康义首先提到，我国有14亿多人口，有庞大的中等收入群体，是具有全球影响力的超大规模市场。当 前，居民消费向优转变，个性化、多样化、品质化的消费偏好日益凸显，这里面就蕴藏着巨大潜力。 二是促消费政策继续显效。康义表示，今年将深入实施提振消费专项行动，制定实施城乡居民增收计 划。2026年以旧换新政策继续实施，并且在不断优化，第一批625亿元超长期特别国债资金已提前下 达，清理消费领域不合理限制措施逐步推进，政策落地将对消费增长形成支撑。 国家发改委此前撰文指出，实施城乡居民增收计划，提高居民收入在国民收入分配中的比重，提高劳动 报酬在初次分配中的比重，努力实现居民收入和经济增长同步、劳动报酬提高和劳动生产率提高同步。 加大直达消费者的普惠政策力度，增加政府资金用于民生保障支出。 记者 辛圆 除上述两个方面，康义提到，全国统一大市场建设有利于持续优化消费环境，新技术、新科技应用将会 增加更多的高品质消费供给，沉浸式、体验式消费场景也在不断培育，消费者权益保护持续加强，这些 都有助于释放更大的消费潜力。 国家统计局局长康义在周一的国新办新闻发布会上表示，展望2026年，尽管面临压力和挑战，但支撑消 费继续增长的积极 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

【专家：#2025中国经济呈现三大亮点#】国家统计局数据显示，2025年中国经济增长5%。对此，中银 证券全球首席经济学家管涛在接受中国日报#智见中国#栏目独家专访时表示，2025年中国经济运行呈现 三大亮点：尽管面临内外部压力，主要经济指标实现年初预定目标；宏观叙事明显改变，消费复苏和科 技创新亮点纷呈；股市汇市顶住外部冲击，运行良好。他还指出，2026年要坚持政策支持和改革创新并 举，实施更加积极的宏观政策；中国扩大内需有助于增加进口需求，对全球经济具有积极意义。（记者 周兰序 欧阳诗嘉 视频 孙迟） ...

Core Insights - The Chinese economy demonstrated strong resilience and vitality in 2025, achieving major expected targets and laying a solid foundation for economic development in 2026 [1] - Positive changes were observed in production, prices, and expectations, indicating a steady economic improvement [1] Economic Performance - In December 2025, the industrial added value and service production index for large-scale enterprises both accelerated compared to the previous month [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2023, while the core CPI maintained an increase of over 1% for four consecutive months [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing year-on-year decline, with a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months [1] - Both the manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing business activity index returned to the expansion zone [1] Policy Support - The State Council's executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial collaboration, with relevant departments accelerating implementation [1] - The "Two New" policies are continuously optimized, with initial funds being allocated ahead of schedule, creating favorable conditions for the economic start in 2026 [1] Long-term Outlook - A comprehensive, dialectical, and long-term perspective is necessary to understand the Chinese economy, focusing on both current conditions and long-term trends [2] - The fundamental conditions and basic trends supporting long-term economic growth remain unchanged, with a strong emphasis on high-quality economic development [2]

中国经济网北京1月19日讯(记者朱晓航)国家统计局局长康义19日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从2026 年全年看，我国经济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有改变，经济高质量发展大势没有改变，有基础 有条件保持经济稳定向好运行。 从政策支撑看，国务院常务会议部署实施财政金融协同促内需的一揽子政策，有关部门加快贯彻落实， 推进扩大内需。"'两新'政策不断优化，首批资金已经提前下达，这些都为今年经济起步创造了有利条 件。"康义说。 康义表示，我们看中国经济，要全面、辩证、长远地看，既要看当前之形，更要看长远之势；既看季度 变化，更看全年走势；既看总量规模，更看发展质量。 康义介绍，从近期情况看，我国生产、价格、预期等都出现了积极变化，经济稳中有进的态势持续。 2025年12月份，规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数同比增速均比上月有所加快；CPI上涨0.8%，是 2023年3月份以来最高涨幅，核心CPI连续4个月涨幅在1%以上。PPI同比降幅收窄，环比连续3个月上 涨；制造业PMI和非制造业商务活动指数双双重回到扩张区间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a slowdown in retail sales growth, with a focus on boosting domestic consumption in response to external uncertainties and the impact of high tariffs on global trade [1][4][5] Group 1: Retail Sales Data - In December 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39,398 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 0.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from November [1][4] - For the entire year of 2025, the retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, slightly down by 0.3 percentage points compared to the first eleven months [1][4] Group 2: Domestic Consumption Strategy - The central economic work conference for 2026 emphasizes the importance of domestic demand, with a focus on building a strong domestic market as the primary task [5] - The "National Subsidy" policy is set to play a crucial role in stimulating domestic consumption, with a new round of policies officially launched on December 30, 2025 [5] Group 3: Fiscal Measures and Consumer Support - Fiscal spending to promote consumption is expected to increase from 300 billion yuan in the previous year to 500 billion yuan in 2026, expanding the scope from durable goods to general consumer goods and services [2][5] - The People's Bank of China will utilize 500 billion yuan in loans to support service consumption and elderly care, addressing the current high demand for services like tourism, education, and healthcare [2][5] Group 4: Supply and Demand Challenges - There are significant supply gaps in high-quality products and services, particularly in areas like housing, transportation, and cultural entertainment, which restrict consumer choices and willingness to spend [6] - Recommendations include accelerating the transformation of traditional industries towards higher quality and more personalized services, as well as innovating consumption scenarios to stimulate market activity [3][6] Group 5: Policy Focus on Human Investment - The emphasis on "investing in people" is expected to enhance consumer capacity, with potential increases in birth and early education subsidies, as well as adjustments to basic pensions, particularly for rural residents [2][5] - The integration of service consumption with "investing in people" is anticipated to be a key focus, with policies likely to support skill training and elderly care services [3][6]

Group 1 - The overall scale of digital consumption in China exceeds 23.8 trillion yuan, maintaining its position as the world's largest online retail market for 13 consecutive years, reflecting the strong potential of domestic demand and consumption upgrade driven by the digital economy [1] - The central economic work meeting has prioritized "expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption" as a key task for 2026, which is crucial for economic recovery and the construction of a new development pattern [1] - Various government departments are committed to enhancing domestic demand and consumption, with specific actions outlined by the National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce, and the People's Bank of China [1] Group 2 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need for financial support to expand domestic demand, particularly in key areas such as service consumption and small and micro enterprises, while promoting credit investment in the service consumption sector [2] - Achieving a balance between "demand" and "promotion" is essential for sustainable expansion of domestic demand and quality improvement of consumption, requiring enhanced consumer confidence and the removal of barriers to consumption upgrade [2] - The focus of expanding domestic demand will increasingly shift towards service consumption, elderly consumption, and green consumption, necessitating both policy guidance and market-driven efforts [2] Group 3 - A coordinated policy approach across various sectors, including fiscal, financial, and industrial policies, is necessary to boost consumption and market confidence, with a focus on a supportive monetary policy environment [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance support for key areas of service consumption and to optimize consumer finance services, thereby improving the payment experience in critical consumption scenarios [3] - Market participants are actively innovating to meet new consumer demands, particularly in high-frequency daily consumption areas such as healthcare, beauty, education, and home improvement [3] Group 4 - The market should leverage technology and innovative models to meet consumer demands for product upgrades and service consumption expansion, fostering a mutually reinforcing relationship between consumption upgrade and industrial transformation [4] - A fair and orderly market environment is essential for optimizing resource allocation and promoting the development of new consumption growth points within the framework of a unified national market [4] Group 5 - Recent initiatives by the Ministry of Commerce and other departments aim to enhance financial support for green consumption loans, encouraging collaboration between financial institutions and trade enterprises [5] - The People's Bank of China plans to expand the support scope of service consumption and elderly re-loans, with potential inclusion of the health industry once standards are established [5] - The collaborative efforts across various sectors are expected to strengthen the foundation for high-quality economic development in China [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Municipal Committee has released recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing the implementation of strategies to expand domestic demand and enhance consumption [1] Group 1: Consumption Strategies - The plan includes a continuation of special actions to boost consumption and the development of Shanghai as an international consumption center [1] - There is a focus on expanding service consumption, particularly in cultural, tourism, sports, and health sectors, to improve the quality of service supply [1] - The initiative promotes green and smart consumption, aiming to upgrade and expand product consumption [1] Group 2: Innovation and Integration - Encouragement for innovation in consumption models and formats, promoting the integration of online and offline consumption [1] - The plan supports the development of "AI + consumption," intellectual property derivative products, and interactive, immersive, and experiential consumption [1] - There is a push for the growth of the live-streaming economy and the deep integration of culture, tourism, commerce, and sports [1] Group 3: Economic Environment and Infrastructure - The recommendations include optimizing the consumption environment and advancing the construction of world-class business districts [1] - Development of distinctive commercial streets and enhancement of tax refund and cross-border payment convenience to increase inbound consumption [1] - The plan aims to create an all-age-friendly quality living circle to better match supply and demand in consumer goods, stimulating consumption potential among the elderly and youth [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of building a strong domestic market, driven by consumption and investment, to enhance the internal circulation of the economy [1] - The article highlights the significance of a large domestic market, supported by a vast population and numerous business entities, as a comparative advantage that fosters positive interactions between supply and demand [1] - It points out that consumption is a lasting driver of economic growth, and increasing residents' disposable income is crucial for boosting consumption [1] Group 2 - The transition from a middle-income to a high-income country involves a shift in consumption structure from goods to services, with service consumption expected to account for 46.8% of per capita consumption expenditure by the third quarter of 2025 [2] - Expanding service consumption is seen as a way to unlock consumption potential and enhance the quality of life for citizens [2] - Investment plays a vital role in driving economic growth, but it must be effective and not lead to wasteful low-level repetitive construction [2] Group 3 - The article discusses the need to address barriers and improve the flow of resources within the economy, as regional segmentation and regulatory differences currently hinder smooth domestic circulation [3] - It advocates for the establishment of a unified national market to prevent localized self-circulation and to enhance the allocation of production factors across regions [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that expanding domestic demand should be a strategic focus, combining consumer welfare and investment in both physical and human capital [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is accelerating the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, with a focus on various sectors such as the silver economy, green consumption, and cultural and sports consumption, supported by multiple policies and local initiatives [1][2]. Policy Support - The State Council's meeting on January 16 emphasized the need to foster new growth points in service consumption, encouraging the emergence of new business models and enhancing the quality of service supply [2][4]. - Eight departments, including the Ministry of Civil Affairs, released measures to support the silver economy through technology-enabled elderly care services [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments issued a notice to promote green consumption, focusing on areas like green dining and accommodation [2]. Technological Integration - Experts believe that the integration of digital and intelligent technologies into service consumption can enhance supply-demand matching efficiency and expand the scale of service consumption [3]. - Local governments are prioritizing the use of digital technologies to improve service quality and expand consumption, with initiatives in cities like Shanghai and Jiangsu promoting AI and innovative service products [2][4]. Financial Support - Financial support policies for the service consumption sector are expected to expand, with the People's Bank of China indicating plans to include the health industry in support measures for service consumption and elderly care [6]. - The Ministry of Civil Affairs is working on specialized financial support policies to encourage social capital participation in the elderly care sector [6][7]. Market Potential - The potential for service consumption in China is significant, with calls for innovative and diversified consumption scenarios to attract more social capital and meet the diverse needs of high-income groups [5][7]. - The Ministry of Transport is exploring measures to expand yacht consumption, highlighting the broad opportunities within the service consumption market [5].