5月14日，央行发布最新金融数据，4月末，广义货币(M2)余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。央行表 示，观察货币政策的效果要结合实体经济实际运行状况综合研判。市场权威专家表示，将金融数据与 GDP等实体经济指标进行对比分析，能进一步显现货币政策的效果，更全面地衡量央行货币政策的支持 力度。比如，M2/GDP，已经从2019年末的197%上升到2024年末的232%，5年时间提升了35个百分点。 该专家表示，将M2增速作为货币政策的观测性指标，有其内在合理性，随着金融深化和经济结构转 型，市场研究表明货币总量与经济增长的相关性在减弱，主要发达经济体也都经历过逐步淡化并放弃盯 住总量指标的过程。(第一财经) ...

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while it decreased by 0.1% year-on-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating a moderate recovery in market demand supported by domestic demand expansion policies [1] - The decline in international prices of crude oil and non-ferrous metals such as aluminum, zinc, and copper has exerted downward pressure on domestic prices, contributing to the year-on-year decrease in CPI. However, the core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 0.5%, maintaining stability [1] - Some industrial sectors, such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products, showed a narrowing decline in prices year-on-year, while industries like smart manufacturing and high-end equipment manufacturing experienced price increases [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic policies signal a sustained effort to support economic stability, with measures aimed at stabilizing employment and promoting high-quality development. New policies, including fiscal measures to boost consumption and infrastructure investment, are expected to be introduced soon [2] - The strong demand for holiday tourism is anticipated to further release consumer potential, leading to price increases in related services [2] - In the medium to long term, the ongoing structural transformation and industrial upgrading in the economy are expected to lead to a more balanced supply-demand relationship, with a smoother economic cycle and a moderately loose monetary environment [2]

5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办新闻发布会上宣布下调结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分 点，推出服务消费与养老再贷款，分别增加科技创新和技术改造再贷款与支农支小再贷款额度3000亿 元。总体来看，央行此次再贷款工具量价结合，力度大、支持面广、使用也更为便利，发挥了货币政策 工具总量和结构双重功能。权威专家表示，当前经济循环仍然存在堵点，结构性矛盾较为突出，未来货 币政策需要更多采用结构性工具，支持扩内需，挖掘新动能，助力经济结构转型和产业升级。 结构性货币政策工具利率是人民银行对商业银行提供再贷款的利率。据了解，此次是央行首次全方面下 调各项结构性政策工具利率，既包括支农支小再贷款等长期性工具，也包括碳减排支持工具、科技创新 和技术改造再贷款、保障性住房再贷款、股票回购增持再贷款等阶段性工具。 "结构性降息也是降息，有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励作用。"权威专家指出，截至2025年一季度 末，结构性货币政策工具余额5.9万亿元，是央行重要的基础货币投放渠道。此次降低利率0.25个百分 点，有利于强化对商业银行的政策激励，进一步发挥结构性货币政策工具对商业银行的牵引带动作用， 激励商业银行加强对重大战 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint presented by Fuyao Glass founder Cao Dewang is that the value of real estate is significantly overestimated, with construction costs being only 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per square meter, while prices exceed 10,000 to 20,000 yuan [1] - Cao Dewang argues that high housing prices attract excessive social capital into the real estate sector, hindering the development of the real economy due to a lack of capital inflow [1] - Independent economist Ma Guangyuan counters that dismissing real estate as merely "bricks and cement" overlooks its substantial contributions to GDP and employment, with the sector's contribution to GDP declining from nearly 30% to 22% [3][5] Group 2 - Ma Guangyuan emphasizes that the real estate sector supports over 56 related industries, providing employment for more than 50 million people, and a downturn in the market could lead to increased unemployment [3][5] - He warns that portraying housing as worthless could mislead the public, as housing demand remains rigid, and even renting incurs living costs [5] - The discussion highlights the need for a balanced approach to real estate, avoiding excessive financialization while recognizing its short-term economic contributions [9] Group 3 - Cao Dewang's perspective aligns with the idea that housing prices should reflect true value to avoid economic bubbles, citing that in cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen, the price-to-income ratio is as high as 40 [7] - Ma Guangyuan argues for the importance of maintaining a prosperous real estate market for GDP growth and employment, suggesting that the economy is overly reliant on real estate [7] - The urgent need is to stabilize the real estate market to allow for a gradual transition towards high-end manufacturing and high-tech industries, reducing dependency on real estate investment [9]

科技领域方面，过去几年，国内科学技术领域取得巨大突破，研发投入、研发强度不断提升。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 4月28日，兴证全球基金副总经理、知名基金经理谢治宇亮相2025年度中国投资人峰会。谢治宇表示， 面对当下国内外宏观环境和经济形势，仍能观察到多方面积极转变。 谢治宇表示，我国城投债务比例增速一定程度上得到控制。随着政府债务久期被拉长，债务利率开始明 显下降，"以时间换空间"，推动国内经济结构转型。 行业产能方面，过去几年，上游行业基本处在产能利用率相对饱满的状态，部分中游行业还有产能利用 率偏低的压力。部分行业由于供给约束，慢慢开始改善，并且市场对于控制产能逐渐形成共识，能够有 意识地认为这是影响后续行业持续发展的关键因素之一。 谢治宇表示，国内政策工具箱里还有非常多的工具。过去两年保持定力，现在非常有优势。 谢治宇还提到，之前国内市场承担的更多是企业融资需求，去年开始，更多强调权益市场如何能更好地 从投资角度提供新的可持续范式。这样的转变有利于科技投入。科技行业通过资本市场的融资发展，一 般效果相对较好，能够承担更大的风险和波动。此外，我国居民储蓄长 ...

好投资是信任与认知的双重胜利， 期 待我们始终走在双向奔赴的路上。 姜 诚 一季度市场似乎缺乏清晰的基本面主线，在技术进步的背景下，人工智能和机器人相关领域有不错表现。 因为我们组合中的标的整体价格变化不大，所以整体仓位和结构也变化不大，仅在个别标的价格有显著波 动时进行了"被动"应对。 四月是传统的财报季，叠加贸易战的影响，市场或许会更聚焦于政策对基本面的长中短期影响。但 我们 更专注于为资产进行称重，而非过度关注阶段性波动。我们不会对企业的利润曲线求解一阶导数（利润增 长率）或者二阶导数（增长率的变化率），而是试图对长期分红的现值求解"积分"，所以不太关心增速， 更关心竞争格局和竞争优势的结构性变化。 在结构性变化的维度内，我们的组合有喜有忧，忧的是一些 行业的差竞争格局持续的时间较长，这对长期价值有杀伤；喜的是重点品种的竞争优势在潮水退却后变得 更加明显。简而言之，弱β叠加强α，让我们暂无修订长期结论的必要。对贸易战的前景，很难做出准确 判断，但我们仍有底气，原因有两方面：一是我国完备的产业链和巨大的内需给经济提供了韧性；二是可 运用的政策空间还有很大余量。所以不必急于做判断，后续的操作仍是以多看少动为 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the coal industry [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights two significant divergences in the first quarter economic data: 1) the divergence between GDP growth and electricity consumption growth; 2) the increase in raw coal production while power plant inventories are decreasing. The GDP growth of 5.4% contrasts with a mere 2.5% increase in electricity consumption, primarily due to economic structural transformation and unexpected weather impacts on residential electricity use. Additionally, despite high raw coal production, power plant inventories have declined due to weak power generation demand and structural inventory accumulation at ports and pits [2][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal index (Yangtze) increased by 2.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.98 percentage points, ranking 3rd out of 32 industries. The thermal coal market price as of April 18 is 663 RMB/ton, showing a slight decrease of 2 RMB/ton week-on-week [6][20]. Thermal Coal Market - The report notes that while seasonal demand for coal is weak, the market is expected to stabilize as the negative factors affecting coal stocks are likely to diminish. The report suggests a positive outlook for coal stocks due to high dividend yields and narrowing second-order effects of falling coal prices [6][20]. Coking Coal Market - The coking coal price at Jing Tang Port remains stable at 1380 RMB/ton. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential domestic demand stimulus policies and the sustainability of steel production increases [6][21]. Economic Divergences - The report elaborates on the divergence between GDP growth and electricity consumption, attributing it to structural upgrades in the economy and unexpected weather impacts. The first quarter saw a raw coal production increase of 9.704 million tons (8.1% year-on-year), while power plant inventories decreased by approximately 21.03 million tons since the beginning of the year [7][8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends marginal allocations to long-term stable profit leaders such as China Shenhua (A+H) and Shaanxi Coal, as well as growth-oriented companies like Xinji Energy and Electric Power Investment Energy. It also highlights flexible growth stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining (A+H) and Shanxi Coking Coal [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for a systemic solution to address the "pain of macro consumption suppression" and "insufficient total demand" in China's economy, proposing a transition from an investment-driven model to a consumption-driven one, which requires significant policy and structural reforms [1]. Summary by Sections Introduction - The introduction discusses the historical context of China's economic challenges and the necessity of finding appropriate remedies for total demand insufficiency [8]. Chapter 1: Pain of Consumption Suppression - This chapter outlines the severe consequences of consumption suppression, the challenges of transitioning to a consumption-oriented society, and the deep-rooted causes behind consumption suppression [10]. Chapter 2: Overinvestment Trap - It highlights the unsustainability of investment-driven growth, drawing lessons from historical examples of overinvestment in countries like the Soviet Union and Japan [9]. Chapter 3: The Dilemma of Insufficient Total Demand - The chapter argues that while overcapacity is relative, total demand insufficiency is absolute, and it explores historical efforts to overcome this issue [10]. Chapter 4: Transitioning Fiscal Policy to Promote Consumption - This section discusses the shift from construction-focused fiscal policy to a welfare-oriented fiscal policy, proposing a consumption prosperity plan worth 10 trillion yuan [11]. Chapter 5: Monetary Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - It examines the challenges of transitioning China's monetary policy to support domestic demand expansion, emphasizing the need for new goals and mechanisms [12]. Chapter 6: Deepening Reforms to Increase Resident Income - The chapter identifies the low proportion of disposable income among residents as a critical issue and suggests that income reform is essential for boosting consumption [15]. Chapter 7: Development of the Service Industry - It argues that promoting consumption prosperity must start with the service industry, which has been slow to develop and exacerbates total demand insufficiency [15]. Chapter 8: The Role of the Private Economy - This section discusses how the growth of the private economy is vital for increasing resident income and stimulating consumption [15]. Chapter 9: Creating New Demand through Innovation - The final chapter focuses on how innovation can unlock new demand and drive consumption prosperity [15].

杨帆｜中信证券宏观与政策首席分析师 2025年春季宏观经济展望：蓄势待发 经过三年经济结构转型的阵痛期，地产及其产业链在中国经济的占比从2020年的18%下降到2024年10%-11%，而战 略性新兴产业在经济的占比从2020年的11.7%上升到2024年的14.1%，新旧动能转换已初具成效。2025年两会呈现出 货币政策更加聚焦广义价格体系、财政政策保留合理空间的特点，旨在应对风高浪急的外部形势以及内需偏弱的国内 低通胀环境。我们认为货币政策将通过总量及结构双重工具的支持，改善居民财富效应，带动居民消费需求温和修 复；财政政策适度扩张，一方面着眼于加强社会保障以提高居民边际消费倾向，另一方面着力于化解债务与扩大投 资，发挥有效投资对经济增长压舱石的作用。经过多年的结构调整与创新积累，中国经济正在蓄势待发。考虑到加税 对经济的拖累可能主要在二、三季度体现，结合国内需求运行趋势及库存周期、盈利周期的位置，我们判断2025年 经济将呈现"U"型增长，全年增速有望维持在5%左右。 风险因素：政策执行与落地情况不及预期，美国关税对中国外需影响超预期，居民和企业预期提振幅度不及预期，国 内经济运行不及预期。 经济数据｜ ...