Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market is facing significant pressure due to rising yields, driven by fiscal concerns and policy uncertainties, leading to a "buyer vacuum" risk in the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rising Yields - Recent data shows that the yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds reached over 2.67%, the highest level since 1999, while the 10-year yield closed at 1.615%, the highest since October 2008 [2]. - Year-to-date, the yield on 20-year JGBs has increased by nearly 45% [2]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to raise the provisional interest rate for government bonds to 2.6%, the highest level in 17 years, reflecting recent market yield averages plus a historical volatility adjustment [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The loss of a majority in the House of Councillors by the ruling coalition has heightened concerns about Japan's fiscal policy, leading to expectations of increased fiscal expansion [3]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of fiscal deficit risks and policy uncertainties is contributing to the rising yields in the JGB market [3]. Group 3: Demand-Supply Imbalance - The demand side of the JGB market is changing, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies reducing their bond purchases [4]. - The Bank of Japan's move towards normalizing monetary policy has led to a significant reduction in its bond purchasing scale, creating a supply-demand mismatch in the market [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Caution - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization, avoiding rapid changes that could lead to market volatility [5]. - Despite pressure from U.S. officials for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the central bank has kept its policy rate at around 0.5% since its last increase in January [5][6]. - Inflation levels in Japan have remained above target, with the core consumer price index rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese bond market is undergoing significant changes as the Bank of Japan normalizes its monetary policy after decades of near-zero interest rates and aggressive quantitative easing, leading to a substantial rise in government bond yields [1][10][13] Group 1: Bond Yield Changes - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield reached 1.62%, an increase of 72 basis points year-on-year, while the 30-year yield surged to 3.236%, effectively doubling within a year [3][10] - The yield curve has steepened, indicating rising term premiums as investors seek compensation for duration risk [10][11] Group 2: Central Bank Actions - The Bank of Japan announced a slower pace of bond purchases, with a plan to reduce monthly purchases to approximately 3 trillion yen between January and March 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to tightening monetary policy [5][7] - As of August 8, the Bank of Japan held 561.73 trillion yen in Japanese government bonds, with over 78% in long-term and super-long-term bonds [5][6] Group 3: Debt Levels and Economic Impact - Japan's government debt is projected to reach 1,129 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2025, with total central and local government long-term debt expected to hit 1,330 trillion yen, representing 211% of GDP [7][10] - The actual interest rates on government debt have been rising slowly but remain below inflation levels, supporting a decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio [1][10] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investor Behavior - Japanese investors are reallocating funds from foreign assets back to domestic bonds due to rising interest rates and changing global monetary policies, with a net reduction in overseas long-term bonds [10][11] - The bond market is no longer seen as a safe haven for global investors, with increased volatility prompting a preference for short-term bonds or high-quality corporate bonds [11][12] Group 5: Future Outlook - Market expectations indicate a 64% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the end of the year, with potential further hikes in 2026 [9][12] - The normalization of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is viewed as a pivotal moment for global fixed income and foreign exchange markets, reshaping capital flows and investment strategies [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's bond market is experiencing a sell-off due to concerns over fiscal conditions and persistent inflation, leading to a surge in long-term government bond yields to their highest levels in a decade [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Yield Trends - On August 21, Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.61%, the highest since October 2008, while the 20-year yield reached 2.655%, a record since 1999, and the 30-year yield climbed to 3.18%, nearing the historical high of 3.2% set in July [1][2]. - As of 8 PM Beijing time, the 10-year yield was reported at 1.611%, the 20-year yield at 2.645%, and the 30-year yield at 3.191% [1]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Yield Increases - The primary driver for the rise in long-term bond yields is investor expectations of new fiscal stimulus measures following the ruling coalition's losses in the July Senate elections, which will increase Japan's already high debt levels [2][5]. - Persistent inflation in Japan has raised the likelihood of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, further pushing up bond yields [3][5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - In July, net purchases of Japanese government bonds by foreign investors dropped to 480 billion yen (approximately 3.3 billion USD), only one-third of June's total, indicating a significant decline in demand [3][6]. - Despite earlier strong demand, the trend has shifted due to concerns over inflation exceeding targets and potential fiscal imbalances, compounded by the Bank of Japan's gradual exit from the bond market [6][8]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The bond market has faced a significant drop in demand, described as "disastrous," with both yield levels and bidding multiples reflecting this trend [5]. - Analysts suggest that the long-term outlook for Japanese government bond yields remains upward, influenced by the Bank of Japan's reduced bond purchases and the normalization of monetary policy [9][10]. - If the decline in bond prices continues, intervention from the Bank of Japan is likely, potentially through liquidity injections or adjustments to monetary policy [9][10].

21世纪经济报道记者胡慧茵 另一方面，日本持续的通胀压力，增加了日本央行采取加息行动的可能性，也推高了债券收益率。与此 同时，海外投资情绪似乎也受到影响。有数据显示，7月海外投资者对10年期以上日本国债的净购买额 降至4800亿日元（约合33亿美元），仅为6月份购买额的三分之一。 日本长期国债收益率飙升还会持续多久？若日本国债继续承压，日本政府会出手干预吗？ 日债抛售压力何来？ 日本长期国债收益率在8月初曾短暂回落，之后持续飙升并达到历史高位。 "近几个月，日本债券市场遭遇需求大幅下降，无论是从收益率角度还是投标倍数来看，都是'灾难 性'的结果。"渣打中国财富管理部首席投资策略师王昕杰向21世纪经济报道记者表示，今年日本债券市 场的压力源于两方面因素，"首先，日本通胀上升且高于目标范围，拉升了债券收益率，特别是超长期 国债。其次，日本政府潜在的财政刺激，将给日本已经很高的杠杆率增加负担，也助推了长期国债收益 率提升。" 出于对日本财政状况和通胀持续的担忧，日本债市再陷抛售潮，长期国债收益率一度飙升至十年以来高 位。 8月21日，日本长期国债收益率集体飙涨。日本10年期国债收益率亦升至1.61%，为2008年1 ...

通胀压力与财政风险 推动日本央行走向加息的核心动力，是持续高企的通胀。数据显示，日本的消费者通胀率已经连续三年 多超过央行2%的目标。然而，日本央行在行动上一直保持谨慎，部分原因在于担忧美国关税政策可能 对经济增长造成损害。 与此同时，日本国内的财政政策走向也成为经济学家关注的焦点。调查显示，超过三分之二的受访者对 财政支出扩张的压力表示担忧。此前，呼吁降低消费税的反对党在上月的上议院选举中取得了进展。 经济学家普遍预期日本央行将在今年第四季度再次加息，这标志着其货币政策正常化的路径日益清晰。 根据路透于8月12日至19日进行的调查，近三分之二的经济学家预测日本央行将在第四季度采取行动， 将基准利率从目前的0.50%至少上调25个基点，这一比例较上月调查的略过半数有所上升。而10月成为 最可能的加息时点。 尽管近期美国就业市场疲软的消息重新引发了市场对美联储下月降息的押注，但调查中70%的分析师认 为，这并不会延缓日本央行收紧货币政策的步伐。 十月加息窗口期浮现 市场的目光普遍投向第四季度。在明确给出加息月份预测的40位经济学家中，十月成为最热门的选择， 获得了38%的支持率。其次是明年一月（30%）和今年十 ...

Group 1 - Senior Japanese politician Taro Kono calls for the Bank of Japan to accelerate interest rate hikes to improve fiscal conditions and address the challenges posed by a weak yen and rising inflation [1][2] - Kono emphasizes the need to signal a departure from negative real interest rates and suggests that the best strategy to combat rising living costs is to reverse the yen's weakness and seek moderate strengthening [1][2] - The Bank of Japan ended a decade-long large-scale stimulus program last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, but Kono believes that maintaining negative real borrowing costs for an extended period is undesirable [2][3] Group 2 - Kono advocates for a new economic framework to replace "Abenomics," which was introduced by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2013, aimed at ending deflation through monetary and fiscal stimulus [3] - He suggests that the central bank should gradually raise interest rates while the government works towards restoring fiscal health under a new agreement framework [3] - Kono's statements reflect skepticism about the effectiveness of the current economic policy framework, especially following the ruling party's poor performance in recent elections [3]

周二（8月19日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元下跌，目前交投于147附近，截止北京时间11:27分，美元兑日 元报价147.76，下跌0.07%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为147.86。日本执政党重量级人物斋藤健表 示，在美国加征关税背景下，日本央行加息需保持谨慎。 他指出若央行行动导致经济降温将引发混乱，此番表态针对市场对日本央行年内加息的预期。该言论显 示日本央行若恢复加息可能面临政治压力，因美国关税将削弱企业利润和加薪能力。曾任经济产业大臣 的斋藤健被部分分析人士视为未来首相潜在人选。他强调日本正处于摆脱30年低增长低通胀的关键期， 货币政策正常化需格外谨慎。美国关税上升可能损害日本汽车制造商利润及其加薪能力。斋藤健认为央 行应与政府密切合作支撑经济，而非过度担忧通胀。 美元兑日元正处于自8月5日低点开启的修正通道内，目前该低点位于147.05。若成功突破这一水平，将 凸显出一个看跌旗形形态，而若跌破8月7日和8日低点146.75，则该形态将得到确认。进一步下行方 面，下一个看跌目标位是7月25日低点145.85。看跌旗形的测算目标位为7月上涨波段的78.6%斐波那契 回撤位144.50。上行方面，即时阻力位为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/JPY exchange rate is influenced by the Bank of Japan's hawkish signals and the high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a strengthening of the Japanese yen [1] Group 1: Currency Movements - As of August 18, the USD/JPY is trading around 147, with a current quote of 147.50, reflecting a 0.22% increase from the previous close of 147.18 [1] - The USD/JPY is at a critical technical level, with support seen at 147.10 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 145.80-146.00 (50-day and 100-day moving averages) [1] - Resistance levels are identified at 147.90 (21-day moving average) and the 149.40-149.50 range (200-day moving average and 50% Fibonacci retracement of 2025 high/low) [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - The Bank of Japan's July policy meeting indicated a hawkish stance, raising inflation expectations and keeping the option for rate hikes within the year [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized the Bank of Japan for its "policy lag," urging for rate hikes to combat inflation pressures [1] - Market analysis suggests that Japan's weak consumer recovery and potential U.S. tariffs on Japanese automobiles may lead the Bank of Japan to maintain a cautious approach [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 93.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, impacting the USD/JPY dynamics [1] - The market is currently assessing the interplay between the normalization of Japanese monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's policy shift [1]

周二（8月12日）亚盘早盘，美元兑日元上涨，目前交投于148附近，截止北京时间11:01分，美元兑日 元报价148.31，上涨0.11%，上一交易日美元兑日元收盘为148.14。日本政治局势变化正加剧市场对货 币政策前景的担忧。 美元兑日元现阶段围绕147.5—148.50窄幅震荡，布林带带宽较峰值明显收窄，呈"布林带挤压"特征，指 向方向选择临近。 MACD方面，DIFF为-0.154，DEA为-0.232，柱状图为0.158，显示零轴下方的金叉后 动能缓慢修复但仍属弱势回升，趋势性尚未确认。 自由民主党在7月20日地方选举中的失利，使得在野党主张的扩张性财政政策获得更多关注，这为日本 央行的政策路径增添了新的不确定性。尽管日本央行在7月政策会议上调了通胀预期，并保留了年内再 次加息的可能性，但行长植田和男近期的鸽派言论仍给市场传递出谨慎信号。植田和男多次强调需要保 持政策耐心，这种政策指引上的矛盾使得日元走势缺乏明确方向。当前市场陷入两难：一方面，政治压 力可能促使更宽松的财政政策；另一方面，央行又面临货币政策正常化的需求。这种政策组合的不确定 性导致投资者对日元持观望态度，汇价陷入区间震荡。未来走势将取 ...

Group 1 - The Japanese government is set to implement the largest salary increase for public servants in 34 years, with an average monthly basic salary increase of 3.62%, leading to a total salary increase of 5.1% for this year [2][4] - This adjustment will impact approximately 280,000 public servants in Japan [3] - The increase in public sector salaries is seen as a positive development for the Bank of Japan, which aims to achieve broader and more sustainable wage growth to support inflation [4][7] Group 2 - The salary adjustments in the public sector are typically based on trends in the private sector, and this significant increase is attributed to the recent wage negotiations during the "Shuntō" (spring labor negotiations) [8][9] - The Japanese Trade Union Confederation reported that companies have agreed to an average salary increase of 5.25%, marking the largest increase in 34 years [9] - The public sector's salary growth has lagged behind the private sector, which has been a concern for Prime Minister Kishida, who has prioritized salary increases in government policy [10] Group 3 - The Japanese public sector faces increasing pressure to offer competitive salaries to attract and retain talent, especially amid a declining population and challenges in recruiting young professionals [11] - A report indicated that the number of recent graduates applying for public sector jobs has reached a historical low, prompting proposals for a starting salary increase of over 5% [12] - The estimated cost of implementing the proposed salary increase for public servants is approximately 334 billion yen (about 2.3 billion USD) [13] Group 4 - A recent survey indicated that just over half of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in early 2026, with strengthening wage data providing support for the normalization of monetary policy [14]