责任编辑：陈平 1月14日，金丰来认为，在当前错综复杂的地缘政治环境与通胀预期交织下，贵金属市场正迎来史诗级 的行情爆发。今日Comex黄金二月期货一度刷新每盎司4644.00美元的历史极值，而白银表现更为激 进，三月期货直接飙升至每盎司89.215美元的纪录高位。金丰来表示，尽管金价在冲高后出现了短暂的 技术性回调，收窄至4613.00美元附近，但白银单日超3.5美元的涨幅充分说明，资金对于避险资产的渴 求已达到阶段性巅峰。 从宏观基本面看，美国12月CPI年度通胀率定格在2.7%，核心CPI则维持在2.6%的多年低点。金丰来表 示，虽然通胀数据大致符合预期，且能源价格受汽油拖累有所下滑，但食品成本的韧性以及核心通胀的 停滞，使得市场对未来货币政策的走向仍存疑虑。与此同时，CME集团宣布将金银期货保证金从固定 金额改为名义价值百分比制。这一制度变革反映了监管机构对当前高波动环境的防御性布局，百分比制 能更直观地捕捉市场波动所需的抵押规模。 地缘局势的动荡是推升避险溢价的主要诱因。金丰来表示，伊朗境内的持续抗议与局部冲突引发了国际 社会的广泛担忧，已有数万人在动荡中被捕，死亡人数可能远超官方报道。德国总理默茨 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The gold market is experiencing high demand, with international spot gold prices fluctuating between $1900 and $2000 per ounce, and domestic gold prices showing strong performance [1] - Banks are accelerating the launch of structured deposit products linked to gold, with companies also investing directly and engaging in industry chain layouts, making gold assets a core focus for market funds [1] Group 2: Banking Sector - Several major banks have launched over 30 gold-linked structured deposit products since January 2026, with investment periods ranging from 3 months to 1 year and minimum investment amounts typically set at 50,000 or 100,000 yuan [3] - The products generally offer a structure of "guaranteed return + floating return," with guaranteed rates between 1.5% and 2.5%, and potential maximum returns of 4% to 6% based on gold price fluctuations [3] - The issuance of gold-linked structured deposits increased by 47% year-on-year in 2025, with January 2026's issuance reaching 80% of December 2025's total, indicating rising market acceptance [4] Group 3: Corporate Participation - Over 60 listed companies have announced investments in gold-linked financial products or direct gold asset purchases since 2025, with total funds exceeding 20 billion yuan [5] - Companies are diversifying their participation in the gold market, with some investing in gold ETFs and others focusing on the entire gold industry chain, from mining to processing and sales [6] - Mining companies have increased gold production by 12% and 8% year-on-year in 2025, while jewelry companies have expanded production and recycling operations, benefiting from rising gold prices and recovering consumer demand [6] Group 4: Market Drivers - The rise in the gold market is supported by a combination of global economic conditions, policy directions, and market demand, with expectations of a potential interest rate cut in 2026 and ongoing geopolitical tensions driving safe-haven investments into gold [7] - In China, gold consumption reached 1486 tons in 2025, a 12.3% increase year-on-year, with investment gold consumption growing by 23%, highlighting the asset's appeal as a physical investment [7] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the gold market may experience short-term fluctuations, long-term factors such as global economic uncertainty and expectations of monetary policy easing will continue to support gold assets as a valuable investment [8] - Companies are advised to align their gold investments with their core business operations to mitigate risks associated with market volatility and operational challenges [8]

地缘政治不确定性犹存，黄金见顶言之尚早需警惕风险尽管短期走势显示见顶迹象，但全球地缘政治的持续紧张，仍为黄金提供了底层支撑。特朗普政府对 美联储独立性的刑事调查，以及对伊朗贸易伙伴加征25%关税的威胁，引发了对全球供应链和石油市场的担忧。 海湾国家游说美国避免对伊朗动武，警告 石油扰乱将损害经济稳定。同时，美国对格陵兰岛的图谋激化美欧关系，欧盟和北欧国家联合发声，警告北约可能终结。这些事件放大避险需求，推动资金 向黄金倾斜，即使美元强势，也难以完全抵消这一效应。地缘政治紧张局势和对美联储独立性的质疑是黄金的基本面支撑。特朗普对鲍威尔展开刑事调查， 招致全球央行官员的批评，进一步放大不确定性。德国商业银行上调2026年底黄金价格预估至4900美元，花旗银行策略师甚至将目标价调至5000美元，白银 至100美元。他们将地缘政治风险加剧、现货市场短缺和美联储不确定性列为主要原因。 此外，日本首相高市早苗的鸽派政策可能引发日元进一步贬值，间接支撑美元，但也增加了全球货币政策不确定性。日本当局已发出汇市干预威胁，这或将 引发更广泛的市场波动。 在这种背景下，黄金的见顶风险虽存在，但言之尚早。核心通胀仍高于央行目标，多数 ...

格隆汇1月14日｜现货白银价格在亚洲早盘时段创下历史新高，一度突破90美元/盎司。这是银价连续第 四个交易日录得上涨。此前，美国方面威胁要在伊朗采取军事行动，这令地缘政治紧张局势再次升温， 令对避险资产的需求依然强劲。与此同时，美联储主席鲍威尔因在管理华盛顿总部改造资金方面存在不 当行为而受到刑事指控，这使得人们对美联储独立性的担忧进一步加剧，这一事件亦导致美元大幅贬 值，有市场专家警告称，对美联储独立地位的攻击可能会对美国主权评级造成影响，这同样使得避险资 产继续保持强劲态势。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

| 2026年1月14日星期三 | NO.1 央行开展3586亿元7天期逆回购操作 1月13日，央行公开市场开展3586亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%。Wind数据显示，当日162亿 元逆回购到期，7天期逆回购净投放3424亿元。 点评：本次逆回购操作规模较大且利率保持稳定，表明央行在维护流动性合理充裕方面态度明确。在当 前经济企稳复苏的关键阶段，此举有助于稳定市场预期，平滑资金面波动，为金融机构提供适宜的流动 性环境。 点评：增资有助于公司增强资本实力，拓展年金、养老保险等业务空间，符合行业向专业化、规模化发 展的趋势。 NO.3 张精科拟升任杭州银行行长 近日，杭州银行公告称，公司董事会同意聘任张精科为公司行长，任期至第八届董事会届满之日止，其 任职资格待监管部门核准。去年4月初，杭州银行原行长虞利明因个人原因辞任，此后该行董事长宋剑 斌代为履行行长职责。 NO.4 美联储风波叠加地缘政治不确定性，黄金白银期价再创新高 据新华社，受美国联邦储备委员会主席遭调查和地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所2月黄 金期货价格12日一度突破每盎司4640美元，3月白银期货价格一度冲上每盎司86美元，均 ...

你听说了吗？ 就在今天，国内金价冲到了每克1030块。 这数字，是不是听着就让人心跳加速？ 但更让人坐不住的是，很多人都在悄悄议论：这恐怕只是个 开始，明天，或者下周，市场可能会迎来一场更猛烈的风暴。 这感觉，像不像2023年那会儿？ 地缘政治一 紧张，黄金就成了大家眼里的香饽饽。 国内现货黄金蹭蹭往上涨，期货市场也跟着火热，连带着黄金ETF都成了抢手货。 市场里那种情绪，明眼人都能感 觉到，有点上头。 但黄金这东西，从来就不只是简单的投资品。 它身上带着那种古老的、保命的属性，有人觉得它是最可靠的压舱石，有人却觉得这玩意儿有点玄乎。 眼 下，春节快到了，买金饰的需求旺起来，老百姓通过ETF几块钱就能参与黄金投资的门槛又这么低，市场想不热闹都难。 你看，国内金价热得发烫，可伦 敦那边的现货黄金，前几天还稍微跌了一点呢。 这一冷一热对比下来，咱们的市场，是真有自己的脾气。 其实，这股热潮背后，远不止春节买金那么简单。 如果我们把视线拉长，看看2025年一整年，那才叫真正的"史诗级行情"。 国际金价从年初的每盎司2600 美元左右，一路狂飙到年底的4500美元以上，全年涨幅超过了70%。 整整一年里，现货黄金的价 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - In 2025, gold prices exhibited a clear upward trend, reaching over $3000 per ounce in Q1 and surpassing $3500 in Q2, with an annual increase of approximately 64% [2] - Silver prices rose significantly, starting from around $29 per ounce at the beginning of the year to over $84 by year-end, resulting in an annual increase exceeding 140% [2] - Platinum prices experienced a dramatic rebound after a slow start, with an annual increase of about 117% driven by demand recovery and supply concerns [3] Group 2: Macro Factors Supporting Precious Metals - Precious metals prices were supported by a nearly 10% decline in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions, which contributed to rising prices throughout 2025 [4] - The expectation of a weaker dollar and geopolitical risks heightened demand for precious metals, providing new momentum for the market at the end of 2025 [4] Group 3: Central Bank Purchases and Strategic Diversification - Central banks were a dominant force in the gold market, with purchases expected to reach between 900 to 1000 tons in 2025, reflecting a strategic move to diversify reserves and reduce exposure to the US dollar [5] - The increasing focus on gold as a "no-counterparty risk" reserve asset highlights its growing importance among various countries, particularly in Eastern Europe and developing nations [5] Group 4: Silver's Dual Role and Demand Dynamics - Silver's price surge was supported by its dual role as both a monetary metal and an industrial raw material, with significant demand driven by green energy transitions and AI investments [6] - The global silver market faced a notable supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, with a shortfall estimated between 100 million to 118 million ounces [6] Group 5: Future Market Outlook - Major financial institutions predict that the gold market will continue its structural bull market, with prices expected to remain above current levels due to ongoing central bank purchases and increased safe-haven demand [8] - Predictions for platinum suggest a similar bullish trend, supported by supply shortages and demand from the automotive and hydrogen sectors [8] - The outlook for silver is more cautious, with concerns about increased volatility and potential downward risks despite positive industrial demand and monetary hedging [8]

Group 1 - Iran is facing its largest challenge since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, with widespread protests against rising prices and currency devaluation leading to casualties among security personnel and civilians [1][2] - The Iranian government, led by President Pezeshkian, is committed to addressing the economic difficulties faced by the people and is open to listening to their demands [1] - The U.S. government, under President Trump, is considering further measures against Iran, including potential military action and economic sanctions targeting Iran's commercial partners [1][3] Group 2 - The Iranian Foreign Minister, Zarif, stated that security forces have regained control of the situation, but protests continue in some areas, indicating the severity of the unrest [2] - The U.S. has issued a security warning for its citizens to leave Iran immediately, reflecting concerns over the rising death toll and escalating tensions [2][7] - Iran's internet access has been restricted since January 8, with the government stating that the situation must stabilize before lifting the ban, while also enhancing domestic internet infrastructure [2] Group 3 - The U.S. has intensified its economic threats, with Trump announcing a 25% tariff on any country engaging in trade with Iran, which is seen as a way to exert pressure indirectly [3][4] - Iran's main trading partners include China, the UAE, and Turkey, with significant trade volumes reported, such as $13.37 billion in 2024 between China and Iran [3] - The Iranian government is seeking diplomatic channels for communication with the U.S., expressing a willingness to engage in dialogue without accepting lectures [5][6] Group 4 - The U.S. is exploring a range of military options in response to the situation in Iran, including airstrikes and cyber warfare, while also considering the implications of potential military action [6][7] - Iran's Defense Minister warned that any attack on its national interests would lead to retaliation against enemy facilities, signaling a readiness to respond to external threats [7] - Israel has maintained a low profile regarding the protests in Iran, emphasizing that the situation is an internal matter while remaining vigilant [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges faced by Iran, including widespread protests against rising prices and currency devaluation, and the U.S. government's mixed signals regarding military intervention and economic sanctions against Iran [2][4][10]. Group 1: Iran's Domestic Situation - Iran is experiencing its largest challenge since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, with protests leading to casualties among both security personnel and civilians [2]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian emphasized the government's commitment to addressing the economic difficulties faced by the people [2]. - The Iranian government has reported that 111 security personnel have died during the recent unrest, indicating the severity of the protests [4]. Group 2: U.S. Response and Military Threats - President Trump has threatened military action against Iran, reflecting a hesitance in the U.S. administration regarding direct military intervention [2][10]. - The U.S. State Department issued a security warning for American citizens to leave Iran immediately, highlighting the escalating tensions [10]. - Trump announced a 25% tariff on any country doing business with Iran, which is seen as an extension of economic pressure rather than a direct attack on Iran itself [5]. Group 3: Diplomatic Channels and International Reactions - Iran has expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue with the U.S. but rejects any form of lecturing [7][9]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister has reached out to a U.S. envoy to discuss the possibility of a meeting, indicating a potential for diplomatic engagement [9]. - European perspectives, such as that of German Chancellor Merz, suggest a belief that the Iranian government may not last long, reflecting a broader skepticism among EU nations regarding Iran's stability [12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Iran's main trading partners include China, the UAE, and Turkey, with significant trade volumes reported, such as $13.37 billion in 2024 between China and Iran [5]. - The ongoing unrest and U.S. sanctions are likely to impact Iran's economic relationships and trade dynamics in the region [5]. Group 5: Market Reactions - The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding Iran has led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and silver prices reaching historical highs [12].

今年以来，国际金价已经上涨约6%。汇丰银行分析认为，当前金价上涨动能依旧存在，金价可能在2026年上半年触及每盎司 5000美元关口。 当地时间11日，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，检方已对他展开刑事调查，涉及美联储办公大楼的翻修工程等问题。鲍威尔称，这一 行动不过是"借口"，真实目的是对美联储施加压力，迫使其在利率决策上迎合总统的偏好。 晨星分析师表示，若调查导致鲍威尔提前离任，潜在继任者如果持更宽松货币政策立场，可能加速降息进程，利好黄金价格。 地缘政治方面，伊朗和委内瑞拉近期的局势紧张，进一步提升了黄金作为避险资产的吸引力。 今年以来，国际金价已经上涨约6%。汇丰银行分析师认为，当前金价上涨动能依旧存在，金价可能在2026年上半年触及每盎司 5000美元关口。该行指出，避险需求、美元走弱及政策不确定性共同支撑金价，而多国财政赤字扩大也持续刺激黄金配置需 求。 与此同时，由于白银市场供应持续紧张，国际银价呈现显著补涨特征。伦敦现货市场白银价格今年以来涨幅已超17%，显著跑 赢金价。市场分析称，当前白银供应短缺很难在短期内得到缓解。在这种环境下，市场预期白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。 ...