| | 1、 据阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE） ，大豆播种工作接近尾声，已完成预计播种面 | | --- | --- | | | 积的99.5%，仅剩北部农耕区有待推进。截至1月28日，大豆作物状况评级良好占比47%(上周值 | | 行业 | 53%，去年同期值24%)，正常占比37%（上周值34%，去年同期51%），一般或较差占比16%(上周值 | | 信息 | 13%，去年同期值25%)。2、印尼贸易部周五公布的公告显示，印尼已将2月份毛棕榈油参考价格定 | | | 为每吨918.47美元，略高于1月份的每吨915.64美元。新的参考价格意味着2月份毛棕榈油的出口 | | | 税将维持在每吨74美元。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收跌，根据CONAB数据截至1月24日，巴西大豆收割率为6.6%，上周为 | | | 2.3%，去年同期为3.2%，五年均值为7%。美国环保署将很快发布关于生物燃料的最终法规，其中 | | | 包括小型炼油厂豁免政策。生物燃料政策即将明朗化提振需求预期，但由于巴西收割工作现阶段 | | | 持续进行，收割压力逐步加大使得美豆期价出现回落。国内方面，连粕跟随外盘走 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 白旭宇 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面，1月收盘棕榈油2605合约9240元/吨，环比上涨656元，涨幅7.64%；1月收盘豆油2605合约 8282元/吨，环比上涨420元，涨幅5.34%；1月收盘菜油2605合约9380元/吨，环比上涨293元，涨幅 3.22%。现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价格9170元/吨，环比上涨600元/吨，涨幅7.0%，现货基差P05- 70，环比下跌56元；天津地区一级豆油现货8510元/吨，环比上涨260，涨幅3.15%，现货基差 Y05+228，环比下跌160；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160元/吨，环比上涨330元，涨幅3.36%，现货 基差OI05+780，环比上涨37。 棕榈油供需 供应方面，MP0B数据显示马来西亚12月毛棕榈油产量较前月减少5.46%至182.98万吨，高于市场预期。 SPPOMA：2026年1月1-25日马来西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少15.28%，出油率环比上月同期增加 0.11%，产量环比上月同期减少14.81%。钢联数据统计截至1 ...

豆油：美豆题材不足，高位震荡为主 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 二 〇 二 六 年 度 2026 年 02 月 01 日 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，前高压力调整 上周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：月初 MPOB 报告兑现利空落地、B50 风险初现后基本面几无新增利空，同时美国生柴政策趋 近落地、印尼印度加税等炒作话题频发，寒潮、地缘等问题发酵带动原油价格上行，马来逐步兑现 1 月减 产，棕榈油季节性做多情绪高涨，但本轮上涨主要是能源带动及年前题材炒作为主，基本面无明显改善， 因此在前高位置阻力较大回落，最终棕榈油 05 合约周涨 3.63%。 豆油：缺乏南美天气炒作，美豆上方驱动有限，跟随油脂板块上行为主，同时油粕比偏多交易思路强 化，豆油 05 合约周涨 2.35%。 本周观点及逻辑： 棕榈油：在经历了近两个月的筑底后，棕榈油终于在一季度迎来了短暂的多因素共振下的流畅上涨窗 口。本轮上涨始于宏观资金关注商品周期轮动、MPOB 利空落地后入场，B50 年内悲观情绪充分消化、远期 需求逻辑与产量缠绕无法即时交易，马来高频产量及出口数据暗示去库进程良好、盘面重回逢 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 30 日 豆粕：Safras & Mercado：虽然今年巴西大豆产量有望创下历史最高纪录， 但农民们仍然对出售大豆犹豫不决。由于大豆供应预期充足，豆价低迷，在一个 月内，大豆价格下跌了高达 10 雷亚尔/袋，目前农户的销售速度依然缓慢，这种 环境可能导致大豆利润进一步下滑。迄今为止种植户仅预售了 30.3%的新豆，上 年同期为 39%，过去五年均值为 41.1%。USDA 出口销售：截至 2026 年 1 月 22 日， 2025/26 年度（始于 9 月 1 日），美国对中国（大陆地区）大豆出口量为 351.5 万吨，低于去年同期的 1777.2 万吨。当周美国对中国装运 82.85 万吨大豆。 2025/26 年度迄今美国对中国已销售但未装运的大豆为 965.4 万吨，去年同期 244.4 万吨。 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、国粮中心、 McDonald Pelz、金十期货网站。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 12 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Positive Outlook (★★★)**: Soybean No. 1, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Slightly Positive Outlook (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall performance of agricultural products futures is affected by multiple factors including macro - economic trends, supply - demand dynamics, and international relations. Different varieties show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Soybean No. 1 - The main contract of domestic soybeans has increased in positions and risen strongly. The re - inflation trading of commodities has a spill - over effect. The spot market is stable, with tight supply but improved marginal supply from policy auctions. Demand may improve marginally with the approaching festival [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - Drought in Argentina and a weak US dollar have led to a bottom - oscillating and slightly stronger trend in US soybeans. China has completed a high proportion of soybean purchases for 2 - 3 month shipments. Attention should be paid to Brazilian soybean harvest and Canadian rapeseed imports which may impact domestic soybean meal prices. Short - term bottom - oscillating pattern is expected [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The overall strength of commodities and re - inflation trading have a spill - over effect. Due to multiple positive drivers, they are more favored. The oil - meal ratio has fallen back, and the palm oil has performed more strongly. High - frequency data shows an improvement in palm oil's supply - demand. Indonesian policies and the rise of RIN prices in the US are beneficial for the prices [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products have generally risen. Domestic coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed crushing, and there is support from pre - Spring Festival stocking. Geopolitical factors and US biofuel policies are positive, but imports are expected to be more relaxed after March, limiting the short - term rebound space [6] Corn - Spot prices in Northeast China and North Ports are stable. Some Shandong deep - processing enterprises have raised purchase prices. The Dalian corn futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures have continued to decline, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. With the approaching Spring Festival, there is an acceleration of slaughter. There is a possibility of a second bottom - hitting in pig prices in the medium - to - long term [8] Eggs - The egg futures have continued to be weak. The spot price is stable, but there is a risk of a decline after the festival. The futures price reflects the expected weakening of the spot market, and the improved profit has increased the pressure on the 2026 far - month contracts. However, there is still a basis for egg prices to strengthen in the first half of 2026 [9]

油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆粕：ANEC：2026 年 1 月份巴西大豆出口量估计为 323 万吨，比去年同期 的 112 万吨增长 188%，创下历史同期最高纪录。预计 2026 年巴西大豆出口量将 达到创纪录的 1.12 亿吨。2025 年全年巴西大豆出口量为 1.0873 亿吨，较 2024 年的 9729 万吨增长 11.8%，也超过了 2023 年的前历史峰值 1.013 亿吨。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现 ...

【豆油&棕榈油】 今日商品整体表现偏强,宏观方面大宗商品再通胀交易呈现扩散状态,对豆油棕榈油也有一定的溢出效应,由 于油脂驱动偏多，因此更受到青睐。美豆走强，美元偏弱以及市场担心阿根廷大豆产区温度偏高，豆粕也呈现 反弹状态，油粕比冲高回落，豆棕价差下跌，棕榈油表现更为强势。棕榈油高频数据显示供需面边际转好。另 外印尼方面的种植园国有化政策,利于增强政策的定价权。美豆油方面RIN价格继续上涨,利于美国生物质柴油 行业利润转好，利于支撑美豆油价格。2026年气象模型预计夏季发生厄尔尼诺概率大，总体来看，利于油脂表 现偏强。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | | | | '/ V SDIC FUTURES | | 2026年01月29日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 標｜油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 ...

油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 豆粕：CONAB：巴西 2025/26 年度大豆收获进度为 6.6%，高于一周前的 2.3%， 去年同期 3.2%，五年同期均值 7.0%。马托格罗索的大豆收获进度为 19.7%，一 周前 6.4%，去年同期 3.6%，五年均值 18%。帕拉纳州的大豆收获进度为 3%，一 周前 2%，去年同期 10%，五年均值 6.8%。作物专家：近日阿根廷气温飙升至接近 40 摄氏度，主要农业区急需降雨，但是预计要到 2 月份才能迎来显著降水。由 于天气担忧，其将阿根廷大豆产量预估下调 200 万吨至 4700 万吨。预测巴西大 豆产量将达到 1.79 亿吨，高于此前预测的 1.78 亿吨。不过其强调了巴西大豆 作物未来仍面临风险，高温干旱天气可能会影响作物产量。 Mysteel 农产品团队预估，2026 年 2 月份国内全样本油厂大豆到港 77 船， 共计约 500.50 万吨（本月船重按 6.5 万吨计），本月到港包含部分储备轮换豆。 此外，根据船期及调研初步预估，2026 年 3 月预计 480 万吨，4 月 950 万吨。 近月 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 油粕日报：美国 45Z 生物燃料政策加快落地 近月供应仍然存在一定缺口，但是相对去年缺货的极端情况预估发生概率偏 小，对于春节前后现货节奏仍然不清晰，近月豆粕预估震荡偏强运行，而远月合 约因为美国生物燃料政策加快落地而略微走强，美国生物燃料政策可能某种程度 弱化美豆的过剩，但是无法提供长期的向上驱动，南美大豆丰产带来的压力仍然 较大。建议现货头寸较多的考虑利用价格反复洗基差，盘面宽幅震荡看待。 油脂：消息人士：在加拿大总理卡尼本月初访问北京后，中国进口商已签约 采购多达 10 船加拿大油菜籽。贸易商表示，此次采购的加拿大油菜籽将于 2 月 至 4 月之间发货。每船约 6.5 万吨，共计约 65 万吨，相当于中国 2024 年油菜籽 进口量的 10%以上，约占 2025 年进口总量的 26%。 南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2026 年 1 月 1-25 日马来 西亚棕榈油单产环比上月同期减少 15.28%，出油率环比上月同期增加 0.11%，产 量环比上月同期减少 14.81%。 美生物燃料政策加快落地为美豆油带来显著支撑，而从马棕的产量和出口数 据看仍然在去库存周期 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. Brazilian soybean harvesting rate reached 2.3% as of January 17th. Positive Sino - US talks boosted expectations for US soybean exports. The upcoming biofuel policy from the US EPA also lifted demand expectations, leading to a rebound in US soybean futures prices. However, high domestic soybean meal inventories and expected high - yield in South America will continue to pressure prices [3] - Oils and fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong, with palm oil leading the increase. Malaysia's palm oil exports were strong in January, and production decreased month - on - month. With the reduction of Malaysian palm oil tariffs, future export expectations improved. Malaysian palm oil entered a destocking cycle during the production - reduction season, which supported palm oil prices. The upcoming US biofuel policy details are expected to support soybean oil. Tight rapeseed oil supply will continue to support prices, and short - term oils and fats are expected to remain strongly volatile [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The price changes were 32, 146, and - 19, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 1.61%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures, the closing prices were 2766 and 2410, with changes of - 3 and 10, and percentage changes of - 0.11% and 0.42% respectively. The peanut futures price was 8844, with a change of 26 and a percentage change of 0.29% [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changed from 16 to 22, the P9 - 1 spread of palm oil changed from 42 to 104. The M9 - 1 spread of soybean meal changed from - 47 to - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread of rapeseed meal changed from 64 to 69. The M - RM09 spread was 566, and the M/RM09 ratio was 1.25 [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4172 ringgit/ton, 1068 cents/bu, 54.40 cents/lb, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were 51.0, 7.5, 0.6, and - 0.2, with percentage changes of 1.24%, 0.71%, 1.10%, and - 0.07% respectively [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The spot prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8700 and 8780 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00% and 0.23%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil were 9170, with a percentage change of 1.55%. The spot prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 10130 and 10150, with percentage changes of 1.40% and 0.89% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: The spot basis for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil was 442 and 522 respectively. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil was - 68. The spot basis for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil was 804 and 824. The spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 280 to - 260 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - The import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 184 (previously - 121), near - month US Gulf soybeans was - 184 (previously - 205), near - month Brazilian soybeans was 51 (previously 17), near - month US West soybeans was - 150 (previously - 168), near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil was 634 (previously 655), and near - month Canadian rapeseed was 509 (previously 484) [2] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 26,210, 948, and 625 respectively. For soybean meal, it was 32,428. For rapeseed meal and peanuts, it was 0. The previous values were 26,525, 1,148, 625, 32,428, 0, and 0 respectively [2] Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil production from January 1 - 25, 2026: The yield per unit decreased by 15.28% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.11% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 14.81% month - on - month. In Argentina, the corn sowing progress was 93.1%, and the soybean sowing progress was 96.2%. The US Department of Agriculture predicted Argentina's corn production at 53 million tons and soybean production at 48.5 million tons [3]