点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周小结：铜价短期震荡 截至2025年7月18日，SHFE铜收盘价78410 元/吨，环比7月11日-0.03%；LME铜收盘价9795 美元/吨，环 比7月11日+1.36%。（1）宏观：美国6月CPI继续反弹，市场预计美联储7月不降息概率为94%，美元短期 或偏强。（2）供需：线缆开工率虽有回升但低于去年同期，7-9月国内空调排产环比下降，需求Q3偏弱； 美国铜套利行为或被提前终止，美国以外铜市场短期面临供应压力，铜价短期震荡。但矿端、废铜后续仍 维持紧张，随着电网、空调需求Q4回升以及贸易冲突逐步消化，Q4铜价有望上行。 冶炼：TC现货价维持在-43美元/吨附近 1）产量：2025年6月SMM中国电解铜产量113.49 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current off - season characteristics of the copper market's fundamentals are still obvious, and macro - policies dominate the copper price trend. Domestic anti - involution and key industry growth - stabilizing policies drive the short - term strengthening of copper prices. The Trump 232 tariff policy currently has limited impact on domestic copper prices, but subsequent macro uncertainties need attention [5] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Supply and Demand - The copper concentrate processing fee TC remains in the negative range, at a historically extremely low level. Downstream cable orders have not improved significantly. The short - term start - up of copper rods in the processing link has rebounded but is lower than the seasonal level of last year. Due to the decline in copper prices, the order volume of downstream enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has risen to 77.22%. However, downstream consumption is not optimistic as the increase in the operating rate is mainly due to the resumption of production after previous shutdowns. The machine - operating rate of the enameled wire industry has decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 80.8%, and the newly received order volume has decreased by 0.37 percentage points, mainly affected by the off - season of home appliance consumption. The spot market of copper concentrate has seen few transactions this week. After the price decline, although the market's purchasing enthusiasm has improved, overall, it is still mainly for rigid demand due to the off - season [4] 3.2 Macroeconomic Situation - China's Q2 GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, slightly higher than market expectations. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce a growth - stabilizing work plan for ten key industries, which will promote these industries to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On Friday night, copper, aluminum, lead, and nickel all rose by more than 1%. The US overall CPI annual rate in June rose to 2.7%, the highest since February, in line with market expectations, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has decreased. The US retail sales in June increased by 0.6% month - on - month, far higher than the market - expected 0.1%. As the impact of tariffs is passed on to consumer prices, Fed officials have different opinions on interest rate cuts [4] 3.3 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed weak and volatile trends at the beginning of the week. Affected by macro factors, it strengthened at the night session on Friday, recovering the decline at the beginning of the week. The closing price of 78,410 yuan/ton was basically the same as that of the previous Friday [6]

Group 1: Copper Price Trends - In the first half of the year, copper prices experienced two significant upward trends, starting with a rise due to a weakening US dollar, followed by a sharp decline influenced by tariff policies, and then a recovery to stabilize around 78,500 yuan/ton [1] - The market is expected to focus on macroeconomic data and Federal Reserve monetary policy, with limited negative impact from tariff policies on the macro market [2] Group 2: Supply and Refining Dynamics - New copper mines such as Sierra Gorda and Toromocho are set to commence production mid-year, but the global supply of copper concentrate remains tight [3] - Domestic smelting plants are anticipated to undergo a peak maintenance period from September to November, which will likely tighten the domestic spot market and elevate copper prices [3] Group 3: End-User Consumption - Cable manufacturing has shown a recovery in operating rates, but rising copper prices are exerting production pressure on these companies [4] - The air conditioning industry is expected to see a seasonal production increase in the second half of the year, while the automotive sector is projected to experience a production boost starting in July [4] - Overall, copper prices are expected to be driven by fundamentals, with supply and demand exhibiting a synergistic effect, leading to a potential upward trend [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The good economic data in the United States supports the price of copper. The strong retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week in the US led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 77,850, with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 78,260, with a night - session increase of 0.53%. The price of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 9,678, with an increase of 0.43% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 35,722, an increase of 1,534 compared to the previous day, and the open interest was 138,006, an increase of 1,690. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 11,283, a decrease of 5,365, and the open interest was 268,000, an increase of 408 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 42,139, a decrease of 8,103, and the LME copper inventory was 122,150, an increase of 1,150. The LME copper注销仓单比 was 9.17%, a decrease of 1.02% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: There were various changes in different price spreads, such as the LME copper ascension and discount, the spread between spot and futures, and the spread between different contracts [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The strong US retail sales data and the decline in the number of initial jobless claims last week led to the rise of the US dollar and the US stock market, with the S&P and the Nasdaq closing at new highs [1]. - **Industry**: China's imports of copper ore and its concentrates in June were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in June were 464,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 2.633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6% [1]. 3.3 Other Industry News - Azerbaijan's copper concentrate production soared nearly 12 times in the first half of this year, reaching about 1,200 tons, much higher than only more than 100 tons in the same period last year [3]. - India continued to impose counter - subsidy duties on continuously cast copper wires from four countries including Indonesia [3]. - Vedanta Resources Ltd.'s copper mine in Zambia plans to renovate its smelter to increase production [3]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant impact of the newly activated LME warehouse in Hong Kong on copper inventory data, indicating a notable change in market dynamics [1] - The article discusses the pressure on copper prices due to the U.S. imposing additional import tariffs on copper, which could affect market sentiment and pricing strategies [1] - Despite the tariff pressures, domestic demand for copper remains strong, suggesting potential resilience in copper prices moving forward [1]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Performance: Shanghai copper continued to trade in a narrow range, with total positions decreasing by 12,976 lots. The volatility of copper prices decreased, leading to an increase in the sentiment of capital leaving the market. After the contract rollover, the spread between contracts further narrowed, with the 08 - 09 spread narrowing to 10. The spot premium dropped 40 to 95, and the domestic futures - spot premium collapsed, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation. The LME 0 - 3 contango narrowed to 48, and LME inventories increased by 10,525 tons, with a 5,975 - ton increase in the new Hong Kong warehouse. Both the Shanghai and London markets continued to accumulate inventories due to the impending US tariffs, and the tight spot situation continued to ease, weakening the support of the spot end for copper prices. However, the medium - term supply and demand remained strong. The US CPI showed inflation resilience, and the probability of no interest rate cut in July fluctuated little, with short - term macro - level fluctuations also decreasing. [11] - Forecast: It is expected that copper prices will operate within the previous trading range. [11] Group 4: Industry News - Mining Accident: On July 15, 2025, a fume poisoning accident occurred at the Luojiahe Copper Mine of Wulong Industrial Co., Ltd. in Yuanqu County, Yuncheng, Shanxi, resulting in 3 deaths [12]. - LME Standard Warehouse Receipts: Cathode copper of two brands, Luanshya CLM and Daye DJ - B, under the group company traded by Zhongse International Trade Co., Ltd. obtained LME registered copper standard warehouse receipts, which are the first batch of LME copper standard warehouse receipts after the establishment of the LME delivery warehouse in Hong Kong. GKEML has successfully completed the first batch of LME warehouse receipts for copper, nickel, and tin [12][13]. - Company Outlook and Production: Antofagasta, a Chilean copper mining company, is optimistic about the medium - term prospects of copper. Its revenue guidance for this year remains unchanged. In the second quarter of 2025, copper production was 160,100 tons, a 3% increase; gold production was 48,300 ounces, a 13% increase. It is expected that copper production will increase quarter - by - quarter for the rest of the year. Molybdenum production in the second quarter was 4,400 tons, a 42% increase quarter - on - quarter [12]. - Protest Suspension: Peruvian informal miners suspended their more than two - week - long protest on Tuesday. A protest leader, Luis Huaman, said they plan to suspend the protest until at least Friday while continuing to pressure the government to introduce more favorable regulations for informal mining [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, copper prices will remain in a low - level oscillation within the range of 76,500 - 78,500 yuan/ton. Supply - side factors such as smelting capacity release and inventory accumulation pressure suppress prices. The demand - side only has marginal support from power infrastructure, but its realization is lagged. Additionally, the strengthening of the US dollar and geopolitical risks on the macro - level suppress market risk appetite, resulting in insufficient upward drivers for copper prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm of domestic policies and changes in overseas liquidity expectations in the future [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - **Main Contracts and Basis**: On July 15, the price of the SHFE main contract slightly declined to 78,330 yuan/ton, and the LME copper price also dropped to 9,643.5 US dollars/ton. The foreign market discount significantly widened, and the liquidity of the overseas spot market was under pressure. In the domestic market, the premium copper remained at par, but the spot discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper widened to - 50 yuan/ton and - 115 yuan/ton respectively, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1]. - **Positions and Transactions**: The LME copper position slightly shrank, the COMEX copper inventory increased to 236,454 short tons, and the domestic SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons to 109,625 tons. The spot trading activity was insufficient, and the market's divergence on the long - term supply - demand expectations intensified [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - **Supply Side**: Domestic smelting capacity is continuously being released, and raw material supply is relatively loose. However, CSPT suspended the processing fee guidance for the third quarter, which may squeeze smelter profits and inhibit the short - term capacity release rhythm [2]. - **Demand Side**: The demand expectation of domestic power infrastructure is boosted by the UHV project plan, but short - term downstream consumption is weak. The expansion of spot discounts and fluctuations in monthly spreads indicate a low actual purchasing sentiment, especially in the construction and consumer electronics sectors where demand has not improved [2]. - **Inventory Side**: Global visible inventories are continuously accumulating. The LME inventory suddenly increased by 47% to 34,379 tons, and the SHFE inventory also increased to 147,600 tons. The inventory accumulation pressure is prominent, confirming that the current supply - demand structure is relatively loose [2]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | July 15, 2025 | July 14, 2025 | July 9, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 78,300 | 78,600 | 78,810 | - 300 | - 0.38% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 165 | 0 | 0 | 165 | - | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 110 | - 50 | - 50 | 160 | 320.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | 15 | - 115 | - 120 | 130 | 113.04% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - 48 | - 62 | - 22 | 14 | 22.23% | US dollars/ton | | SHFE Price | 77,930 | 78,330 | 78,470 | - 400 | - 0.51% | yuan/ton | | LME Price | 9,658 | 9,644 | 9,663 | 14 | 0.15% | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,133 | 34,379 | 23,307 | 15,754 | 45.82% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 110,475 | 109,625 | 108,725 | 850 | 0.78% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | 238,264 | 236,454 | 234,204 | 1,810 | 0.77% | short tons | [5] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On July 15: The 150,000 - ton/year anode copper transformation project of Liangshan Mining is in the pre - work stage; the 125,000 - ton/year cathode copper refining project of Liangshan Copper is accelerating, aiming to start trial production by the end of the year [6]. - On July 14: In June 2025, China imported 2.35 million physical tons of copper ore concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 1.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.9%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative imports of copper ore concentrates reached 14.754 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.4% [6]. - On July 14: CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the third - quarter spot copper concentrate processing fee at the second - quarter general manager's meeting on July 11, due to the serious distortion and unsustainability of the current spot market processing fees [6]. - On July 14: From January to June, Chifeng Yuntong completed 53.19% of the annual target for electrolytic copper, 51.45% for sulfuric acid, 98.46% for gold, and 66.79% for silver. The safety and environmental protection situation remained stable, achieving the goal of "half of the time, half of the tasks" [7]. - On July 11: The monthly spread widened, and spot copper in many places was traded at a discount. According to the SHFE warehouse receipt report, the copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 1,578 tons on that day, with 377 tons, 400 tons, and 801 tons increases in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Jiangsu respectively [7]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts such as China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, etc., with data sources from iFinD and Tonghui Futures R & D Department [8][12][13][14][16].

Group 1 - Copper prices showed a slight increase of 0.06% in the morning session, with limited downward momentum due to low inventory accumulation in non-US regions and a narrowing price gap between refined and scrap copper [1] - Positive economic data from China has somewhat boosted metal demand expectations, while the US June CPI rose by 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%, indicating the impact of tariffs [1] - LME copper inventory has been gradually increasing, influenced by the potential implementation of US copper tariffs, with a notable decrease in cancellation warehouse receipts [1] Group 2 - New Lake Futures indicates that the easing of the US siphon effect has led to a significant alleviation of tightness in LME and domestic spot markets, resulting in weaker copper prices [2] - The copper price around 80,000 has notably suppressed domestic consumption, but this consumption is expected to gradually release as prices decline [2] - Overall domestic and LME inventories remain at historically low levels, suggesting limited downside for copper prices, with potential opportunities for companies to procure raw materials at lower prices [2]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts a short-term decline in copper prices due to a surge in imports before the implementation of a 50% tariff on copper in the U.S. on August 1 [1] - The bank has revised its August LME copper price forecast from $10,050 per ton to $9,550 per ton [1] - The recent tariff announcement by President Trump has led to a wave of copper imports as buyers stockpile to mitigate rising costs, temporarily easing supply shortages outside the U.S. [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs expects that once the tariffs are implemented, liquidity will significantly slow down, ending supply tightness outside the U.S. and alleviating upward pressure on LME prices [1] - The bank maintains a long-term bullish outlook, projecting a copper price of $9,700 per ton by the end of 2025, citing low inventories outside the U.S. that will take months to replenish post-tariff [1] - The bank also forecasts an average copper price of $10,000 per ton in 2026 and $10,750 per ton in 2027 [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices experienced a slight increase due to strong industrial production data from China, offsetting the impact of rising available inventory and a stronger dollar [1] - As of July 15, LME three-month copper closed at $9,645.50 per ton, up $26.50 or 0.28%, but has declined over 2% since the beginning of the month [1][2] - The copper price has retreated from a three-month high of $10,020 per ton reached in early July [1] Group 2 - Commodity Market Analytics predicts that copper prices may fall to around $9,585 per ton in the short term [3] - Goldman Sachs has lowered its August LME copper price forecast from $10,050 per ton to $9,550 per ton, while maintaining long-term forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 at $9,700, $10,000, and $10,750 per ton respectively [5] - The announcement of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. has made exports to the U.S. less attractive for other countries, leading to a decrease in LME canceled warrants to 11% of total inventory, the lowest level in five months [4] Group 3 - Recent data from China's National Bureau of Statistics indicates that the production of primary aluminum in June 2025 was 3.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, with a cumulative production of 22.38 million tons in the first half of the year, up 3.3% [5] - In June 2025, the production of ten non-ferrous metals in China reached 6.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4%, with a cumulative production of 40.32 million tons in the first half of the year, up 2.9% [5]