来源：金融界AI电报 美联储哈玛克：美联储独立且负责。 ...

美联储新任主席提名刚落定，特朗普再度发表重磅言论。 当地时间周一，特朗普直接将沃什与15%经济增速关联，盛赞沃什"是位非常优秀的人选"。 与此同时，他再次表达对现任美联储主席鲍威尔的不满，直言当初选择他是"犯了大错"。 GDP增速有望达到15%？ 特朗普此次大放豪言，本质上仍是为其降息诉求铺路。 此前，他曾明确表示"若沃什曾主张加息，自己绝不会提名他"，并调侃若沃什之后不降息，他将会起诉 对方。 眼下中期选举将至，特朗普直接将经济压力"转移"到还没上任的沃什身上。 此前，他曾表示在2029年离开白宫前，道琼斯工业指数将达到10万点，而降息正是实现这一目标的关键 抓手。 "若沃什能胜任本职，美国经济增速有望达到15%，我认为甚至不止于此。" 早前，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特表示，预计2025年美国GDP增速将从5%略微放缓至4.5%，今年经济增 速或将超过3%。 拉长时间维度来看，自20世纪50年代以来，美国GDP增速仅有少数几次突破15%，过去50年平均年增长 率也仅为2.8%。 显而易见，"15%增速"这一目标更像是特朗普的政治诉求，其核心是希望沃什上任后推行宽松货币政 策、持续降息，在中期选举前为经济注入动力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing volatility due to market reactions to the Federal Reserve's independence concerns and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly regarding Iran [1][2] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to speculative market activities, which have amplified the trends of rapid price increases followed by significant declines [1] - The outlook for gold and precious metals remains optimistic for 2026, despite short-term uncertainties surrounding the new Federal Reserve Chairman's hawkish stance [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis suggests that gold prices are in an upward trend, with key support levels at the 5/10-week moving averages, indicating potential for further bullish activity [2] - The MACD histogram shows a decrease in momentum, while the RSI indicates a neutral state, suggesting caution before making new bullish bets on precious metals [2] - A critical support level at approximately $4,819.19 is identified, with potential for deeper corrections if prices close below this level [2]

特朗普把美联储主席人选与"15%经济增长"直接挂钩，释放出对更宽松货币政策的强烈偏好，同时沃什 上任后的政策表现将被置于极高的政治与市场预期之下。 据彭博，特朗普在接受Fox Business采访时表示，如果其提名的沃什获确认并"做到了他有能力做到的工 作"，美国经济"可以增长15%，我认为甚至更高"。相关采访片段于周一播出，完整版预计周二播出。 对市场而言，15%的增长目标本身极为激进，其更现实的含义在于，特朗普希望沃什通过降息在中期选 举前为经济加速，同时对通胀再抬头的担忧显著降低。 但沃什能否尽快走马上任仍存变数，参议员Thom Tillis已表示，在特朗普政府继续推进对鲍威尔的调查 期间，将阻止任何美联储人事确认。 "15%增长"目标：远超目前主流预期 特朗普在采访中称，沃什在其上一次遴选美联储主席时是"第二人选"，并强调沃什"会很伟大，是高质 量的人"。但他提出的15%增长目标，远高于当前主流预期。 彭博指出，特朗普公开推动更低利率，并打破数十年来的惯例，对美联储独立性提出质疑。这一背景意 味着，即便沃什最终获确认，其政策空间也将处于更强的政治聚光灯下。 确认程序的不确定性：Thom Tillis的 ...

文｜明明 余经纬 陈炳丞 近期黄金价格出现大幅度波动。从基本面来看，我们认为是市场对美联储独立性的担忧和伊朗局势的预 期出现了变化，驱动黄金价格先快速上行后大幅震荡下跌。市场的投机性资金也放大了这一趋势变化。 展望短期市场，我们认为市场可能高估了新美联储主席凯文·沃什的鹰派立场，但伊朗局势的不确定性 仍然较高，或需等待局势尘埃落定后黄金市场波动才会收敛。展望2026年全年，我们仍然维持对贵金属 和有色金属价格的乐观预期。 ▍2026年1月以来，黄金价格出现了大幅度波动，从基本面来看主要是两个因素：美联储独立性和伊朗 局势。 2025年伦敦现货黄金收官于4300美元/盎司左右，2025年全年已经实现了大幅度上行。但在2026年1月黄 金价格仍然在加速上行，伦敦金现最高接近5600美元/盎司。但在1月29日触顶之后，黄金价格开始大幅 度震荡下行。其他贵金属等同样开始下跌。我们认为，这种先大幅上行后下行的基本面驱动因素有两 条：市场对美联储独立性担忧的变动以及伊朗局势的变化。 2026年至今，特朗普政府在对内和对外政策方面已经多次超出市场预期。在中期选举的驱动下，特朗普 政府导致的政策与地缘的不确定性可能仍然较高。 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 近期黄金价格出现大幅度波动。从基本面来看，我们认为是市场对美联储独立性的担忧和伊朗局势的预 期出现了变化，驱动黄金价格先快速上行后大幅震荡下跌。市场的投机性资金也放大了这一趋势变化。 展望短期市场，我们认为市场可能高估了新美联储主席凯文·沃什的鹰派立场，但伊朗局势的不确定性 仍然较高，或需等待局势尘埃落定后黄金市场波动才会收敛。展望2026年全年，我们仍然维持对贵金属 和有色金属价格的乐观预期。 ▍2026年1月以来，黄金价格出现了大幅度波动，从基本面来看主要是两个因素：美联储独立性和伊朗 局势。 2025年伦敦现货黄金收官于4300美元/盎司左右，2025年全年已经实现了大幅度上行。但在2026年1月黄 金价格仍然在加速上行，伦敦金现最高接近5600美元/盎司。但在1月29日触顶之后，黄金价格开始大幅 度震荡下行。其他贵金属等同样开始下跌。我们认为，这种先大幅上行后下行的基本面驱动因素有两 条：市场对美联储独立性担忧的变动以及伊朗局势的变化。 ▍综合智通财经等媒体报道，2026年1月开始，特朗普政府启动了对美联储主席鲍威尔的司法调查， ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market has experienced significant volatility, with buying interest returning and pushing gold prices above $5,000 per ounce, recovering some losses from a historic drop last month [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Gold prices saw a maximum increase of 1.7% on Monday, recovering about half of the losses incurred since reaching a historical high on January 29 [6][8]. - Silver prices also increased, with a notable rise of 6% on Monday, bringing the price back above $82 per ounce [8]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Geopolitical risks, currency devaluation trading, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have driven precious metal prices to new historical highs [3][8]. - Speculative buying has further fueled the price surge, although this was followed by a significant drop in both gold and silver prices at the end of last month [3][8]. Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Major banks and asset management firms, including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock, remain optimistic about gold's rebound, citing long-term demand drivers such as the global reduction of dollar assets and ongoing central bank purchases of gold [3][8]. - Concerns have arisen regarding the concentration risk in U.S. Treasury holdings, leading Chinese regulators to advise financial institutions to limit their positions [3][8]. Group 4: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Traders are focusing on upcoming U.S. economic data to gauge the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with the January employment report expected to show signs of labor market stabilization and inflation data to be released later in the week [8].

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump is a significant personnel decision that has caused fluctuations in financial markets, particularly impacting precious metal prices. Warsh's policy proposals, which include supporting interest rate cuts, reducing the Fed's balance sheet, and narrowing the Fed's functional scope, are seen as challenging to implement effectively [1][2][11]. Group 1: Warsh's Monetary Policy Proposals - Warsh supports interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's views that rapid rate reductions are essential for selecting a Fed Chairman. He believes that artificial intelligence will play a crucial role in reducing inflation and enhancing economic competitiveness [7][10]. - Warsh has consistently opposed quantitative easing, arguing that it encourages significant government deficits and ultimately leads to inflation. He advocates for a new agreement between the Treasury and the Fed to clarify the target size of the Fed's balance sheet [8][9]. - Warsh criticizes the Fed for overstepping its responsibilities, particularly in areas like climate change, and calls for a strategic adjustment to restore the Fed's credibility and independence [9][10]. Group 2: Challenges to Implementing Warsh's Policies - The Federal Reserve operates on a consensus basis, meaning Warsh cannot unilaterally implement policies without majority support from other members. The potential continuation of Powell as a Fed governor adds uncertainty to Warsh's ability to enact his agenda [12][13]. - There is a lack of data supporting significant interest rate cuts, as the Fed has recently paused rate reductions. Warsh's reliance on a narrative around productivity improvements from AI may not convince other committee members to support aggressive rate cuts [12][13]. - The plan to reduce the Fed's balance sheet faces resistance from both Fed officials and financial markets, which could lead to higher long-term interest rates, countering Trump's goal of lowering borrowing costs [13][14]. Group 3: Impact on Precious Metal Prices - Warsh's nomination has led to a significant decline in precious metal prices, with gold dropping over 12% and silver by 26.42% on the day of the announcement. This decline is attributed to market corrections following previous overexuberance rather than solely Warsh's nomination [15][16]. - In the medium to long term, precious metal prices are expected to remain strong amid macroeconomic uncertainties, although various factors may increase short-term volatility [15][17]. - Central bank gold purchases have been a key support for gold prices, but any significant reduction in these purchases could lead to market reassessments of gold's value, further impacting prices [17].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the historical challenges faced by U.S. presidents attempting to influence the Federal Reserve, highlighting the potential pitfalls of Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair in pursuit of interest rate cuts [1][9]. Group 1: Historical Context - Nixon's experience with Arthur Burns illustrates the risk of lowering interest rates leading to inflation, as inflation rose from under 4% in 1972 to over 12% by 1974, resulting in economic recession [3][11]. - Carter's appointment of G. William Miller, who struggled to gain the confidence of the Fed, led to his eventual replacement by Paul Volcker, who raised rates to combat inflation, contributing to Carter's political downfall [4][12]. - Truman's experience with William McChesney Martin shows that a Fed Chair can maintain independence and raise rates against presidential wishes, leading to disappointment for the president [6][14]. Group 2: Warsh's Challenges - Warsh, known for his hawkish stance on monetary policy, faces skepticism from Fed colleagues regarding his commitment to lower rates despite high inflation exceeding the Fed's 2% target [5][13]. - His past support for quantitative easing (QE) followed by criticism raises questions about his credibility and ability to unify the Fed [5][13]. - Warsh's commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence may lead to conflicts with Trump, similar to the fate of Jerome Powell, depending on how he manages this relationship [7][15].

【贝森特：#美联储不会迅速缩表#】#美财长称美联储不会迅速缩表# 自美国总统特朗普宣布提名前美 联储理事凯文·沃什担任下一任美联储主席以来，围绕这位新主席的担忧持续存在，集中在美联储政策 急转弯导致流动性收紧以及独立性受损等方面。当地时间周日，美国财长贝森特表态，试图淡化市场担 忧。他表示，即便是在美联储主席提名人凯文·沃什的领导下（沃什曾批评过美联储的债券购买行 为），他也不认为该央行会就缩减其资产负债表迅速采取行动。贝森特在一档节目中表示，美联储可能 需要长达一年的时间来做出有关其资产负债表的决策，并补充称，沃什将会是一位非常独立的美联储主 席。（智通财经） ...