Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [51] Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has increased, driving up gold prices. As of August 22, the COMEX gold futures contract rose by 1.03% to $3,417.20 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 0.9% to 956.77 tons. The market's expectation of a 90% probability for a rate cut is seen as a core driver for current gold prices, with long-term macro uncertainties likely to sustain gold's safe-haven appeal [4][6]. - Industrial Metals: The approach of the consumption peak season is strengthening the fundamentals. As of August 22, the LME copper futures contract rose by 0.4% to $9,796.50 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 131,700 tons, with a slight increase. The demand side is expected to enter a destocking cycle as domestic consumption gradually recovers [5][6]. - Aluminum: As of August 22, the LME aluminum futures contract rose by 0.7% to $2,622 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 596,000 tons, with a slight increase. The demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches, with a decrease in inventory pressure [6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of August 22, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 6,580.17 points, up 1.8% [10]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to macro uncertainties and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, enhancing gold's monetary attributes [4][7]. 3. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals are improving with domestic demand recovery and tight supply of copper concentrate. The long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: The supply-demand dynamics are expected to favor price increases as the peak season approaches, despite short-term seasonal weakness [6][7]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. Specific companies to watch include Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining for gold, Luoyang Molybdenum for copper, and Tianshan Shares for aluminum [7][48].

从技术面来看，根据最新的四小时图表，金价目前徘徊在3340美元附近，处于支撑与阻力的夹缝地带，下方支撑区间集中在3290至3268美元，一旦跌破这一 带，可能加速下探至更低水平；而上方的关键阻力则位于3430至3452美元区域，该区间与长期下降趋势线重叠，构成强压，若能有效突破，则有望进一步冲 击3500美元关口。换言之，黄金正处于区间震荡的中枢，短期方向尚未明朗，突破与跌破都可能引发趋势性行情。 整体而言，黄金的多空力量正在平衡中博弈，降息预期虽仍存在，但激进宽松的幻想被数据打破，美元反攻的条件逐渐形成；而和平希望则让黄金避险属性 削弱。短线走势将高度依赖即将到来的美联储信号和全球经济数据。如果周五鲍威尔讲话继续维持鹰派立场，金价可能难以突破上方阻力区间，甚至会重新 走弱；但若释放对通胀容忍度的提升，坚定年内多次降息，黄金则可能迎来新一轮反弹。未来几日的市场动态将决定黄金能否摆脱当前困境，这不仅关乎短 期交易机会，更关乎避险资产在全球资金配置中的地位。 ▲ATFX图 黄金价格在周三启动了较为明显的反弹，因美元转为走弱。此前市场一致认为美联储将在9月重启降息周期，甚至押注年内累计三次25个基点的宽松，但随 着 ...

Group 1 - The fundamental attributes of gold are scarcity and safe-haven appeal, with the former being a physical property and the latter an emotional one. Despite annual mining, the incremental supply is only 1% of the total stock, making it difficult to influence international gold prices. The safe-haven attribute is the key factor determining gold price fluctuations [1] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the end of conflicts between Israel and Iran, and Thailand and Cambodia, have reduced the number of events that can trigger market risk aversion. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict is also approaching a resolution, with expectations of a peace agreement becoming mainstream in the market [1] - The latest gold price is around $3,338, which is only $161 away from its historical high of $3,499. However, this resilience is primarily attributed to the decline of the US dollar index rather than its safe-haven property [1][2] Group 2 - Since Trump's presidency, aggressive domestic and foreign policies have caused anxiety and disappointment among Wall Street and global financial institutions, leading to capital flight from the US and a significant drop in the dollar index. The dollar index peaked at 110.18 in January but has since fallen to a low of 96.37, remaining below the 100 mark [2] - Technically, gold has been in a converging triangle consolidation pattern since April 22, with the right side of the triangle becoming increasingly narrow, indicating a potential breakout. A peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine could increase the likelihood of a downward breakout for gold. However, recent rebound waves suggest that bulls are still making efforts, and if the dollar index remains weak, gold may still have the potential for an upward breakout [5]

美联储的政策动向无疑是黄金价格波动的核心驱动力。然而，市场对鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔讲话的预期却 充满不确定性。鲍威尔以往在该会议上的表态往往具有里程碑意义，例如2022年他曾释放出抗击通胀的 鹰派立场，如今投资者担心他可能会淡化9月降息的预期，尤其是考虑到7月生产者物价指数（PPI）高 于预期，这在一定程度上打击了降息押注。根据CME的FedWatch工具，交易员们认为9月份降息25个基 点的可能性高达85%。 除了货币政策，地缘政治因素也在悄然影响黄金的避险属性。美国总统特朗普周二表示，他希望俄罗斯 总统普京推动结束乌克兰战争，并称美国将在和平协议中帮助确保乌克兰安全。这番表态为结束俄乌冲 突释放出积极信号，交易员们正评估其对市场的潜在影响。若和平谈判取得进展，全球风险情绪可能改 善，削弱黄金作为避险资产的吸引力，导致价格进一步承压。然而，特朗普同时承认普京可能不愿达成 协议，这将给后者造成"艰难局面"，这种不确定性反而可能维持黄金的支撑。特朗普还继续敦促美联储 寻求更大幅度的降息，这与市场对关税影响的担忧交织在一起。关税上行压力虽在消费者物价指数 （CPI）中显示有限，但已令投资者对经济前景持谨慎态度。黄金在 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][58]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Short-term drivers are expected to be weak, with gold prices likely to fluctuate. As of August 15, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.21% to $3,381.7 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.6% to 965.36 tons. The U.S. July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, while the core CPI rose by 3.1%. The impact of U.S. tariff policies is gradually becoming evident. In the medium term, interest rate cut expectations may anchor gold prices, while long-term macro uncertainties continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, leading to an expected upward trend in gold prices [4][5][7]. - Industrial Metals: The downstream consumption peak season is approaching, and the fundamental support is strengthening. As of August 15, LME copper futures fell by 0.1% to $9,760 per ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 125,600 tons, a decrease of 6,400 tons. The LME copper inventory stood at 155,800 tons. The import copper concentrate index reported -$37.68 per ton. The demand side is expected to enter a destocking cycle as domestic consumption gradually recovers. The macro environment remains supportive for copper prices due to a weaker dollar [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term, with macro uncertainties supporting long-term upward trends [4][5]. 2. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The domestic demand is gradually recovering, with a tight supply of copper concentrate. The medium to long-term outlook for copper prices remains positive [6][7]. - **Aluminum**: As of August 15, LME aluminum futures fell by 0.5% to $2,603 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 588,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. The short-term demand for aluminum is relatively weak due to seasonal factors, but medium-term price trends are expected to be strong due to supply-demand dynamics [6][7]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Luoyang Molybdenum Co., and for aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum is highlighted [7][56].

Group 1 - International gold prices showed little change on August 15, with spot gold rising by 0.01% to $3,335.28 per ounce, and a weekly decline of 1.86% [1] - COMEX gold futures fell by 0.04% to $3,381.70 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 3.14% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices in China varied, with several brands reducing their prices by 6 yuan per gram to 1,002 yuan per gram, while others like Chow Sang Sang increased by 2 yuan to 1,005 yuan per gram [1][2] Group 2 - The upcoming meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Putin has influenced gold prices, with a nearly 2% drop in spot gold prior to the meeting as investors anticipated positive outcomes [3][4] - Analysts suggest that if the meeting results in significant progress, the safe-haven appeal of gold may diminish, while failure to achieve substantial outcomes could lead to a rise in gold prices due to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - The World Gold Council reported that in July, global physical gold ETF inflows reached $3.2 billion, continuing a trend of inflows driven by international markets, with total assets under management increasing to $386 billion [4]

Group 1: Current Market Performance - As of August 12, 2025, several well-known domestic jewelry brands have seen gold prices drop below 1000 yuan per gram, marking the entry into the "three-digit era" [1] - The current lowest price is from Zhou Shiliufu at 988 yuan per gram, with other brands like Lao Miao Huangjin at 1004 yuan, Zhou Dafu at 1008 yuan, and Zhou Shengsheng at 1010 yuan, reflecting a cumulative decline of over 4% from the July peak of approximately 1039 yuan per gram [1] Group 2: International Gold Price Trends - On August 11, international spot gold prices fell by 2.5%, dropping below 3350 USD per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly three months [2] Group 3: Reasons for Price Decline - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50% and signals of uncertainty regarding a September rate cut have weakened expectations for monetary easing [3] - A significant increase in the US dollar index, which rose by 1% over the week to reach a new high since May, has pressured gold prices denominated in dollars [3] - A decrease in safe-haven demand due to the EU and US reaching a trade framework agreement and a temporary easing of tensions in the Middle East has led to a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums [4] - Domestic gold jewelry consumption has plummeted by 26% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with high gold prices suppressing demand for weddings and other essential purchases [5] Group 4: Recommendations for Consumers and Investors - For essential consumers (e.g., weddings, gifts), it is advised to prioritize simpler designs with lower processing fees and to monitor wholesale markets for better pricing [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider dollar-cost averaging into gold ETFs to mitigate risks and to opt for bank gold bars with lower premiums, while avoiding high-premium traditional gold products due to their volatility [7] Group 5: Future Price Outlook - Short-term pressures on gold prices are expected to continue, influenced by the Federal Reserve's September policy decisions and the progress of US-China negotiations [8] - Long-term fundamentals remain intact, with global central banks increasing gold purchases by 14% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and ongoing debt risks supporting gold's safe-haven appeal [8]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals experienced a sudden surge in prices, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, weak U.S. non-farm data, and geopolitical risks, providing strong support for gold [7]. Price Movements - As of 15:38, NYMEX palladium rose by 1.73%, NYMEX platinum increased by 1.72%, spot silver expanded its gains to 1%, and spot gold rose approximately 0.8% to $3395 per ounce [3][4]. - COMEX gold was reported at $3466 per ounce, reflecting a 0.73% increase [5]. Market Demand - The World Gold Council reported that global gold demand surged to $132 billion in Q2 2025, with total demand reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year increase [7]. - The demand value increased significantly by 45% year-on-year, setting a new historical high [7]. Investment Trends - Gold ETF investments were a key driver of total gold demand, with inflows of 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with outflows in the same period of 2024 [9]. - The total demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% to 307 tons, with Chinese demand increasing by 44% to 115 tons [9]. Supply Dynamics - Global gold supply increased by 3% to 1249 tons, with mine production reaching a historical high in Q2 2025 [7]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, adding 166 tons in Q2 2025, although the pace of purchases has slowed [9]. Jewelry Demand - Global gold jewelry consumption declined by 14% year-on-year in Q2 2025, nearing 2020's low levels, despite a rise in value to $36 billion [10]. - In China, gold jewelry demand fell to 69 tons, a 20% year-on-year decrease, marking the weakest performance for Q2 since 2007 [10]. Market Outlook - The strong performance of gold in the first half of 2025 suggests potential price stability in the second half, although macroeconomic uncertainties may provide further support for gold prices [8]. - The high-end jewelry market remains robust, driven by emerging brands, while traditional retail faces challenges due to declining consumer demand [12].

8月6日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价基本没变化，仅周生生金店金价上涨1元/克，报1015元/克。上海中国黄金不 涨不跌，报价969元/克，稳定拿下最低价金店的位置。今日最高与最低金店间价差不变，还是46元/克。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年8月6日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1013 | 元/克 | 0 | স | | 六福黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | 0 | 21 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 988 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | 0 | 77 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | 0 | 27 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1015 | 元/克 | 1 | 涨 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 982 | 元/ ...

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,375, having reached a two-week high of $3,390.32 per ounce, marking four consecutive days of gains, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and geopolitical tensions [1] - The U.S. dollar index showed weakness, falling to 98.76, which supported gold prices as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns over soft employment data and changes in the U.S. labor statistics leadership [1] - The market anticipates a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy due to personnel changes, which could further weaken the dollar and boost gold prices [1] Market Expectations - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has surged to 91%, with predictions of cumulative cuts of 130 basis points by October 2026, as economic data indicates a slowdown [3] - Goldman Sachs forecasts the Federal Reserve may implement three consecutive rate cuts starting in September, each by 25 basis points, with a potential 50 basis point cut if employment data worsens [3] Geopolitical Factors - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed a productive call with U.S. President Trump regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, emphasizing the need for sanctions against Russia and cooperation on drone agreements [3] - Zelensky expressed frustration over Russia's continued military aggression despite calls for a ceasefire, highlighting the dire situation for Ukrainian civilians [4] - Trump has threatened new sanctions against Russia if peace is not achieved by August 8, indicating a strong stance against Russia's actions in Ukraine [4] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed strong bullish momentum, with potential resistance levels at $3,390 and $3,400, while support is seen around $3,350 [7] - Short-term trading strategies suggest buying near $3,355-$3,362 with a stop loss at $3,349, and considering short positions near $3,380-$3,385 with a stop loss at $3,391 [7]