美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

豆粕走升,白糖反弹 一、农产品板块综述 豆粕强劲走高,受到美豆强势提振,国内养殖需求旺盛,下游企 业豆粕提货积极,豆粕库存累积缓慢,支撑豆粕走高,走势偏强。白 糖反弹,外盘低位反弹以及国内夏季消费旺季到来皆支撑白糖反弹上 扬,后市或有继续回升空间。油脂板块震荡有升,市场继续消化美生 柴政策消息的影响,走势整体维持高位运行特征。 二、品种策略跟踪 (一) 豆粕: 大幅上涨 焦点关注:豆粕2509 合约大幅上涨,创阶段性新高: 1. 美国政府提出的明年和后年生物燃料混合要求高于行业预期, 且包括抑制生物燃料进口的措施,推动美豆油连续涨停,带动美豆期 价持稳上扬,对国内豆类品种有支撑影响。尽管国内油厂开机率持续 高位运行,但得益于终端养殖需求旺盛及豆粕提货积极性良好,豆粕 库存累积进程缓慢。Mysteel 数据显示截至第24周,豆粕库存 41万 吨,环比增幅 7.19%,同比下降 58.79%。豆粕多头买盘积极,增仓推 升行情走高。 2、豆粕主力 2509 合约高位上扬,站上均线系统,技术偏强, 策略上轻仓多单,豆粕2509 合约支撑 3050,阻力 3100。 (二)豆油:震荡上行 焦点关注:豆油主力2509 合 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. biofuel policy has exceeded expectations, raising questions about its impact on the U.S. soybean industry's market share [1] Group 1: U.S. Biofuel Policy - The recent U.S. biofuel policy changes are anticipated to significantly influence the agricultural sector, particularly the soybean market [1] - Analysts are evaluating how these policy adjustments will affect the competitive landscape for U.S. soybeans against global counterparts [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Market responses to the new biofuel policies indicate a potential shift in demand dynamics for soybeans, which could lead to increased prices [1] - Stakeholders are closely monitoring the implications of these policies on both domestic and international soybean markets [1]

油脂：原油冲高回落 油脂涨势放缓 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SHF | HE | E | 数据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 7972.00 | 7960.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 8446.00 | 8436.00 | 10.00 | 0.12% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 9583.00 | 9505.00 | 78.00 | 0.82% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1068.50 | 1.50 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/磅 | 55.11 ...

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 豆粕：大豆供应压力仍存，期价区间震荡 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 16 日 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 朱书颖：从业资格证号：F03120547 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号： F3029146 投资咨询号： Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨： 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 7 安粮期货研究报告 豆粕：短线或区间震荡 一、宏观分析 中 美 会 谈 结 束 ，就 落 实 两 国 元 首 6 月 5 日 通 话 重 要 共 识 和 巩 固 日 内 瓦 经 贸 会 谈 成 果 的 措 施 框 架 达 成 原 则 一 致 。 二、基本面分析 （ 1） 成 本 端 市 场 消 化 利 多 因 素 ， CBOT 大 豆 先 小 幅 反 弹 后 因 生 物 燃 料 政 ...

美豆油继续暴涨5%冲上18个月高点！生物燃料政策"核弹"能否持续引爆行情？ 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/06/16 美国政府周五提议在未来两年内增加炼油厂必须掺入美国燃料组合中的生物燃料数量，这主要是受生物质柴油授权 的激增推动。此举还包括阻止生物燃料进口的措施，受到了生物燃料行业的欢迎，该行业已就此问题进行了数月的游 说。 美国国家环境保护局（EPA）周五提议，2026年和2027年的生物燃料掺混总量分别为240.2亿加仑和244.6亿加仑。 相比之下，2025年的掺混要求为223.3亿加仑。 根据可再生燃料标准，炼油商必须在全国燃料供应中掺入大量生物燃料，或从掺入生物燃料的炼油商处购买信用额 度，即RIN。该提案的部分是应对生物质柴油要求的提高。环保局为2026年设定了71.2亿个生物质柴油RIN配额，这是衡 量混合燃料所产生的可交易信用额度数量的标准。 美国国家环境保护局表示，预计这一规定将导致56.1亿加仑的掺混量。2025年生物质柴油的掺混量为33.5亿加仑， 该行业曾抱怨这一数字过低。 石油和生物燃料行业都是华盛顿的主要游说力量，他们对该提案的发布寄予厚望，因为该提案一旦敲定，将决定数 十亿美元燃料和可交易信贷交易的命运。 作为现任特朗普政府就联邦生物燃料 ...

Group 1 - The State Council of China emphasizes the need to leverage the Shanghai Free Trade Zone to implement high-standard economic and trade rules, aiming for deep reforms and high-quality development [1] - The Chinese government plans to assess the existing real estate policies to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market [1] - The People's Bank of China announces a 400 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [7] Group 2 - The stock price of Pop Mart has surged over tenfold in the past year, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities [3] - Several listed companies, including Changlian Co., Yidian Tianxia, and Wanda Film, have recently collaborated with Pop Mart, suggesting a growing trend in the collectibles market [3] - The announcement of a new listing rule in Shenzhen aims to facilitate secondary listings for red-chip companies, enhancing the capital market for tech enterprises [8] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has imposed fines on individuals involved in stock price manipulation, highlighting regulatory scrutiny in the market [5] - The announcement of a profit distribution adjustment by Kweichow Moutai reflects the company's strategic financial management [14] - Dongshan Precision plans to invest up to 5.935 billion yuan in Solstice Optoelectronics to expand its optical communication business [15]

Group 1 - CBOT wheat experienced an intraday increase of 3.0%, reaching 542.5 cents per bushel [1] - The Bloomberg Grain Index rose over 1.8%, hitting a new daily high and approaching 31.08 points [1] - The surge in the grain index was significantly influenced by Trump's biofuel policy proposals, which also led to a notable increase at the opening of the U.S. stock market [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2) Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the domestic soybean market has improved, with short - term soybean futures prices expected to be oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. - The international oil price decline has an impact on the entire oil market. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices of palm oil are expected to be oscillating weaker [7]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating stronger, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating stronger [5]. - **Core Logic**: The combined weather themes in North and South American soybean producing areas have boosted the market's bullish sentiment. The rise in US soybean futures prices has lifted the domestic soybean market. Although there is an expectation of improved supply in the domestic market, the linkage between the domestic and foreign markets has been restored. The short - term soybean futures prices are oscillating stronger, but the rebound space is restricted by supply pressure [5]. b. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: The intraday view is oscillating weaker, the mid - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating weaker [7]. - **Core Logic**: The decline in international oil prices has affected the entire oil market. Southeast Asian palm oil production and demand are both increasing. Whether the exports of Malaysian palm oil can remain strong determines whether the inventory will continue to accumulate. With the rotation in the oil sector, palm oil will receive indirect support from rapeseed oil. The short - term sentiment disturbance in the oil market has increased, and the futures prices are oscillating weaker [7]. c. Other Related Factors - **For Bean Meal 2509**: The influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and stocking demand [6]. - **For Soybean Oil 2509**: The influencing factors are US tariff policy, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. - **For Palm 2509**: The influencing factors involve Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6].