2025-12-22 朗 货 有 限 公 司 浮仓库存走高，陆地库存回落 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月21日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点回落,但浮仓库存延续攀升。陆上库存分区域看,中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第4周回升,印度、俄罗斯、中东、欧洲库存均回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 千種 千瓶 3800000 270000 2400000 3700000 210000 3600000 1800000 150000 35000000 120000 3400000 90000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原油厂 E 4:全球陆如+海上(含在该)康波 - 2023 - 2022 - 202 ...

2025-12-22 朗 货 有 限 公 司 浮仓库存走高，陆地库存回落 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源: Kpler 中信期货研究所 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月21日当周，全球原油陆上库存以及全口径（含在途）库存自高点回落,但浮仓库存延续攀升。陆上库存分区域看,中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第4周回升,印度、俄罗斯、中东、欧洲库存均回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2021 千種 千瓶 3800000 270000 2400000 3700000 210000 3600000 1800000 150000 35000000 120000 3400000 90000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原油厂 E 4:全球陆如+海上(含在该)康波 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil processing industry Core Insights - The average global crude oil inventory change for 2026 is projected to be +204.90 thousand barrels per day according to IEA, EIA, and OPEC [2] - For Q4 2025, the average inventory change is expected to be +162.53 thousand barrels per day, showing a revision from previous forecasts [2] - Global crude oil supply for 2025 is forecasted at 10617.36, 10607.84, and 10470.71 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a year-on-year increase [2] - The global crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 10392.25, 10393.68, and 10513.66 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, reflecting a modest increase from 2024 [2] Summary by Sections Oil Supply - IEA, EIA, and OPEC predict global crude oil supply for 2026 to be 10865.02, 10742.59, and 10654.18 thousand barrels per day respectively, with increases from 2025 [2][35] - The Q4 2025 supply increase is projected at +414.30, +385.36, and +254.12 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [35] Oil Demand - The demand for 2026 is forecasted at 10478.51, 10516.87, and 10651.70 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, indicating a growth from 2025 [2][35] - The demand increase for Q4 2025 is expected to be +108.72, +130.72, and +152.22 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively [4] Oil Prices - As of December 18, 2025, Brent crude, WTI, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices are reported at 59.82, 56.00, 47.94, and 65.49 USD per barrel respectively, with significant declines observed over the year [9][10] - Year-to-date price changes show Brent down by -21.22%, WTI by -23.42%, and Russian ESPO by -33.37% [9][10] Oil Inventory - The global crude oil inventory change for 2025 is projected at +225.11, +214.16, and -42.95 thousand barrels per day by IEA, EIA, and OPEC respectively, with an average increase of +132.11 thousand barrels per day [26] - The U.S. total crude oil inventory as of December 12, 2025, stands at 83658.8 thousand barrels, reflecting a slight increase [19][20]

原油成品油早报 ·市场消息：美国允许部分与伊朗相关的交易持续至1月18日 ·JODI：沙特10月原油出口量增加至710万桶/日 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/19 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | 2025/12/12 | 57.44 | 61.12 | 62.06 | 0.61 | 0.28 | -3.68 | 0.35 | 175.21 | 12.47 | 219.80 | 31.20 | | 2025/12/15 | 56.82 | 60.56 | 61.70 | 0.69 | 0.26 | -3.74 | 0.54 | 173.23 | 12.20 ...

EIA周度数据:炼厂高开工,汽柴再累库 | 2025年12月18日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | | 发类可【2012】669号 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | F03141405 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 有风险, 投资需谨慎。 美国12月12日当周商业原油库存减少127.4万桶,虽原油加工量增加12.8万桶/日,原油净出口 增加71.9万桶/日均利于加速去库,但实际去库幅度与上期数据相差不大。炼厂开工率继续攀升至 94.8%,为同期绝对高位,汽柴油库存延续累积,原油与石油产品总库存处同期高位。总体来看, 单周数据对价格指向有限,持续利空汽柴油裂解价差。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 | 单位:万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存变动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price is expected to decrease by 155 yuan/ton, translating to a reduction of 0.12-0.14 yuan per liter, indicating a significant drop in oil prices [1] Group 1: Oil Price Trends - The anticipated oil price drop has increased by 40 yuan/ton compared to yesterday, exceeding the downward threshold [1] - International oil prices have experienced four consecutive declines, with the potential for the current round of price drops to reach 200 yuan/ton if the trend continues [3] - Recent market performance shows that U.S. crude oil fell by 2.57% to $55.07 per barrel, while Brent crude also dropped by 2.57% to $58.82 per barrel [3] Group 2: Inventory and Economic Indicators - The latest U.S. API crude oil inventory report indicated a decrease of 9.322 million barrels, significantly higher than the expected reduction of 2.197 million barrels [3] - Gasoline inventories increased by 483.5 thousand barrels, surpassing the expected increase of 210 thousand barrels, highlighting weak demand signals [3] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for November slightly exceeded market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to the highest level since September 2021, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [3] Group 3: Regional Fuel Prices - The upcoming oil price adjustment is scheduled for December 22 at 24:00, with specific regional prices for various fuel types provided [4][5][6]

中 信 期 货 有 限 公 司 陆地及浮仓库存快速攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 Futures Company Limited 研究员: 李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 12月14日当周，全球原油陆上及浮仓库存均快速攀升，创今年以来最高，同时为近5年同期最高。陆地库存分区域看，中国主营炼厂处开工率 低点,原油库存连续第3周回升,欧洲库存小幅反弹,印度、俄罗斯、中东库存下降。 风险提示: Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 I ZUUUU 3400000 90000 60000 3300000 第5周 第1周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第5周 第9周 第13周 第17周 第21周 第25周 第29周 第33周 第37周 第41周 第45周 第49周 第53周 第1周 资料来源： Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 3: 全球陆地+浮仓原油库存 2022 - - 2023 2021 2025 2024 千桶 4100000 4000000 3900000 3 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价盘中走出 V 字型，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.21 美 | | | | 元至 58.46 美元/桶，涨幅 0.36%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.27 | | | | 美元至 62.21 美元/桶，涨幅 0.44%。SC2601 以 440.5 元/桶收盘， | | | | 下跌 3.8 元/桶，跌幅为 0.86%。EIA 库存报告显示，因炼油活动 | | | | 强劲，上周美国原油库存下滑，汽油和馏分油库存增加。EIA 数 | | | | 据显示，截至 12 月 5 日当周，美国原油库存减少 181.2 万桶至 | | | | 4.2569 亿桶，预期下降 230 万桶。当周，俄克拉荷马州库欣交割 | | | | 中心的原油库存增加 30.8 万桶至 2160 万桶。美国原油净进口量 | | | 原油 | 增加 21.2 万桶/日至 258 万桶/日。在乌克兰无人机袭击黑海出口 | 震荡 | | | 码头扰乱石 ...

Group 1 - As of the report date, Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 are priced at $63.23 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 are priced at $59.55 per barrel [1][5] - Both crude oil and refined product inventories have increased this week, currently well above seasonal highs, with the surplus primarily due to rising inventories of other oil products in the U.S. [1][5] - The total inventory of refined products has increased, with gasoline and diesel inventories remaining within seasonal fluctuation ranges [1][5] Group 2 - As of the week ending November 28, crude oil inventories in the U.S., Japan, and the ARA region increased by 1.2% to 549.6 million barrels, with the inventory surplus narrowing from 21.2 million barrels to 10.3 million barrels compared to the five-year average [2][6] - Including global offshore crude oil inventories, total crude oil inventories rose by 4.1% to 681.2 million barrels, with the surplus expanding from 20.7 million barrels to 59.1 million barrels [2][6] - Refined product inventories in tracked regions increased by 0.7% to 1.0177 billion barrels, with the surplus expanding from 39.2 million barrels to 44.9 million barrels [2][6] Group 3 - The four-week average of U.S. refined product supply decreased by 42,000 barrels per day to 2.03 million barrels per day, down 109,000 barrels per day year-over-year [3][7] - The average dollar index reported at 99.1, down 0.56% from the previous week [4][8] - The net position of managed funds in ICE products increased by 7.6 million barrels week-over-week to 189.7 million barrels, ranking in the 27th percentile over the past five years [4][8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原油周报（SC)】 OPEC+继续暂停增产，国际油价暂获支撑 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-12-08 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 主要周度数据变动回顾 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 原油:OPE C +继续暂停增产，国际油价暂获支撑 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）EIA：EIA继续小幅上调对2025年和2026年全球原油及相关液体产量预测，预计2025年全球原油及相关液体产量为10,597万桶/日，较2024年上升 280万桶/日。(2)OPEC:10月份OPEC国家原油产量为2846万桶/日，较9月份上升3.3万桶/日，Non-OPEC DoC国家原油产量为1456.4万桶/日，较9月份 | | 供给（中长期） | 偏空 | | | | | 下降10.6万桶/日。（3）IEA：10 ...