Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC suggests that the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise to 4.8%-5.0% in the second half of 2025 due to increased net supply and other economic factors [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - Recent data indicates that while the U.S. dollar has rebounded, short-term depreciation pressure has not been fully released [1] - The CBO estimates that the "Great Beautiful Act" will increase the federal deficit by approximately $3.4 trillion from 2025 to 2034 [1] - Following the resolution of U.S. debt issues, net issuance of debt may reach around $1.25 trillion between July and September, contributing to upward pressure on Treasury yields [1] Group 2: Market Trends - The U.S. dollar experienced a 13% depreciation during its lowest point this year, which is not particularly significant compared to historical depreciation cycles since 2000 [1] - The report anticipates that the increase in net supply of U.S. Treasuries will lead to a rise in the term premium by 50-60 basis points [1] - It is projected that the U.S. dollar index may decline by 2-3 points as a result of these economic dynamics [1]

Group 1 - US Treasury yields mostly declined on July 21, with the 2-year yield down 3 basis points to 3.85%, the 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.38%, and the 30-year yield down over 6 basis points to 4.94% [1] - The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes narrowed to 53 basis points [1] Group 2 - The Conference Board reported a 0.3% decline in the Leading Economic Index for June, falling to 98.8, which exceeded the Dow Jones forecast of a 0.2% decrease [3] - The Conference Board does not predict a recession but expects significant economic growth slowdown in 2025 compared to 2024, with a projected 1.6% growth in real GDP for this year [3] - Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech scheduled for Tuesday, as other Fed officials remain silent ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting [3] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued $155 billion in two bond offerings on July 21, including $82 billion in 13-week bills and $73 billion in 26-week bills, with an additional $80 billion in 6-week bills scheduled for issuance on Tuesday [5]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank stated that if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell were to be removed, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds could jump by 50 basis points [1] Group 1 - The potential removal of Jerome Powell could lead to significant market reactions, particularly in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed movements with the 10-year yield declining slightly while the 20-year and 30-year yields increased, indicating fluctuations in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Summary by Relevant Categories 10-Year Treasury Yield - The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell by 3.58 basis points to 4.4155% on July 18, with a weekly increase of 0.62 basis points [1] - The yield traded within a range of 4.3915% to 4.4933% during the week, experiencing a notable short-term rally on Tuesday before gradually retreating [1] 2-Year Treasury Yield - The 2-year Treasury yield decreased by 3.54 basis points to 3.8691%, with a cumulative decline of 1.59 basis points for the week [1] - The yield fluctuated between 3.9587% and 3.8564% during the week, showing a significant "n-shaped" movement on Tuesday and Wednesday [1] 20-Year and 30-Year Treasury Yields - The 20-year Treasury yield increased by 3.60 basis points, reaching 4.9807% [1] - The 30-year Treasury yield rose by 3.84 basis points, closing at 4.9875% [1]

两年期美债收益率涨1.28个基点，报3.9045%，北京时间20:30发布美国零售销售数据和就业市场调查周 报时涨至3.9360%刷新日高，随后快速回落并转而跌至3.8834%刷新日低，全天大部分时间交投于3.9% 上方。 周四（7月17日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率跌0.40个基点，报4.4513%，日内交投于 4.4874%-4.4274%区间。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold is regaining attention as a safe-haven asset amid ongoing global inflation, geopolitical tensions, and an uncertain interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with predictions of gold prices reaching $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially $4,000 in mid-2026 [1][3] Group 2 - The outlook for gold in 2025 presents both opportunities and challenges, with a significant shift from speculative to structural long-term investment, as central bank demand remains strong, with an average monthly purchase of 77 tons projected for 2025, significantly higher than the historical average of 17 tons before 2022 [3][4] - The defensive value of gold is being recognized again due to escalating geopolitical risks, as evidenced by a price rebound to $3,355 per ounce amid trade tensions [3][4] Group 3 - Investors face three pressures: a strengthening dollar due to strong labor data and persistent inflation, technical resistance in the gold price around $3,300-$3,330, and the disadvantage of non-yielding assets as high U.S. Treasury yields attract speculative funds [4] Group 4 - The analysis of trading platforms highlights the importance of compliance for fund safety and fair trading, with a focus on a specific platform that offers dual services in London gold contracts and physical gold storage, ensuring transparency and low transaction costs [4][5] Group 5 - For retail investors to profit in the gold market, a systematic trading approach is essential, including starting with low leverage, data-driven decision-making, social learning through copy trading, and defensive asset allocation of 10%-15% in physical gold [5][6] Group 6 - The gold market in 2025 is transitioning from speculation-driven to value-driven, with central bank purchases and geopolitical risks providing dual support for a long-term upward trend, making the current price range a rational window for gold allocation [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the market volatility triggered by Trump's comments regarding the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which was later denied by Trump [2] - The spot gold market experienced significant fluctuations, reaching a high of $3377.53 per ounce and a low of $3319.72 per ounce, ultimately closing at $3347.42 per ounce [2] - Current trading strategies for spot gold suggest a range-bound approach, with a trading range identified between $3335.00 and $3358.00, recommending buying low and selling high within this range [3] Group 2 - The spot silver market is also in a consolidation phase, with a trading range identified between $37.490 and $38.090, suggesting similar high-low trading strategies [5] - If the silver market breaks below the support level of $37.490, it is advised to consider short positions with target prices set between $37.100 and $36.800 per ounce [5] - Conversely, if the market breaks above the resistance level of $38.090, it is recommended to pursue long positions with target prices potentially reaching $38.500 to $38.800 per ounce [6]

有关美国总统特朗普即将解雇美联储主席鲍威尔的消息在7月16日引发市场剧烈波动：长期美债收益率 和通胀预期飙升，股市和美元大幅下跌。随后，特朗普迅速表示自己"极不可能"试图罢免鲍威尔，仍认 为鲍威尔的政策宽松步伐不够快，市场部分回稳。 当前市场普遍认为，特朗普未必会真正落实现有的关税或人事威胁，因此5%的收益率门槛仍具有一定 支撑，尤其是因为短期通胀预期仍处于相对温和水平。虽然5月份两年期盈亏平衡通胀率曾升至约 3.4%，但随着几份通胀数据表现尚可，该指标已回落至2.7%左右。 然而，如果特朗普确实在美联储或贸易方面采取激进行动，通胀预期将被推高，整个收益率曲线也将随 之上移。此外，长期利率对通胀不确定性的反应最为敏感，曲线倾向进一步变陡。不过，若鲍威尔真的 被撤职，引发的市场波动可能更偏向利率下行的风险。 分析师认为，特朗普正在试探罢免鲍威尔的可能性。市场的剧烈反应似乎让他暂时收回了相关言论，但 白宫与美联储之间进一步升级冲突的风险正在上升。 媒体报道，到目前为止，5%的收益率水平一直充当着30年期美债的上限。但如果特朗普真的付诸行 动，解雇美联储主席鲍威尔，或是如近期相关信函中所暗示的那样，对贸易伙伴征收更 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding market expectations and marking the largest increase since February [1] - Core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly below expectations but still higher than the previous value, indicating inflationary pressures [1] - Analysts suggest that the recent rebound in prices is significantly influenced by the U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the increase or threat of increased tariffs on major trading partners [3] Group 2 - Following the inflation data release, there was a call from the U.S. President for a 3% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which sparked criticism regarding interference with the central bank's independence [3] - Market expectations for a rate cut in July have diminished, with a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates, and a reduced likelihood of a cut in September to around 50% [3] - The inflation rebound and cooling rate cut expectations have led to a sell-off in the U.S. bond market, with the 30-year Treasury yield surpassing 5% and the 10-year yield approaching 4.5% [3] Group 3 - The simultaneous decline in U.S. stocks and bonds has put pressure on the dollar, resulting in a rare situation where U.S. stocks, bonds, and the dollar are all under pressure [3] - Analysts warn of the potential risk of a "triple whammy" affecting stocks, bonds, and currency if inflation exceeds expectations, particularly as high valuations in the stock market may face downward adjustments due to slowing growth expectations [3]

Group 1 - The latest US PPI data indicates a cooling in wholesale price index for June, with expectations of a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a 2.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Following the PPI release, US Treasury yields declined across all maturities except for the 4-month short-term debt, with the 2-year yield down by 2.3 basis points to 3.936%, the 10-year yield down by 2.6 basis points to 4.463%, and the 30-year yield also down by 2.6 basis points to 4.992% [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, with a notable drop in service prices offsetting the rise in gasoline prices [3] Group 2 - The core PPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, remained flat compared to May, with the annual rate slowing from 3.2% to 2.6% [3] - The UK inflation rate for June reached 3.6%, exceeding expectations, with the core inflation rate rising to 3.7% [4] - In the Asia-Pacific market, long-term Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield down by 1.7 basis points to 1.573% [4] Group 3 - The US Treasury issued a $65 billion 17-week short-term debt on Wednesday and plans to issue $170 billion in two bond offerings on Thursday, including $90 billion and $80 billion in 4-week and 8-week short-term debts respectively [6]