Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the USD/JPY exchange rate and the differing opinions within the Bank of Japan regarding monetary policy normalization have created a complex outlook for the market [1][3]. Group 1: Bank of Japan's Policy Divergence - There are differing opinions among the Bank of Japan's board members about the need to expedite the exit from ultra-loose monetary policy, with some members believing current inflation and wage growth conditions warrant a gradual exit [3]. - Some board members express caution, arguing that current inflation is primarily driven by import prices and energy costs, lacking a solid internal growth momentum, which could pressure consumption and business investment if interest rates are raised too quickly [3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Performance - Japan's economic performance has been under pressure, with August retail sales declining by 1.1% year-on-year, marking the first year-on-year drop since early 2022 and the largest decline in nearly three years [3]. - Industrial production also fell by 1.2% month-on-month in August, marking the second consecutive month of decline, which exceeded market expectations and indicates a weak manufacturing sector [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Expectations - Investors had previously anticipated potential action from the Bank of Japan in October, but confidence has weakened following the latest economic data [3]. - The market is also closely monitoring the U.S. monetary policy direction, with expectations that the Federal Reserve may adjust based on inflation and employment data, contrasting with the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike expectations [4]. - The USD/JPY exchange rate remains within a consolidation range for nearly seven weeks, with market participants adopting a cautious stance focused on economic fundamentals and policy developments rather than single-direction trading opportunities [4].

Core Insights - The global financial system is undergoing significant technological and policy changes, with major UK banks initiating a pilot for tokenized pound deposits, expected to last until mid-2026, focusing on market, re-collateralization, and digital asset settlement [1] - Tokenized deposits are seen as a safer alternative to private stablecoins, as they remain within the regulated banking system, supported by the Bank of England [1] - Innovations in the cryptocurrency sector, such as "Stablecoin 2.0" by STBL, are gaining traction, indicating a growing interest in high-yield digital assets [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman has suggested reducing the balance sheet and potentially accelerating monetary policy normalization, which could impact risk assets like cryptocurrencies [3][7] Group 1: Tokenization and Digital Assets - Major UK financial institutions, including Barclays and HSBC, are testing tokenized pound deposits to enhance efficiency and reduce fraud [1] - The pilot program emphasizes programmability and regulatory compliance, contrasting with private projects that focus on yield optimization [4] - The demand for secure digital wallets is increasing as the landscape shifts towards tokenized assets and changing monetary policies [4][10] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy and Market Impact - Bowman's comments on potentially faster and more aggressive policy adjustments suggest a shift towards a more accommodative monetary stance, which could lower the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets [3][7] - A potential interest rate cut could drive more capital into the cryptocurrency market, increasing the demand for reliable digital wallets [3][7] Group 3: Security and User Education - The importance of private key management is highlighted, as losing or exposing private keys can lead to permanent loss of assets [6] - XBIT Wallet emphasizes user education on security practices, including the backup of mnemonic phrases and the use of two-factor authentication [6][8] - The design of XBIT Wallet integrates security audits and user education to help users navigate the evolving digital economy safely [8][10]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【日本央行前理事会成员樱井诚预计，在现任行长植田和男2028年任期结束前，央行或至少再加息四 次，将基准利率调至1.5%】日本央行前理事会成员樱井诚周五称，在现任行长植田和男2028年任期结 束前，日本央行可能至少还会加息四次，将基准利率提升至1.5%。 与现任政策制定者联系紧密的樱井 预计，日本央行今年年底前会再次加息，2026财年将再加息两次，到2028年3月结束的财年将加息一到 两次。 他表示："日本央行可能会稳步提升利率，推动货币政策正常化。"他还补充，日本状况良好， 大公司从价格上涨中获取巨额利润，日元疲软也推动了出口。 今年1月，日本央行把短期政策利率上调 至0.5%，但此后一直维持利率不变，原因是认为需要更多时间仔细研究美国关税的影响。 樱井表示， 预计下一次加息要么在10月，要么在12月。10月1日公布的日本央行季度"短观"商业调查是可能影响理 事会决定的关键数据之一。 樱井称，短观调查可能显示出企业士气和利润的韧性，这或有助于日本央 行为10月加息提供依据。 "但日本央行将没有足够的可靠数据来判断美国关税的冲击是否会保持有 限，" ...

日本央行前委员樱井诚指出，在行长植田和男2028年4月任期结束前，日本央行可能将基准利率至少再 上调四次至1.5%。作为与现任政策制定者保持密切联系的资深人士，他预测今年底前日本将再次加 息，2026财年加息两次，2028年3月结束的财年加息一到两次。 此前调查显示，多数经济学家预计日本央行将在年底前加息25个基点，但也有观点认为加息可能推迟至 2026年1月。 外部因素方面，樱井提到美国政府的弱势美元政策可能对日本央行形成加息压力。他援引美国财政部长 斯科特.贝森特8月言论称，日本央行在应对通胀上"落后于形势"。 此外，美日9月联合声明重申"市场决定汇率"原则，被解读为华盛顿警示东京避免干预市场抑制日元升 值。 樱井分析，随着美联储降息周期开启，日本央行考虑加息的背景下，日元兑美元走强将是自然趋势，未 来可能呈现日元持续升值态势。 樱井表示，日本央行或通过"稳步提高利率实现货币政策正常化"，并强调当前日本经济状况良好，大企 业正从物价上涨和日元贬值带来的出口增长中获取巨额利润。 今年1月，日本央行将短期政策利率上调至0.5%，但此后维持利率稳定，理由是需要更多时间评估美国 关税政策对经济的冲击。 樱井预计下 ...

Core Viewpoint - Global central banks are entering a new phase of policy adjustment characterized by unprecedented divergence, with Japan initiating asset reduction, the Federal Reserve starting preventive rate cuts, while the European and UK central banks remain cautious amid persistent inflation pressures [1][18]. Central Bank Policy Summary Japan - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its policy rate at 0.50% while initiating a reduction plan for its large ETF and J-REITs holdings, starting with an annual reduction of approximately 620 billion yen (about 4.2 billion USD) [2][6]. - The decision reflects a significant step towards normalizing the ultra-loose monetary policy that has been in place for over a decade, despite the slow pace of asset reduction indicating a cautious approach [6][7]. United States - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, citing economic slowdown and labor market cooling as key factors [3][4]. - Fed Chair Powell emphasized that the decision was a risk management measure, balancing the dual risks of a weakening labor market and persistent high inflation [3][4]. Europe - The European Central Bank (ECB) kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2%, indicating that current inflation is close to the medium-term target of 2% and that the eurozone economy shows resilience [9][10]. - There are internal divisions within the ECB regarding future actions, with some members advocating for rate cuts due to long-term deflation risks, while others believe current rates are sufficient to address multiple challenges [10][11]. United Kingdom - The Bank of England (BoE) maintained its rate at 4%, highlighting significant medium-term inflation pressures despite a slight GDP growth [11][12]. - The BoE plans to slow its quantitative tightening from £100 billion to £70 billion annually, reflecting concerns over long-term bond market pressures [12][13]. Canada and Australia - The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%, responding to economic shrinkage and employment declines due to U.S. tariffs [14][15]. - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has also reduced its cash rate to 3.60%, indicating a cautious shift towards easing while monitoring economic data closely [16][17]. Global Monetary Policy Landscape - The global monetary policy environment is marked by high uncertainty, with central banks facing complex challenges such as intricate inflation structures, external risks from trade policies, and political instability [18]. - The divergence in policy approaches among major central banks reflects a transition from a highly coordinated response during the pandemic to a more nuanced, differentiated strategy in response to evolving economic conditions [18].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has signaled a hawkish stance by maintaining interest rates while planning to reduce its ETF holdings, which may disrupt the Federal Reserve's interest rate reduction plans [1][3][11]. Group 1: BOJ's Policy Actions - On September 19, 2025, the BOJ decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% but announced plans to reduce its ETF holdings by approximately 3.3 trillion yen annually and 5 billion yen in real estate investment trusts [3]. - This decision reflects a gradual exit from strong market intervention, indicating a potential shift towards a more hawkish monetary policy [3][10]. - The internal discussions within the BOJ revealed a divide, with two policymakers advocating for an immediate rate hike to 0.75%, highlighting the emergence of hawkish sentiments within the institution [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the BOJ's announcement, the Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar, causing the USD/JPY exchange rate to breach critical support levels [5]. - The Nikkei index experienced a decline, signaling investor concerns over tightening liquidity [5]. - The BOJ's actions, while domestic in nature, have significant implications for global financial markets, particularly affecting the US due to the timing with the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut announcement [5]. Group 3: Implications for the Federal Reserve - The appreciation of the yen may lead to a corresponding rise in the dollar, which could weaken US export competitiveness and impact the manufacturing sector and job market [7]. - The Federal Reserve faces internal disagreements regarding the necessity of further rate cuts, with some officials expressing skepticism about the need for additional reductions [7]. - The BOJ's subtle yet impactful maneuvering has complicated the Fed's previously clear path for rate cuts, necessitating a reassessment of risk and liquidity in global markets [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a cautious yet optimistic stance on the current economic and inflation situation, with notable internal disagreements on the pace of monetary policy normalization [1][4]. Monetary Policy Decisions - The BOJ decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting, aligning with market expectations [1]. - The BOJ unanimously approved the initiation of selling its holdings of Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and Japanese Real Estate Investment Trusts (J-REITs), with the sale scale expected to be roughly equivalent to the amount of stocks purchased from financial institutions [1]. Inflation Dynamics - Inflation is primarily driven by rising food prices, with core inflation expected to remain weak; current core inflation is estimated to be between 1.5% and 2.5% [2]. - Despite a recent consumer price index increase of 2.5% to 3.0%, policymakers believe this rise lacks sustainability, and core inflation may revert to lower levels once food price shocks dissipate [2]. Interest Rate Hikes - There is a growing call for interest rate hikes, with two members advocating for an immediate increase to 0.75%, citing that the current policy rate is below neutral levels and that the output gap is closing [3][4]. - Some members emphasize the importance of timely rate hikes from a risk management perspective, suggesting that the technical preparations for a policy shift are in place [3]. External Economic Influences - The external environment, particularly U.S. tariff policies, is a significant concern for BOJ members, with worries about indirect impacts on export industries [5]. - While some members view the U.S.-Japan trade agreement as a stabilizing factor, there are warnings about the potential negative effects of U.S. tariff policies on Japanese exports and production [5]. Asset Management Strategies - The focus is shifting towards optimizing the asset structure on the balance sheet, with calls for a "market impact neutral" asset portfolio [6]. - There are concerns that reducing the balance sheet to pre-financial crisis levels could impair short-term interest rate control, indicating a cautious approach to exiting unconventional monetary policies [6]. Gradual Adjustment Path - The majority of members advocate for a cautious approach, emphasizing the need to monitor key variables such as U.S. monetary policy shifts and the impact of declining corporate profits on wage negotiations [7]. - The BOJ's baseline scenario remains unchanged, indicating a temporary stagnation in economic growth and core inflation improvement, while some members propose decisive adjustments if inflation continues to exceed targets [7].

Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rates in Asia - India's inflation rate rose to 2.07% in August, marking the first increase in 10 months, slightly above the Reserve Bank of India's target range lower limit of 2% to 6% [1][3] - Several Asian central banks, including those in South Korea and India, are expected to continue lowering interest rates in the fourth quarter, with concerns about domestic inflation and the impact of U.S. tariffs persisting [2][3] - The recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have narrowed the yield gap between U.S. and Asian bonds, providing more room for Asian economies to ease monetary policy [2][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Responses - Analysts suggest that the easing of monetary policy in Asia may be more prolonged than in the U.S., driven by resilient growth data and low inflation in the region [4] - The Australian Reserve Bank has lowered rates to a two-year low, while the Indian central bank has made significant cuts to support domestic growth amid external pressures [2][3] - The economic growth in export-dependent economies like South Korea and Singapore has been modest, while India has shown strong growth driven by domestic demand [3] Group 3: Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates before January next year, with a market probability of approximately 58% for a rate hike by the end of the year [5][6] - Despite political uncertainties following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the Bank of Japan officials believe they can proceed with a rate hike if economic conditions align with expectations [5][6] - Concerns remain regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese corporate profits, which have already seen a decline of 11.5% in the second quarter [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to provide Asian central banks with the opportunity to ease their monetary policies amid tariff pressures and global economic slowdown [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the easing cycle in Asia may extend beyond that of the Federal Reserve, as many Asian economies face domestic headwinds [3][5] - The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Korea have already lowered their policy rates to near historical lows, indicating a trend towards more accommodative monetary policies in the region [3][4] Group 2 - Economists from Fidelity International and Oxford Economics predict that several Asian central banks, including those in Korea and India, may continue to lower rates in the fourth quarter [4][5] - The weakening of the US dollar is seen as providing additional space for Asian central banks to further relax their policies by the end of the year [4][5] - Despite some concerns about currency depreciation, the actual interest rates in many Asian economies remain above historical averages, allowing for potential rate cuts [4][5] Group 3 - In contrast to the easing trend in Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates as it aims for monetary policy normalization, with a significant probability of a rate hike by the end of the year [6][7] - The Japanese economy faces uncertainties due to political changes and the impact of US tariffs, which have pressured corporate profits [6][7] - Analysts are divided on whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates in its upcoming meeting, with some expecting a hike while others anticipate a delay due to political and economic uncertainties [7]

【资讯导读】 ·美参议院否决临时拨款法案政府"停摆"风险升高 ·冯德莱恩提交欧盟第19轮对俄制裁措施 ·多国宣布承认巴勒斯坦国 ·日本央行维持利率不变将出售资产缩减宽松规模 ·日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不变，未来将择机出售其持 有的金融资产，缩减宽松规模，推动货币政策正常化。 ·日本总务省19日公布的报告显示，今年8月日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比上升 2.7%至111.6，自去年11月以来涨幅首次降至3%以下。报告显示，食品价格上涨仍是拉动日本物价上涨 的最主要原因。 ·美国国会参议院19日否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，推高部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停 摆"的风险。 ·欧盟审计机构欧洲审计团发布报告指出，由于供应链脆弱、内部市场分割等结构性问题，欧盟至今未 能找到有效解决方案，常用抗生素、疫苗等药品短缺现象仍将持续存在。 ·欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日发表声明，宣布向成员国提交第19轮对俄罗斯制裁措施，主要涉及能 源、金融等领域。 ·英国、加拿大和澳大利亚21日分别发表声明，宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。葡萄牙外交部长保罗·兰热尔21日 也宣布，葡萄 ...