Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a sideways consolidation [3] - The price of aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and macro - sentiment and downstream start - up should be monitored [4] 3) Summary by Related Content Finished Products - In the Yungui region, short - process construction steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is mostly from mid - to late January, and the resumption is expected around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel output [2] - In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills stopped production on January 5th, most will stop around mid - January, and some after January 20th, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% MoM decrease and a 43.2% YoY increase [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, hitting a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing little price support [3] Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. In April, the US PPI unexpectedly fell, and retail sales growth slowed. Fed officials need more data to determine the impact of tariff statements on prices and the economy [2] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises rose 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased 1.5 percentage points to 57.5% [3] - On May 15, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 581,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from Monday, 39,000 tons from last Thursday, and 166,000 tons from the same period last year, remaining at a near - three - year low [3] - Although the inventory of domestic aluminum ingots can maintain a de - stocking trend in the short term, around the end of May and early June, the circulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas may gradually ease. The key node of the subsequent inventory accumulation of domestic aluminum ingots needs to be confirmed [3] - Short - term warming of the macro - atmosphere boosts prices, but subsequent consumption will enter the off - season, and inventory faces accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of fundamentals after the dissipation of macro - sentiment [4]

Group 1: Report Title and Analyst Information - Report Title: "De-stocking Pressure Remains, Focus on Raw Material Industries - Industry Prosperity Series II" [1] - Analyst: Xu Wenyu,从业资格号: F0299877, Investment Consulting Number: Z0011454, Email: xuwenyu@htfc.com [2] Group 2: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views Manufacturing - Overall: In April, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 62.7%. Five industries' manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, a decrease of 3 month - on - month and 4 year - on - year [4] - Supply: On hold. In April, the manufacturing PMI production index was 49.8, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined [4] - Demand: On hold. In April, the manufacturing PMI new orders were 49.2, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [4] - Inventory: De - stocking continued. In April, the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory increased by 0 percentage points to 47.6. Four industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 11 declined. In March, the manufacturing PMI raw material inventory decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.3. Five industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 10 declined [4] Non - manufacturing - Overall: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 23.7%, with a change of - 10.1%. Eleven industries' non - manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 3 year - on - year [5] - Supply: Employment slowed. In April, the non - manufacturing PMI employee index was 46.3, unchanged month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.4 percentage points [5] - Demand: Demand declined. In March, the non - manufacturing PMI new orders were 46.4, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry's new orders decreased by 0.4 percentage points, and the construction industry's decreased by 2.6 percentage points [5] - Inventory: De - stocking continued. In March, the non - manufacturing PMI inventory was 45.3, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.7 percentage points [5] Group 4: Summary by Directory Overview - Manufacturing PMI: In April, the manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 6.7%, with a change of - 62.7%. Five industries' manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, a decrease of 3 month - on - month and 4 year - on - year [10] - Non - manufacturing PMI: In April, the non - manufacturing PMI's five - year percentile was 23.7%, with a change of - 10.1%. Eleven industries' non - manufacturing PMI was in the expansion range, unchanged month - on - month and a decrease of 3 year - on - year [10] Demand: Focus on the Improvement of Special - Purpose Equipment and Information - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI new orders were 49.2, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [17] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing PMI new orders were 45.9, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry's new orders decreased by 0.3 percentage points, and the construction industry's decreased by 1.7 percentage points. Five industries improved month - on - month, and 10 declined [17] Supply: Focus on the Contraction of Petroleum and Construction - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI production index was 49.8, a decrease of 2.8 percentage points month - on - month. Nine industries improved month - on - month, and 6 declined. In April, the manufacturing PMI employee index was 48.2, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month - on - month. Eight industries improved month - on - month, and 7 declined [24] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing PMI employee index was 45.9, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 3.6 percentage points. Six industries improved month - on - month, and 8 declined [24] Price: Focus on the Pressure of Non - Metallic Products and Real Estate - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI ex - factory price index was 47.1, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points month - on - month. Four industries' ex - factory prices improved month - on - month, and 11 declined. In terms of profit, in March, the profit trend increased by 0.8 percentage points month - on - month, and the overall continued to converge [32] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing charge price index was 47.0, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Four industries improved month - on - month, and 11 declined. In terms of profit, in March, the profit increased by 0.4 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.7 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 1.6 percentage points [32] Inventory: Focus on the Low Levels of the Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing Industry and the Nation - Manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the manufacturing PMI finished - goods inventory increased by 0.3 percentage points to 47.9. Eight industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 7 declined. In March, the manufacturing PMI raw material inventory decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 47.1. Six industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 9 declined [41] - Non - manufacturing: Based on the three - month average, in April, the non - manufacturing PMI inventory was 45.3, an increase of 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The service industry increased by 0.2 percentage points, and the construction industry decreased by 0.9 percentage points. Ten industries' inventory increased month - on - month, and 5 declined [41] Main Manufacturing Industry PMI Charts - The report provides PMI data for various manufacturing industries including special - purpose equipment, general equipment, automobiles, computers, motors, pharmaceuticals, etc., showing values, month - on - month and year - on - year changes, and three - year averages [48][49][52]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/4/30 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/29 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 498.0 | 483.6 | -14. 40 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情小跌,原油下跌,利空PTA行情,但去库 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 861.0 | 925.6 | 64. 65 | 存预期之下PTA主力供应商报盘基差较强,支撑PTA现 货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2379 | 1. 2634 | 0. 0255 | | | | CFR中国PX | 758 | 756 | -2 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 176 | 178 | 2 | | | | PTA主力 ...

工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 4 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 点评 7 日多晶硅震荡偏弱，主力 2506 收于 43265 元/吨，日内跌幅 0.67%，持仓增仓 1788 手至 33190 手；SMM 多晶硅 N 型硅料价格 42000 元/吨，现货对主力贴水收至 1265 元/吨。工业硅震荡偏弱，主力 2505 收于 9550 元/吨，日内跌幅 2.7%，持仓减仓 9409 手至 17.02 万手。百川工业硅现货参考价 10605 元/吨，较上一交易日下调 45 元/吨。最低交割品#553 价格降至 9650 元/吨，现货贴水收至 20 元/吨。企业联合 减产量级有限且需求持续疲弱，硅厂关于后续减产扩大与否仍未达成共识，难以形 成持续有效去库效果。预计减产在消息端有一定稳定市场情绪作用，但过剩压力高 企状态下，市场对再次减产的反应将逐步弱化。4 月多晶硅交割业务开启，交仓承 载结构性需求，但现货成交未见增速，且期现贸易商和厂家关于远月定价意见分 歧。供需错配预期加码、多晶硅延续近强远弱格局，持续跟踪交割进度及产业库存 去化节奏。 工业硅日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FU ...