Group 1: PMI Overview - In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity[1] - The construction business activity index was at 50.6%, down from 52.8%, while the services business activity index remained stable at 50.0%[1] Group 2: Production and Demand Factors - The production index for July was 50.5%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from June, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, indicating contraction[2] - New export orders dropped to 47.1%, reflecting a decline in external demand, with the U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI falling from 52.9% to 49.5%[2] Group 3: Price Indices and Material Costs - The PMI output price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%, and the raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, indicating rising material costs[3] - The price increase was attributed to the initial success of curbing excessive competition, with 11 out of 16 industries experiencing price increases[3] Group 4: Inventory and Procurement Trends - The inventory indices for finished goods and raw materials both declined, with finished goods at 47.4% and raw materials at 47.7%, indicating a contraction in inventory levels[4] - Procurement volume fell to 49.5%, also entering the contraction zone, suggesting companies are maintaining low inventory levels in response to short-term demand[4] Group 5: Business Size and Sector Performance - The PMI for small enterprises dropped significantly to 46.4%, while large and medium enterprises saw minor changes, indicating pressure on smaller businesses[4] - The non-manufacturing sector also experienced a decline, with the construction PMI falling to 50.6% and the services PMI slightly decreasing to 50.0%[4] Group 6: Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, the PMI reflects resilience in the economy, with production remaining in the expansion zone[5] - Future demand may improve due to policies aimed at boosting consumption, although external demand is expected to continue declining[5]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In July 2025, China's manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from June[1] - The new orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[2] - The production index was at 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, still in the expansion zone but affected by weak demand[2] Group 2: External and Internal Demand Factors - Weak external demand was reflected in the new export orders index, which dropped by 0.6 percentage points[2] - Domestic consumption growth has slowed, influenced by the real estate market adjustments and reduced effectiveness of previous growth-stimulating policies[2] - The service sector PMI was at 50.0%, down 0.1 percentage points, with tourism-related sectors performing well but overall service sector affected by real estate cooling[4] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The overall economic pressure is increasing, with manufacturing PMI indicating a downturn after two months of recovery[5] - The central political bureau meeting emphasized the need for sustained macroeconomic policy support in the second half of the year[5] - Potential policy measures may include interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending to boost domestic demand and counteract external demand slowdown[5]

2025 年 7 月 PMI 点评 7 月 PMI 的不寻常 2025 年 07 月 31 日 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525070001 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：zhongyumei@mszq.com ➢ 不过"反内卷"对于价格预期反而是件好事。相较于 PMI 生产指数，供给 侧改革对于企业价格预期的改善更加"立竿见影"，7 月 PMI 两大价格指标的同 步上升也证明了这一点（其中 PMI 原材料购进价格指数环比上升 3.1pct、录得 51.5%；PMI 出厂价格指数环比上升 2.1pct、录得 48.3%）。需要注意的是，价 格预期的边际回暖并非代表价格的实质性改善，距离 PPI 增速真正的由负转正尚 待时日。 ➢ 前期出口需求的透支效应开始显现，7 月 PMI 传达出口放缓的信号。7 月 PMI 新出口订单指数转升为降，录得 47.1%（环比-0.6pct），与 7 月高频数据一 样显现出出口放缓的信号。无论是我国港口货运量"季节性"回落时点的提前、 还是洛杉矶港的进口量转升为降，均说明前期强劲"抢出口"对于需求的提前透 支效果现已逐步显现。 ...

国家统计局7月31日发布数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月 下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上 月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI有所回落 "7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至 49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。"国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河表示。 图片来源：国家统计局 生产指数保持扩张。赵庆河表示，7月份，生产指数和新订单指数分别为50.5%和49.4%，比 上月下降0.5和0.8个百分点，制造业生产活动继续保持扩张，市场需求有所放缓。市场预期回 升。7月份，生产经营活动预期指数为52.6%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，制造业企业对近期 市场发展信心有所增强。 赵庆河表示，服务业商务活动指数总体稳定。7月份，服务业商务活动指数为50%，比上月略 降0.1个百分点。从行业看，在暑期假日效应带动下，与居民出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航 空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间 ...

Economic Overview - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.1%, also down by 0.4 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in growth [1] - The composite PMI output index is at 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points, but still above the critical point, suggesting overall expansion in business activities [1] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The new orders index for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points, indicating a tightening in market demand [3] - The new export orders index is reported at 47.1%, down 0.6 percentage points, further highlighting weak demand [3] - Despite the demand weakness, the production index remains at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in manufacturing activities for the third consecutive month [3] - The raw material purchase price index has risen to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, suggesting a recovery in raw material prices [3] Price Trends - The ex-factory price index for manufactured goods is at 48.3%, up 2.1 percentage points, marking the second-highest point this year [3] - The basic raw materials sector is driving the stabilization and recovery of market prices, with the purchase price index rising over 7 percentage points to 52% [4] Business Confidence and Expectations - The production and business activity expectation index is at 52.6%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points, indicating improved confidence among manufacturing enterprises [4] - Large enterprises maintain a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises show improvement with a PMI of 49.5%, and small enterprises have a PMI of 46.4%, indicating varying levels of economic health across different company sizes [4] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.1%, reflecting a slowdown but still within the expansion range [8] - The construction sector's business activity index is at 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points, indicating a slowdown due to seasonal weather impacts [8] - Consumer spending during the summer shows positive trends, with retail and postal service indices rising above 50% and 60%, respectively, indicating strong consumer purchasing intentions [9] Future Outlook - The construction sector is expected to rebound post-rainy season, with infrastructure activities projected to continue steady growth [8][9] - The overall economic foundation remains solid, with expectations for continued stable expansion and quality improvement in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing macroeconomic policies [5]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 49.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [1][2] - The production index remained in expansion at 50.5%, while the new orders index fell to 49.4%, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [2] - Large enterprises maintained expansion with a PMI of 50.3%, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 49.5%, and small enterprises decreased to 46.4% [3] Group 2: Price Indices - The price index for major raw materials increased, with the purchasing price index at 51.5% and the factory price index at 48.3%, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [2] - The purchasing price index for major raw materials rose above the critical point for the first time since March, suggesting a recovery in market conditions [2] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion [1][4] - The service sector's business activity index remained stable at 50.0%, with certain industries like transportation and entertainment showing strong growth due to seasonal effects [4] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 50.6%, influenced by adverse weather conditions, while the business activity expectation index for the service sector rose to 56.6%, indicating optimism among service enterprises [4] Group 4: Composite PMI - The composite PMI output index was 50.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicating overall expansion in production and business activities [5][6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index contributed to the composite PMI, standing at 50.5% and 50.1% respectively [6]

国家统计局7月31日发布数据显示，7月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.3%，比上月下降0.4个百分点；非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数 分别为50.1%和50.2%，比上月下降0.4和0.5个百分点，均持续高于临界点，我国经济总体产出保持扩张。 制造业PMI有所回落 "7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，PMI降至49.3%，制造业景气水平较上月回落。"国家统计局服务业调查 中心高级统计师赵庆河表示。 图片来源：国家统计局 非制造业商务活动指数保持扩张 数据显示，7月份，非制造业商务活动指数为50.1%，比上月下降0.4个百分点，仍高于临界点。 图片来源：国家统计局 赵庆河表示，服务业商务活动指数总体稳定。7月份，服务业商务活动指数为50%，比上月略降0.1个百分点。从行业看，在暑期假日效应带动下，与居民 出行和消费相关的铁路运输、航空运输、邮政、文化体育娱乐等行业商务活动指数位于60.0%以上高位景气区间，业务总量较快增长。从市场预期看，7 月份，业务活动预期指数为56.6%，比上月上升0.6个百分点，表明多数服务业企业对市场预期较为乐观。 建筑业商务活动 ...

统计局解读：7月份，受制造业进入传统生产淡季，部分地区高温、暴雨洪涝灾害等因素影响，制造业PMI回落。主要原材料购进价格指数自今年3月份以来首次升至临界点以上，制造业市场价格总体水平有所改善。房地产、居民服务等行业商务活动指数均低于临界点，景气度偏弱。 ...

Group 1 - Key Point 1: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision, which could impact market expectations and investor sentiment [1] - Key Point 2: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference from Chairman Jerome Powell, indicating potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy [1] - Key Point 3: China's official manufacturing PMI for July will be released, providing insights into the health of the manufacturing sector and economic activity [1] Group 2 - Key Point 1: Switzerland's actual retail sales year-on-year for June will be reported, which may reflect consumer spending trends in the region [1] - Key Point 2: The press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will be closely watched for insights on future monetary policy direction [1] - Key Point 3: France's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is crucial for understanding inflation trends in the Eurozone [1] Group 3 - Key Point 1: Germany's seasonally adjusted unemployment figures for July will be published, providing a snapshot of the labor market [1] - Key Point 2: The Eurozone's unemployment rate for June will be reported, which is essential for assessing economic stability in the region [1] - Key Point 3: The Challenger Job Cut Report for July will indicate the number of layoffs in the U.S., offering insights into employment trends [1] Group 4 - Key Point 1: Germany's preliminary CPI month-on-month for July will be released, which is important for gauging inflationary pressures [1] - Key Point 2: Canada's GDP month-on-month for May will be reported, providing insights into economic growth [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending July 26 will be published, which is a key indicator of labor market health [1] Group 5 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index year-on-year for June will be released, which is a critical measure of inflation [1] - Key Point 2: The U.S. personal spending month-on-month for June will be reported, indicating consumer behavior and economic activity [1] - Key Point 3: The U.S. labor cost index quarter-on-quarter for Q2 will be published, which is important for understanding wage pressures [1] Group 6 - Key Point 1: The U.S. core PCE price index month-on-month for June will be released, providing further insights into inflation trends [1] - Key Point 2: The Chicago PMI for July will be published, which is a key indicator of manufacturing activity in the U.S. [1] - Key Point 3: The EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending July 25 will be reported, which is significant for energy market dynamics [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - Bank - to - bank major interest - rate bond yields generally rose by about 4bp; Treasury bond futures closed sharply lower, with the 30 - year main contract down 0.78% and the 10 - year main contract down 0.25%. The yields of bank "secondary and perpetual bonds" generally rose by about 4bp. The central bank made continuous net injections in the open market, and the short - term liquidity in the inter - bank market further eased. The weighted average rate of DR001 dropped by about 10bp to around 1.36%. Recently, the sharply falling commodity futures showed signs of stabilizing, and the stock market continued to fluctuate strongly, expanding its gains in the afternoon, suppressing the risk - aversion sentiment. In addition, rumors about the Politburo meeting focusing on "anti - involution" also had a certain negative impact. Continued attention should be paid to the final meeting content and the progress of China - US negotiations [3] - On July 29, the People's Bank of China conducted 449.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The bid volume was 449.2 billion yuan, and the winning volume was 449.2 billion yuan. According to Wind data, 214.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on that day, resulting in a net injection of 234.4 billion yuan for the day [3] - The main basis of TS is 0.0139, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TF is 0.0286, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of T is 0.1589, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The main basis of TL is 0.3153, with the spot bond at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3] - The balances of deliverable bonds for the main contracts of TS, TF, and T are 1.3594 trillion, 1.4935 trillion, and 2.3599 trillion respectively; it is neutral [4] - The main contract of TS is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of TF is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish. The main contract of T is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [4] - The main contract of TS has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of TF has a net long position, and the long position increases. The main contract of T has a net long position, and the long position decreases [5] - In June, the three major PMI indices all rebounded, the year - on - year CPI turned positive, and the core CPI continued to rise. China's LPR in July remained unchanged for the second consecutive month. In the first half of the year, the total financial volume increased reasonably, and China's credit total... (incomplete information in the original text) [6] Group 2: Market Review - The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contract market element table shows that for T2509, the current price is 108.130, down 0.25%, with a trading volume of 77,800, an open interest of 187,214, a daily open - interest change of - 625, and the CTD bond is 240013.IB; for TF2509, the current price is 105.545, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 59,900, an open interest of 148,330, a daily open - interest change of - 32, and the CTD bond is 240001.IB; for TS2509, the current price is 102.302, down 0.06%, with a trading volume of 40,300, an open interest of 98,505, a daily open - interest change of - 2929, and the CTD bond is 240012.IB; for TL2509, the current price is 117.87, down 0.78%, with a trading volume of 140,800, an open interest of 120,771, a daily open - interest change of + 488, and the CTD bond is 200012.IB [9] Group 3: Cash Bond Analysis - There are data on DR interest rates and inter - bank Treasury bond yields and Treasury bond term spreads, but specific numerical analysis is not clearly summarized in the given text [10][14] Group 4: Basis Analysis - There are basis analysis charts for T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 CTD bonds, showing the basis trends from December 16, 2024, to May 20, 2025 [17][18][20]