原油月报： 地缘持续扰动，等待美伊谈判靴子落地 从业资格号：Z0021323 日期：20260227 分析师：郭艳鹏 中辉期货研究院 能化化工团队： 郭建锋 Z0022887 郭艳鹏 Z0021323 李 倩 F03134406 中辉期货有限公司交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 时间:2026年2月27日 目录 C o n t e n t s 行情回顾与展望 宏观经济 供需和库存 价差和持仓 总结 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 原油行情回顾 4 原油3月行情展望 【观点及策略】2月份，地缘政治仍主导油价走势，美伊双方展开三轮谈判，市场预期谈判达成协议概率较低， 油价走强。展望3月份，全球原油消费淡季到来，全球炼厂进入检修高峰期，需求端偏利空，供给端，OPEC+将于 3月初召开会议，消息人士称OPEC+或继续增产，届时供需基本面偏宽松，油价下行压力较大。油价上行动力仍来 自地缘政治，3月2日，美伊继续谈判，关注谈判最终落地情况。策略上，建议期权双买策略，或等待美伊谈判落 地后进行反套操作。 【地缘】美伊双方于2月开启三轮谈判，分别是2026年2月6日于阿曼首都马斯喀特、2月17日和2月2 ...

| X | | --- | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 【行情回顾】 | 2 | | | 【市场展望】 | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | 3 | | | 二、供应概况 | 4 | | | 三、需求概况 | 8 | | | 四、库存与估值 10 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 12 | | | 免责声明 | 13 | | 能化板块研发报告 原油 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 地缘博弈下的风险溢价 交易咨询业务资格： 2026 年 2 月，持续受到美国伊朗地缘政治紧张局势影响，国际油价整体 呈现偏强震荡格局。市场为伊朗供应中断的可能性定价，布伦特原油更是涨 超 70 美元/桶的位置，预估当前风险溢价高达 8-12 美元/桶。其中，美国 WTI 原油期货价格于 2 月 25 日收于 65.42 美元/桶，较上月同期上涨约 7.9%； 英国布伦特原油期货收于 70.85 美元/桶，较上月同期上涨 8%左右。 地缘政治风险仍然是本月核心驱动，美国对伊朗核问 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - This week, crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to the Iranian situation, with the monthly spread declining and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The first round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations on Friday was considered a good start by Iran, and a second round is expected in the coming days. Fundamentally, global oil inventories decreased this week. The US commercial crude oil inventory showed the impact of the cold wave, with a reduction of 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventories down 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted its official selling prices for Arab Light crude oil. In the short term, oil prices are still affected by the Iranian situation, and there is an oversupply in the global crude oil market in Q1 and Q2, which does not support high valuations. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily News - US President Trump stated that aside from insisting on continuing negotiations with Iran to see if an agreement could be reached, no decisions were made during the meeting with Netanyahu. - JPMorgan expects Venezuela's oil production to reach 2 million barrels per day in the next few years. - Iran's Supreme Leader's advisor said Iran is in consultations with the US to determine the time for the next round of negotiations and that the US seems willing to reach an agreement. [3][4] 3.2 Inventory - According to the EIA report on February 6, US crude oil exports decreased by 308,000 barrels per day to 3.739 million barrels per day. - US domestic crude oil production increased by 498,000 barrels to 13.713 million barrels per day. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 8.53 million barrels to 429 million barrels, a 2.03% increase. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.827 million barrels per day, a 2.36% increase compared to the same period last year. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 100,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.0% decrease. - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 6.805 million barrels per day, an increase of 604,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. [4] 3.3 Weekly View - Crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to the Iranian situation this week, with the monthly spread and North Sea Brent basis declining. - The first round of US - Iran nuclear negotiations on Friday was a good start, and a second round is expected soon. - Globally, total oil inventories decreased this week. In the US, commercial crude oil and refined oil inventories decreased. - Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arab Light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil inventories increased; in ARA, crude oil inventories decreased, refined oil inventories decreased, and diesel and gasoline inventories increased. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories increased. - In the short term, oil prices are affected by the Iranian situation, and the global crude oil market in Q1 and Q2 remains in an oversupply state, not supporting high valuations. [5]

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货原油早报-2026-02-09 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 地缘风险升温，原油震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：近期供需基本面的边际改善提供坚实支撑。OPEC+八大主要产油国明确宣布 2026 年 3 月 继续暂停增产，产量维持 2025 年 12 月水平，有效缓解了市场对于供应过剩的担忧。同时，美国冬 季风暴持续影响原油生产，上周原油库存减 ...

郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局并未改变。他预计，全球原油供需平衡的实质性拐点可能出现在2026年一 季度之后，届时供给增长受限与需求季节性回暖或共同为油价提供上行动力。 进入2026年，国际原油市场风云再起。受伊朗局势影响，布伦特原油价格一度突破70美元/桶关口，在 不到一个月的时间内累计反弹超过10美元/桶，成为近半年来最为强劲的一轮上涨。 市场普遍认为，近期美国在中东地区的军事行动，加剧了市场对伊朗原油供应可能中断的担忧。然而， 在"火热"的盘面之下，能化研究员在接受期货日报记者采访时却冷静地表示，全球原油市场供需宽松的 基本格局并未发生根本性扭转，当前涨幅已蕴含较高的地缘风险溢价，需警惕市场情绪退潮后的回调风 险。 "中东地缘局势对油价的影响主要包括两个方面。"中辉期货能化研究员郭艳鹏分析道，"一是伊朗自身 的原油供应，其产量已达350万桶/日，出口量约160万桶/日；二是其毗邻的霍尔木兹海峡，作为全球石 油贸易咽喉要道，日均通过量巨大。"他表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间布伦特油价因地缘风险带来的溢 价在15美元/桶左右，而本轮自1月初以来的上涨幅度已超10美元/桶，已经接近上一轮冲突的溢价幅 度。 海证 ...

海证期货能化研究员郑梦琦也持相似观点。她表示，2025年6月以伊冲突期间，原油市场对地缘风险的 反应和消退都较为迅速。当前原油市场供需过剩，若伊朗地缘风险并未进一步实质性发酵，其带来的风 险溢价将逐步回落，弱势的基本面会重新压制油价。 尽管地缘事件吸引了市场的绝大部分目光，但分析师们均认为，决定油价中长期走向的基石仍是供需基 本面。从供给端看，上述两位研究员均指出短期存在一些扰动因素，如哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田的意外停 产、美国极寒天气导致的产量短暂下降等，但这些影响被普遍认为是"暂时的"。郑梦琦表示，美国原油 产量仍处于历史高位，冬季风暴的影响短暂，港口流量已快速恢复。长期来看，OPEC+在一季度结束 后存在潜在的增产预期，全球原油供应预计较为充足。 需求侧则呈现出结构性分化。郑梦琦表示，成品油需求中，柴油相对较强，形成一定支撑，但汽柴油整 体需求相对较弱，"新能源替代旧能源是大势所趋，新能源车销量占比已超过传统燃油车，柴油重卡的 市场份额也在被侵蚀"。她引用国际能源署（IEA）的预测称，2026年汽油和柴油的需求同比增速仅有 0.3%和0.8%，全球原油库存将攀升至相对高位。 郭艳鹏认为供给过剩的大格局 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks are the core factors affecting the crude oil market. The escalation of US - Iran tensions may lead to supply disruptions and drive up oil prices. If the situation eases, the risk premium in oil prices may quickly disappear. The upside of oil prices may be limited if the situation does not further escalate, but short - term pulse - type price increases may occur due to unexpected events. It is recommended to track geopolitical developments [54] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In January, the crude oil market was strong under geopolitical influence. At the beginning of the month, the US raid on Venezuela and the detention of President Maduro raised concerns about supply disruptions, supporting short - term price increases. Then, the US hinted at relaxing sanctions on Venezuela, causing a drop in oil prices. Subsequently, rising Middle - East geopolitical risks, such as Trump's military threat to Iran and the deployment of US warships, pushed up oil prices again [7] 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 Geopolitical Tensions - The US detained Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife. A large number of US military planes flew to Europe, and Iran strengthened its combat readiness. Trump is considering new major strikes against Iran. As the US completes military deployment in the Middle East, the risk of intensified geopolitical tensions is rising. The way of US military intervention will determine the impact on oil prices [10] - The US, Russia, and Ukraine held their first tripartite talks, but there were still significant differences on the issue of Ukrainian territory. The situation is expected to continue with a combination of fighting and negotiation, and the direct impact on oil prices is currently limited [11] 3.2.2 OPEC+ Production Policy - OPEC+ continued to suspend production increases in January and reaffirmed the plan to pause production increases in the first quarter. The total OPEC+ crude oil production in December decreased compared to November. The suspension of production increases and over - quota cuts support oil prices. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of rising oil prices and Middle - East tensions on OPEC+ production policies [14] 3.2.3 Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve paused interest rate cuts, but there were internal disagreements. The Fed upgraded its assessment of the US economy. Powell said that interest rate cuts depend on the labor market. Although the market has priced in the pause of rate cuts, expectations of future rate cuts may rise due to Trump's potential appointment of a new Fed chairman [17] 3.3 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - OPEC's crude oil production increased in December, but the growth rate slowed down. After the end of the first - quarter production - increase suspension, attention should be paid to changes in OPEC+ production policies [18] - US crude oil production decreased from the previous month as of January 23, and is expected to remain stable at a high level [21] - The number of US oil rigs decreased slightly, and it is expected to remain at a low level [24] 3.3.2 Demand - In December, the US manufacturing PMI decreased and was below the boom - bust line, which suppressed crude oil demand to some extent. The US refinery utilization rate decreased seasonally, but is expected to rise in the second quarter [26][31] - In December, China's manufacturing PMI increased and was above the boom - bust line. The production side was relatively stable, but the demand side was weak. The operating rates of Chinese refineries showed a differentiation trend, and overall domestic crude oil consumption is expected to slightly improve [39][43] 3.3.3 Inventory - The US EIA crude oil inventory faced the pressure of seasonal accumulation. The Cushing crude oil inventory decreased slightly, and the gasoline inventory reached an inflection point [48][52]

Group 1 - The core event involves the U.S. military action against Venezuela, leading to the capture of President Maduro and his wife, with the U.S. stating it will "manage" Venezuela until a "safe" transition occurs [1] - Venezuela, despite having the largest proven oil reserves globally (approximately 300 billion barrels, accounting for 17% of the world's total), currently produces only about 1 million barrels per day, which is roughly 1% of international supply [1][2] - The impact of Venezuela's situation on global oil prices is expected to be limited due to its small share in the global market and the nature of its oil, which requires extensive processing to be marketable [2] Group 2 - The core factors influencing international oil prices remain supply and demand dynamics, with predictions indicating a continued oversupply situation through 2026, driven by geopolitical factors and a shift towards renewable energy sources [2] - In contrast, the gold market is experiencing increased demand as investors seek safe-haven assets, with gold prices reaching new highs recently [3] - Central banks are projected to increase their gold purchases, with an expected net buying of 950 tons in 2026, which supports the bullish outlook for gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The impact of U.S. military actions against Venezuela on oil prices has eased, with investors shifting focus to the supply and demand fundamentals of crude oil, leading to a general expectation of sufficient supply in the oil market by 2026 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - On Tuesday, February futures for light crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $57.13 per barrel, reflecting a decline of 2.04% [1] - March futures for Brent crude oil in London settled at $60.70 per barrel, showing a decrease of 1.72% [1]

Group 1: Oil Market - WTI crude oil has dropped to its lowest level since February 2021, closing at over $56 per barrel, while Brent crude is around $60 [3] - The decline is attributed to two conflicting signals: the potential for a peace agreement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which reduces supply disruption risks, and an expected oversupply of crude oil exceeding demand in the coming years [3] - The current drop in oil prices is seen as a short-term emotional release rather than a long-term trend reversal, with the core focus remaining on supply and demand fundamentals [3] Group 2: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a V-shaped recovery, rebounding 3.3% after a 3% drop, with a year-to-date increase of 30% [3] - The price increase is driven by supply disruptions in copper mining and long-term demand growth from green energy and electrical infrastructure projects [3] - Analysts predict that even amid global economic concerns, copper demand may exceed expectations, leading to potential shortages by 2026 [3] Group 3: Gold Market - Gold prices remain stable near record highs, influenced by Federal Reserve policy expectations and safe-haven demand [4] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices reflect market reactions to tech stock profit-taking, but the overall trend remains supported by expectations of future interest rate cuts and global economic uncertainty [4] - Investors are advised to wait for a pullback before making significant investments in gold, considering it as a stabilizing asset in their portfolio [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The core strategy for long-term investors is to focus on fundamentals, with oil prices affected by geopolitical news but ultimately driven by supply-demand dynamics [4] - Copper's price stability is supported by ongoing demand from the green energy sector, indicating a strong long-term trend [4] - Gold serves as a "ballast" in asset allocation, and investors should avoid being swayed by short-term market fluctuations [4]