - **Regional Spreads**: It shows the spreads of WTI - Brent, SC - Brent, EFS, and SC - WTI [66][67]. - **Freight Rates**: It shows the freight rates from the Arabian Gulf to Ningbo, China, and from Arabia to Singapore and the Arabian Gulf to Japan [68][69]. - **Saudi OSP**: It shows the OSPs of Saudi medium, heavy, and light crude oils exported to different regions [70][71]. - **Different Oil Grade Premiums**: It shows the premiums of Midland WTI, WCS - WTI, and Urals - Dated Brent [73][74][75].

Group 1 - The market is experiencing a strengthening dollar index supported by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with most officials favoring interest rate cuts this year, although rates remain unchanged for now [2] - The extension of tariff implementation to August 1 has led to a generally positive market outlook, with expectations for negotiations [2] - The technical analysis indicates a consolidation pattern in gold, with successful trades noted at specific price points [2] Group 2 - U.S. crude oil inventories have significantly increased, offsetting seasonal demand, alongside expectations of increased production from OPEC+ [4] - Recent attacks in the Red Sea have not sustained market speculation, leading to a technical retreat in oil prices [4] - The prevailing supply-demand imbalance suggests a continuation of a bearish outlook for oil, with recommendations to maintain a short position on rebounds [4] Group 3 - For gold, a buying opportunity is suggested around 3322/4 with a target of 3340/50 [5] - For oil, a selling opportunity is indicated around 67.6 with a target of 66/65 [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The EIA weekly report is relatively positive. Although the most important commercial crude oil inventory unexpectedly increased significantly, there was a one - time adjustment factor from EIA. The gasoline apparent consumption during the driving peak season remains strong, and the distillate oil inventory is continuously decreasing, which is expected to support refineries to maintain high operating rates and drive crude oil demand. After the report was released, oil prices rebounded slightly but then narrowed the gains, with little overall change [7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Data Overview - As of July 4, US commercial crude oil total inventory was 426.021 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 7.07 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of 2.1 million barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 464,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 238,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.658 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.5 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 825,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 300,000 barrels [2] - From June 27 to July 4, US crude oil production decreased by 48,000 barrels per day to 13.385 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 1.358 million barrels per day to 3.256 million barrels per day; processing volume decreased by 99,000 barrels per day to 17.006 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for US crude oil increased by 275,250 barrels per day to 20.5635 million barrels per day [3] Report Review - Last week, the significant increase in US commercial crude oil inventory was not related to imports, exports, or the operating rate. The refinery operating rate dropped slightly by 0.2% to 94.7%, still at a high level in the same period, and net imports decreased significantly. The large inventory increase was mainly due to a data adjustment of 1.8 million barrels per day to reflect "unaccounted - for crude oil", which can be considered a one - time event [4] Product Oil Situation - Gasoline demand remained at a high level, causing gasoline inventory to decline more than expected despite the high refinery operating rate. Since the data was as of July 4 (US Independence Day, Friday), and the Independence Day long weekend is often the peak of the US driving season, the strong gasoline demand is likely to continue in next week's report. Distillate oil inventory is also significantly lower than in previous years, and the low inventory is conducive to supporting cracking and helping refineries maintain high operating rates [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - PP and PE both show a supply contraction trend. PP's maintenance losses continue to increase, PE's domestic maintenance has peaked, and PE's import is expected to be low. The weighted valuation has recovered significantly, and the July balance sheet shows a de - stocking expectation, but there is still overall pressure. Short - term attention can be paid to the support brought by de - stocking. For PP, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [1]. Crude Oil Industry - Oil prices are oscillating strongly, mainly due to a large increase in US crude oil inventories and new sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Although the increase in US EIA inventory data is bearish, it is temporarily overshadowed by geopolitical risks and peak - season demand. Geopolitical risks have limited continuity in disturbing the market, and oil prices are likely to enter a wide - range oscillation after rising. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy [6]. Methanol Industry - The inland methanol market is supported by centralized maintenance in July, with limited short - term downside. The port market faces dual pressures: the resumption of Iranian plants and planned maintenance of coastal MTO units, which is expected to lead to a slight inventory build - up in July and stronger price suppression [31]. Urea Industry - The core drivers of the fundamentals and macro - news are the market confidence boost from the Indian tender price. Although there is no follow - up substantial news on exports, the market has short - term expectations of export benefits. The short - term market shows an oscillating upward trend, but the sustainability of demand needs to be observed, and long positions should not be overly chased [36]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Under the influence of PXN repair, domestic plant maintenance delays, and overseas supply recovery, PX is under pressure, but considering new PTA plant commissioning and other factors, the supply - demand is still expected to be tight. Short - term long positions can be considered around 6600 for PX09. - **PTA**: The supply - demand is expected to weaken, but cost support is strong. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900, and short - term long positions can be considered below 4700. - **MEG**: Supply is increasing, and demand is weakening. It is expected to be in balance in July and build up inventory from August to September. Short - term attention should be paid to the 4400 resistance level for EG09. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the absolute price fluctuates with raw materials. It is recommended to expand the processing margin when it is low. - **Bottle - chip**: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is gradually recovering. The absolute price follows the cost. [41] Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Pure Benzene**: It has rebounded recently, supported by crude oil and styrene prices. However, due to high import expectations and high port inventories, its upward potential is limited. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and adopt a reverse spread strategy for the monthly spread. - **Styrene**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to weaken, with increasing port inventories. Although the absolute price is supported by strong oil prices and a favorable commodity atmosphere, the increase is limited. Short positions can be considered around 7500 for EB08 [45]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry Futures Prices - L2601 closed at 7254, up 29 (0.40%); L2509 at 7278, up 33 (0.46%); PP2601 at 7034, up 28 (0.40%); PP2509 at 7078, up 33 (0.47%) [1]. Spreads - L2509 - 2601 spread increased by 4 (20.00%); PP2509 - 2601 spread increased by 5 (12.82%) [1]. Spot Prices - East China PP wire drawing spot was 7100, up 10 (0.14%); North China LDPE film material spot was 7170, unchanged [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.47 million tons (12.48%); PE social inventory increased by 1.04 million tons (2.05%). PP enterprise inventory increased by 1.11 million tons (1.95%); PP trader inventory increased by 0.48 million tons (3.21%) [1]. Crude Oil Industry Oil Prices and Spreads - Brent crude was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.06%); WTI was at $68.15, down $0.23 (- 0.34%). Brent - WTI spread increased by $0.23 (12.71%) [6]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - NYM RBOB was at 219.05 cents/gallon, up 0.26 cents (0.12%); NYM ULSD was at 241.14 cents/gallon, up 0.22 cents (0.09%) [6]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - US gasoline crack spread was at $23.85, up $0.34 (1.44%); European gasoline crack spread was unchanged at $14.13 [6]. Methanol Industry Prices and Spreads - MA2601 closed at 2434, up 14 (0.58%); MA2509 at 2372, down 1 (- 0.04%). MA91 spread decreased by 15 (31.91%) [31]. Inventory - Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.5% (1.31%); methanol port inventory increased by 4.5 million tons (6.72%); methanol social inventory increased by 5.0% (4.86%) [31]. Operating Rates - Domestic upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 2.5% (- 3.19%); overseas upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 10.7% (20.19%) [31]. Urea Industry Futures Prices and Spreads - 01 contract closed at 1736, up 13 (0.75%); 05 contract at 1736, up 9 (0.52%); 09 contract at 1770, up 7 (0.40%) [33]. Spot Prices - Shandong (small - grain) urea was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 20 (1.10%); Henan (small - grain) was at 1840 yuan/ton, up 30 (1.66%) [37]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 0.20 million tons (1.03%); urea production plant operating rate increased by 0.86% (1.03%) [37]. Polyester Industry Chain Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 6700 yuan/ton, down 60 (- 0.9%); FDY150/96 price was 6975 yuan/ton, unchanged [41]. PX - related - CFR China PX was at $10610/ton, unchanged; PX spot price (in RMB) decreased by 0.8% [41]. PTA - related - PTA East China spot price was 4750 yuan/ton, down 50 (- 1.0%); TA2509 closed at 4718 yuan/ton, up 0.2% [41]. MEG - related - MEG port inventory was 58.0 million tons, down 3.5 million tons (6.4%); MEG to - arrive expectation was 9.6 million tons, up 8 [41]. Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate increased by 1.1% (1.5%); China PX operating rate increased by 3.3% [41]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry Upstream Prices and Spreads - Brent crude (September) was at $70.19, up $0.04 (0.1%); CFR Japan naphtha was at $598/ton, up 11 (1.9%) [45]. Styrene - related - Styrene East China spot was 7640 yuan/ton, up 60 (0.8%); EB2508 closed at 7350 yuan/ton, up 74 (1.0%) [45]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene East China port inventory was 17.50 million tons, up 1.10 (6.7%); styrene East China port inventory was 13.30 million tons, up 3.67 (38.1%) [45].

甲信期货 TIC Futures EIA周度数据:原油库存回升,产量下降 | 2025年7月9日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 信息仅 | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 F03141405 | 关注、 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | 险,投 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和 信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会因为 关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风 险,投资需谨慎。 美国7月4日当周商业原油库存增加707万桶，延续了上期的底部回升态势,开工率由94.9%降至94.7%, 原油加工量下降9.9万桶/目,但仍处近五年同期高位。单周原油产量下降4.8万桶/日,为5月9日当周以来最 低,关注后期产量回落的持续性。石油产品方面,汽油库存高位回落,柴油库存延续逆季节性走低,成品油 表观需求走高,原油与石油产品总库存季节性累积仍未停止,单周数据指向有限。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+改变产量政策。 美国汽油表观需求(万桶/日) ...

美国一周原油库存增加707.0万桶，市场预估为减少207.1万桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Daily News - US President Trump stated on social media that tariffs would start on August 1, 2025, and the date would not change. He might send a tax - levying letter to the EU in the next two days. At a cabinet meeting, Trump said he was still planning to impose tariffs on specific industries including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and metals, with a 50% tariff on copper and up to 200% on pharmaceuticals [3]. - The arrival of crude oil at Shandong refineries continued to decline but remained higher than the same period last year. - Sources said that OPEC+ might approve another production increase of about 550,000 barrels per day in September at its August 3 meeting [3]. - The change in API crude oil inventories in the US for the week ending July 4 was 7.128 million barrels, the largest increase since the week of February 7, 2025 [3]. b. Regional Fundamentals - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US crude oil exports decreased by 1.965 million barrels per day to 2.305 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 200 barrels to 13.433 million barrels per day [4]. - EIA report: Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.845 million barrels to 419 million barrels, a 0.93% increase [4]. - EIA report: The four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.288 million barrels per day, a 1.12% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 239,000 barrels to 402.8 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4]. - EIA report: In the week of June 27, US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 6.919 million barrels per day, an increase of 975,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - This week, the operating rate of major refineries increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel production from major refineries increased, while that from independent refineries decreased. The sales - to - production ratios of gasoline and diesel at local refineries both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories accumulated this week. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded month - on - month, and the comprehensive profit of local refineries improved month - on - month [4]. c. Weekly Viewpoints - This week, oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the monthly spread also oscillated. WTI spot remained tight. Trump's "Big and Beautiful Act" ended support for solar and wind energy on July 4, creating a favorable environment for traditional energy. Over the weekend, OPEC+ agreed to increase daily production by 548,000 barrels in August to expand market share, and eight member countries had already increased production by 1.37 million barrels per day from April to July. Trump indicated that a Gaza agreement might be reached next week and planned to conduct nuclear negotiations with Iran. The US Treasury imposed sanctions on relevant Iraqi enterprises for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories remained flat this week. US commercial crude oil inventories started to accumulate, while Cushing inventories decreased. Gasoline inventories increased, and diesel inventories decreased. The number of US oil rigs as of July 4 declined rapidly, and the US fundamentals remained relatively tight. This week, global refinery profits rebounded, and it is the peak season for refinery operations. The monthly spread of crude oil is expected to remain in high - level oscillations. The WTI and Brent markets are stronger than the Dubai market, showing a market divergence. The absolute price is under downward pressure due to OPEC's unexpected production increase and Trump's policies [5].

相关链接 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年7月9日 周三 ① 04:30 美国至7月4日当周API原油库存 ② 09:30 中国6月CPI年率 ③ 10:00 新西兰联储公布利率决议 ④ 11:00 新西兰联储主席奥尔召开发布会 ⑤ 22:00 美国5月批发销售月率 ⑥ 22:30 美国至7月4日当周EIA原油库存 ⑦ 22:30 美国至7月4日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑧ 22:30 美国至7月4日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑨ 次日01:00 美国至7月9日10年期国债竞拍-得标利率 ⑩ 次日01:00 美国至7月9日10年期国债竞拍-投标倍数 ⑪ 次日02:00 美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 ...

Economic Events and Data Summary - Japan's May trade balance will be released at 07:50 [1] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 12:30 [1] - RBA Governor Philip Lowe will hold a press conference at 13:30 [1] - Germany's seasonally adjusted trade balance for May will be published at 14:00 [1] - France's May trade balance will be available at 14:45 [1] - The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for June in the U.S. will be released at 18:00 [1] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for June will be published at 23:00 [1] - The EIA will release its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report at 00:00 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 4 will be available at 04:30 the next day [1]