文 | 花生说科技，作者 | 李皙寅·花生，编辑 | 黑松 上天！上天！上天！ 地球总人口已突破80亿，当大多数人在"开好车、住大房、好工作、还要子女继承"的赛道里卷生卷死。 或许应该意识到人生是旷野，不用一条路走到底，选择可以足够得多。比如，没必要局限在资源有限的 地球上。 广袤宇宙中，藏着比地球多得多的资源与空间。如同大航海时代的探险家让世界真正联动起来。人类迈 向星海的每一步，都可能解锁全新的文明机遇。 当然，嘴上说的，不如手上做的，这种想象正逐渐贴近现实。 资本市场的真金白银给出了反馈：当SpaceX放出上市风声，产业链应声上涨、估值传闻从4000亿美元 飙至1.5万亿美元，这场狂欢的核心，全球资本对太空经济的热度越来越大。 SpaceX的估值飙升与上市计划，标志着全球商业航天产业正进入爆发期。 就像智能手机普及催生移动互联网生态，太空基础设施的完善，将催生太空旅游、在轨制造、太空数据 中心等全新经济形态。 这不，12月12日，大A再度飘红，商业航天板块领涨。比如给火箭造结构件的超捷股份周涨幅高达 39.03%，据说一周内接受了73家机构的调研，市场情绪可谓烈火烹油。（听花生说了这么久商业航 天，不知 ...

8000亿是什么概念？相当于5个特斯拉的市值，比阿根廷全年GDP还高！马斯克距离全球首个万亿富豪只剩一步之遥？这波估值狂欢到底靠的是技术硬实 力，还是资本讲故事？ 王爷说财经讯：估值8000亿美元，全球最大规模IPO要来了！ 2025年12月15日，全球财经圈被一则消息震翻：SpaceX估值飙升至8000亿美元！这一数字比半年前直接翻倍，远超OpenAI的5000亿估值，重夺全球最贵独 角兽宝座。 01、SpaceX估值8000亿美元：5个月翻倍的估值神话 谁能想到，2025年7月还只有4000亿估值的SpaceX，短短5个月就实现估值翻倍。 这波飙升的核心推手，是其最新敲定的内部股票交易——每股定价421美元，直接将公司估值锁定在8000亿美元。 更关键的是，SpaceX已明确2026年下半年IPO计划，此次估值调整正是为上市铺路。 要知道，这家成立近25年的航天公司，2025年预计营收仅155亿美元，却撑起了51倍的市销率——这是波音的12倍，更是科技行业平均水平的5倍以上。 一边是尚未盈利的业绩，一边是资本疯抢的热情，这场估值神话的背后藏着什么逻辑？ 02、SpaceX估值飙升的4大核心逻辑 那么问题来 ...

Core Insights - SpaceX is preparing for a potential IPO in 2026, confirming recent market speculation and signaling a significant move towards public capital markets [1][4] - The company's internal stock pricing is currently set at $421 per share, leading to an overall valuation of approximately $800 billion, nearly doubling from $400 billion in July [4] - If the IPO proceeds, SpaceX's valuation could exceed $1 trillion, with some estimates suggesting a target valuation of up to $1.5 trillion [4] Financial and Operational Highlights - SpaceX is the busiest rocket launch service provider globally, with its Falcon 9 rocket executing frequent launch missions [5] - The company has deployed over 9,000 satellites in its Starlink satellite internet constellation, rapidly expanding its user base and revenue [5] - Projected revenue for 2025 is approximately $15.5 billion, with the company achieving positive free cash flow for several consecutive years [5] IPO Implications and Market Reactions - The potential IPO could raise over $30 billion, making it one of the largest IPOs in history, attracting significant attention in global capital markets over the next two years [5] - Investors generally welcome the news of SpaceX's potential IPO, viewing it as a means to fund ambitious projects like Mars exploration and allowing public investors to participate in the growing space economy [5] - The company has established a robust internal equity liquidity mechanism, providing employees with opportunities to sell shares, which supports its transition to public markets [5]

当马斯克在推特上轻描淡写地写下"Eric一如既往地准确"时，全球资本市场瞬间沸腾。这位以颠覆传统著称的科技狂人，正在用SpaceX上演一场比特斯拉更 疯狂的资本游戏——从矢口否认上市到暧昧回应，从300亿美元融资传闻到1.5万亿美元估值猜想，马斯克的每一次呼吸都牵动着华尔街的神经。 2010年特斯拉上市时，马斯克选择了一条标准路径：在Model S量产前夕，以17美元发行价募资2.26亿美元。这个被媒体称为"华尔街最差IPO"的开局，最终 演变成市值破万亿美元的传奇。但SpaceX面临的资本语境已截然不同——当特斯拉需要证明电动汽车可行性时，SpaceX要论证的是整个太空经济的商业逻 辑。 二级市场数据显示，特斯拉IPO后五年内融资超50亿美元，而SpaceX仅私募就吸金近百亿。这种差异暴露出马斯克资本策略的进化：特斯拉需要公开市场输 血求生，SpaceX则用政府合同和私募构建护城河。NASA每年28亿美元的订单，正是SpaceX迟迟不肯上市的底气。 特斯拉的IPO模板：教科书级资本运作 马斯克那句"估值取决于星舰和星链"，道破了SpaceX的核心矛盾。当星链已实现现金流平衡时，耗资百亿的星舰仍是吞金巨兽。这 ...

Core Insights - The satellite industry sector is showing strong performance, with the Satellite Industry ETF (159218) rising by 1.52% as of December 11, 2023, leading the market with a trading volume of approximately 140 million yuan and a turnover rate of 18.40% [1][2] - The ETF has seen a remarkable year-to-date growth in shares of 426.85%, continuously setting historical highs [1] - Multiple catalysts are driving the industry forward, including SpaceX's advancement on a $30 billion IPO plan and the acceleration of commercial aerospace industry layouts in major Chinese provinces like Guangdong and Shandong [2] - China Star Network has initiated key equipment bidding, indicating a significant phase in application development [2] - The Satellite Industry ETF (159218) is becoming an essential investment tool for investors looking to capitalize on the growth opportunities in the space economy [3]

Core Viewpoint - The satellite ETF (159206) has seen a significant increase, rising 1.36% and achieving a six-day consecutive gain, driven by strong performances from constituent stocks like China Satellite (600118) and others [3][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The satellite ETF's latest scale reached 2.536 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [4]. - The ETF's shares have also reached 1.921 billion, setting a record since its establishment [5]. - Over the past nine days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 793 million yuan, with a peak single-day net inflow of 294 million yuan [5]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to the Satellite Industry Association, the global commercial satellite industry is expected to dominate the aerospace sector, accounting for 71% of global aerospace business in 2024 [7]. - The Chinese commercial aerospace market is projected to exceed 2.8 trillion yuan by 2025, indicating a robust growth outlook for the satellite industry [7]. - The satellite communication industry is anticipated to reach a market size of 200 to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual compound growth rate between 10% and 28% [7]. - The satellite ETF (159206) focuses on commercial aerospace and satellite communication, positioning it for potential growth under the "strong aerospace nation" backdrop [7].

在多重利好共振下，卫星产业ETF作为一键投资全产业链的便捷工具，持续获得资金青睐，成为分享中国太空经 济发展红利的核心配置选择。 风险提示：基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 分析指出，当前产业层面催化不断：全球方面，SpaceX超大规模IPO计划推进，重塑行业估值标杆；国内方面， 广东国资成立商业航天公司，地方产业布局加速。同时，中国星网启动相控阵终端等核心设备招标，标志着卫 星互联网应用落地进入实质性阶段。 市场资金正加速涌入商业航天赛道。截至12月10日，卫星产业ETF(159218)在近5个交易日内实现4次净流入，年 内份额暴涨426.85%，成交活跃度持续攀升。 ...

Important Market News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This marks the third consecutive rate cut since September 2023 and the sixth since the current easing cycle began in September 2024. Fed Chairman Powell stated that the monetary policy actions are guided by the dual mandate of promoting full employment and price stability. The committee noted that inflation risks are tilted upward while employment risks are tilted downward, indicating a challenging situation [1] - U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, Nasdaq up 0.33%, and S&P 500 up 0.68%. Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Tesla, Amazon, Broadcom, and Google gaining over 1%. However, Meta fell over 1% and Microsoft dropped over 2%. Storage, energy storage, and infrastructure stocks led the gains, with GE Vernova rising over 15% and Sandisk up over 6%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.65%, with most Chinese concept stocks increasing [1] Industry Insights - SpaceX is advancing its IPO plans, aiming for a valuation of $1.5 trillion and plans to raise over $30 billion. The IPO is expected to occur in mid to late 2026, with part of the funds allocated for developing space data centers. SpaceX currently monopolizes nearly 90% of the orbital launch market and is expanding into space data services, creating a business model independent of Earth's resource limitations. If successful, this IPO could surpass Saudi Aramco's record $29 billion fundraising in 2019, marking the largest IPO in history [3] - The satellite communication industry is projected to grow significantly, with estimates suggesting it could reach between 200 billion to 400 billion yuan by 2030, with an annual growth rate of 10%-28%. The industry is at a critical turning point from "concept validation" to "scale application," driven by technological maturity, cost reductions, and expanded application scenarios [4] - NAND flash memory prices have surged nearly 50% in a month, with shortages expected to become widespread after Q2 2024. Reports indicate that many manufacturers have inventory only until Q1 2026, and some will have no stock available from March 2024. The price increase is driven by a shift in production capacity towards high-profit enterprise and AI applications, alongside a rapid exit of older process capacities [5] - The low-altitude economy is becoming a strategic emerging industry, with Meituan set to launch an integrated low-altitude logistics network. This network aims to achieve delivery efficiency within a 3-kilometer radius in 15 minutes. The market for low-altitude economy is expected to reach 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 and 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035, presenting significant growth opportunities for related companies [7]

Market News - The three major US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.45%, Nasdaq down 0.14%, and S&P 500 down 0.35%. Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla down over 3%, Google down over 2%, Amazon down over 1%, Facebook down nearly 1%, and Apple down 0.32%. Microsoft and Nvidia saw gains of over 1% [1] - International oil prices fell significantly, with WTI crude oil down 2.13% at $58.8 per barrel and Brent crude down 2.01% at $62.47 per barrel. Spot gold decreased by 0.11% to $4191.3 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures fell by 0.52% to $4221 per ounce [1] - European stock indices had mixed results, with Germany's DAX up 0.07% at 24046.01 points, France's CAC40 down 0.08% at 8108.43 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.23% at 9645.09 points [1] Industry Insights - Wenchang International Space City is set to launch a super factory capable of producing 1,000 satellites annually, achieving seamless integration of satellite production and launch. The successful orbit of Blue Arrow's Zhuque-3 rocket marks a key breakthrough in China's reusable liquid oxygen-methane rocket technology, accelerating the development of the commercial space industry chain. ARK Investment Management predicts that SpaceX's enterprise value will reach $2.5 trillion by 2030, with the reusability of the Starship being a critical factor [2] - The satellite internet sector is becoming a new battleground in global tech competition, with the space economy expected to encompass satellite communication, navigation, remote sensing, and space tourism. The satellite communication industry is projected to exceed 200-400 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 10%-28%. The industry is at a pivotal transition from "concept validation" to "scale application," driven by technological maturity, cost reduction, and expanded application scenarios [2] - The AI glasses market is gaining momentum, with major companies like Google and Xiaomi advancing their AI glasses projects. Apple plans to launch its lightweight smart glasses, Apple Glasses, in 2026. The AI application sector is expected to be a significant focus for tech investments in the coming years, with the global sales of AI glasses with camera functions projected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025, and a compound annual growth rate exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029 [4][5] - The humanoid robot industry is experiencing rapid developments, with companies like Midea Group unveiling their sixth-arm wheeled humanoid robot "MIROU" and others like Zhongqi Robot and Tesla making significant advancements. The year 2025 is anticipated to be a critical turning point for humanoid robots, with increased support from the government and industry expected to drive substantial growth in domestic robot shipments [5][6]

12月10日，有媒体报道，马斯克旗下太空探索公司SpaceX正在推进首次公开发行股票（IPO）计划，旨在 筹集远超300亿美元的资金，估值目标定为约1.5万亿美元。 SpaceX这一估值接近沙特阿美在2019年上市时所达到的市值水平。而若此次募资成功，SpaceX 此次募资金 额将超过沙特阿美当时的290亿美元，有望成为有史以来规模最大的IPO。 部分知情人士表示，SpaceX 管理层及其顾问正力争在 2026 年中至下半年完成上市。不过，IPO的具体时间 可能因市场环境及其他因素而调整，其中一位人士甚至表示上市可能推迟至2027年。 SpaceX预计2025年营收约150亿美元，2026年增至220亿至240亿美元，其中大部分收入来自Starlink星链业 务。马斯克12月6日在其社交媒体平台上发文称："SpaceX多年来一直保持正向现金流，并每年进行两次定 期股票回购，以向员工和投资者提供流动性。" 据悉，SpaceX计划将IPO募集的部分资金用于开发基于太空的数据中心，包括采购运行这些设施所需的芯 片。 当SpaceX的猎鹰9号火箭划破夜空，它也正点燃着全球资本市场的想象力。然而那绚丽的发射火焰下，隐藏 ...