Core Insights - The ISM's October Services PMI for the U.S. reached 52.4, marking an eight-month high and exceeding market expectations [1] - The new orders index for October rebounded significantly to a one-year high of 56.2, indicating a continued recovery in demand [1] - The October prices paid index rose to 70, the highest in three years, suggesting a rebound in inflationary pressures [1] - Positive employment and services data have dampened market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December, leading to volatility in the bond market [1] Group 1 - The Services PMI indicates a strengthening services sector, with a reading of 52.4 [1] - The new orders index reflects a robust demand recovery, reaching 56.2 [1] - The increase in the prices paid index to 70 signals rising inflation concerns [1] Group 2 - The positive economic data has influenced market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1] - The bond market has experienced fluctuations, with yields on various maturities rising and prices falling [1]

Group 1 - The ADP report indicates that U.S. private sector employment growth in October exceeded expectations, adding 42,000 jobs compared to the Dow Jones forecast of 22,000 jobs, suggesting the labor market is not at risk of recession [3][4] - Following the report, U.S. Treasury yields mostly rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 1.9 basis points to 4.11% [3] - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its 36th day, surpassing the longest shutdown during Trump's first term, with an estimated economic loss of $11 billion if it continues for another week [3][4] Group 2 - European stock markets opened lower, reflecting a global decline, with concerns over overvaluation in tech stocks [4] - In the bond market, there was a mixed performance in European debt yields, with German yields mostly declining while Italian yields rose [4] - The Nikkei index in the Asia-Pacific region hit a new low since October 24, with significant declines in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, leading to profit-taking [4] Group 3 - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, with a nearly 5% drop against the U.S. dollar over the past month, as market participants test the Japanese government's tolerance for yen depreciation [5] - Japanese government bonds saw a decline in yields, with the 10-year yield falling by 2.5 basis points to 1.668% [5] - The U.S. Treasury is set to issue $2.05 billion in bonds, including a $690 million short-term bond [5] Group 4 - As of November 3, the total U.S. federal debt decreased by $36 billion from the previous month, totaling approximately $38 trillion [6]

Group 1 - Global stock market sell-off on November 5 has triggered discussions about the potential low points for U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - TD Securities predicts that the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield will drop to 3.50% by the end of 2026 [1][2] - DBS Bank estimates that if the stock market continues to decline, the benchmark yield could fall to a minimum of 3.8%, currently around 4.07% [1][2] Group 2 - High valuations in technology stocks have caused market volatility, putting pressure on global stock indices [1][2] - Wall Street executives from firms like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have warned that stock prices may continue to decline, highlighting the potential for a new upward trend in the $73 trillion bond market [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in international gold prices, influenced by factors such as the U.S. government's record shutdown and the Federal Reserve's internal disagreements regarding interest rate cuts, which have led to a stronger U.S. dollar and increased pressure on gold prices [1][3][4]. Market Performance - On November 4, gold opened at $4001.88 per ounce, reached a high of $4005.56, but ultimately closed at $3931.87, down $70.01 or 1.75% [1]. - The price fluctuation for the day was $76.79, indicating significant volatility [1]. Economic Indicators - The article highlights the importance of upcoming economic data, including the U.S. ADP employment figures and ISM non-manufacturing PMI, which are expected to be better than previous values and may negatively impact gold prices [3][4]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.090%, contributing to the downward pressure on gold [3]. Technical Analysis - Short-term outlook suggests that gold bears have the upper hand, with potential further declines below $3900 unless there is a surprising positive employment report [4]. - Monthly and weekly charts indicate that gold prices may face selling pressure, with potential targets at $3800 or even $3700 if bearish trends continue [8][10]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish, with expectations of reaching new highs around $5000 due to ongoing economic uncertainties and potential future Fed rate cuts [6]. - Factors such as the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation, and global central bank gold purchases are expected to support gold prices in the long run [6][8]. Support and Resistance Levels - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3900 and $3850, while resistance levels are at $3970 and $4000 [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $46.10 and $45.50, with resistance at $47.70 and $48.00 [12].

国会预算办公室估计，根据联邦政府"停摆"持续时间的长短，预计今年四季度美国实际国内生产总值的 年增长率将下降一至两个百分点。 由于政府停摆，包括月度非农就业报告在内的多项关键经济数据推迟发布，投资者将关注ADP周三公布 的民间就业报告，以及美国最高法院就特朗普关税合法性举行的听证会，以寻找有关美国经济状况的线 索。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，如果未来的经济数据符合预期，美联储应再次降息50个基点。而美联储 理事丽莎·库克则表示支持近期联邦公开市场委员会的降息决定，但还没有就12月降息与否做决定，认 为通胀可能居高不下。 美国政府停摆已达35天，追平了史上最长停摆纪录，这一政治僵局导致关键经济数据的发布受到干扰。 穆迪首席经济学家马克·赞迪表示："当前美国经济本就脆弱，因此像政府'停摆'这样的事件，可能会比 人们预想的更快演变成更大的危机。"毕马威首席经济学家黛安·斯旺克将"停摆"引发的连锁反应比作不 断积聚能量的雪球，她表示："这就像雪球滚下山，势头和规模会越来越大。" 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京11月5日电（王菁）美债市场周二（11月4日）迎来喘息，收益率普遍自近期高位回落，投 资者在政府停摆与美联储政 ...

每经AI快讯，周二（11月4日），美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌2.87个基点报3.576%，3年 期美债收益率跌2.53个基点报3.584%，5年期美债收益率跌2.77个基点报3.694%，10年期美债收益率跌 2.72个基点报4.083%，30年期美债收益率跌2.61个基点报4.665%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices, breaking the critical support level of $3990, follows three months of continuous increases, raising concerns about the future trajectory of gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold was a leading asset this year, reaching historical highs in March, with a 47% surge in global investment demand in Q3, and Chinese investors purchasing 74 tons of gold, a 19% increase year-on-year [3]. - On November 3, gold prices dropped over 1% during U.S. trading hours, struggling to maintain the $4000 mark, and fell below $3990 on November 4, a significant level previously viewed as a "bullish lifeline" by many institutions [3][5]. Group 2: Factors Behind the Decline - The primary pressure on gold prices comes from the strengthening U.S. dollar, which surpassed the 100 mark on November 4 for the first time since August, as Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to a rate cut in December, boosting confidence in the dollar [5]. - The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surged to 4.11%, offering higher returns without the volatility associated with gold, prompting large investors to withdraw from the gold market [6][7]. - A decrease in risk aversion due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, compounded by the lack of timely economic data releases due to the U.S. government shutdown, leading to increased gold sell-offs [8][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, gold prices are likely to experience "volatile downward movement" due to the strong dollar and reduced likelihood of a December rate cut, with a potential drop to $3900 [11]. - However, the long-term outlook remains positive for gold, suggesting a "value return" despite the current "pressure test," depending on whether investors are focused on short-term trading or long-term positioning [11][13].

汇通财经APP讯——周二（11月4日）亚欧交易时段，美元指数走出冲高回落走势，盘中一度短暂涨超 100整数关口，之前该指数已连续第四个交易日上涨，目前交投于99.80附近。 当前美元指数的波动，正围绕美联储政策预期、美债收益率变动及美国国内风险事件展开，多空力量的 博弈让市场情绪始终保持谨慎。 据芝商所（CME）美联储观察工具数据显示，当前联邦基金期货交易者对12月美联储降息的定价概率 已降至65%，较一周前的94%大幅回落。 这一概率变化的直接诱因，是上周美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在会后新闻发布会上的表态——他明确指 出，12月再次降息的可能性远未确定，且强调在官方数据发布恢复前，政策制定者需维持"观望"态度。 10年期美债收益率持续异动支撑美元走强 周一市场中，10年期美国国债收益率上行2.7个基点，这一变动进一步强化了美元的利差优势，叠加鲍 威尔"12月降息非既定事实"的警告，共同为美元指数的涨势提供了延续性动力。 值得注意的是10月29日美国10年期国债收益率大涨10个基点，当天也是本次美元指数连续上涨的起点日 期。 美联储官员分歧表态或使美元指数来回拉扯 美联储谨慎预期与美债收益率助力美元多头 推动美 ...

第一金杨生，DYJPPLI，香港第一金，第一金官网，第一金平台，第一金PPLI官网 一、近期走势分析 近期波动背景： 美联储政策压制：上周美联储释放"12月降息非板上钉钉"的鹰派信号，美元指数刷新近三个月高点（逼近100关口），直接打压黄金避险需求。 地缘与政治风险：美国政府停摆进入第34天（创历史纪录），经济数据发布受阻，市场对政策不确定性溢价增加，为金价提供底部支撑。 美联储政策预期： 市场对12月降息概率从70%降至65%，若非农数据（11月5日公布）显示就业市场韧性，鹰派预期或进一步强化，金价可能下探3900美元支撑。 美元与美债收益率： 美元走强及10年期美债收益率维持4.1%高位，压制黄金持有成本，但政府停摆可能削弱美元长期走强基础。 技术面关键位： 支撑位：3960美元（日内关键）、3900美元（中长期支撑） 阻力位：4030-4045美元（短期压力）、4080美元（突破后看4100美元） 技术面特征： 日线级别：金价围绕4000美元震荡，布林带收口，MACD死叉运行，RSI超买后回落，短期需警惕回调风险。 小时图：4小时布林带三轨放平，均线粘合，价格在3950-4045区间内震荡，关键阻力位4 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，周一（11月3日），美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.89个基点报3.603%，3年 期美债收益率涨3.12个基点报3.612%，5年期美债收益率涨2.60个基点报3.720%，30年期美债收益率涨 3.96个基点报4.691%。 ...