Core Insights - Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a "stable then rising" trend from May to September 2025, with a significant rebound in September due to rising food prices and energy cost adjustments, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [1][4]. Group 1: CPI Trends - The CPI remained relatively low from the second quarter to early third quarter of 2025, but saw a notable increase in September [2]. - In May, the CPI increased by 3.46% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend since the high inflation of 2023, primarily due to improvements in the food supply chain [4]. - By July, the CPI rebounded to 4.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 2.9%, significantly lower than the 11.09% recorded in July 2024, indicating a marked easing of inflationary pressures compared to the previous year [4]. - September's CPI surged to 5.6% year-on-year, marking the highest point in two quarters and ending a two-month decline [4]. Group 2: Drivers of Inflation - Energy prices were a key driver of inflation, with gas costs rising by 29.85% year-on-year and electricity prices increasing by 21.46% in July, contributing over 30% to the CPI [5]. - The Asian Development Bank approved a $130 million loan to support energy sector optimization, which is linked to adjustments in energy prices and domestic distribution system reforms [5]. - Food prices also exhibited seasonal and disaster-related volatility, with fresh vegetable prices soaring by 56% month-on-month in July, contributing 40% to the urban CPI increase, primarily due to supply shortages caused by summer rains [5]. - In September, food prices again became a significant inflation driver, exacerbated by flooding that disrupted crop harvesting and transportation, leading to simultaneous increases in grain and vegetable prices alongside energy price effects [5]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Policy Response - The fluctuations in CPI have significantly impacted livelihoods and business operations, particularly affecting low-income groups who are most vulnerable to rising food and energy prices, thereby diminishing household purchasing power [6]. - Businesses are facing dual pressures from rising raw material and energy costs, with some small and medium enterprises showing signs of production contraction [6]. - The market is closely monitoring the State Bank of Pakistan's (SBP) policy decisions, as the monetary policy committee has maintained the policy rate at 11% for four consecutive meetings to balance inflation control and economic recovery needs [6].

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3% year-on-year in September, surpassing the 2.9% increase recorded in August [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 3% year-on-year in September [1] - The release of the CPI data was delayed by over a week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown, which has now entered its fourth week [1] Economic Implications - The September CPI data may be the last significant official economic data available before the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting scheduled for October 28-29 [1] - The ongoing government shutdown may hinder the Labor Statistics Bureau's ability to release the October CPI data as planned [1] - The impact of the government's tariff policies on inflation and the potential effects of delayed or absent key data on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process are critical considerations [1]

Core Points - The December 2025 gold futures price closed at $4,126.90 per ounce on October 24, with a decline of 0.45% and a weekly drop of 2.05% [1] - Both gold and silver prices experienced significant declines, with high volatility persisting in the market [1] - Risk appetite has improved this week, with U.S. stock indices slightly below historical highs, negatively impacting safe-haven precious metals [1] - Following recent record highs, gold has faced substantial selling pressure, with prices dropping over 5% at the beginning of the week, marking the largest mid-week decline in years [1] - Gold ETF holdings have also seen a significant reduction, recording the largest single-day drop in five months [1] - Despite recent declines, gold prices have increased approximately 55% year-to-date, supported by ongoing trade tensions and geopolitical risks [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 3% year-over-year increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September, up from 2.9% in August [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-over-year in September [1] - Recent price trends indicate a potential period of volatility, which may drive speculation in the futures market [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold futures by 5.5% and for silver futures by 8.5% on October 17 [1] - Analysts believe that the substantial gains followed by a delayed correction represent a healthy and inevitable tactical retreat [1] Silver Market - The December silver futures price closed at $48.41 per ounce, with a decline of 0.60% and a weekly drop of 3.38% [2]

Group 1 - The White House announced that due to Congress's failure to pass a temporary funding bill, critical data collection has been hindered, potentially leading to "devastating" economic consequences [1] - The government shutdown has entered its fourth week, marking the second-longest shutdown in U.S. history, with approximately 700,000 federal employees either furloughed or working without pay [1] - The core issue of the government shutdown stems from a stalemate between the two parties over healthcare benefits, preventing the passage of the temporary funding bill [1] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for September was released to allow the Social Security Administration to calculate cost-of-living adjustments for millions of retirees and other beneficiaries, despite the ongoing government shutdown [1] - The CPI report is a crucial reference for the Federal Reserve in determining interest rate policies, with traders increasing bets on two more rate cuts by the end of the year following the September CPI data release [2]

Core Insights - In September, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in August [1] - The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 3% year-on-year in September [1] - Gasoline prices were a significant contributor to inflation, rising by 4.1% in September [1] Economic Data Summary - The month-on-month CPI increased by 0.3% in September, lower than the 0.4% increase in August [1] - The month-on-month core CPI rose by 0.2%, down from 0.3% in August [1] - The release of the CPI data was delayed by over a week due to the ongoing federal government shutdown [1]

Core Insights - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3% month-over-month in September, with a year-over-year increase of 3% before seasonal adjustment [1] - The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and also showed a year-over-year increase of 3% before seasonal adjustment [1] Summary by Category - **CPI Data** - September CPI increased by 0.3% month-over-month [1] - Year-over-year CPI growth stands at 3% before seasonal adjustment [1] - **Core CPI Data** - Core CPI increased by 0.2% month-over-month [1] - Year-over-year core CPI growth is also 3% before seasonal adjustment [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the GBP/USD pair experienced a decline despite a surprising increase in UK retail sales, which rose by 0.5% in September against an expected decrease of 0.2% [1] - The focus is now shifting towards the upcoming UK PMI and US CPI data, with the market awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index for September [1] - The GBP/USD pair has been trading in a narrow range around 1.3350, with four consecutive days of negative closing, indicating a prevailing bearish trend [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis shows that GBP/USD is trading around 1.3348, slightly lower than the opening price of 1.3351, indicating a lack of significant daily movement [2] - The short-term trend remains bearish as the spot price is below the declining moving averages, with the 20-period EMA at 1.3368, 50-period EMA at 1.3381, and 100-period EMA at 1.3398 [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at the moving averages, while key support levels are at 1.3292, 1.3244, and 1.3196-1.3200, which coincide with Fibonacci retracement levels [2]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. is expected to rise for the second consecutive month in September, with a projected increase of 0.4% from August, driven by higher gasoline prices and tariff-related costs on clothing, beef, and coffee [1][1][1] - Year-over-year, the CPI is estimated to increase by 3.1%, marking the highest level in 16 months, while the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year [1][1][1] - Economists predict that consumers will bear up to 60% of the total tariff costs over the next six months, as companies gradually pass on costs while sacrificing hiring [1][1][1] Inflation Trends - Inflation in the services sector, particularly rent, may cool down, potentially offsetting the impact of rising goods prices [1][1][1] - Despite the strengthening inflation, the Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next week [1][1][1] Data Collection Concerns - The CPI report is released during a government shutdown, raising concerns about the quality of October's data due to disruptions in data collection and resource pressures on the Bureau of Labor Statistics [1][1][1]

Core Insights - The focus of Wall Street is on the upcoming September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report due to the impact of the government shutdown, which has led to a lack of key economic data, increasing the potential for market volatility with any deviations from expectations [1][5]. Market Expectations - Analysts expect the September CPI data to show a month-over-month increase of 0.4%, consistent with August's growth, and a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, slightly higher than August [4]. - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, is also anticipated to remain stable with a month-over-month increase of 0.3% and a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, potentially marking the highest level since January [4]. Investor Sentiment - The absence of complete economic data has heightened investor reliance on the CPI report, which is seen as a critical indicator of market sentiment [3]. - Despite the uncertainty caused by the government shutdown, investors remain cautiously optimistic, with major stock indices near historical highs, although geopolitical uncertainties and fluctuating tariff situations continue to be a concern [5]. Federal Reserve Implications - The CPI report is crucial for market reactions and Federal Reserve policy decisions, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting unless the CPI data significantly exceeds expectations [6].

Market Overview - The futures market shows a bullish sentiment with 65 contracts rising and 14 contracts falling today, indicating increased trading activity in upward-moving commodities [2] - Significant increases were observed in the prices of coking coal (+5.14%), coke (+4.21%), lithium carbonate (+4.17%), crude oil (+4.05%), and fuel oil (+3.42%) [5] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in rapeseed (-1.22%), palm oil (-1.0%), and soybean oil (-0.7%), likely due to increased bearish pressure or negative fundamentals [6] Capital Flow - The most significant capital inflows were into the CSI 1000 (+7.413 billion), CSI 500 (+3.16 billion), and CSI 300 (+3.043 billion), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - The largest capital outflows were from gold (-1.741 billion), soybean meal (-553 million), and silver (-379 million), suggesting notable withdrawals from these commodities [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were seen in lithium carbonate (+18.66%), coking coal (+14.44%), and CSI 1000 (+11.70%), indicating new funds entering these markets [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were recorded in lead (-12.28%), tin (-13.84%), and industrial silicon (-21.09%), suggesting potential exits by major funds [11] Key Events - In September, the total electricity consumption in China increased by 4.5% year-on-year, with the total reaching 888.6 billion kWh [12] - Domestic soda ash manufacturers reported a total inventory of 1.7021 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 thousand tons from the previous week [12] - Analysts suggest that Indonesia's B50 biodiesel blending policy may be delayed until 2027 due to funding constraints and unfavorable price differentials [13] Industry Insights - The urea industry is experiencing a significant decline in operating rates, with new high inventory levels reported [14] - As of October 23, rebar production has increased, while both factory and social inventories have decreased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [15] - Glass inventory has reached a three-month high, with a notable increase in stock levels across most regions [15] Future Focus - Upcoming data releases include U.S. initial jobless claims and September CPI, which are expected to influence market sentiment and economic outlook [17][18]