近期，委内瑞拉局势风云突变，全世界都在关注，那么到底在委内瑞拉发生了什么？这次事件 的影响还会持续多久？对国际市场有哪些影响？今天我们来讲一讲。 当地时间1月3日凌晨，美国对委内瑞拉发动了大规模军事打击，并强掳现任总统马杜罗及其夫 人，将他们带往美国。美国总统特朗普当天公开表示，美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，直至实现所谓 的"安全"过渡。1月5日，联合国安理会就委内瑞拉局势召开紧急会议，国际社会对这一事件的 关注度持续升高。 大家都知道， 委内瑞拉是石油输出国之一，一 些投资者关心的是，委内瑞拉的局势会对国际 原油市场产生什么影响？ 1月5日，两大原油指标（美国纽约西德州中级原油期货、布兰特原油期货）一度下跌逾1美 元，但随著投资人消化马杜罗遭逮捕，以及美国将接管委内瑞拉的消息后，油价转而上涨。 主要是产油国之间政策协同难，加上全球经济不景气导致原油需求减弱，以及光伏、氢能、风 能等新能源的快速崛起，都会导致对原油的需求量减少。因此，委内瑞拉的局势变动对国际油 价的影响有限。而从 中长期来看，原油价格仍将被供需基本面压制。 说完原油，我们接下来就来说说投资者关心的另一个问题，就是黄金价格，这里的故事可能更 加波折。 ...

编辑：王一帆 美国对委内瑞拉实施军事行动对油价的影响在周二（6日）有所缓和，投资者将更多注意力转向原油的 供需基本面，市场普遍预期2026年原油市场整体供应充足，国际油价周二下跌。纽约商品交易所2月交 货的轻质原油期货价格报收于每桶57.13美元，跌幅为2.04%；3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格报收 于每桶60.70美元，跌幅为1.72%。（总台央视记者 张曼曼） ...

Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil has dropped to its lowest level since February 2021, closing at over $56 per barrel, while Brent crude is around $60 [3] - The decline is attributed to two conflicting signals: the potential for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduces supply disruption risks, and an expected oversupply of crude oil exceeding demand in the coming years [3] - The current drop in oil prices is seen as a short-term emotional release rather than a long-term trend reversal, with the core focus remaining on supply and demand fundamentals [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, rebounding 3.3% after a 3% drop, with a year-to-date increase of 30% [3] - The price increase is driven by supply disruptions in copper mining and long-term demand growth from green energy and electrical infrastructure projects [3] - Analysts predict that even amid global economic concerns, copper demand may exceed expectations, leading to potential shortages by 2026 [3] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices remain stable near record highs, influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations and safe-haven demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices reflect market reactions to tech stock profit-taking, but the overall trend remains supported by expectations of future interest rate cuts and global economic uncertainty [4] - Investors are advised to wait for a pullback before making significant investments in gold, considering it as a stabilizing asset in their portfolio [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The core strategy for long-term investors is to focus on fundamentals, with oil prices affected by geopolitical news but ultimately driven by supply-demand dynamics [4] - Copper's price stability is supported by ongoing demand from the green energy sector, indicating a strong long-term trend [4] - Gold serves as a "ballast" in asset allocation, and investors should avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract is expected to show a weak - running trend. In the short - term, it is weak; in the medium - term, it is oscillating; and on the day, it is also weak. The market is dominated by weak supply - demand fundamentals [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Trend - The domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend in the night session last Friday, with the futures price slightly rising 0.59% to 459.6 yuan/barrel. It is expected to maintain a weak trend on Monday [5] Driving Logic - Some Fed officials have made hawkish remarks. The ongoing US government shutdown may delay the release of October CPI data and impact the US economic resilience. They suggest no interest - rate cuts before Powell's term ends in May 2026. As geopolitical sentiment fades, the domestic and foreign crude oil futures markets are back to the supply - demand fundamental - driven market [5]

Core Viewpoint - International crude oil prices have been experiencing a downward trend, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures hitting new lows since early May 2023, indicating a significant market shift [1][2] Group 1: Price Movement - As of October 10, Brent crude futures and WTI crude futures reached lows of $62 per barrel and $58.22 per barrel, respectively, marking a cumulative decline of over 5% since the beginning of October [1] - By October 14, Brent and WTI prices were reported at $62.67 per barrel and $58.88 per barrel, respectively, continuing the downward trend [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Short-term fluctuations in the oil market are heavily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with recent risk aversion in financial markets leading to a decline in risk assets, including crude oil [1] - Despite a technical rebound in oil prices following a recovery in market sentiment, the rebound strength in crude oil is notably weaker compared to the stock market, primarily due to fundamental supply and demand pressures [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical factors have historically provided support for oil prices; however, the recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza has diminished the geopolitical risk premium in the oil market [1] - As time progresses, weakening demand and increasing supply are expected to exert further pressure on oil prices [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The core factor suppressing oil prices in the near term will be the supply-demand fundamentals, especially if no new geopolitical disturbances occur [2] - Brent crude prices have fallen to a low range of $60 to $65 per barrel, and there is a possibility of prices testing the $60 per barrel support level again [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is "oscillating" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, compensatory production cuts offset some pessimistic sentiment, the summer consumption peak season ends, US inventories accumulate, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthens. Short - term oil prices will still show an oscillating performance [3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an overall increase in global crude oil production. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid production to be 10,553 million barrels per day, up 2.34 million barrels per day from 2024. In August, OPEC countries' crude oil production increased compared to July according to different reports [3] - **Demand (Medium - long term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all have neutral to slightly positive views on demand. EIA expects 2025 global crude oil and related liquid demand to be 10,381 million barrels per day, up 0.9 million barrels per day from 2024 [3] - **Inventory (Short term)**: US commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.939 million barrels to 425 million barrels in the week ending September 5, with various refined oil inventories also showing different changes [3] - **Industrial Policy (Medium - long term)**: OPEC+ agreed to increase production again in October 2025, with a daily increase of about 137,000 barrels. Some OPEC+ countries need to compensate for excess production [3] - **Geopolitics (Short term)**: The conflict between Ukraine and Russia continues to escalate, and Trump's statement about possible new tariffs on Asian and Indian buyers of Russian oil add geopolitical premium to oil prices [3] - **Macro - finance (Short term)**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, with the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut rising from 8% to 11.9% and a 25 - basis - point cut at 88.1% [3] - **Investment View**: Oil prices will show an oscillating performance [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see [3] 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: Short - term geopolitical disturbances led to a halt in the decline and an oscillating trend of international oil prices. As of September 12, WTI crude oil rose by $0.63 per barrel (+1.02%), Brent crude oil rose by $1.21 per barrel (+1.84%), and SC crude oil fell by 6.7 yuan per barrel (-1.39%) [8] - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: Month - spreads weakened, and internal - external spreads declined [11] - **Forward Curve**: The near - month curve declined and weakened [24] - **Crack Spread**: Gasoline and diesel crack spreads declined [27] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - demand Fundamental Data - **Production**: In August, OPEC production increased, non - OPEC countries' production also increased, and the US weekly crude oil production was 13.495 million barrels per day. However, the US production showed a decline in exports and an increase in domestic production [45][55][79] - **Inventory**: US commercial inventories increased by 393,900 barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 365,000 barrels, Northwest European crude oil inventories rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventories declined [80][90] - **Demand**: In the US, gasoline implied demand decreased significantly, and refinery operating rates fluctuated slightly. In China, refinery capacity utilization rebounded slightly [107][116] - **Macro - finance**: US Treasury yields declined, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September strengthened [138] - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of speculative traders in WTI crude oil decreased [147]

Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has led to significant concerns regarding the stability of the oil supply chain, resulting in a sharp increase in international oil prices, with Brent and WTI crude oil futures experiencing their largest single-day gains in over three years, rising by more than 13% at one point [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Domestic energy futures in China surged collectively following the spike in international oil prices, with domestic crude oil futures hitting the limit up and closing nearly 8% higher, while fuel futures rose over 7% and low-sulfur fuel oil futures increased by more than 5% [2]. - Geopolitical risks have become the primary driver of the oil market, with market sentiment likely to support high oil prices in the short term. The recent U.S. CPI data being lower than expected has weakened the dollar, further contributing to the upward momentum in oil prices [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current geopolitical tensions are primarily driven by concerns over potential disruptions in Iranian oil supply, which is currently at approximately 1.5 million barrels per day. A short-term disruption of this level could lead to a price premium of $3 to $4 per barrel, indicating that current prices may be significantly overvalued [4]. - Despite the short-term boost from geopolitical events, the long-term outlook for the oil market will likely revert to supply and demand fundamentals, with existing oversupply pressures remaining unaddressed [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Following the recent price surge, both Brent and WTI crude oil futures have broken through key resistance levels, indicating strong upward momentum. Brent crude has stabilized above $70 per barrel, which was previously a strong resistance level, while WTI has surpassed $72 per barrel [9]. - If oil prices maintain above $70 per barrel, the technical outlook remains bullish, with potential resistance levels identified between $80 and $82.5 per barrel for Brent, and $80 per barrel for WTI, suggesting that further geopolitical tensions could drive prices higher [9].