Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view of treasury bond futures is to oscillate. In the short - term, they are likely to be in an oscillatory consolidation phase with limited upside and downside potential. In the medium - term, they are expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, there is a relatively high possibility of an upward trend [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is weakly oscillatory, and the overall view is oscillatory. The core logic is that there are still long - and medium - term expectations for interest rate cuts, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view for varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS is weakly oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded oscillatoryly yesterday. Recently, the stock market has entered a short - term adjustment, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. Market interest rates are restricted by policy rates, limiting their upward space and causing treasury bond futures to bottom out. However, due to the lack of necessity for a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut and the focus on structural easing, the short - term rebound space of treasury bond futures is limited. In the future, the monetary policy environment is generally loose, and with the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, the depreciation pressure on the RMB exchange rate has weakened, leaving room for interest rate cuts and increasing the long - term upward possibility of treasury bond futures [5].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices have risen for six consecutive trading days, reaching a historical high, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and increased risk aversion [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is seen as a critical indicator, with a consensus of approximately 75,000 new jobs expected, which could influence monetary policy [2] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for gold, with key support levels at 3450 and 3470, while resistance is noted at 3578-3590 [3][5] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing a downward trend, with Brent crude oil slightly down to $69.13 per barrel and WTI at $65.63, influenced by new U.S. sanctions on shipping networks related to Iranian oil [6] - The oil market is supported by sanctions and declining inventories, but economic data weakness poses a risk to demand outlook [6] - Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook for oil, with short-term upward movement expected, but a longer-term downward trend remains probable [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in government bond futures indicates a tightening in the bond market, influenced by various economic factors and central bank operations [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.18% [1]. - The interbank market saw major interest rate bonds experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the ultra-long end showing slight weakness [1]. Group 2: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 255.7 billion, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.1 billion, maintaining an overall balanced funding situation in the interbank market [1]. - The central bank's liquidity injection in August included a net MLF injection of 300 billion, a net withdrawal of 160.8 billion in pledged supplementary loans (PSL), and a net injection of 300 billion in reverse repos, with no public market bond transactions conducted [1]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. ISM manufacturing index rose slightly from 48 in July to 48.7 in August, but remained below market expectations of 49, marking six consecutive months below the growth threshold [1]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The overall financial market risk appetite has rebounded recently, putting pressure on the bond market. However, as government bond issuance gradually passes its peak, supply pressure in the bond market is expected to ease [3]. - Geopolitical factors and changes in trade policies present significant uncertainties that could impact the global economic landscape and financial environment, potentially benefiting the bond market due to increased risk aversion [3]. - It is suggested to consider building long positions on dips, while monitoring manufacturing PMIs from China and the U.S., as well as price indicators from the Eurozone [3].

ATFX贵金属：鲍威尔暗示降息，国际避险情绪陡升，黄金站稳3500美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在8月份的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表示："今 年劳动力增长已大幅放缓，可能需要调整我们的政策立场"。此番讲话被市场解读为鲍威尔暗示将会降息。9月17日，美联储将公布最新一 期利率决议，主流预期认为将降息25基点。昨日黄金大涨，市价从3470美元涨破3500美元关口，今日最高触及最高3546美元，创出历史新 高，累计涨幅超2%，金价有效站稳在3500美元重要关口。 ▲ATFX图 正是从鲍威尔暗示降息开始，黄金出现单边涨势。8月20日，伦敦金跌至阶段性低点3311美元，随后开始上涨，今日最高触及3546美元，累 计涨幅超过7%，远超市场预期。一旦美联储开始降息，意味着官方承认宏观经济存在衰退风险，需要降低利率以提振经济。市场资金从股 市转向避险市场。 技术角度看，日线级别，4月22日以来的收敛三角形结构已经被最新的上涨波段破坏。8月27日K线上破三角形上轨，28日长阳线确认有效 突破，随后迎来连续四个交易日的大幅拉升。最新市价在3530美元附近波动，距离下一个阻力区间3546~3568（对应2.382~2.618的黄金分 割区域） ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing upward momentum due to increased market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties, with Shanghai gold futures closing at 814.88 yuan per gram, up 1.31% on September 3 [1] - The Shanghai gold spot price is reported at 809.48 yuan per gram, reflecting a discount of 5.4 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1] - The announcement by Trump regarding a potential appeal on tariff decisions has heightened market volatility and boosted safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 2 - Institutional views suggest that precious metals are showing strength despite a strong dollar, with New York gold futures rising 2.2% to a record high of 3602.40 USD per ounce [2] - The outlook for precious metals remains bullish, with gold expected to maintain a strong oscillating pattern, targeting the psychological level of 3600 USD and potentially reaching 3620-3650 USD [2] - Silver prices are also following gold's upward trend, with New York silver futures increasing by 86.9 cents, indicating a supportive market sentiment [2]

Gold Sector - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for August recorded at 48.7, slightly above the previous value of 48 but below market expectations of 49, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for six consecutive months due to tariff policies [1] - Recent risk aversion has led to a rise in bond yields, with the UK 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 1998, and similar trends observed in France and Germany, suggesting increased debt levels in the Eurozone [1] - Analysts suggest that weak economic data from the US indicates a potential slowdown in economic growth, while rising risk aversion supports a strong performance in gold prices [1] Oil Sector - With the implementation of US tariff policies, the volatility in oil prices is expected to return to fundamentals, with a likelihood of wide fluctuations due to a lack of significant supply-demand imbalances [2] - Market focus is on the Federal Reserve's expected rate cuts in September and December, which may support oil prices due to a weaker dollar [2] - Oil supply risks are heightened as producing countries fulfill their production commitments, coinciding with the end of the US demand season, potentially putting downward pressure on oil prices [2] Dollar Index - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated that the balance of risks may require adjustments to monetary policy, making a rate cut in September almost certain [3] - Upcoming non-farm payroll and CPI data releases will influence expectations for future rate cuts, potentially slowing the dollar's decline [3] - The dollar index has been in a low-range adjustment since early August, with a possibility of continued fluctuations in the short term [3] Copper Sector - Recent trading days have shown a strong upward trend in copper prices, breaking previous highs, indicating a robust market performance [6] - The 20-day moving average has flattened and begun to rise, suggesting a potential upward shift in price levels [6] - The MACD indicator shows volume returning above the zero line, indicating that the upward trend in copper prices may continue [6]

贵金属的狂欢盛宴还在演绎。 近来，金银价格蒙眼狂奔，资本市场情绪高涨。 周三，港A黄金及贵金属股早盘冲高，不过随后有所回落。 截至发稿，A股西部黄金涨停，招金黄金涨超5%，港股灵宝黄金涨超4%，中金黄金、招金矿业、紫金 矿业等跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601069 | 西部黄金 | 26.51 | +2.41 | 10.00% | 241.51亿 | | 000506 | 招金黄金 | 10.32 | +0.51 | 5.20% | 95.87 Z | | 600489 | 中金黄金 | 18.11 | +0.35 | 1.97% | 877.85 Z | | 600547 | 山东黄金 | 36.29 | +0.38 | 1.06% | 1623.41 Z | | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅 √ | 总市值 | | 03330 | 灵宝黄金 | 16.320 | +0.720 | 4.62% | 210.03亿 | | 01818 | 招金矿业 | ...

基本面分析： 金十数据中心显示，全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)截至09月02日持仓量为990.56吨，较上日增持12.88吨，上月止净增持24.60吨。 债务危机与政治风险交织，英、德、法多国长期国债收益率攀升至多年高位。阿根廷主权债及汇率暴跌，财政部紧急干预汇市。特朗普将请求最高法 院"快速裁决"全球关税案，警告败诉将带来 "前所未见的震荡"，胜诉则股市会大涨。财长贝森特对最高法院支持关税有信心，同时准备备选方案。与此同 时，特朗普持续施压美联储，侵蚀市场对美联储独立性的信心，加剧市场避险情绪，将金银价格推向创纪录高位。美国8月ISM制造业指数48.7，连续六个 月萎缩，新订单略有回暖，价格波动趋缓，产出下滑。市场押注美联储9月降息25基点的概率超92%，迭加黄金消费旺季，金价连涨六日有望再创新高。周 二，长期收益率上行令英镑和日元等非美货币承压，尽管美元指数六个交易日以来首次收涨，但得益于降息预期升温，地缘政治和贸易摩擦下的弹性避险 需求，周二现货黄金大涨收报于3533.25美元/盎司，日内波动于3470.16至3540.02美元间。投资者聚焦非农数据，以寻找9月份降息幅度线索，若就业疲软 或触发50 ...

行情回顾： 国际黄金周二（9月2日）大幅收涨，开盘价3474.08美元/盎司，最高价3520.38美元/盎司，最低价3470.15美元/ 盎司，收盘价3520.38美元/盎司。 消息面： 美国8月ISM制造业PMI录得48.7，低于市场预期49，前值为48；美国7月营建支出月率录得-0.1%，符合市场预 期，前值为-0.4%；美国8月标普全球制造业PMI终值录得53，低于市场预期53.3，前值为53.3。 供应管理协会（ISM）制造业商业调查委员会主席苏珊·斯宾塞表示，8月份，美国制造业活动收缩速度略有放 缓，新订单增长是制造业PMI上升0.7个百分点的最大因素。然而，由于生产收缩的速度几乎等于新订单的扩张 速度，制造业PMI的增长是名义上的。四个需求指标中有两个有所改善，新订单和新出口订单指数显示出增 长，而客户库存和未完成订单指数的收缩速度略快。 世界黄金协会市场情报经理Krishan Gopaul指出，市场持续不确定性、对美联储独立性的担忧、九月降息预期 重燃、美国滞胀风险再现以及美元普遍走弱，共同强化了黄金的吸引力。地缘政治紧张局势与关税忧虑进一步 巩固了这一趋势。Gopaul表示，黄金ETF、金条与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold stocks have collectively opened higher, driven by increased safe-haven sentiment and rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as international gold prices hit a new historical high [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Tongguan Gold (00340) rose by 5.24%, trading at HKD 2.41 [1] - Chifeng Gold (06693) increased by 5.08%, trading at HKD 29.4 [1] - Zhaojin Mining (01818) gained 4.4%, trading at HKD 28 [1] - China Gold International (02099) rose by 4.19%, trading at HKD 129.3 [1] - Shandong Gold (01787) increased by 3.63%, trading at HKD 32 [1] - Lingbao Gold (03330) rose by 3.53%, trading at HKD 16.15 [1] Group 2: Market Influences - International gold prices reached a new high, with New York futures gold surpassing USD 3600 per ounce and spot gold rising for six consecutive days, breaking the USD 3540 mark [1] - Weak U.S. economic data and negative evidence regarding Federal Reserve Governor Cook have increased market expectations for future monetary easing, supporting precious metal prices [1] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - The market is awaiting the upcoming non-farm payroll data, which is crucial for the Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision [1] - Morgan Stanley's latest report has set a year-end target price for gold at USD 3800 per ounce, emphasizing the strong negative correlation between gold and the U.S. dollar as a key pricing logic [1] - A continued depreciation of the dollar index is expected to directly benefit precious metals priced in dollars [1]