Core Insights - Gold is a global safe-haven asset, and its price fluctuations are closely related to U.S. inflation data. Understanding the linkage between inflation indicators and the gold market can help investors grasp market dynamics [1] Group 1: Key Inflation Indicators - The U.S. inflation monitoring system consists of three main indicators: 1. Consumer Price Index (CPI): Reflects changes in prices of consumer goods and services, directly impacting purchasing power. A sustained rise in CPI often indicates increased inflation pressure and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets [3] 2. Producer Price Index (PPI): Monitors prices of raw materials and intermediate goods in the production sector, typically serving as a leading indicator for CPI. An increase in PPI usually gradually transmits to the consumer end, indirectly affecting gold market sentiment [3] 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE): Covers a broader range of consumer behavior data, making it an important reference for Federal Reserve policy-making due to its flexible statistical methods [3] Group 2: Inflation's Impact on Gold Prices - The influence of inflation data on the gold market operates through multiple mechanisms [5] Group 3: Investment Strategy Recommendations - During inflation data release periods, investors should pay attention to: 1. Real interest rate effect: When inflation growth exceeds nominal interest rates, real interest rates decline, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting gold prices [7] 2. Expectation volatility effect: Market speculation prior to data release can lead to gold sell-offs if CPI exceeds expectations, while underperforming data may stimulate safe-haven buying [7] 3. Policy transmission effect: The Federal Reserve adjusts monetary policy based on inflation; persistent inflation may delay interest rate cuts, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but long-term stagflation risks still provide support [7] Group 4: Monitoring and Analysis - Investors should monitor the release schedule of CPI, PPI, and PCE data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Department of Commerce [8] - Historical data analysis and market reaction patterns should be examined for regularity [10] - Establishing a two-way trading mindset can help mitigate risks from data exceeding expectations [10] - Choosing trading platforms with robust risk control mechanisms is advisable [10]

Core Insights - Tokyo's consumer price index (CPI) excluding fresh food rose by 3.6% year-on-year in May, surpassing April's increase of 3.4% and exceeding economists' median forecast of 3.5%, marking the largest increase since January 2023 [1] Economic Factors - The CPI increase is influenced by policy-related factors, including the waning impact of last year's tuition fee reductions and the implementation of high school subsidy measures that are only applicable in Tokyo [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging trade-off between rising inflation and increasing unemployment, indicating a cautious approach to policy adjustments in the coming months [1][5]. Economic Conditions - Recent indicators suggest that economic activity continues to expand at a robust pace, despite fluctuations in net exports [3]. - The unemployment rate has stabilized at low levels, and the labor market remains strong, although inflation rates have been rising [3]. - Inflation has eased since its peak in 2022 but remains a concern, with risks of acceleration due to new trade barriers [3][4]. Inflation Concerns - Participants in the meeting expressed concerns that inflation could be more persistent than expected, with some companies potentially using the price environment to raise prices [3][4]. - There is a risk of upward pressure on prices, which could contribute to inflation [3][4]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is currently viewed as "roughly balanced," with low layoffs, but some companies are beginning to limit or pause hiring due to increasing uncertainty [3][4]. - Officials have downplayed the labor market's role as a primary driver of inflation [4]. Financial Market Volatility - There has been increased volatility across asset classes, with unusual patterns observed, such as falling stock prices alongside rising long-term Treasury yields and a depreciating dollar [4]. - This divergence may indicate deeper shifts that could have long-term economic implications [4]. Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve may face difficult decisions if inflation proves to be more persistent while growth and employment prospects weaken [5]. - A cautious approach is deemed appropriate until the impacts of government policy changes on the economy become clearer [5]. Future Projections - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for June 17-18, where new forecasts for inflation, employment, and economic growth will be presented [7]. - Current expectations suggest that the Fed will maintain policy rates in June and July but may consider rate cuts in September and December [7]. - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, a preferred inflation measure, is anticipated to remain stable, complicating the Fed's decision-making on interest rates [7].

路透调查：预计美国2025年消费者价格指数（CPI）将为3.1%，2026年为2.8%，而在四月份的预测中分 别为3.2%和2.9%。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that consumer prices in Dubai increased by 2.31% year-on-year in April, marking the slowest growth since August 2023 [1] - In March, the consumer price index (CPI) had a year-on-year increase of 2.79%, showing a deceleration in inflation [1] - Month-on-month, prices rose by 0.29% in April [1]

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View of the Report**: The night - session prices of both crude oil and methanol rose. Crude oil prices were affected by US CPI data, inventory changes, and strategic reserve adjustments. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish, with开工 load and inventory conditions influencing its price [3] Futures Market Crude Oil - The previous day's closing prices of SC near - month, SC next - month, WTI near - month, WTI next - month, Brent near - month, and Brent next - month were 479.5, 470.5, 61.96, 61.53, 66.60, and 66.10 respectively. The price changes were - 2.8, - 2.1, 0.90, 0.95, 1.61, and 1.55, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.58%, - 0.44%, 1.47%, 1.57%, 2.48%, and 2.40% [2] - The trading volumes were 77,046, 52,260, 290,296, 223,289, 417,955, and 270,581 respectively, and the open interests were 15,073, 24,340, 200,444, 280,659, 494,806, and 422,865 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 2650, 863, - 18975, 9999, - 32629, and - 513 respectively [2] - The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, and Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 9.0, 470.5, 33.7, 0.3, 3.10, and 0.50 respectively, with previous values of 9.7, 182.6, 43.0, 14.7, 3.46, and 0.44 respectively [2] Methanol - The previous day's closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 2354, 2380, and 2291 respectively. The price changes were 20.0, 42.0, and 21.0, with percentage changes of 0.86%, 1.80%, and 0.93% respectively [2] - The trading volumes were 52,758, 990, and 766,446 respectively, and the open interests were 163,172, 3,319, and 764,051 respectively. The changes in open interests were 6087, - 542, and 6569 respectively [2] - The spot prices in the port (in US dollars), East China, North China, and South China were 260, 2465, 2230, and 2395 respectively, with price changes of 3, 10, 5, and 13 respectively [2] Market Commentary and Strategy Crude Oil - The night - session oil prices continued to rise. The US April CPI increased by 2.3% year - on - year, and the month - on - month data turned from - 0.1% to 0.2%, lower than the market expectation of 2.4% [3] - The API data showed that last week, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 4.287 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.374 million barrels, distillate inventories decreased by 3.675 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 850,000 barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve increased by 500,000 barrels to 39.96 million barrels [3] Methanol - The night - session price of methanol rose by 2.1%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 75.99%, a decrease of 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous period [3] - As of May 8, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants was 75.65%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points compared to the previous period and 5.77 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - As of May 8, the coastal methanol inventory was 619,000 tons (at a historical low), an increase of 1,000 tons or 0.16% compared to April 30, and a decrease of 0.75% year - on - year. The estimated available methanol supply in the coastal area was around 212,000 tons [3] - According to incomplete statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the expected arrival volume of imported methanol ships from May 9 to May 25 is between 700,000 and 710,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be short - term bullish [3]

Group 1 - The international silver price is currently trading above $33.00, showing a bullish trend with a 1.24% increase from the opening price of $32.59 [1] - The highest price reached during the day was $33.08, while the lowest was $32.51, indicating volatility within the trading range [1] - Technical indicators suggest a bearish trend for silver, with significant downward pressure observed as the price broke through key support levels [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April is expected to remain at a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI also stable at 2.8% [2] - Analysts are monitoring the "super core inflation" metric, which has dropped to 2.9%, the lowest in four years, indicating potential easing of inflationary pressures [2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June has decreased significantly, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding monetary policy [2]

多数预测人士表示，美国劳工统计局周二发布的报告将显示上月对中国和其他国家加征的惩罚性关税的初步影响。影响可能有限，因为上月美国货架上的许 多进口商品是在新关税生效前运抵美国的。 美国四月份通胀预计将加速 经济学家Anna Wong等人在周一的一份报告中写道，"玩具、鞋类和服装等中国进口密集型CPI类别可能会出现温和通胀。零售商发现，在不导致需求大幅下 降的情况下，很难转嫁价格上涨——尽管他们仍会尝试。如果这种效应占上风，那么关税的净影响将不像普遍认为的那样具有通胀性。" 展望未来，预测人士仍在评估美中两国最近达成的暂时降低对方产品关税的协议。彭博经济研究写道，这可能会导致一个"追赶期"，即零售商急于补充库 存，而美国货架上的商品稀缺，这可能会推高消费者价格。 智通财经APP注意到，美国4月份通胀可能加速，此前一个月曾意外降温，尤其是对中国商品加征的关税开始对物价产生影响。 根据对经济学家的调查得出的预测中值，消费者价格指数(CPI)料较3月份上涨0.3%，前月为下降。根据普遍预测，剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别的核心指 标也以类似的速度上升。 美国银行经济学家估计，4月份不包括食品和能源在内的商品通胀上升0.1 ...

Market Performance - The three major US stock indices continued to rise, with the Dow Jones up 1.02%, Nasdaq up 1.21%, and S&P 500 up 1.15% as of the report [1] - Apple shares fell nearly 4% as CEO Tim Cook estimated an increase of $900 million in costs due to tariffs [1] - Nvidia shares rose nearly 2% as the company resumed custom chip development following US export regulations [1] - Popular Chinese concept stocks saw a general increase, with the three-times leveraged FTSE China ETF rising over 10% and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 2.7% [1] - Alibaba and JD.com both rose nearly 4%, while XPeng Motors increased over 6.5% and Kingsoft Cloud rose over 7% [1] Employment Data - In April, the US non-farm payrolls increased by 177,000, exceeding the forecast of 138,000 and down from the previous value of 228,000 [4] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, matching market expectations [4] - Average hourly earnings in April grew by 0.2% month-over-month, below the expected growth of 0.3% [4] Trade Relations - The US confirmed that auto parts manufactured in Canada and Mexico will be exempt from a 25% tariff as part of the USMCA, effective May 3 [6] - The US Chamber of Commerce urged the Trump administration to implement a tariff exemption mechanism to prevent economic downturn and protect small businesses, but the White House rejected the request [7] - The US is actively communicating with China regarding trade talks, emphasizing the need for the US to show sincerity by correcting unilateral tariff measures [3]

英国央行副行长：关税可能会抑制经济活动。消费者价格指数（CPI）受到关税影响的程度将取决于其 他国家的行动，目前无法对此表态。 ...