Group 1: Basic Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 60954 | 8894 | 8918 | 8926 | 8746 | 8838 | -56 | -0.63% | 611600 | 350396 | -43745 | | P2601 | 8914 | 8946 | 8946 | 8756 | 8832 | -82 | -0.92% | 187926 | 207992 | 6902 | | Y2509 | 8228 | 8274 | 8296 | 8210 | 8250 | 22 | 0.27% | 310265 | 474605 | -25151 | | Y2601 | 8186 | 8230 | 8256 | 8154 | 8214 | 28 | 0.34% | 205137 | 468687 | 14291 | | OI2509 | 8495 | 9516 | 9545 | 9442 | 9542 | 41 | 0.49% | 218228 | 181646 | -7467 | | OI2601 | 9434 | 9462 | 9478 | 9383 | 9472 | 38 | 0.40% | 76818 | 133755 | 5894 | [7] Operation Suggestions - The short - term adjustment of the three major domestic oils may occur at any time, but the adjustment space is limited. In the medium and long term, it is advisable to buy on dips. - The spot basis of the three major domestic oils has little room for significant downward adjustment in the later stage. It is advisable to appropriately buy the far - month basis. [8] Core View - In the morning, the performance of oils was poor, mainly dragged down by the decline of CBOT soybean oil and the weakness of international crude oil. - The palm oil production in Malaysia in July may be better than expected, but the export is still very weak, which means that the palm oil inventory at the end of July may exceed 2.1 million tons. According to shipping survey agencies, the export of Malaysian palm oil in July decreased by 2.4% - 9.6% month - on - month. The increase in production and weak demand put pressure on palm oil prices. - The near - term supply of rapeseed oil is sufficient, but the fewer purchases of far - month cargoes support the futures price. - Due to the still abundant supply of Brazilian soybeans at present, factories will maintain a high operating rate, and the inventory of factory soybean oil may still increase, which drags down the rise of soybean oil, but the long - term outlook is positive. [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, the palm oil production in Malaysia in July increased by 7.07% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 7.19% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.02% month - on - month. - According to SPPOMA data, from July 1 - 25, the palm oil production in Malaysia increased by 5.52% month - on - month, among which the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield per unit increased by 6.08% month - on - month, and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreased by 0.1% month - on - month. - According to AmSpec, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,163,216 tons, a 9.6% decrease compared with 1,286,461 tons in June. According to ITS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil in July was 1,289,727 tons, a 2.4% decrease compared with 1,320,914 tons in June. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the P1 - 5 spread, P5 - 9 spread, P9 - 1 spread, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Malaysian ringgit, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan. All data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures. [11][19][21][23][26][30]

油脂日报 | 2025-08-01 马棕出口放缓，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8900.00元/吨，环比变化-82元，幅度-0.91%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8192.00 元/吨，环比变化-48.00元，幅度-0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9510.00元/吨，环比变化-111.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8940.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.67%，现货基差P09+40.00，环比变化 +22.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.48%，现货基差Y09+138.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9600.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差OI09+90.00， 环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚7月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1289727吨，较上月同期出口 的1382460吨减少6.71%。印度植物油生产商协会（IVPA）表示，随着全球价格下降，印度植物油进口商正在增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the oil and fat industry is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The EU and Indonesia reached a zero - tariff quota for palm oil trade, which is beneficial for palm oil exports. However, the market expects that the zero - tariff palm oil exports from Indonesia to the EU will mainly increase the demand for palm oil in the food industry, with limited impact, and the oils will continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Related Content Futures Prices - Yesterday's closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8982.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +12 yuan, or +0.13%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +14.00 yuan, or +0.17%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9621.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +129.00 yuan, or +1.36% [1] Spot Prices - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9000.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +60.00 yuan, or +0.67%, and the spot basis was P09 + 18.00, a环比 change of +48.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8370.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +20.00 yuan/ton, or +0.24%, and the spot basis was Y09 + 130.00, a环比 change of +6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, a环比 change of +130.00 yuan, or +1.36%, and the spot basis was OI09 + 89.00, a环比 change of +1.00 yuan [1] Market News - The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), and they agreed on a tariff quota method for palm oil trade, which will set a quota for the quantity of EU - imported palm oil eligible for 0% tariff [2] - The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 579 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 569 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1182 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F quote of imported rapeseed oil: the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 460 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 455 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 469 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium of the Mexican Gulf (September shipment) was 229 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium of the US West Coast (September shipment) was 202 cents/bushel, up 5 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium of Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 270 cents/bushel, up 7 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2] - As of the week of July 23, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 tons of 24/25 - year soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 2743.16 tons. The local oil mills purchased 74.57 tons, and the export industry purchased 4.2 tons. In addition, Argentine farmers sold 4.3 tons of 25/26 - year soybeans, bringing the cumulative sales to 48.95 tons. The local oil mills purchased 4.3 tons, and the export industry purchased 0 tons. The total soybean sales of all years in that week were 84.69 tons, bringing the cumulative sales to 6864.8 tons. As of July 23, the cumulative export sales registration quantity of 24/25 - year soybeans was 803.7 tons, and the cumulative export sales registration quantity of 25/26 - year soybeans was 0 tons [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2) Core Views - Palm oil has short - term support due to positive crude oil and macro sentiment; soybean oil is in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to China - US trade progress [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil's closing price (day session) was 8,982 yuan/ton with a 0.13% increase, and (night session) 8,930 yuan/ton with a - 0.58% decrease; soybean oil's closing price (day session) was 8,240 yuan/ton with a 0.17% increase, and (night session) 8,234 yuan/ton with a - 0.07% decrease; rapeseed oil's closing price (day session) was 9,621 yuan/ton with a 1.36% increase, and (night session) 9,579 yuan/ton with a - 0.44% decrease. Other futures prices and their changes are also presented [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil's trading volume decreased by 111,443 to 500,291 lots, and open interest decreased by 28,345 to 403,926 lots; soybean oil's trading volume decreased by 140,618 to 279,490 lots, and open interest decreased by 5,073 to 506,250 lots; rapeseed oil's trading volume increased by 4,753 to 280,029 lots, and open interest increased by 18,819 to 215,474 lots [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,990 yuan/ton with a 70 - yuan increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,420 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase; the spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 9,610 yuan/ton with a 120 - yuan increase [1] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 8 yuan/ton, soybean oil in Guangdong was 180 yuan/ton, and rapeseed oil in Guangxi was - 11 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 639 yuan/ton, between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 742 yuan/ton, and other spreads are also provided [1] b) Macro and Industry News - On July 30, local time, US President Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 40% tariff on Brazil, bringing the total tariff to 50% [2] - Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach 182.9 million tons, up from 173.5 million tons in the previous year [4] - Heavy rains in western, northern, and central Ukraine have slowed down the harvest progress, leading to a decline in exports and a possible drop in rapeseed production. As of July 25, Ukrainian farmers had harvested about 1 million tons of rapeseed (compared to 3.3 million tons last year) and about 7 million tons of wheat (compared to 17 million tons last year) [4] c) Trend Intensity - Palm oil's trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil's trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is [-2, 2], with different levels of strength defined [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period, with favorable weather in major producing areas, causing some long - positions to leave. CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased month - on - month, and the prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil are weak, increasing the pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures to correct [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil spot supply is abundant, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is crucial for future imported soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually falling, but the spot supply is still sufficient. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, and ICE rapeseed fluctuates narrowly. The uncertainty of imports still supports rapeseed oil prices, which are expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Argentina cuts export tariffs on most agricultural products, including reducing the tariff on sunflower seeds from 7% to 4%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean meal and soybean oil from 31% to 24.5% [2] - The US and the EU reach a major trade agreement, with the EU imposing a unified 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US, lower than the original 30% [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports will decrease by 5.1% in 2025, from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons due to increased domestic consumption [2] - As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China is 1088100 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons or 0.34% compared to last week [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. Some long - positions leave waiting for the result of the new round of US trade negotiations, and CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil faces increased correction pressure due to export decline, production increase, and weak prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and the Sino - US trade negotiation result is crucial for future imports. Palm oil maintains a weak supply - demand pattern and follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is falling, but supply is still sufficient, and the uncertainty of imports supports its price, which is expected to range - bound in the short term [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oils and fats is that prices may correct from high levels, and investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see. For options, after the correction, selling put options or buying call options can be considered [10][11][12] Summary by Section 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the closing price of soybean oil 2509 was 8166, up 92; palm oil 2509 was 9104, up 110; and rapeseed oil 2509 was 9492, up 36. The basis for different regions and varieties showed various trends, with some remaining stable and some having small changes [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 monthly spread for soybean oil was 52, up 8; for palm oil it was 44, up 24; and for rapeseed oil it was 53, unchanged [3] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 938, down 18; the OI - Y spread was 1326; the OI - P spread was 388, down 74; and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70, up 0.09 [3] - **Import Profit**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia & Indonesia had a盘面 profit of - 114, and CNF price was 1065. The FOB price of Rotterdam's rapeseed oil was 1043, with a盘面 profit of - 895 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 29th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 59.1 million tons (compared to 56.3 million tons last week and 109.2 million tons last year); palm oil inventory was 50.7 million tons; rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons (compared to 70.6 million tons last week and 42.9 million tons last year) [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: South American crop expert Dr. Michael Cordonnier maintained the 2025 US soybean yield forecast at 52.5 bushels per acre. The USDA predicted the 2025/26 US soybean yield at 52.5 bushels per acre, the same as last month's forecast and higher than last year's 50.7 bushels per acre. The USDA also predicted the 2025/26 US soybean production at 4.335 billion bushels, lower than last month's forecast and last year's production [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: On July 24, 2025, palm oil futures prices rose more than 1%. As of July 18, 2025 (the 29th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The origin's quotes were stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There was a rumor of one ship purchase. The spot market was stable, and investors can consider buying on dips due to the potential for inventory build - up and the positive macro - environment [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: On July 24, 2025, soybean oil futures prices rose more than 1%. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2305500 tons, and the operating rate was 64.81%. As of July 18, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1091800 tons, a 4.04% increase from last week and a 2.40% increase year - on - year. The basis was stable. With a large arrival of soybeans and high crushing volume, soybean oil is in a phase of inventory build - up, but it is still showing a strong upward trend driven by the overall oil and fat market. Investors can consider buying on dips without over - chasing the high [6][8] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: On July 24, 2025, rapeseed oil futures prices rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 59000 tons, and the operating rate was 15.72%. As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease of 1.1 million tons from last week, still at a historical high but with a continuous marginal reduction. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil was around $1020, and the import profit inversion narrowed to around - 600. The spot market was quiet, and the domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable with a slight decline. Due to more policy disturbances, the single - side price will maintain a wide - range oscillation, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [8] 3. Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Trading**: Short - term, expect oils and fats to correct from high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [10] - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [11] - **Options**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [12] 4. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the basis of different oils in different regions, monthly spreads, cross - variety spreads over different time periods from 2016 - 2025, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, abundant rainfall in the main soybean - producing areas of the US has cooled the weather - speculation sentiment. The upcoming China - US negotiations provide some support to the market, leading to a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. High - frequency data shows a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports since July and a month - on - month increase in production. The news of a significant increase in Indonesia's palm oil exports in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures again. Domestically, soybean oil inventory continues to rise, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is great uncertainty in the medium - and long - term supply of imported soybeans. Attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand overall, and domestic prices mainly follow the external market. For rapeseed oil, domestic spot supply is sufficient, the weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices have continued to fluctuate within a range [5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Malaysia's palm oil production from July 1 - 20 is estimated to increase by 11.24% compared to the same period last month, with an 18.95% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 0.14% decrease in Sabah, a 0.41% increase in Sarawak, and a 0.01% increase in East Malaysia [2] - The Canadian Agriculture and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) has significantly raised the estimated 2024/25 rapeseed production to about 19.19 million tons, up from the previous forecast of 17.85 million tons. The export forecast of old - crop rapeseed has also been raised to 9.5 million tons [2] - Indonesia's palm oil inventory in May decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2.9 million tons. The export volume of palm oil and refined products in May reached 2.66 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from April and a 35.64% increase year - on - year. The crude palm oil production in May was 4.17 million tons, lower than April's 4.48 million tons but 7.2% higher than last year [2] - As of July 1, 2025, the soybean inventory in Argentine factories was 3,515,877 tons, the soybean oil inventory was 283,900 tons, and the soybean meal inventory was 814,862 tons [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the weather in the US soybean - producing areas has reduced weather - speculation sentiment, and the upcoming China - US negotiations support the market, causing a slight rebound in CBOT soybean futures. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased, and the news of Indonesia's export increase in June has pushed up Malaysian palm oil futures [5] - Domestically, soybean oil inventory is rising, but the peak of South American soybean imports has passed, and there is uncertainty in future soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly increased, maintaining a weak supply - demand pattern, and domestic prices follow the external market. Rapeseed oil has sufficient domestic supply, the Canadian rapeseed - growing area has good weather, ICE rapeseed futures have fallen, and rapeseed oil prices are in a range - bound decline [5][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Short-term, it is expected that the prices of edible oils will experience a high-level correction. Investors can consider buying on dips after the correction. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, after the correction, investors can consider selling put options or buying call options [12][13][14] Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2509 contract were 8076, 8926, and 9477 respectively. The price of soybean oil decreased by 16, palm oil increased by 16, and rapeseed oil decreased by 86. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3] - **Monthly Spread Closing Prices**: The 9 - 1 monthly spreads for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 48, 24, and 66 respectively. The changes were +4, -28, and -5 [3] - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was -850 with a change of -32, the OI - Y spread was 1401, and the OI - P spread was 551 with a change of -102. The oil - meal ratio was 2.62 with a change of -0.02 [3] - **Import Profits**: The on - paper profit for 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia was -74, and for Rotterdam's crude rapeseed oil, it was -654 [3] - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: In the 29th week of 2025, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 59.1, 50.7, and 69.5 million tons respectively. Compared with last week and the same period last year, the inventory changes varied [3] Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20, 2025, were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease from the same period last month [5] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of palm oil was 59.14 million tons, a 5.04% increase from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. It is expected to correct in the near future, and investors can consider buying on dips [5] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the national commercial inventory of soybean oil was 109.18 million tons, a 4.04% increase from last week. With a large amount of soybeans arriving in the country and high crushing volume, it may experience a high - level correction in the short term and maintain a volatile trend. Investors can consider buying on dips [6] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 18, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 69.5 million tons, a decrease from last week. The import profit inversion has narrowed. The spot market is sluggish, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. It will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, and investors should continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [10] Part 3: Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Short - term, expect edible oils to correct at high levels. Consider buying on dips after the correction [12] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [13] - **Options Strategy**: After the correction, consider selling put options or buying call options [14] Part 4: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the spot basis, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads of different edible oils over the years, with data sources including Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - Palm oil shows an oscillating and slightly stronger pattern due to multiple factors such as the digestion of inventory highs, positive domestic macro - sentiment, and potential supply reduction in the international market. However, there are uncertainties in production in July - August, and there may be a callback if inventory accumulates more than expected. There are opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels [2][5]. - Soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. With good weather for US soybeans, it currently lacks its own effective drivers and mainly follows the trend of the oil and fat sector. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil in the future [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Last Week's Views and Logic - Palm oil: After the slight increase in inventory in the June MPOB report, the negative impact was digested, and the market started to trade the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. With positive domestic macro - sentiment and a rebound in crude oil, the palm oil 09 contract rose 3.25% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The expectation of improved Sino - US trade relations drove up US soybeans, which improved the weak reality of domestic soybean oil. But its fundamentals were still not as strong as palm oil. The soybean - palm oil spread shrank significantly, and the soybean oil 09 contract rose 2.18% last week [1]. This Week's Views and Logic Palm Oil - Fundamental situation: The negative impact of the slight increase in June inventory has been digested, and there are no new effective negatives. The market is trading the de - stocking market in the second half of the year. The production increase rate in Malaysia from June - August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July - August may be lower than the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and Malaysia may still de - stock in July. In Indonesia, the price of palm oil and fruit bunches is high, and the trade sentiment is positive [2]. - Market factors: The US biodiesel policy is expected to reduce the supply of US soybean oil in the international market by at least 1.4 million tons in the 25/26 fiscal year, which may lead to a systemic increase in the international oil and fat market. Palm oil is sensitive to this, and bulls may pre - layout for the second - half - year market [2]. - Risk factors: If Malaysia and Indonesia maintain good yields from July - August, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure from August - September. However, if the crude oil price center rises, the downward space for palm oil will be limited. If the inventory accumulates more than expected from August - September, and there are negative factors such as the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and a decline in crude oil prices, palm oil may still have a callback. Also, be vigilant about the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production and early de - stocking from July - August [2][5]. Soybean Oil - Fundamental situation: The weather speculation for US soybeans is currently weak. Good rainfall in the Midwest is conducive to the growth of US soybeans, and the yield outlook is positive. Domestic soybean oil is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, with rapid inventory accumulation recently [4]. - Potential opportunities: If the purchase of US soybeans for the September shipment is not carried out, there may be an increase in forward crushing profit and Brazilian premium, which may benefit soybean oil. After the high - production period of palm oil in the third - quarter end, if there is a shortage of soybean imports due to Sino - US trade issues, there may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and shrink the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil [4]. 盘面基本行情数据 (Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts) - Palm oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 8,682 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,972 yuan/ton, the lowest was 8,644 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,964 yuan/ton, with a rise of 3.25%. The trading volume was 2,877,519 lots, a decrease of 176,462 lots, and the open interest was 557,055 lots, an increase of 44,257 lots [7]. - Soybean oil main continuous contract: The opening price was 7,986 yuan/ton, the highest was 8,176 yuan/ton, the lowest was 7,958 yuan/ton, the closing price was 8,160 yuan/ton, with a rise of 2.18%. The trading volume was 3,053,981 lots, a decrease of 10,092 lots, and the open interest was 558,184 lots, an increase of 54,927 lots [7]. 油脂基本面核心数据 (Core Fundamental Data of Oils and Fats) - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory may turn to decline. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter. The ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 15 were 621,770 tons, a 6.16% decrease compared to the same period last month [9][11]. - Price spread: The India - Malaysia 24 - degree FOB price spread has slightly declined. The POGO spread has rebounded significantly. The India palm oil import profit has stabilized and rebounded, and the India soybean - palm CNF spread has slightly increased [11][13]. - Import data: The cumulative import of palm oil in the EU in 2025 has decreased by 310,000 tons, and the cumulative import of four major oils and fats has decreased by 590,000 tons [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the oil market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [14]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing price of 2509 for soybean oil was 8042 with a rise of 30; for palm oil, it was 8722 with a rise of 14; for rapeseed oil, it was 9470 with a rise of 66. The spot basis and its changes varied by region for each oil [3]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The 9 - 1 month - to - month spread for soybean oil was 42 with a fall of 4, for palm oil it was 18 with a rise of 2, and for rapeseed oil it was 72 with a rise of 4 [3]. - **Cross - Variety Spreads**: For the 09 contract, the Y - P spread was - 680 with a rise of 16, the OI - Y spread was 1428 with a rise of 36, the OI - P spread was 748 with a rise of 52, and the oil - meal ratio was 2.70 with a rise of 0.01 [3]. - **Import Profits**: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a negative profit of - 208 for the 8 - month ship - period, with a CNF price of 1045. The European rapeseed oil had a negative profit of - 796 for the 8 - month ship - period, with an FOB price of 1026 [3]. - **Weekly Commercial Inventories**: As of the 28th week of 2025, soybean oil inventory was 104.9 million tons, palm oil was 56.3 million tons, and rapeseed oil was 70.6 million tons [3]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From July 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit increased by 17.95%, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.17%, and production increased by 17.06% [5]. - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 56.3 million tons, a 5.21% increase from the previous week. The import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to fluctuate, and buying on dips can be considered [5]. - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 104.94 million tons, a 2.91% increase from the previous week. It is expected to fluctuate as it enters a phased inventory - building period [6]. - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: As of July 11, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 70.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil import profit deficit narrowed. It is expected to have large - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to ship - buying and policy changes [6][9]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Short - term, the oil market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [14]. - **Arbitrage**: For the YP09 spread, partial profit - taking can be considered, and when it widens, shorting at high levels can be considered again [14]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 4. Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the spot basis of East - China first - grade soybean oil, South - China 24 - degree palm oil, East - China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various spreads and month - to - month spreads [13][16][19]