Price Overview - Today's international gold price surged to $4671.49 per ounce, an increase of $76.72 or 1.67% [1] - Domestic gold price reached 1044.76 CNY per gram, up by 14.1 CNY or 1.37% [1] - Gold 9999 price increased to 1045 CNY per gram, reflecting a rise of 12.37 CNY or 1.2% [1] - Gold 9995 price remained stable at 1024.3 CNY per gram with no change [1] Market Sentiment - The strong rise in gold prices is attributed to heightened market risk aversion, driven by global geopolitical tensions [2] - The weakening of the US dollar has enhanced the attractiveness of gold as an investment [2] - Continuous purchases of gold by central banks worldwide are supporting the upward trend in gold prices [2] Investment Insights - The best time to buy gold is when prices are relatively low, allowing for potential gains as prices rise [3] - Investment options include gold bars and coins for long-term investment, while gold jewelry is more suitable for short-term consumption [3] - Gold recycling prices are typically 15-20 CNY lower per gram than retail prices [3] - International gold prices exhibit significant volatility, whereas domestic prices tend to be more stable [3] Conclusion - The current surge in gold prices presents a favorable opportunity for investment, but it is advised to invest rationally and avoid impulsive buying at high prices [4]

Group 1 - The announcement by President Trump to impose new tariffs on eight European countries has led to increased risk aversion, causing a significant downturn in the cryptocurrency market [1] - Bitcoin experienced a drop of up to 3.6%, falling below $92,000, while Ethereum and Solana saw declines of 4.9% and 8.6% respectively, resulting in a total market cap loss of approximately $100 billion [1] - Following Trump's tariff announcement, U.S. stock index futures fell, while safe-haven assets like gold and silver surged to historical highs [1] Group 2 - European leaders have strongly condemned Trump's statements, with the EU indicating a potential delay in approving a previously reached trade agreement [3] - The cryptocurrency market showed signs of recovery in early 2026 after a prolonged downturn, with Bitcoin prices reaching nearly $98,000 on January 14, driven by significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs [3] - The recent tariff situation has hindered the recovery momentum in the cryptocurrency market, which is viewed as a response to overall market risk aversion rather than an independent trend within the crypto sector [3]

摘要周一(1月19日)亚市尾盘，受特朗普宣布对八个反对其格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家加征关税影响，市 场避险情绪骤升，黄金与白银周一双双刷新历史纪录。现货白银一度暴涨超4%，最高触及93.69美元/盎 司；现货黄金盘中涨逾2%，报4690美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 周一(1月19日)亚市尾盘，受特朗普宣布对八个反对其格陵兰岛计划的欧洲国家加征关税影响，市场避 险情绪骤升，黄金与白银周一双双刷新历史纪录。现货白银一度暴涨超4%，最高触及93.69美元/盎司； 现货黄金盘中涨逾2%，报4690美元/盎司，续创历史新高。 策略师观点分化：瑞穗称关税成"地缘武器"，ING警告欧美贸易战无赢家;Pepperstone认为威胁或 成"TACO时刻"(虎头蛇尾)，回调即买入机会。Kitco调查显示，华尔街对黄金分歧，散户看涨;OANDA 提醒技术超买或致回调，Zaye Capital则看好地缘支撑金价冲4700美元。 此外，美国最高法院本周或裁决特朗普用《国际紧急经济权力法》征关税的合法性，若败诉将削弱其关 税权力，财长贝森特则称"不太可能推翻"。 【技术分析】 当前全球局势波诡云谲，特朗普政策风向瞬息万变。技术面仅作辅助，基本 ...

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a mostly positive trend on January 19, with the main contract for silver futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 22,200.00 yuan/kg and reaching a high of 23,577.00 yuan, marking a 2.18% increase [1] - The market sentiment for silver is currently exhibiting a strong upward trend, with various institutions providing insights on future movements [2] Group 2 - Guotou Anxin Futures noted that recent U.S. economic data reflects resilience, and several Federal Reserve officials have expressed a negative stance on interest rate cuts in the short term, leading to a consensus that rates will remain unchanged in January [2] - The geopolitical situation in Iran remains tense, and U.S. pressure regarding Greenland and tariffs on several European countries are contributing to the ongoing challenges in the global order, which is expected to maintain a bullish outlook for precious metals [2] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) highlighted that the U.S. plans to impose tariffs until the "complete acquisition of Greenland," which has been met with strong opposition from eight European countries, indicating a lack of substantial response from Europe despite rising gold and silver prices [2] - Ningzheng Futures suggested that potential changes in the Federal Reserve chair candidates could disrupt expectations for monetary easing, leading to increased risk aversion and a renewed strength in precious metals, although caution is advised regarding excessive bullish sentiment on silver [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of precious metals is in consolidation, while the medium - term upward trend remains unchanged. The core logic of the market remains intact, with geopolitical turmoil and central bank gold - buying supporting gold prices, and strong industrial demand and supply shortages supporting silver prices. [2][8] Summary by Related Content Precious Metals Price Trends - Last week, gold prices rose to $4,600 per ounce, and silver prices reached a high of $92 per ounce and closed near the high of $90 per ounce. [3] Geopolitical Factors - Trump suspended the military action against Iran, leading to a slight cooling of short - term risk - aversion sentiment. However, the future situation remains uncertain. [3] US Economic Data - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 198,000, lower than market expectations, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The confidence of US homebuilders unexpectedly declined in January, and the market condition index dropped 2 points to 37. US manufacturing output increased by 0.2% in December, and industrial output unexpectedly grew in December with the previous month's value revised upwards. [5] Fed - related Factors - Trump's unwillingness to nominate Hassett as the Federal Reserve Chairman has led to a decrease in the market's expectation of interest - rate cuts, a rebound in the US dollar, and a decline in precious metals and other metal prices. There are many uncertainties in the appointment of the new Fed Chairman, and if the new chairman does not implement aggressive interest - rate cuts, the market's original expectations may change. [7]

Group 1 - Gold stocks were active in the Hong Kong market, with Zijin Mining International rising by 1.87%, Zhaojin Mining increasing by 3.29%, China Gold International up by 1.06%, and Shandong Gold up by 1.33%. The rise in international gold prices, which exceeded $4690 per ounce, was driven by escalating trade disputes between the US and Europe, increasing market risk aversion [1] - Electric equipment stocks collectively rose, with Harbin Electric up by 7.6%, Dongfang Electric increasing by 5.92%, and Shanghai Electric rising by 1.34%. The National Grid Corporation announced a projected fixed asset investment of 4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan, aimed at promoting high-quality development of the new power system supply chain [1] - Tianhong International Group saw a rise of over 5%, with a projected net profit increase of approximately 60% for the year ending December 31, 2025, compared to the previous year [2] Group 2 - China Southern Airlines increased by over 6.2%, with a report indicating a projected growth of 6.6% in available seat kilometers (ASK) and 8.3% in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) for 2025, achieving a passenger load factor of 85.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Zhongyuan Ocean Energy rose by over 6.5%, attributed to rising oil prices and an increase in VLCC Middle East route rates, which reached a TCE of over $60,000 per day [3] - China Duty Free Group increased by over 5.2%, with statistics showing that from December 18, 2025, to January 17, 2026, the duty-free shopping amount reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8% [3] Group 3 - Western Cement rose by over 4.6%, with a report indicating the successful ignition of a 6000T/D clinker cement production line in Uganda, marking the project's entry into trial production [4] - UMC (United Microelectronics Corporation) rose by 6.04% following a strategic partnership with a leading global substrate manufacturer, focusing on high-end manufacturing needs in the AI era [5] - Micron Technology increased by 7.76%, with insider buying reported as a board member purchased 23,200 shares, totaling $7.8 million [7]

消息面上，欧美关税争端升级刺激市场避险情绪升温，周一早盘，国际贵金属价格应声上涨，现货黄金 一度突破4690美元／盎司，刷新历史新高。特朗普周末在社交平台上表示，自2026年2月1日起，丹麦、 挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰出口至美国的所有商品加征10%的关税。他表示，这一关 税措施将持续实施，直至就"完全、彻底购买格陵兰岛"达成协议。若未达成协议，自2026年6月1日起， 这些加征关税的税率将提高至25%。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股早盘活跃，截至发稿，紫金黄金国际(02259)涨3.86%，报172.4港元；招金矿 业(01818)涨3.84%，报37.9港元；中国黄金国际(02099)涨1.96%，报192.8港元；山东黄金(01787)涨 1.33%，报42.78港元。 ...

摘要今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1043.49元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.66元，涨幅 1.42%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1028.73元/克，盘中最高触及1050.02元/克，最低下探至 1028.73元/克。 今日周一(1月19日)亚盘时段，现货黄金最新报价为1043.49元/克，较前一交易日上涨14.66元，涨幅 1.42%，日内呈现强势反弹走势。当日开盘价报1028.73元/克，盘中最高触及1050.02元/克，最低下探至 1028.73元/克。 【要闻速递】 特朗普关税威胁曝光后，丹麦首相弗雷泽里克森迅速与德、法、英等国领导人紧急通话，明确拒绝接受 此类"勒索"。她在社媒强调，丹麦已获广泛国际支持，问题影响远超本国边界，愿以合作而非冲突解决 争端，并对欧洲统一立场表示欣慰，彰显维护主权的决心，为欧洲凝聚共识注入动力。 【最新现货黄金行情解析】 受周末避险情绪推动，特朗普宣布对欧洲八国加征关税并意图争夺格陵兰岛控制权，市场恐慌情绪升 温，现货黄金从周五4594美元附近开盘直接拉升近100美元。当前金价虽延续强势，但短期急涨后需警 惕回调风险，不宜盲目追高。若行情回归 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment is under pressure due to President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on eight European countries opposing the takeover of Greenland, leading to declines in U.S. and European stock index futures and a surge in safe-haven assets like gold and silver [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - European stock index futures fell sharply, with the Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.2% and S&P 500 futures down 0.8% [1]. - Gold prices rose over 1% to $4,661 per ounce, reaching an intraday high of $4,690.75, while silver prices increased over 3% to $92.86 per ounce, peaking at $94.14 [1]. - The U.S. dollar weakened against all G10 currencies, with the largest declines against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen [1]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a 10% tariff on goods from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland starting February 1, with an increase to 25% from June 1 if no agreement is reached regarding Greenland [2]. - European Parliament members indicated that the trade agreement reached last July between the U.S. and Europe would not be approved due to the tariff threats, creating uncertainty in U.S.-EU trade relations [3]. Group 3: Economic Impact - Analysts suggest that the tariff threats could negatively impact European stock market growth, with estimates indicating a potential 2-3 percentage point decline in earnings growth for European stocks [12]. - Companies exposed to global supply chains, such as luxury goods, automotive, and consumer discretionary sectors, may face significant challenges due to the tariffs [12]. - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from the EU on $93 billion worth of U.S. goods is being considered, which could escalate trade tensions further [3]. Group 4: Long-term Perspectives - Some analysts believe that the current situation may serve as a catalyst for Europe to accelerate its strategic autonomy and form new alliances [9]. - The geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties are expected to continue influencing market dynamics, particularly benefiting safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds [6]. - The impact on the euro is expected to be limited, as the U.S. relies heavily on European capital, and any negative effects on the euro may not persist [13].

Report Information - Date: January 19, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Shi Xiuming, Cao Baoqin, Kuai Sanke, Cong Yanfei [3] Core Views - The change in the likely candidate for the Fed Chair may disrupt the expectation of monetary easing, slightly increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - The national pig price is rising, especially in the Northeast, Central, and East China regions. The pig price is expected to move up, but there are risks of decline [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The inventory pressure of iron ore is gradually building up. The supply side has potential disruptions, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The demand for construction materials will seasonally weaken, but steel production will continue to recover. Rebar will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure. Without geopolitical drivers, the oil price is difficult to maintain strength. Short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - The demand for asphalt is still weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is ample in the first quarter. Weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. Soybean meal is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short - term [7]. - The palm oil price is supported by the upcoming decision on 2026 biofuel blending quotas in the US, but is weakened by the expected opening of Canadian rapeseed imports. It is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - The supply of synthetic rubber remains high, and the cost has increased significantly. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The structural monetary easing makes the general reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut difficult to implement in the short - term. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [10]. - The supply of plastics is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable with fluctuations. New production capacity puts pressure on the price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - The copper market has a complex situation with supply growth concerns and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - The aluminum market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality". The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [15] Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Silver**: The possible change of the Fed Chair candidate may disrupt monetary easing expectations, increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. Excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances have slightly decreased, but uncertainties remain. The uncertainty of the Fed Chair candidate increases risk - aversion. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [11]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of January 16, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter was 123.5 kg, up 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 35.83%, down 0.08%. The national pig price is rising, especially in some regions. The price is expected to move up with decline risks [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of January 16, the physical inventory of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 9.94 days, up 0.41 days from the previous period. The supply is ample in Q1, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. It has a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" and is recommended for range trading [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of January 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 410, up 1 from the previous week. The market has oversupply pressure, and short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: As of January 16, the weekly production was 49.7 tons, up 4.44 tons. The demand is weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. Wait - and - see is recommended during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, down 1.89% from the previous week. The supply remains high, the cost has increased, and the downstream resists high prices. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The domestic production is high, the demand is weak, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE was 6916 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The production is high, the new capacity pressure is large, and the demand is average. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 802.2 tons, up 4.47 tons. The downstream winter - storage demand is increasing, and the supply will decrease. The fundamentals will improve, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 9262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The inventory pressure is building up, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points. The demand will seasonally weaken, and it will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Copper**: First Quantum Minerals slightly lowered the copper production guidance for 2026 - 2027. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - **Aluminum**: Ghana's aluminum project has new financing. The market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality", and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [14][15]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank has lowered the re - loan and re - discount rates. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate [9].