美联储主席鲍威尔：美元不是美联储讨论的主要焦点。 ...

鲍威尔：美元并非美联储的重要议题。 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The report from Mitsubishi UFJ highlights that the Japanese yen is under pressure due to political instability following the ruling coalition's loss of majority in the House of Councillors election, making a rebound difficult [1] Group 1: Political Situation in Japan - The loss of majority seats by the ruling coalition in the House of Councillors election has led to increased domestic political uncertainty, which may hinder the yen's recovery [1] - There is a possibility of leadership changes in Japan, which could trigger a general election [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Indicators - U.S. short-term interest rates are expected to support the dollar, despite a slightly weak labor market indicated by recent jobless claims data [1] - The overall stability of the labor market aligns with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's stance against political pressure for interest rate cuts [1]

Group 1 - The performance of major currency pairs on July 25, 2025, shows a slight decline against the US dollar, with most pairs experiencing a decrease of around 0.04% to 0.09% [1][3] - The euro, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all exhibited similar downward trends, indicating a general weakening against the US dollar [3] - The data suggests a consistent pattern of depreciation across various currency pairs, reflecting potential market volatility or shifts in investor sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the recent trade agreement, the US dollar is expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing uncertainties and tariff impacts [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Trade Agreement Impact** The recent trade agreement has reduced uncertainties that have been weighing on the dollar, yet there is little room for a rebound in the currency [1] - **Tariff Effects** The imposition of broad tariffs is projected to exert pressure on the relative economic outlook of the US, which will continue to weaken the strength of the dollar [1] - **Investment Commitments** While the agreement with Japan has improved sentiment on Wall Street, the actual realization of Japan's commitment to invest $550 billion in the US remains uncertain [1] - **Cost Distribution Concerns** There are questions regarding how the costs of tariffs will be distributed among exporters, importers, and consumers [1]

Group 1 - The article highlights the weak performance of the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] - Gold prices are rising in the Asian market, approaching the previous high of 3375, suggesting a bullish trend [1] - There is speculation about whether the current rebound in gold prices will reach a peak or continue to rise [1]

Group 1 - The core theme for 2025 is the weakness of the US dollar, which has shown its worst performance since 1973 in the first half of this year [1] - The performance of US Treasury bonds has also been poor, with a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow during periods of heightened uncertainty [1] - In contrast, demand for gold ETFs has significantly increased, with total assets under management (AUM) rising by 41% to $383 billion, and total holdings increasing by 397 tons to 3,616 tons, marking the highest level since August 2022 [1] Group 2 - As of July 18, spot gold closed at $3,350.05, showing slight fluctuations, with a "deep V" pattern reflecting intensified market dynamics [1] - Economic data has been strong, suppressing rate cut expectations and boosting the dollar, while tariff policies have raised inflation expectations, driving investors to allocate to gold for risk hedging [1] - Gold is currently at a balance point between short-term economic strength and long-term inflation concerns, highlighting its safe-haven value [1] Group 3 - Recent reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin privately advised President Trump against attempting to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, suggesting potential rate cuts by the Fed before the end of the year [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index declined by 0.155%, closing at 98.46, influenced by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Governor Waller and a decrease in consumer inflation expectations [1][2] - Spot gold prices rose, reaching a high of $3361.2 per ounce, and ultimately closing up 0.34% at $3350.4 per ounce, benefiting from the weakening dollar and US Treasury yields [1][2] - Spot silver also experienced a three-day increase, closing up 0.14% at $38.2 per ounce [1][2] Key Developments - EU representatives are expected to hold a meeting this week to formulate responses to a potential no-deal scenario with US President Donald Trump, as the August 1 deadline approaches [3] - Trump's stance in tariff negotiations is perceived to be increasingly hardline, with no significant progress reported since last week's talks in Washington [3] - Negotiations are set to continue over the next two weeks [3] Trading Insights - For international gold, support levels are noted at $3341 or $3334, while resistance levels are at $3365 or $3385 [4] - For spot silver, support is identified at $38.00 or $37.80, with resistance at $38.40 or $38.65 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The signing of the "Stablecoin Innovation Act" by President Trump establishes a regulatory framework for digital stablecoins in the U.S., aiming to anchor them to the U.S. dollar and create a federal strategy for digital assets [1][2]. Group 1: Legislative Developments - The U.S. House of Representatives passed the "Stablecoin Innovation Act" with a vote of 308 in favor and 122 against, which aims to regulate stablecoins pegged to the dollar [2]. - The act requires stablecoins to be backed by liquid assets such as U.S. dollars or short-term U.S. Treasury securities, and issuers must disclose reserve details monthly [5]. Group 2: Market Implications - Investment institutions believe that stablecoins can fill the void left by declining demand for U.S. Treasury securities, potentially becoming a strategic asset for the U.S. government in the next 5 to 10 years [5]. - The proportion of foreign creditors holding U.S. Treasury securities has sharply decreased over the past 15 years, indicating a growing reliance on stablecoins to support demand [5]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - The Bank for International Settlements has warned that stablecoins have significant risks, including lack of central bank backing, insufficient measures against illegal use, and limited funding flexibility for loans [7]. - Concerns have been raised that stablecoins could undermine monetary sovereignty and lead to capital flight in emerging economies [8].