Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing aim to stabilize the real estate market by optimizing purchase restrictions and housing credit policies, with expectations for more cities to follow suit [1] Group 1: Policy Adjustments - Beijing has issued a notice to further optimize and adjust real estate policies, focusing on stabilizing the market [1] - The adjustments are in line with the requirement to eliminate unreasonable restrictive measures on housing consumption and are tailored to local conditions [1] - The central economic work conference has set a clear goal for next year's real estate work, emphasizing the need to stabilize the market and implement city-specific measures [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently experiencing a "strong supply and weak demand" situation due to a large stock of new homes and the inclusion of second-hand homes in the market [1] - The stock of unsold homes should be encouraged to be purchased by local governments for use as affordable housing, which can help restore market confidence [2] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions has increased from less than 28% at the end of the 13th Five-Year Plan to 45% currently, with major cities seeing over 60% [2] Group 3: Rental Market and Investment - Rental yields in first-tier cities are recovering, and declining interest rates are making rental returns more attractive, creating favorable conditions for market stability [3] - The relationship between market supply and demand has fundamentally changed, necessitating a comprehensive approach to stabilize the real estate market [3] - Cities should balance various aspects such as market and security, rental and purchase, and new and second-hand homes to effectively reduce inventory [3]

展望明年乃至"十五五"期间，滕泰认为，尽管仍面临诸多挑战，但我国在财政政策、货币政策、居民收 入政策等方面均有巨大的结构转型和总量扩张空间。要切实提振消费、扩大内需，打造全球重要消费高 地，将有效推动中国经济高质量发展。 （文章来源：证券日报） 12月26日，中国民营经济研究会副会长、万博新经济研究院院长滕泰在《证券日报》社有限责任公司举 办的"2025证券市场年会"上表示，今年前11个月，社会消费品零售总额456067亿元，增长4.0%。但10月 份、11月份消费增速有所下滑，应尽快从结构性促消费政策转向总量性促消费政策。 滕泰认为，总量性促消费政策的关键在于增加居民收入和降息。政府可通过发放收入补贴或消费补贴的 方式来刺激消费，把用于低效投资、补贴生产和出口的资金大规模转移到补贴消费上，且补贴方式最好 不指定商品，以提高中低收入者或普通居民的收入补贴。据测算，1万亿元消费补贴产生的总需求增长 效果远超1万亿元投资，能极大地促进经济循环。 在滕泰看来，货币政策在扩大内需中作用重大。中国有降息空间，且适度宽松货币政策和灵活降息降准 是中央经济工作会议明确的方向。在货币流动性方面，"十四五"期间居民储蓄总额大幅 ...

文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 侯倩楠 报告正文 （一）中财办解读 2025 年中央经济工作会议精神 中央财办有关负责同志12月16日接受中央主要媒体采访，围绕宏观政策、提振消费、扩大投资、全国统 一大市场建设、高质量充分就业等主题深入解读中央经济工作会议精神。财政政策方面：政策力度上，保持 必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量；政策质效上，提高精准性和有效性；实施时机上，主动靠前发 力。货币政策方面：把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量；加力支持扩大内需、科 技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 | 图表 18: 中财办同志解读 2025年中央经济工作会议精研 | | | --- | --- | | 时间 主题 | 解读内容 | | | 展望明年，世界经济有望延续温和增长态势，但变数较多。从国内看，我们面临的困难挑战不少，但经济基础稳、优势多、和性强、潜 | | 经济形势 | 能大等长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变...投资和消费增速明年有望恢复，产业转型升级加快，科技和产业创新进入成果集中爆发 | | | 阶段,我国经济发展前景是十分光明的。 | | | 政策力度上，保持必要的财 ...

中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府迅速推进会议精神的学习贯彻工作。其释放的增量信息与政策信号有何深 意？本文分析，可供参考。 文 | 赵伟、贾东旭、侯倩楠 联系人 | 贾东旭 摘要 中财办对中央经济工作会议的解读更具体，突出内需结构性变化与"反内卷"的三个层次等。 中央经济工作会议后，中财办、相关部委及地方政府围绕扩大内需、反内卷、新质生产力等方向，密集开展会议精神的学习、 解读与部署工作。 各部门和地区部署亮点纷呈：中财办研判消费结构演变等，财税部门聚焦财力保障，经济大省侧重开放布 局，边疆地区强化安全建设。 中财办解读中央经济工作会议精神，重点强调财政"为未来风险留有余地"与货币政策"前瞻性、科学性调节"两大核心方向。 融 资条件方面，其提出"促进社会综合融资成本低位运行"，与此前货币政策执行报告"推动社会综合融资成本下降"的表述有所变 化。 内需方面，中财办提出把握消费结构性变化，坚持投资于物与投资于人相结合。 其指出"我国正在从以商品消费为主转向商品 消费和服务消费并重"，契合今年消费现状；投资方面则聚焦消费类基建，并提出"靠前实施具备条件的'十五五'重大项目"。 改革方面，中财办注重统一 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, steel prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies on the supply side. Demand is unlikely to improve significantly, but with the continuous implementation of policies such as anti - involution and a warm macro - environment, steel prices may form a bottom, with a possible fluctuation range of (2800, 3500), showing a pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [83][85]. - In 2026, the oversupply of iron ore will become more prominent, but the decline in ore prices is expected to be tortuous. The supply is expected to increase significantly, demand may decline slightly, and inventory is likely to accumulate at a high level. The price fluctuation range may be (600, 850), with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [86][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review 3.1.1. Steel - In 2025, steel prices showed a pattern of decline - rise - decline again. From January to June, prices dropped due to factors such as overseas trade frictions, weak domestic demand, and falling raw material costs. In July, prices rose driven by anti - involution policies. From August to December, prices oscillated downward due to weak demand and inventory accumulation. For example, rebar mostly traded in the range of 3000 - 3200 [5][8]. 3.1.2. Iron Ore - In 2025, iron ore prices first declined, then rebounded, and finally oscillated. From January to June, prices fell due to factors like overseas recession expectations and rumors of crude steel production restrictions. In July, prices rebounded due to anti - involution policies and strong demand. From August to December, prices oscillated at a high level but with gradually lower peaks [9][12]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1. US Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75% in December 2025, the third cut this year. It also plans to start a monthly short - term Treasury purchase program of about $40 billion. The dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 each [13]. 3.2.2. US Economic Indicators - The US employment market is weak. In November, non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. Inflation in November was significantly lower than expected, with CPI rising 2.7% year - on - year and core CPI rising 2.6% year - on - year [17][18]. 3.2.3. China - US Relations - China - US relations are currently in a relatively stable period. After rounds of negotiations, some tariffs have been cancelled or suspended. However, there are still uncertainties, and strategic competition between the two countries persists [23]. 3.2.4. Domestic Credit and Economy - In November, new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, with corporate net financing being the main support. New RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, with weak demand from residents and enterprises. Central Economic Work Conference in December 2025 set a tone for more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in 2026, aiming to expand domestic demand [25][29]. 3.3. Supply - Demand Analysis 3.3.1. Terminal Demand - Real estate is still at the bottom, dragging down building material demand. In 2025, real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market, but the effect was limited [30][31]. - Infrastructure investment is expected to be stable in 2026. In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment turned negative, affected by factors such as fiscal front - loading and project reserves [33][34]. - Manufacturing investment may maintain some resilience but with industry differentiation. In 2025, it was supported by exports and policies, with a growth rate of 1.9% from January to November [36][38]. - The automobile industry had a good performance in 2025, with production and sales reaching new highs. In 2026, it may face some challenges due to policy changes. The home appliance industry maintained low - growth [39][42]. - The construction machinery industry is expected to maintain growth in 2026, and the shipbuilding industry continued to be prosperous in 2025 [43][45]. - Steel exports were an important support for demand in 2025. In 2026, exports may be restricted by policies in the short term [46][47]. 3.3.2. Steel Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel and pig iron production decreased year - on - year. In 2026, steel production is expected to be further adjusted according to demand and profit, with capacity likely to shrink [54]. 3.3.3. Steel Profit - In 2025, steel mill profits were high in the first half and low in the second half. In 2026, mills are expected to maintain a thin - profit state, affected by factors such as demand and cost [57]. 3.3.4. Steel Production - In 2025, rebar production was at a low level, while hot - rolled coil production was high. In 2026, this differentiation pattern is expected to continue [60]. 3.3.5. Steel Inventory - In 2025, steel inventory pressure emerged in the second half. Rebar inventory was relatively neutral, while hot - rolled coil inventory pressure was large. In 2026, attention should be paid to the supply pressure of plates [63]. 3.3.6. Steel Price Spread - In 2025, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar prices first widened and then narrowed, reflecting changes in the supply - demand structure [64]. 3.3.7. Iron Ore Supply - In 2025, global iron ore shipments increased slightly. In 2026, global iron ore supply is expected to grow significantly, with about 2000 tons of incremental supply from major mines and strong incremental expectations from non - mainstream mines [68][88]. 3.3.8. Iron Ore Demand - In 2025, iron ore demand was resilient, but in 2026, it is expected to decline slightly due to the implementation of crude steel production control policies [79]. 3.3.9. Iron Ore Inventory - In 2025, port inventory of iron ore was high, and steel mill inventory was low. In 2026, port inventory is expected to remain high, and steel mills will continue to purchase on - demand [82]. 3.4. Market Outlook 3.4.1. Steel - In 2026, steel demand is expected to be weak, but steel prices may oscillate and bottom out due to policies and a warm macro - environment. The price may fluctuate between 2800 and 3500, with a possible pattern of low in the first half and high in the second half [85]. 3.4.2. Iron Ore - In 2026, the iron ore market will face an oversupply situation, but the decline in ore prices will be tortuous. The price may fluctuate between 600 and 850, with high prices in the first quarter, a decline in the second quarter, and more downward pressure in the second half of the year [88].

中国四部门：引导政府性融资担保加大对就业贡献力度 负责人还指出，2026年，中央财政将推动政府性融资担保与贷款贴息等财政金融政策深度衔接，以融资 担保缓解融资难、以财政贴息缓解融资贵问题，增强政府性融资担保能力，加大对民间投资支持力度， 引导银行增加中长期信贷投放，形成"财政撬动、担保增信、贷款跟进、实体受益"的闭环，共同促进扩 大内需、拉动投资与改善预期。(完) 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新社北京12月26日电 (记者 刘育英)中国财政部会同人力资源和社会保障部、中国人民银行、国家金 融监管总局近日联合印发《关于进一步发挥政府性融资担保体系作用 加力支持就业创业的指导意见》 (下称《指导意见》)。 政府性融资担保为小微企业增进信用，为金融机构分担风险，是财政金融政策协调配合支持小微企业融 资发展、促进就业、扩大内需的重要政策工具。中国财政部有关负责人(下称负责人)26日介绍，《指导 意见》建立了一套量化评价与激励约束机制，推动担保资源从扩面增量向提质增效转变，核心是引导政 府性融资担保加大对就业的贡献力度。其中包括，要求政府性融资担保机构逐步降低或取消对吸纳就业 人数多的 ...

Production - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 4.8% year-on-year, with high-tech industries contributing 29.8% to the overall growth[9] - The service production index recorded a year-on-year increase of 4.2% in November, showing a slight decline from October[21] - The growth rate of traditional manufacturing industries is under pressure, while some technology-intensive manufacturing sectors maintain high growth rates[18] Investment - From January to November, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6%, the lowest since July 2020, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[10] - Manufacturing investment growth has slowed for eight consecutive months, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%[23] - Real estate investment saw a year-on-year decline of 16%, with both supply and demand sides under pressure[38] Consumption - In November, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by only 1.3% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.93%[11] - The retail growth of building and decoration materials dropped to -17%, the lowest since March 2020, due to high base effects and cautious expectations[57] - Policies to stimulate consumption are expected to be implemented, focusing on enhancing consumer confidence and optimizing related systems[76] Risks - Risks include potential underperformance of policy implementation, external demand fluctuations, and weak recovery in resident consumption[78] - The real estate market faces adjustment risks, which could indirectly impact infrastructure investment and related consumption sectors[78]

央广网北京12月26日消息（记者 冯方）12月26日，方正富邦基金举行2026年投资策略会，探讨"十五 五"开局之年的投资机遇和挑战。在会上，方正证券研究所副所长、首席经济学家燕翔表示，2026年我 国经济将进入以结构优化和创新驱动为核心的新阶段，资本市场或将启新程。 在扩大内需方面，燕翔认为，中央经济工作会议已明确将扩大内需、提振消费摆在优先位置，服务消 费、银发经济、文化IP消费等新兴领域潜力巨大，有望成为下一阶段消费扩容的重要突破口。 2025年，我国科技创新成果集中涌现。"从商业航天到量子计算，从固态电池到合成生物，多项'从0到 1'的突破正在转化为现实生产力。"燕翔认为，2026年科技政策将进一步加码，推动创新链与产业链深 度融合，科技创新不再是实验室里的概念，而是实实在在的增长引擎。 关于资产配置问题，燕翔认为，2026年可重点关注三大方向：一是科技成长资产的长期产业趋势机会， 二是供需失衡驱动下具备较强涨价弹性的顺周期板块，三是契合长期配置型资金偏好的红利资产。此 外，燕翔认为，港股经过此前调整有望再度迎来布局良机，可以关注以恒生科技为代表的补涨机会。 燕翔指出，2026年作为"十五五"规划的开 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the duty-free industry, highlighting the increasing importance of domestic demand and supportive policies from the government [1]. Core Insights - The duty-free industry is entering a new era characterized by improved external conditions, enhanced policies, and rising industry sentiment, suggesting significant investment opportunities [1]. - The report emphasizes the expected growth in Hainan's offshore duty-free sales due to the launch of new policies, the peak tourist season, and a low base effect, with sales growth projected to continue [3]. - The recovery of international passenger flow and the expansion of the免税店 (duty-free store) market are anticipated to further boost sales in both port and city channels [3][39]. Summary by Sections Duty-Free Market Overview - The duty-free market is experiencing a recovery, with sales in Hainan showing a positive year-on-year growth of 27% in November, driven by new policies and an increase in tourist numbers [3][22]. - The report notes that the sales of high-value items like digital products and gold jewelry are contributing significantly to this growth [22]. Offshore Duty-Free Sales - Hainan's offshore duty-free sales have seen a turnaround, with a year-on-year increase of 3.4% in September, marking the first positive growth since March [22]. - The report indicates that the new policies implemented in October are expected to further enhance the shopping experience and increase the variety of products available [26]. Port and City Duty-Free Sales - The international passenger flow is gradually returning, with the number of inbound foreign tourists increasing significantly, which is expected to drive sales in port and city duty-free stores [39]. - The report highlights that the recent policy changes have expanded the range of products available in city duty-free stores, aiming to stimulate consumer demand [40]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the duty-free sector, specifically China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Zhuhai Duty Free Group, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the policy changes and market recovery [3].

Group 1: Economic Outlook - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be a golden era for both the Chinese economy and capital markets, with foreign capital being a major source of incremental funds [1][5] - CPI is projected to stabilize around 0.5% next year, while PPI is expected to turn positive in the second half of the year [3][4] - The rise in overall factor productivity is crucial, with breakthroughs in various sectors such as DeepSeek, lithography machines, and chips [3] Group 2: Commodity Prices and Inflation - A potential "pig oil resonance" economic phenomenon may impact CPI and PPI significantly, with oil prices influenced by U.S. factors, OPEC+ production capacity, and geopolitical risks [3] - Pork prices are expected to rebound in the second quarter of next year, with a projected year-on-year increase in the second half of the year [3] - The timing for expanding domestic demand is critical, particularly as external demand slows down [4] Group 3: Capital Market Dynamics - The capital market will be influenced by a shift back to demand-side pricing, with improved leverage willingness from the private sector [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative is likened to an investment phase, which may lead to short-term downward pressure on exports [4] - The upcoming period is seen as a window for observing large-scale domestic demand expansion policies, which could lead to sustained inflation [4] Group 4: U.S. Economic Impact - The long economic expansion cycle in the U.S. since the 2009 financial crisis may face a turning point between 2027 and 2028, with potential impacts following the mid-term elections next year [5] - The wealth effect from the U.S. stock market currently supports the service industry and employment, but a market adjustment could trigger negative feedback loops [5] - A depreciation cycle of the U.S. dollar is anticipated, which may reduce the attractiveness of U.S. assets and provide opportunities for Chinese markets [5]