Core Viewpoint - The significant appreciation of the Swiss Franc is creating deflationary pressures in Switzerland, complicating the Swiss National Bank's (SNB) ability to intervene due to the current U.S. administration's stance [1][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 10% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of the year, driven by global market volatility and a flight to safety [3][4]. - The strong Swiss Franc has led to a decrease in import prices, contributing to a 2.4% year-on-year decline in import prices and a 0.1% decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May, marking Switzerland's first return to deflation since the pandemic [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Response - The SNB may be forced to consider reintroducing negative interest rates as a response to the strong Swiss Franc, which could further lower the key interest rate by 25 basis points to -0.25% by the end of the year [5][6]. - The SNB ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy in 2022, but the current economic conditions may necessitate a reconsideration of this stance [5][6]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Intervention Challenges - The SNB's ability to intervene in the foreign exchange market is complicated by the U.S. government's potential response, as any direct intervention could lead to accusations of currency manipulation, reminiscent of the 2020 designation by the U.S. Treasury [6][7]. - The current geopolitical climate and the U.S. administration's trade policies make it difficult for the SNB to utilize foreign exchange interventions without facing significant repercussions [6][7].

Group 1 - The Japanese Ministry of Finance reported that the amount of foreign exchange intervention from April 28 to May 28 was zero [1]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, emphasizes the importance of holding sufficient foreign exchange reserves to respond to rapid fluctuations in exchange rates [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Foreign Exchange Reserves - Japan's current level of foreign exchange reserves is not excessive [1] - Following foreign exchange interventions, there has been a significant reduction in foreign exchange reserves [1]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) continues to buy US dollars to defend the currency peg, injecting HKD 60.543 billion due to the prolonged strong side of the peg at 7.75 against the USD [2] - Since last Friday, the HKMA has absorbed USD 7.812 billion in sell orders, raising the banking system's balance to HKD 161.384 billion [2] - The HKMA's total injections since last week amount to HKD 116.614 billion, with the recent interventions attributed to the weakening USD and concerns over trade agreements [2] Group 2 - The New Taiwan Dollar (TWD) experienced its largest increase since 1988, rising by 5% on Monday, prompting local authorities to address speculation about the currency's surge [3] - Taiwan's trade negotiation office clarified that the US did not request the TWD to appreciate, and recent negotiations did not involve foreign exchange policy [4] - Concerns among local exporters regarding the TWD's strength are rising, particularly affecting companies like TSMC, which saw a 1.3% drop in stock price [4] Group 3 - Taiwanese insurance companies hold approximately TWD 575 billion in US government bonds, with many lacking adequate hedging against a weakening USD, leading to potential losses [5] - The recent surge in TWD has led to a significant increase in trading volume, reaching the highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis [4] - Taiwan has been placed on the US Treasury's currency monitoring list, and the TWD's appreciation may be viewed as a bargaining chip in trade negotiations [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japan holds a significant amount of US Treasury bonds as part of its foreign exchange reserves, which is intended to ensure sufficient funds for foreign exchange interventions when necessary [1] Group 1 - Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, confirmed the country's substantial holdings of US Treasury bonds [1] - The purpose of holding these bonds is to maintain adequate funds for potential foreign exchange interventions [1]

Group 1 - Central bank policies are a primary driver of foreign exchange markets, influencing currency supply and demand, market expectations, and economic fundamentals, which in turn affect exchange rate fluctuations [1] - Interest rate adjustments directly impact borrowing costs, influencing capital flows and currency values; for instance, aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 led to a nearly 20% surge in the US dollar index, reaching a 20-year high [4][24] - Quantitative easing (QE) increases money supply and can lead to currency depreciation, as seen when the Federal Reserve's unlimited QE during the pandemic caused a 12% drop in the dollar index [7][6] Group 2 - Central banks can intervene directly in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling currencies to influence exchange rates; for example, Japan's Ministry of Finance warned about potential intervention to stabilize the yen [11][9] - Forward guidance from central banks can shape market expectations regarding future policy directions, with hawkish signals typically strengthening the currency and dovish signals weakening it [12][13] Group 3 - The transmission of central bank policies to the foreign exchange market occurs through various channels, including interest rate parity, capital flows, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment [16][22] - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on employment and inflation, making the US dollar a global safe-haven currency, while the European Central Bank's policies are primarily aimed at inflation control, impacting the euro's value [24][25] Group 4 - Recent policy shifts, such as the Federal Reserve's transition to aggressive rate hikes from late 2021, have led to significant market reactions, including a rise in the dollar index and a peak exchange rate against the yen [24][1] - The Bank of Japan's unexpected adjustment of its yield curve control policy in December 2022 resulted in a 4% appreciation of the yen against the dollar, breaking a long-term depreciation trend [26][2] Group 5 - Future challenges for central banks include the rise of digital currencies and geopolitical factors that may influence monetary policy and currency dynamics, such as the trend of "de-dollarization" among various nations [32][34] - The interconnectedness of markets necessitates that traders consider policy analysis alongside technical factors and liquidity management to navigate extreme market conditions effectively [38][37]

Core Insights - Richard Clarida argues that the common belief attributing the success of the Plaza and Louvre Accords primarily to coordinated foreign exchange interventions is a myth, emphasizing that U.S. domestic monetary and fiscal policy adjustments were the true driving forces behind the dollar's depreciation and the reduction of the trade deficit [1][2][3] Group 1: Historical Context - The Plaza Accord was signed in September 1985 by the G5 nations to address the soaring dollar and increasing trade deficit, which reached about 3% of GDP [2] - The Louvre Accord followed in February 1987, aiming to stabilize the dollar after it had depreciated sufficiently [2] - By 1989, the U.S. trade deficit as a percentage of GDP had decreased by two-thirds, leading many to mistakenly credit foreign exchange interventions for this outcome [2][3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - Clarida highlights that the significant easing of U.S. monetary policy under Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker was the key factor in the dollar's depreciation [4] - From October 1984 to December 1986, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates from 12% to 6%, which correlated with the weakening of the dollar [4][5] - The decline in U.S. interest rates diminished the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets, prompting capital to flow to currencies with higher yields [5] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Role - U.S. fiscal adjustments also played a crucial role in reducing the trade deficit, with significant budget cuts leading to a nearly 40% reduction in the budget deficit [6] - The initial Plaza Accord emphasized the need for fiscal adjustments in the U.S., Japan, and Germany to address global trade imbalances, which were effectively implemented in the U.S. [6] Group 4: Contemporary Implications - Clarida discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Accord" concept proposed during Trump's presidency, which aims to apply lessons from the Plaza Accord to current trade issues [7] - He expresses skepticism about the feasibility of using past experiences to guide current policy, citing limited monetary policy space, unclear fiscal prospects, and complex geopolitical dynamics as significant challenges [7]

金十整理：瑞郎一路狂飙 瑞士两难之下是选择拥抱"负利率"还是冒险干预汇市？ 经济面临重重难关 1. 瑞郎升值：避险资金无视基本面涌入瑞郎，仅在4月，瑞郎兑美元汇率一度上涨了9%。 2. 通胀低迷：最新数据显示，瑞士通胀年率仅为约0.3%，已经处于央行0%至2%目标范围的低端。 3. 国际贸易依赖：瑞士人口只有900万，是一个严重依赖进出口的市场经济国家，出口部门占GDP的近 70%。瑞郎升值将不利于出口，并加剧通缩压力。 4. 面临高额关税：美国对瑞士实施的对等关税税率为31%，高于欧盟对瑞士的税率。综合外媒报导，瑞 士对美出口额占总出口的10%以上。 5. 前景阴云密布：据瑞士国家银行的最新预测，2025年瑞士的GDP增长率预计在1%至1.5%之间，显著 低于其历史平均水平1.8%。 负利率还是外汇干预？陷入两难... 1. 政策空间有限 抑制瑞郎升值"黔驴技穷" 瑞士政策利率已经达到0.25%，若经济状况进一步恶化，剩下的常规弹药就所剩无几了，进一步降息将 走向负利率。 2. 高盛集团：预测瑞士央行将在9月之前连续两次降息25个基点，使政策利率降至-0.25%。 3. 机构调查：大多数机构预计瑞士将把利率 ...

国际货币基金组织：对亚洲政策制定者来说，外汇灵活性将是抵御冲击的关键缓冲，但在波动性加剧的 情况下，外汇干预可能会发挥作用。 ...

据消息人士透露，日本财政大臣加藤胜信本周在华盛顿会见美国财长贝森特时，日元汇率问题正成为讨 论的主要议题，尽管消息人士称东京将抵制任何要求提振日元的请求。 据三位了解谈判情况的消息人士透露，虽然一些分析师猜测华盛顿将向东京施压，要求其帮助提振日 元，但日本认为通过外汇干预或央行立即加息等直接行动来影响汇率的空间很小。 消息人士称，相反，日本政策制定者希望更好地了解美国在汇率问题上的想法，以及这些想法如何融入 两国为达成贸易协议将要谈判的一系列措施中。 这意味着加藤与贝森特之间的会晤（这将是他们首次面对面会谈）可能达不到一些市场参与者对于出台 旨在提振日元的大规模协调措施的期望。 分析师表示，为回应美国要求而加息，也将削弱日本央行制定货币政策的独立性，并损害央行的信誉。 一位消息人士在谈到日本关于预计举行的加藤和贝森特会晤的策略时表示："（日本）很大程度上将是 探听华盛顿的意图。" 二者的会晤将在国际货币基金组织华盛顿春季会议期间举行。 加藤周二告诉记者，两国仍在安排会晤日期。日本政策制定者表示，他们尚未收到美国关于货币政策的 任何具体要求。 美国上一次主要向日本施压要求其加强日元是在1985年，当时华盛顿在广 ...