Core Viewpoints - The economic growth structure is shifting from traditional sectors to new momentum, with significant improvements in new momentum sectors [1][7][73]. Manufacturing Sector - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with seasonal trends [1][7][73]. - The production index reached a six-month high of 51.9%, increasing by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index rose only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7% [1][7][73]. - The demand structure shows that new export orders increased more significantly than domestic orders, with new export orders rising by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8% [1][13][73]. - The purchasing volume index rose by 1.2 percentage points to 51.6%, indicating increased procurement activity due to stronger production [1][7][73]. New Momentum Industries - New momentum industries, such as equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing, saw significant PMI improvements, with equipment manufacturing PMI rising by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6% [2][19][74]. - The EPMI for emerging industries increased by 4.6 percentage points to 52.4%, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [2][19][74]. - In contrast, high-energy-consuming industries experienced a decline in PMI, dropping 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, reflecting ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure investments [2][19][74]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to the critical point of 50%, with the construction PMI remaining low at 49.3% and the service PMI declining by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1% [2][24][74]. - The service sector, particularly industries related to consumer travel, such as dining and entertainment, saw significant declines in business activity indices [2][24][74]. - Conversely, sectors like postal and financial services maintained high activity indices above 60% [2][24][74]. Future Outlook - Although traditional sectors face downward pressure, new momentum is expected to provide stronger support for the economy, with ongoing monitoring of the effects of new growth policies [3][75]. - The implementation of new growth policies in key industries such as construction and steel is anticipated to mitigate risks associated with real estate and infrastructure downturns [3][75].

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In September, the manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from 49.4% in August[1][7] - The production index rose to 51.9%, marking a 1.1 percentage point increase, the highest in nearly six months[2][8] - New orders index increased by only 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, indicating weaker recovery compared to production[2][8] Demand Structure - New export orders index rose by 0.6 percentage points to 47.8%, showing stronger external demand compared to domestic orders[2][3] - The overall demand structure continues to reflect that external demand is outperforming internal demand[2][3] Sector Performance - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 1.1 percentage points to 51.6%, while high-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.9%[3][17] - High-energy consumption industries saw a decline in PMI by 0.7 percentage points to 47.5%, indicating ongoing weakness in real estate and infrastructure sectors[3][17] Non-Manufacturing PMI Trends - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points, with service sector PMI dropping significantly by 0.4 percentage points to 50.1%[5][33] - Construction PMI showed slight recovery, increasing by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, but still remains at historical lows[5][21] Future Outlook - Despite downward pressure on traditional sectors, new economic drivers are showing significant support for growth, necessitating close monitoring of new growth policies[4][25] - The implementation of new stability policies in key industries is expected to mitigate risks associated with infrastructure and real estate downturns[4][25]

Core Insights - Multinational operations are essential for large enterprises to engage in international competition and become world-class companies, especially under the challenges posed by the complex external environment and economic globalization since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] Group 1: Scale and Growth - The threshold for entering the top 100 Chinese multinational companies has increased from 10.939 billion to 22.173 billion, more than doubling since the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1] - Overseas operating revenue has grown from 6.15 trillion to 9.07 trillion, indicating a significant enhancement in market expansion capabilities [1] Group 2: Structural Optimization - The rise of new enterprises, represented by the "new three types," has expanded the breadth and depth of multinational development, with 15 companies in advanced manufacturing sectors like automotive and renewable energy joining the top 100 by 2025, an increase of 3 from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The number of companies in modern service industries, such as internet services and logistics, has increased to 6, up by 5 from the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [2] Group 3: Business Models - Large enterprises are leveraging their hub and platform advantages to drive cluster development across the entire industry and supply chain, establishing both physical "Chinese industrial parks" and digital "industrial parks" [2] - The integration of "artificial intelligence+" is enhancing the supply chain service system, supporting the robust growth of cross-border e-commerce and facilitating the upgrade from "Made in China" to "Chinese brands" [2] Group 4: Technological and Standardization Advancements - The number of invention patents held by the top 100 Chinese multinational companies has increased from 473,000 to 763,000, a growth of approximately 61%, while participation in standard-setting has risen from 53,000 to 62,000, a growth of about 17% [3] - Leading companies in information technology services are transitioning from participants to enablers and shapers in international digital ecological governance by exporting mature business models and technical standards [3] Group 5: Contributions and Responsibilities - Large enterprises are committed to the principle of "consultation, construction, and sharing," actively taking on social responsibilities and pursuing global win-win outcomes, thereby creating jobs and improving livelihoods in host countries [3] - The process of international cooperation is being strengthened through "hard connectivity," "soft connectivity," and "heart connectivity," contributing to the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind [3] Group 6: Future Directions - Large enterprises face multiple tasks, including expanding the breadth of "going out," deepening "going in," and enhancing "going up" in international competition [4] - Key strategies include strengthening core technology development, resource integration, participation in global rule-making, and deepening localization efforts to respect local cultures and laws [4]

Group 1: New Economic Dynamics - The high-tech manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth, indicating a new acceleration in economic dynamics [9][10] - Recent financial data shows a decline in credit balance and social financing, with M1 increasing slightly [17] - The impact of "anti-involution" is beginning to manifest in mid-to-lower production and investment sectors [21] Group 2: Gold Price Concerns - Recent trends indicate that gold price increases are primarily concentrated during U.S. trading hours, raising concerns about future price stability [12][11] - The differentiation in investment allocation among different regions may influence future gold price movements [12] Group 3: Fiscal Policy Insights - Broad fiscal spending is slowing down, prompting the need for potential countermeasures to address downward pressure on the economy [21][23] - The upcoming fiscal "second half" may focus on risk prevention, transformation promotion, and consumer protection [16] Group 4: Real Estate Market Trends - There is an improvement in new home transactions in first-tier cities, supported by industrial production recovery and high infrastructure investment [24] Group 5: International Cooperation - The BRICS summit emphasized the importance of multilateralism and international cooperation to address global challenges and promote economic development [29] Group 6: Monetary Policy Outlook - The recent FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, with increased expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 [30]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 |申万宏源·宏观团队 联系人| 浦聚颖 9 . 1 3 - 9 . 1 9 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 电话会议 1、 "周见系列" 第49期："降息交易"的反转 2、"洞见系列" 目录 热点思考 1、 热点思考 | 新动能的"新变化 " 2、 热点思考 | 金价，新高之后的"隐忧" 3、 热点思考 | 财政"下半场"，可能的"后手"？ 高频跟踪 第93期: 《金价，新高之后的"隐忧" 》 第94期: 《财政"下半场"，可能的"后手"》 3、"速见系列" 第5期： 《9月FOMC例会：解读与展望》 热点思考 1 热点思考 | 新动能的"新变化" 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.9.16 高技术制造业延续高景气下，经济新动能跑出"加速度"。新动能有何"新变化"，潜在影响几何？ 1、 数据点评 | "存款搬家"提速 2、 数据点评 | "反内卷"影响开始显现 3、 数据点评 | 财政支出趋弱，关注加码可能 4、 国内高频 | 一线城市新房成交改善 5、 海外高频 | 市场消化年内三次降息预期，贵金属价格持续上涨 6、 政策高频 | 金砖 ...

Production - In August 2025, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size grew by 5.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[11] - The manufacturing sector remains the main driver of industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, down from 6.2%[11] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 28.5% to the overall industrial growth[11] Consumption - The total retail sales of consumer goods in August 2025 increased by 3.4% year-on-year, a decline of 0.3 percentage points from July[2] - Rural consumption grew by 4.6%, outpacing urban consumption growth of 3.2%, indicating significant potential in the rural market[14] - Over 80% of product categories saw retail sales growth, with more than 30% achieving double-digit growth[15] Investment - From January to August 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5%, continuing a downward trend[24] - Excluding real estate development investment, fixed asset investment grew by 4.2%, indicating resilience in manufacturing and some infrastructure sectors[24] - Real estate development investment fell by 12.9% year-on-year, with new construction, completion, and construction area all showing declines[25]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the high-tech manufacturing industry is experiencing a significant upturn in its economic performance, with growth momentum shifting from external demand to internal demand since 2023 [2][10][28] - The EPMI index has shown a greater rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating an improvement in the economic climate for emerging industries [2][10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing has increased significantly in 2023, contributing to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, which is expected to drive GDP growth by 2.3% [2][10] Group 2 - The profitability of high-tech manufacturing has shown greater resilience compared to other industries, primarily due to a higher profit margin that exceeds other manufacturing sectors by approximately 2 percentage points [4][33] - The profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5% in July 2025, while other industries were at 4.3% [4][33] - High-tech manufacturing has maintained a lower cost rate, approximately 5 percentage points lower than other manufacturing sectors, which supports its profit margin [4][43] Group 3 - The improvement in profitability within high-tech manufacturing is expected to have a direct impact on the labor market, leading to increased employment in this sector [6][67] - Employment growth in high-tech manufacturing is projected to rebound to 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with negative growth in other manufacturing sectors [6][67] - Higher wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to boost household income, with average annual salary growth in sectors like electrical machinery and computer communications reaching 14.9% and 12%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [8][72]

Group 1: Changes in New Growth Momentum - Since 2023, the high-tech manufacturing industry has seen an upward trend, with growth momentum shifting from external demand to internal demand [2][3] - The EPMI index has shown a greater rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating an improvement in the economic climate for emerging industries [2][10] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing has significantly increased in 2023, contributing to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, driving GDP growth by 2.3%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023 [2][10] Group 2: Profitability Performance of New Growth Momentum - The profit growth of the high-tech manufacturing sector is more resilient than that of other industries, primarily due to a higher profit margin, which exceeds that of other manufacturing sectors by approximately 2 percentage points [4][33] - Since 2019, profit growth in high-tech manufacturing has consistently outpaced that of other manufacturing sectors, with profit shares in electrical machinery and computer communications increasing by 3.8 and 1.5 percentage points, respectively, by July 2025 [4][33] - The profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5% in July 2025, while other industries lagged at 4.3% [4][33] Group 3: Factors Influencing Profitability - High-tech manufacturing maintains a cost rate approximately 5 percentage points lower than other manufacturing sectors, supporting its relatively high profit margins [4][43] - The cost rate for high-tech manufacturing has remained around 90%, compared to 94.5% for other manufacturing sectors, contributing to better profit performance [4][43] - Increased investment in innovation has provided high-tech manufacturing with stronger pricing power, helping to sustain profit margin growth [5][56] Group 4: Potential Impacts of Accelerated New Growth Momentum - The improvement in profitability within high-tech manufacturing is expected to directly impact the labor market, leading to increased employment in this sector [6][67] - Employment growth in high-tech manufacturing is projected to rebound to 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with negative growth in other manufacturing sectors [6][67] - Higher wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to further boost household income, with average annual salary growth in electrical machinery and computer communications projected at 14.9% and 12%, respectively, from 2019 to 2024 [8][72]

Group 1: New Momentum Growth Changes - The high-tech manufacturing industry has seen a significant increase in prosperity since 2023, with the EPMI index showing a larger rebound compared to the PMI index, indicating improved conditions in emerging industries[2] - In the first half of 2025, the added value of high-tech industries grew by 8.6% year-on-year, contributing 2.3% to GDP, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2023[2] - The growth momentum of high-tech manufacturing has shifted from external demand to internal demand, with revenue resilience increasingly coming from domestic sectors since 2022[3] Group 2: Profit Performance of New Momentum - High-tech manufacturing profits have shown greater resilience compared to other industries, with profit margins maintaining a higher level, approximately 2 percentage points above other manufacturing sectors[4] - As of July 2025, the profit margin for high-tech manufacturing was recorded at 6.5%, while other industries were at 4.3%[4] - The cost rate for high-tech manufacturing is about 5 percentage points lower than that of other manufacturing, supporting its relatively high profit margins[4] Group 3: Potential Impacts of Accelerated New Momentum - The improvement in profits within high-tech manufacturing is expected to directly support wages and employment, with employment growth in this sector projected to reach 0.9% by 2025, contrasting with a negative growth rate of -1.7% in other manufacturing sectors[6] - High-tech manufacturing sectors such as computer communication and specialized equipment are seeing significant increases in employment share, with respective increases of 0.7, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points by July 2025[6] - Rising wages in high-tech manufacturing are anticipated to further boost household income, with average annual salary growth in sectors like electrical machinery and computer communication projected at 14.9% and 12% respectively from 2019 to 2024[6]

Economic Overview - The national economy is maintaining a stable and progressive development trend, with steady production demand and overall stability in employment and prices [1] - New growth drivers are being cultivated and strengthened [1] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index grew by 5.6% year-on-year [1] Market Sales and Investment - Social retail sales totaled 39,668 billion yuan in August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [1] - Fixed asset investment continues to grow, and total goods import and export reached 38,744 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year [1] - Exports amounted to 23,035 billion yuan, growing by 4.8%, while imports were 15,709 billion yuan, increasing by 1.7% [1] Employment and Price Stability - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to August was 5.2%, with August's rate at 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in August, remaining flat month-on-month; however, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]