格隆汇7月30日｜联储证券研报指出，赤峰黄金主要在全球范围内从事黄金的采选和销售业务，是我国 最大的民营黄金生产商。境内管理并运营四座贵金属矿山，是公司黄金供应体系基石。五龙金矿和吉隆 撰山子金矿是公司国内金矿产出的核心，矿区黄金年产量稳定，勘探增储成果显著，重点工程建设持续 推进。境外管理并运营两座贵金属矿山，是公司国际化路线的战略尝试。长期来看，《大而美法案》进 一步加剧美国原本沉重的债务负担，对于黄金市场有望接力关税，为金价的长线趋势上行带来潜在机 遇。参考可比公司，结合公司未来发展前景，对其进行首次覆盖，同时给予公司"买入"评级。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent easing of global trade tensions has significantly reduced the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to a decline in gold prices [1][3] - Gold prices fell for two consecutive days, with a notable drop of approximately 0.55%, closing at $3368.35 per ounce, and approaching the psychological level of $3350 [1][2] - Optimistic market sentiment regarding trade agreements between the US and Japan, as well as potential agreements with the EU, has contributed to a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields, further pressuring gold prices [2][3] Group 2 - The upcoming US durable goods orders data is expected to provide critical insights into the future trajectory of gold prices, with strong data likely to reinforce economic recovery expectations and exert downward pressure on gold [4] - Geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchasing trends, and fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate are anticipated to have a long-term impact on gold prices [4] - Key dates to watch include the Federal Reserve's meeting on July 30, which may influence inflation outlooks, and the finalization of US-EU trade agreement details before the August 1 tariff deadline [4] Group 3 - Current market conditions suggest a bullish trend for gold, with potential upward movement towards the $3400 mark, despite recent price corrections [5] - The recent dip to $3350 was viewed as a mid-term adjustment, with expectations for a rebound and new upward opportunities following this correction [5] - Investors are advised to monitor resistance levels around $3395/$3400, with a possibility of breaking through to $3410 if market momentum remains strong [5]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing increased interest, raising questions about whether the upward trend will lead to a larger breakout and the extent of potential pullback risks [1] Group 1 - Recent interest in the gold market has intensified, prompting analysis on the sustainability of its upward movement [1] - There are concerns regarding the potential for a pullback in gold prices, which could impact the overall market dynamics [1]

Group 1 - The US stock market opened with all three major indices declining, with the Dow Jones down 0.54%, Nasdaq down 0.32%, and S&P 500 down 0.43% [2][3] - Chinese concept stocks showed mixed performance, with Futu Holdings rising over 1.5% and Beike falling over 2% [2][3] - Major tech companies mostly declined, with Google down over 0.5% as it plans to offer cloud service discounts to the US government [2][3] Group 2 - US stock index futures were all down before the market opened, with Dow futures down 0.62%, S&P 500 futures down 0.55%, and Nasdaq futures down 0.46% [4][5] - European major indices also experienced declines, with France's CAC40 down 0.81%, Germany's DAX down 0.73%, and the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.35% [6][7] Group 3 - Spot gold saw an intraday increase of 1%, currently priced at $3357.84 per ounce [8] - Canada's employment numbers for June increased by 83,100, with the unemployment rate at 6.9%, down from the previous 7.0% [9]

Group 1 - The economic data for May in the U.S. shows a stark contrast between consumer spending and inflation, leading to unexpected market reactions. Consumer spending unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, contrary to the anticipated increase of 0.1%, indicating a significant cooling in the consumption market [1] - In contrast, the core PCE year-on-year rate surged to 2.7%, the highest since February 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, far exceeding market expectations of stagnation. This combination of weak consumer data and high inflation places the Federal Reserve in a difficult position [1] Group 2 - Traders are predicting that the Federal Reserve may be forced to cut interest rates three times in 2025 to balance the economy. Following this, the gold market experienced a brief rebound after an initial drop, but this was seen as a temporary phenomenon due to short covering [3] - Technically, the gold market shows a bearish arrangement in the 1-hour moving average, indicating that bearish forces are dominant. Gold is currently facing resistance around the key level of 3295, which has become a short-term dividing line for bulls and bears [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has garnered significant market attention, with notable internal disagreements among officials regarding the policy path, leading to an increased probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Research indicates that certain members, such as Waller and Bowman, support a July rate cut under specific conditions, while hawkish representative Harker remains cautious about rate cuts within the year [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari anticipates two rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September, while also warning about the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation and emphasizing the need for policy flexibility [1] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff discussions have been pushing inflation expectations higher, with May data exceeding expectations, further reinforcing the Fed's stance of maintaining higher rates for a longer duration [1] - Based on data analysis, the outlook for gold is considered bearish in the upcoming week [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant increase in gold and silver prices due to various economic factors, including a decline in the US dollar index and rising oil prices [1][2] - The most actively traded gold futures for August 2025 rose by 2.70% to $3,404.90 per ounce, reaching a three-week high [1] - The disappointing economic data, particularly the ISM manufacturing PMI for May at 48.5%, which is below both April's 48.7% and market expectations of 49.3%, indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity and raises concerns about the US economic slowdown [1] Group 2 - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, with spot silver rising by 5.42% to $34.7750 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures up by 5.59% to $34.875 per ounce [2] - Market analysts suggest that due to economic uncertainty and geopolitical turmoil, there is substantial potential for further increases in the gold market [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold futures bulls currently hold an overall technical advantage, with the next upward price target set at above $3,477.30, while bears aim for a target below $3,269.10 [1]

金十数据5月19日讯，欧洲央行指出，若地缘政治局势恶化，黄金市场可能成为欧元区金融稳定的风险 来源。该行四名经济学家在周一发布的报告中警告称，实物交割需求、大型交易商的主导地位以及不透 明的交易机制，可能在市场失常时共同构成系统性威胁。这份报告将纳入周三发布的全面风险评估报 告。他们写道："如果极端事件成为现实，黄金市场可能会对金融稳定产生不利影响。""脆弱性已经出 现，因为大宗商品市场往往集中在少数几家大公司手中，往往涉及杠杆，并且由于使用场外衍生品而具 有高度的不透明性。""追加保证金和平仓杠杆头寸可能导致市场参与者面临流动性压力，可能将冲击传 播到更广泛的金融体系。""此外，实物黄金市场的中断可能会增加紧缩的风险。" 欧洲央行：黄金市场或将威胁欧元区金融稳定 订阅黄金市场动态 +订阅 订阅欧洲央行动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1 - The price of spot gold reached $3,250 per ounce on May 16, with the Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) rising by 1.81% [1] - The Shanghai Gold ETF (159830) has seen net inflows for three consecutive days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETF inflows amounted to approximately $11 billion in April, bringing total assets under management to $379 billion by the end of the month [1] Group 2 - Northeast Securities noted that gold price trends this year show strong similarities to last year, suggesting a need for adjustment and cooling after rapid trading movements [2] - The combination of stagflation risks and slowly declining interest rates is expected to support gold prices in the medium term [2] - Long-term capital inflows into the gold market are anticipated due to global asset rebalancing and the weakening of the dollar system [2]

5月5日，和讯投顾高璐明就假期期间国内外市场动态及A股后续走势发表了观点。他指出，假期期间市 场消息频出，中国资产大幅飙升，汇率也呈现升值态势，同时现货黄金市场也出现大涨。在此背景下， 投资者普遍关注A股市场在假期后能否迎来开门红。 高璐明强调，在市场资金未完全发力之前，投资者可以关注科技品种或受消息政策影响的方向，但整体 仓位不宜过重。他建议投资者等待市场资金发力、新的明确热点方向或主线方向启动时再重点加仓。对 于短线投资者而言，一旦出现明显涨不动或冲高回落的情况，应及时减仓或离场。 从技术面来看，高璐明认为市场在经历连续回踩后正在构筑中期底部。他建议投资者等待市场给出明确 的中大阳线、成交量放大等信号，并确定主线方向后再加重仓位参与第二次抄底。尽管市场节奏需要把 握，但他对未来行情并不悲观。 在谈到市场走势时，高璐明认为，尽管假期期间市场出现了诸多利好信号，如中国资产上攻、汇率升 值、富时A50及港股正反馈等，但投资者仍需防范市场高开回落的风险。他提到，外部事件虽然传递出 谈判意愿，但小额包裹免税政策最终未减免，显示出对方意愿并不强烈。同时，国际原油价格持续跳 水，将对国内石油板块形成负面影响，进而压制盘 ...