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大类资产早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly presents the performance data of various global asset markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc., were 4.022, 4.606, 3.441 respectively. There were no latest changes, but significant weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were observed. For example, the US had a one - year change of 0.266, while Italy had a one - year change of - 0.206 [3]. - **2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies**: On September 12, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc., were 3.540, 3.927, 1.983 respectively. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes also varied. For instance, the US had a one - year change of - 0.020, while Japan had a one - year change of 0.484 [3]. - **USD Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: As of September 12, 2025, the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, etc., were 5.389, 108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, and weekly, monthly, and yearly changes differed. For example, the Brazilian real had a one - year change of - 4.48% against the US dollar [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: On September 12, 2025, the values of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc., were 6587.470, 46108.000 respectively. There were no latest changes, but weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were notable. For example, the S&P 500 had a one - year change of 19.34% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: There were no latest changes in the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. Weekly, monthly, and yearly changes were positive in most cases. For example, the US high - yield credit bond index had a one - year change of 8.93% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc., were 3870.60, 4522.00 respectively, with different percentage changes. For example, the A - shares had a change of - 0.12% [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 14.13, 11.90 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premiums of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc., were 3.70, 5.77 respectively, with no环比 changes [5]. - **Fund Flows**: The latest values of A - shares, the main board, etc., were 1342.66, 657.95 respectively [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc., were 25209.25, 6895.76 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes [5]. - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis of IF, IH, IC were 1.20, 0.06, - 7.75 respectively, with corresponding basis spreads [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - **Closing Prices and Percentage Changes**: The closing prices of T00, TF00, etc., were 107.880, 105.760 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.14%, 0.19% respectively [6]. - **Funding Rates and Daily Changes**: The funding rates of R001, R007, etc., were 1.3979%, 1.4651% respectively, with daily changes of - 9.00BP, - 2.00BP respectively [6].
股指期货:风偏再度积极,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:14
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view on the stock index futures market [2]. 2. Core View Last week, the market regained its upward momentum, with the growth style showing excess performance. The core drivers of the rise were the stable policy environment after the early - month adjustment, positive news, increased dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve overseas, and improved risk appetite. Looking ahead, this week, the release of domestic economic data and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision will be key events. The potential resistance for the market approaching the phased high lies in regulatory risks. Without further risk - prevention actions, the market is expected to maintain a bullish pattern [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - **Global Stock Index Performance**: Last week, most global stock indexes rose. In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.95%, the S&P 500 rose 1.59%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.03%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.82%, Germany's DAX rose 0.43%, and France's CAC 40 rose 1.96%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 4.07% and the Hang Seng Index rose 3.82% [8]. - **Domestic Index Performance**: Since 2025, major domestic indexes have risen. Last week, all major domestic indexes also showed an upward trend. In terms of sectors, electronics, real estate, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery led the gains, while comprehensive, banking, and petroleum and petrochemical sectors led the losses [1][8]. - **Factors Affecting the Market**: Positive factors include stable policy, positive news, improved geopolitical expectations, and stable US inflation data. Potential risks include regulatory risks [1][2]. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - **Trend Strategy**: Adopt a bullish approach but avoid over - chasing. The core operating ranges for IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are 4388 - 4614 points, 2915 - 3050 points, 6911 - 7374 points, and 7129 - 7609 points respectively [4]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Try the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. Spot Market Review - **Industry Performance in Indexes**: In the CSI 300 index, industries showed mixed performance last week, with the information industry rising 6.81% and the pharmaceutical industry falling 1.17%. In the CSI 500 index, most industries rose, with the information industry rising 6.82% [10]. Index Valuation Tracking As of September 5, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.36 times, 13.98 times, 11.81 times, 33.25 times, and 46.19 times respectively [20][21]. Market Fundamentals Review - **Margin Trading Balance**: The balance of margin trading in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the report. - **Funding Rates and Central Bank Operations**: Last week, funding rates declined, and the central bank had a net injection of funds [22].
股指期货:早盘沪深300等主力合约均上涨
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-13 18:49
【股指期货早盘开盘,各主力合约呈现不同涨幅】股指期货早盘开盘,沪深300股指期货主力合约涨 0.40%,上证50股指期货主力合约涨0.53%,中证500股指期货主力合约涨0.28%,中证1000股指期货主 力合约涨0.20%。 本文由 AI算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 ...
周五纽约尾盘,道指期货跌0.59%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-12 22:57
Group 1 - The S&P 500 futures declined by 0.05% at the end of trading on Friday, September 12 [1] - The Dow futures fell by 0.59% [1] - The Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.42% [1] - The Russell 2000 futures dropped by 1.09% [1]
股指期货:关注国内外宏观信息变量,预计股市振幅扩大
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 09:28
股指期货日报 2025年9月12日 王映(投资咨询证号:Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注国内外宏观信息变量,预计股市振幅扩大 市场回顾 今日股指小幅缩量,大小盘涨跌不一,小盘指数偏强,以沪深300指数为例,收盘下跌0.57%。从资金面来 看,两市成交额回升832.07亿元。期指方面,IF、IH缩量下跌,IC放量上涨,IM缩量上涨。 重要资讯 1、财政部部长蓝佛安表示,财政与货币政策协同,形成政策合力。今年专门发行5000亿元特别国债,为大 型商业银行注入资本金,预计可撬动信贷投放约6万亿元。 核心观点 今日股指先涨后跌,盘中多空博弈剧烈,收盘大盘指数回落,小盘指数上涨。盘前信息,昨日晚间公布美国 CPI数据基本符合预期,但截至9月6日当周,初请失业金人数大幅高于市场预期,叠加PPI低于预期影响以及 甲骨文热度仍在,美股大涨,今日开盘A股也受提振,以沪深300为代表突破前高,同时行业层面有色金属与 科技领涨。不过一方面前高附近预计A股存在一定的抛压,另一方面昨日上行幅度较大,盘间市场进一步上行 势能弱化。下周股市将围绕国内8月金融数据、经济运行数据以及美联储FOMC议息 ...
周四纽约尾盘,道指期货涨1.35%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-11 22:27
每经AI快讯,周四(9月11日)纽约尾盘,标普500股指期货最终涨0.81%,道指期货涨1.35%,纳斯达 克100股指期货涨0.54%。罗素2000股指期货涨1.65%。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250911
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 08:43
股指期货全景日报 2025/9/11 | 待定 中国8月金融数据 | | | --- | --- | | 9/11 20:15 欧洲央行利率决议 | | | 9/11 20:30 美国8月CPI、核心CPI | | | 9/15 10:00 中国8月社会消费品零售总额 规模以上工业增加值 城镇固定资产投资 城镇调查失业率 | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! | 备注:IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM:中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | 研究员: 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号:yanjiufuwu 电话:0595-86778969 免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为瑞达期 ...
宝城期货股指期货早报-20250911
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Short - term, the index futures are expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillations, while in the medium - term, they are expected to rise. The overall reference view is wide - range oscillations [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Index Sector - For IH2509, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the overall view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the medium - and long - term upward logic remains, but the short - term profit - taking intention of funds rises [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Index Sector - The intraday view for IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is that the stock market trading volume shrank, indicating market sentiment divergence and the need for market consolidation. Some stocks had large previous gains, leading to increased profit - taking demand and short - term technical adjustments. The latest inflation data is stable month - on - month but weak year - on - year, so there are still expectations of policy support. The margin trading balance keeps growing, and the trend of capital inflow into the stock market remains unchanged, which will continue to drive the index valuation repair [5]
周三纽约尾盘,道指期货跌0.49%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-10 22:15
每经AI快讯,周三(9月10日)纽约尾盘,标普500股指期货最终涨0.27%,道指期货跌0.49%,纳斯达 克100股指期货跌0.04%。罗素2000股指期货跌0.35%。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
“数”看期货:近一周卖方策略一致观点-20250910
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-09-10 14:10
Group 1: Stock Index Futures Market Overview - The four major index futures contracts all experienced declines last week, with the CSI 1000 index futures showing the largest drop of -1.74%, while the CSI 300 index futures had the smallest decline at -1.02% [3][12] - The average trading volume for the current, next, and seasonal contracts of IF, IC, and IM increased compared to the previous week, with IC seeing the largest increase of 3.52% and IM the smallest at 0.87%. Conversely, IH's average trading volume decreased by -0.34% [3][12] - As of last Friday's close, the annualized basis rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were -2.16%, -9.28%, -10.37%, and -0.23%, respectively, indicating a deepening of the IF discount and a narrowing of the IC and IM discounts [3][12] Group 2: Cross-Period Price Differences - The cross-period price difference rates for the current contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH were at 39.80%, 56.30%, 36.10%, and 47.10% percentiles since 2019, indicating that these rates are within historical distribution norms [4][13] - For arbitrage opportunities, with a 5% annualized return and 15 trading days remaining, the basis rates for the current IF contracts need to reach 0.54% and -0.91% for long and short arbitrage, respectively. Currently, there are no arbitrage opportunities for the IF main contract [4][13] Group 3: Market Expectations - The overall market sentiment appears cautious, as indicated by the full decline of the four major index futures contracts last week, with all contracts remaining in a discount state. This reflects a cautious market sentiment [5][14] - The impact of dividend factors on the main contracts is minimal, and it is expected that they will not cause significant disturbances in the market [5][14] Group 4: Recent Sell-Side Strategy Insights - A consensus among 12 brokerages indicates that the A-share market remains in a bull or slow bull phase, with an upward trend unchanged. Additionally, 9 brokerages believe that expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts and foreign capital inflows will improve liquidity [6][54] - There is a consistent positive outlook on sectors such as the AI industry chain, non-ferrous metals, coal, and chemicals among the sell-side strategy teams [6][54]