国债期货日报 2025/12/10 行业消息 \ 2、海关总署12月8日发布数据显示，2025年前11个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值41.21万亿 元人民币，同比（下同）增长3.6%。其中，出口24.46万亿元，增长6.2%；进口16.75万亿 元，增长0.2%。11月份，我国货物贸易增速回升，进出口总值3.9万亿元，增长4.1%。其中， 出口2.35万亿元，增长5.7%；进口1.55万亿元，增长1.7%。 3、商务部副部长盛秋平在全国零售业创新发展大会上表示，"十五五"时期，要把零售业作 为培育完整内需体系、做强国内大循环的关键着力点，推动行业转向品质驱动、服务驱动，实 现高质量发展。要学习推广胖东来等企业好经验好做法，加快转型提升。 | | 周三国债现券收益率多数下行，到期收益率1-7Y下行约0.5-0.7bp左右，10Y、30Y到期收益率 | | --- | --- | | | 分别变动0.15、-1.10bp左右至1.84%、2.24%。国债期货集体走强，TS、T、TF、TL主力合约 | | | 分别上涨0.04%、0.06%、0.06%、0.30%。DR007加权利率维持1.45%附近震荡。国内基本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China emphasizes the need for a stable yet progressive economic approach in 2026, focusing on enhancing quality and efficiency through proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [1] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy is expected to remain expansionary in 2026, with a projected deficit rate around 4%. Special bonds are anticipated to increase slightly compared to 2025, with estimates of 5 trillion yuan in special bonds and approximately 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds [2][3] - Analysts predict that the fiscal policy will focus on "investing in people," with an increase in overall fiscal expenditure and an emphasis on optimizing expenditure structure [2][3] Monetary Policy - There is potential for further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates in 2026, with expectations of 1 to 2 reserve requirement cuts of 50 to 100 basis points and 1 to 2 interest rate cuts of 10 to 20 basis points [3] - Structural policy tools are likely to continue expanding, supporting key areas such as technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance [3] Policy Integration - The meeting highlights the importance of integrating existing and new policies to enhance their effectiveness, suggesting that large-scale economic stimulus measures are unlikely in the short term [4] - The focus will be on optimizing the efficiency of existing policies and resources, including improving credit structures and consolidating various subsidies and support funds [4] Demand-Side Incentives - Demand-side incentives, such as birth subsidies and trade-in programs, are expected to continue, indicating a sustained effort to promote consumption and improve living standards [5] - The emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments suggests a balanced approach to addressing both short-term and long-term economic challenges [5]

记者丨唐婧 编辑丨张星 中央政治局会议定调， 2026年的货币政策基调仍是适度宽松。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚 持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政 策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 对于适度宽松的货币政策如何落实，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在不久前的2025金融街论坛年 会上已有所表态。潘功胜当时表示，央行将继续坚持支持性的货币政策立场，实施好适度宽 松的货币政策， 综合运用多种货币政策工具 ，提供短期、中期、长期流动性安排，保持社会 融资条件相对宽松。同时， 继续完善货币政策框架 ，强化货币政策的执行和传导。 "加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度"的提法也颇受市场关注。 多名受访经济学家告诉记 者，逆周期调节与跨周期调节是宏观经济调控中两种互补的政策工具，前者侧重短期 经济波动的对冲，后者则更注重长期结构性问题的化解。此次重提跨周期调节，可见 经济的长期稳定发展更多地被纳入考量，未来政策重心或从短期稳增长转向兼顾中长 期结构优化。 继续实施适度宽松的货币政策 青岛银行 ...

（来源：燕财局） 咱们国家一年当中有4次重要经济研判会议和1次核心年度经济会议，而五次之中2次通常集中在12月。 前者的4次都由政治局主持召开，时间通常在每年的4月、7月、10月和12月，对当前经济形势进行分析和研判，尤其是12月那场通常专门研究下一年经济 工作，并为接下来（也在12月）的中央经济工作会议做准备。 后者的1次核心年度经济会议，也就是中央经济工作会议，主要任务是总结当年经济工作，分析研判经济形势，并部署下一年的经济发展规划。 换言之，今年12月有两场会议，第一场是政治局会议，这场会议会专门分析研判2026年该怎么走，给2026年经济工作定调；第二场则是之后的中央经济会 议，这场会议会完善更多的执行细则。 明眼人都能看出来，显然12月的这场政治局经济会议尤为重要，因为它将直接关系到房贷利息会不会降、收入会不会涨、养老金和育儿补贴会不会增加， 国家政策将重点向哪些产业行业板块倾斜，等等。 相当于是对2026年经济宏观政策的抢先预告，分量可以说几乎是全年之最。 上到企商界佬、投资精英，下到炒股的牛散，甚至都要逐字研究每句话背后的含义。 作者 | 燕大 12月重磅会议，给2026年经济划下大方向！ 而昨 ...

今年前三季度累计增长达到5.2%，为全年实现目标奠定良好基础。在"十五五"期间，高质量发展仍需统筹好量的合理增长和质的有效提升。 明年的宏观政策导向，决定明年宏观调控的力度和节奏，因而市场高度关注。首先，会议强调，更好统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争。这表 明国内国际双循环动能将成为驱动明年经济工作的主动力。展望"十五五"，国际经贸形势可能日趋复杂多变，一些经济体的保护主义势力扩大 将对经济全球化和国际贸易施加不利影响。而在当前内需还需提振的情况下，出口仍是拉动经济增长的重要驱动。值得注意的是，在今年国际 经贸不确定性升级的背景下，中国出口仍交出亮眼"成绩单"：11月出口逆势反弹，在较高基数下实现更快增长；前11月出口累计增长6.2%，显 示出中国外贸在国际经贸斗争中更显成色，更加"韧劲十足"。 其次，会议指出，继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。会议提出，继续实施更加积极的财政 政策和适度宽松的货币政策，与去年中央经济工作会议的表述相同，延续"宽财政+宽货币"的政策组合导向。会议强调要"加大逆周期和跨周期 调节力度"，重提"跨周期"调节，表明宏观政策会根据经济增长和物价 ...

21世纪经济报道记者唐婧 北京报道 中央政治局会议定调，2026年的货币政策基调仍是适度宽松。 中共中央政治局12月8日召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议指出，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续实施更加积极的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。 "此外，本次会议还重点强调了'提质增效'，"芦哲认为，这意味着2026年货币政策将更加注重在多目标间寻求平衡，既要保持流动性充裕和融 资条件适度宽松，也要防范资产价格大幅波动，并引导金融资源更多流向国民经济薄弱环节，提升货币政策传导的精准性与有效性。 青岛银行首席经济学家刘晓曙向记者表示，12月中央政治局会议中的货币政策定调呈现出两个"不变"与三大"调整"。"不变"主要体现在两个方 面：一是延续"适度宽松"的总体基调，降准降息等总量型工具仍有运用空间；二是结构性工具支持重点领域的导向未发生改变。 对于适度宽松的货币政策如何落实，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在不久前的2025金融街论坛年会上已有所表态。潘功胜当时表示，央行将继续坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，实施好适度宽松的货币政策 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to economic work in 2026, focusing on domestic and international economic dynamics, and aims for quality and reasonable growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] Economic Performance - The meeting reports that the economic growth for the first three quarters reached 5.2%, laying a solid foundation for achieving annual targets [1] - The overall economic operation is stable, with steady progress in new productive forces and significant advancements in reform and opening up [1] Macroeconomic Policy - The meeting highlights the importance of a proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, continuing the "wide fiscal + wide monetary" approach [3] - Emphasis is placed on increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating flexibility in macroeconomic policies based on actual economic growth and price levels [3] International Trade - The meeting underscores the significance of domestic and international dual circulation as the main driving force for economic work in the coming year, especially in light of increasing protectionism globally [2] - Despite uncertainties in international trade, China's exports showed resilience, with a cumulative growth of 6.2% in the first eleven months [2] Key Tasks - Eight key tasks have been outlined to leverage the positive momentum from the start of the "14th Five-Year Plan," focusing on investment to stimulate consumption and stabilize prices [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the Central Political Bureau meeting in December as a precursor to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, outlining the economic policy direction for 2026 [2][3] - The meeting acknowledged the overall stability and progress of China's economy in 2025, highlighting the steady development of new productive forces and effective risk mitigation in key areas [3][4] - The policy focus for 2026 will be on maintaining stability while promoting quality and efficiency, with a commitment to more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][4][5] Group 2 - The meeting reiterated the need for a combination of stable growth and quality improvement, indicating a shift in policy focus from merely stabilizing growth to optimizing structure [4][5] - Analysts expect that the macroeconomic policies for 2026 will be more forward-looking, aiming to lay a foundation for high-quality development over the next five years [4][5] - The emphasis on "integrating stock and incremental policies" suggests a coordinated approach across various departments and regions to enhance policy effectiveness [5][6] Group 3 - The three main policy principles for 2026 include implementing more proactive macroeconomic policies, enhancing the foresight and coordination of policies, and continuing with active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8] - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate of around 4%, with an increase in special bonds and long-term special government bonds to support new productive forces and social welfare [8][9] - Monetary policy is anticipated to see further reductions in deposit and policy interest rates, with potential cuts in reserve requirements and interest rates to support economic stability [8][9][10]

国债期货日报 2025/12/9 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.980 | 0.12% T主力成交量 | 75883 | -22485↓ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.785 | 0.07% TF主力成交量 | 57038 | -15253↓ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.430 | 0.02% TS主力成交量 | 30157 | -7733↓ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 112.590 | 0.45% TL主力成交量 | 110374 | -64954↓ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2512价差 | -0.16 | -0.10↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.61 | -0.28↓ | | | T2603-2512价差 | -0.18 | +0.02↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.20 | -0.03↓ | | | TF2603-2512价差 | 0.00 | -0.02↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5 ...

Group 1: Economic Policy Overview - The meeting emphasized the "steady progress" principle, expanding its meaning to include national security and development autonomy alongside economic growth stability[2] - The core logic of "stability" now encompasses the ability to respond to external shocks, particularly in the context of international economic competition[7] - The fiscal deficit rate for 2026 is expected to exceed 4%, reflecting a more proactive fiscal policy approach[3] Group 2: Monetary Policy Insights - Despite a shift towards "moderate easing," the use of price-based tools like interest rate cuts will be cautious due to constraints from the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins[10] - Future interest rate cuts are likely to follow an asymmetric model, prioritizing deposit rate reductions to protect banks' interest margins while lowering financing costs for the real economy[10] Group 3: Policy Goals and Implementation - The meeting outlined eight policy goals, including domestic demand leadership, innovation-driven growth, and risk prevention, indicating a targeted approach rather than broad stimulus measures[9] - The focus will be on enhancing efficiency and long-term economic growth rather than short-term boosts, ensuring a sustainable economic environment[9]