新华财经东京1月23日电 日本央行23日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不 变，将2026财年（2026年4月至2027年3月）通胀预期由1.8%上调至1.9%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 日本央行当天发表公告说，央行决定在下次议息会之前将政策利率（无担保隔夜拆借利率）保持在 0.75%左右。公告显示，出席货币政策会议的9名央行审议委员意见出现分歧，审议委员高田创加息至 1.0%的提议遭到其他8名审议委员的否决。 日本央行当天同时发表经济与物价形势展望报告，将2025财年日本经济增长预期上调至0.9%，2026财 年预计经济增幅为1.0%。 关于日本物价形势，央行认为，2026年上半年随着大米等食品价格回落，物价涨幅或回落至2%以下， 全年来看物价仍将呈缓慢上涨态势。央行继续将2025财年通胀预期维持在2.7%，同时将2026财年通胀 预期由1.8%上调至1.9%。 由于日本首相高市早苗为了赢得即将举行的众议院选举近日再次释放减税信号，导致日本债市汇市出现 剧烈震荡，日元急剧走软，长期利率大幅上扬。当天，市场高度关注日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上 的表态，日本央行是否被迫放缓货币政策正常化步 ...

Bitcoin (BTC) and the Japanese yen, which have recently moved in near lockstep, traded steady on Friday after Japan reported its first inflation slowdown in four months and the Japanese central bank kept interest rates steady. The headline consumer price index (CPI), which represents the cost ofeveryday stuff, slowed to a 2.1% year-on-year pace in December, marking a sharp drop from November's 2.9%, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported early Friday. The core inflation, which strips ...

Core Viewpoint - The uncertainty surrounding elections and subsequent parliamentary sessions makes it difficult for the Bank of Japan to take any policy actions. If the yen to dollar exchange rate falls below 160, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to intervene, likely starting with currency intervention. However, if the yen continues to weaken, the political environment may become more tolerant of interest rate hikes, increasing the likelihood of an earlier rate increase. The rise in bond yields is primarily driven by political factors, making it challenging for the Bank of Japan to increase its purchases of Japanese government bonds, which would contradict the normalization of monetary policy [1]. Group 1 - The uncertainty from elections and parliamentary sessions limits the Bank of Japan's policy actions [1] - A potential intervention by the Bank of Japan is anticipated if the yen falls below 160 against the dollar [1] - A weaker yen may lead to a more favorable political environment for interest rate hikes [1] Group 2 - The rise in bond yields is mainly influenced by political factors [1] - The Bank of Japan faces challenges in increasing government bond purchases due to the contradiction with monetary policy normalization [1]

美银最新亚洲基金经理调查显示，区域市场情绪正在经历显著重构。日本连续第27个月蝉联投资者最青睐市场，而印度则从上月的轻微超配转为 轻微低配，中国市场的长期结构性叙事出现反转，投资者对其前景的乐观情绪升至调查启动以来最高水平。 半导体板块继续主导投资者偏好，54%的受访者超配该板块，为所有行业之首。在中国市场，AI和半导体主题的受欢迎程度创下调查新高，66% 的受访者将其列为最青睐主题。这一趋势在日本和韩国、台湾等市场同样显著，预期半导体周期将走强的受访者比例接近三年高点。 印度市场的降温可能反映出投资者对其与美国贸易协议延迟的失望。相比之下，除日本外，投资者对台湾和韩国保持建设性态度，受益于对半导 体周期强化的坚定预期。 日本持续领跑，政策预期温和 日本以54%的净超配比例继续占据投资者偏好榜首，自2023年10月纳入调查以来，每月都稳居区域首选。投资者正在上调市场回报预期，关注焦 点集中在高市政府通过积极投资增长领域来实现经济增长和财政整固的潜在生产力提升政策。 据追风交易台，在这份覆盖112位管理2800亿美元资产的基金经理的1月调查中，亚太区除日本市场的回报预期飙升至历史92%分位数，创两年新 高。全球 ...

所有受访者均预测，决策者在1月会议上将维持基准利率在0.75%不变。最受关注的加息时点是7月， 48%的受访经济学家预计是该月，远高于选择4月和6月的各17%。日本央行政策委员会于去年12月将利 率上调至三十年高位，但仅有35%的观察家认为当前加息节奏合适，超过60%的受访者表示自2024年3 月开启的货币政策正常化进程过慢或偏慢。 1月16日，多数日本央行观察人士认为，行长植田和男及其同僚在加息步伐上过于迟缓，预计下次行动 仍需等待数月。机构对经济学家的调查显示，关键变数在于汇率，日元持续贬值可能迫使日本央行加快 行动节奏。 责任编辑：栎树 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, driven by diverging monetary policies and political expectations, leading to a significant depreciation trend in the currency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - As of January 13, 2026, the USD/JPY exchange rate reached a new 18-month low of 158.90, reflecting a year-to-date depreciation of over 1.2% [1]. - The divergence in monetary policy between the US and Japan is a key driver of the exchange rate, with the Bank of Japan raising interest rates to 0.75% in December 2025, while the Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle [2]. Group 2: Political and Economic Influences - Political developments in Japan, particularly Prime Minister Kishi's consideration of dissolving the House of Representatives, have heightened expectations for aggressive fiscal policies and a low-interest-rate environment, further pressuring the yen [3]. - Concerns over fiscal sustainability have intensified, with Japan's government debt exceeding 260% of GDP, leading to increased selling pressure on the yen as long-term interest rates rise [3]. Group 3: Economic Fundamentals and Geopolitical Risks - Japan's economic fundamentals show mixed signals, with inflation above the Bank of Japan's target and weakening growth momentum, limiting support for the yen [4]. - Global geopolitical risks, including tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have created volatility in the currency market, affecting the yen's performance as a safe-haven asset [4].

Group 1 - The recent U.S. employment data has prompted a reassessment of monetary policy direction, leading major Wall Street financial institutions to adjust their predictions regarding Federal Reserve interest rate actions [1][4] - Notably, JPMorgan has retracted its previous forecast of a potential rate cut in January, now predicting that the Fed's next action will be an interest rate hike, likely in the third quarter of next year, by 25 basis points [4] - Other institutions such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley have also postponed their expectations for the first rate cut, with Goldman and Barclays moving their forecasts from the first half of this year to September and December, respectively [4][6] Group 2 - Market trading data reflects this shift, with traders significantly increasing the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates at its January meeting [6] - JPMorgan's analysis indicates that if the labor market weakens again or inflation declines significantly, policy may still shift towards easing, but the base prediction is for the labor market to tighten in the second quarter with a slow decline in inflation [6] - External factors have also been noted to complicate the monetary policy path, with concerns about the Fed's independence arising from certain events, although mainstream views still hold that rate decisions will primarily depend on statutory responsibilities and economic data [8]

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On January 11, gold futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a historic high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical uncertainties [1] - Spot gold prices also surged, breaking the $4,600 mark for the first time, before retreating to $4,581.547 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have increased, with several brands quoting over 1,400 yuan per gram, reflecting a rise of 20 yuan per gram compared to the previous day [4] Group 2: Silver Market Trends - Silver prices in London reached over $84 per ounce, marking a more than 5.5% increase and setting a new historical high [5] - The volatility in silver prices has been significant, with a single-day increase of nearly 8% and a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14% [11] - Analysts from Goldman Sachs predict that silver will continue to experience higher volatility compared to gold due to the lack of demand support from global central bank reserves [14] Group 3: Geopolitical Influences - U.S. geopolitical actions, including potential military interventions in Iran and Venezuela, are contributing to increased market volatility and investor interest in precious metals as safe-haven assets [8][9] - The recent U.S. military actions have heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to a surge in demand for gold and silver as investors seek to hedge against uncertainty [9] Group 4: Market Adjustments and Predictions - The Bloomberg Commodity Index has undergone annual rebalancing, resulting in a significant reduction in the weight of precious metals, which may trigger passive selling pressure [16] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has raised margin requirements for trading precious metals, including a 28.6% increase for silver, which typically curbs speculative trading [16] - Despite short-term downward pressures, multiple financial institutions expect that precious metals will have upward price potential throughout the year [18]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold and silver prices, with gold futures reaching a historic high of $4,612 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 11, gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange hit a record high, surpassing $4,612 per ounce [1][2]. - Both gold and silver futures have shown significant price increases, with gold rising by 3.96% and silver by 11.72% during the week [4]. - Silver prices experienced extreme volatility, with a single-day increase of nearly 8% and a two-day cumulative rise exceeding 14%, followed by a drop of over 7% [5][6]. Group 2: Market Influences - Geopolitical events, such as the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to the increased allocation of precious metals by investors [4]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index underwent an annual rebalancing, which significantly reduced the weight of precious metals, potentially triggering passive liquidation by index-tracking funds [14]. - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metals futures, including a 28.6% increase for silver, which typically curbs high-leverage and speculative trading [14]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts from multiple financial institutions anticipate that despite short-term downward pressures, there remains potential for price increases in precious and industrial metals throughout the year [13]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that while silver prices are expected to rise, they will experience higher volatility and uncertainty compared to gold due to the lack of demand support from global central bank reserves [9].

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surged, breaking historical records and reaching $4568.66 per ounce, reflecting strong demand driven by geopolitical risks and investment trends [1][3][8]. Group 1: Gold Market Performance - Spot gold prices have consistently increased, surpassing key thresholds of $4400, $4500, and $4550, with a recent peak at $4600 per ounce [3]. - The World Gold Council reports that gold has performed exceptionally well in 2025, with expectations of a further increase of 15% to 30% in 2026 [8]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to rising geopolitical risks related to Iran and Venezuela, which have rekindled market demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [6][8]. Group 2: Silver Market Performance - Spot silver has also seen significant gains, with prices approaching $84 per ounce and a reported increase of 4.28% to $83.33 per ounce [4]. Group 3: Domestic Jewelry Prices - Domestic gold jewelry brands have raised their prices in response to the rising gold prices, with brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang increasing their gold prices to 1426 RMB and 1428 RMB per gram, respectively [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts from Saxo Bank suggest that the strong performance of gold, silver, and platinum reflects a combination of geopolitical hedging, financial flows, and structural investment themes [6]. - Citic Securities predicts a high certainty of gold price increases, driven by expectations of dual monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. and persistent stagflation pressures [9]. - The outlook for gold prices remains optimistic, with projections indicating that international gold prices could exceed $5100 per ounce by the end of 2026 under neutral assumptions [9].