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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-2025-04-02
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-04-02 01:37
Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The report provides short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil futures, all of which are considered to be oscillating and strengthening. It also elaborates on the core logic behind these views for each commodity [6][7][8]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening [6]. - **Core Logic**: The US Department of Agriculture's oilseed crushing monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in February was slightly higher than market expectations, boosting US soybean futures prices. Domestic soybean futures prices follow the upward trend. However, there is an expectation of a weaker domestic supply - demand environment in the future, and risks such as the weakening of the far - month basis and inventory reconstruction should be watched out for. The upward space of short - term soybean meal futures prices is limited [6]. 2. Soybean Oil (Y) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening [8]. - **Core Logic**: The US government plans to raise the biofuel blending target, which drives the soybean oil market sentiment. The US Department of Agriculture's report shows that the US soybean oil inventory at the end of February decreased more than expected year - on - year, supporting the futures prices. Domestic soybean oil futures prices are mainly affected by raw material soybean costs and the linkage with US soybean oil futures prices [8]. 3. Palm Oil (P) - **View**: Intraday view is oscillating and strengthening, medium - term view is oscillating, and the reference view is oscillating and strengthening [9]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, there is no obvious driver for the three major oil futures, and capital attention has declined. The recent improvement in palm oil exports has boosted its futures prices. With the continuous decline of domestic palm oil inventory, trading sentiment has recovered. However, short - term high - frequency data only has a short - term impact on prices, and short - term trading is advisable [9].
全球商品再定价:从生柴政策到对等关税
对冲研投· 2025-03-31 11:15
以下文章来源于CFC商品策略研究 ,作者田亚雄 刘昊 CFC商品策略研究 . 好的研报应该提供打破经验,观念,陈规或惯例的视角,提供自我逻辑审查的意识自觉。阅读体验应该是一次历险,也许是一次漂流,它并不把你带到任 何一个安全的港湾去,但更像是提供一种类似在悬崖边临渊回眸,另做选择的逻辑启发,或自我反讽的邀请。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 田亚雄、刘昊 来源 | 中信建投期货研究发展部 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路研究员 近期市场聚焦在美豆油上,半个月近10%的上涨幅度的驱动来自EPA极有可能会进一步大幅提高生物柴油掺混要求,后续掺混目标范围来 到47.5-55亿加仑。相较于此前预期的33.5亿加仑而言,暗示未来可能有520-800万吨的植物油需求增量。这一量级的增长对于植物油价格 无疑是显著利多,毕竟印尼从B30到B40的实施所引致的百万吨量级增量就足以驱动一轮植物油的快速反弹。 通过提高生物燃料配额,既能安抚农业州选民,又能为石油集团的可再生能源投资提供政策确定性,同时规避国际竞争风险。当前美国中 西部农业州(如爱荷华州、内布拉斯加州)是生物乙醇和生物柴油的重要生产基地,也是特朗普的共和党票仓, ...