Core Viewpoint - UBS predicts that the Federal Reserve will further cut interest rates in the coming months, which will boost Asian currencies and U.S. stocks, particularly favoring Chinese technology companies [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - UBS forecasts a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts by the end of Q1 2026, following the first rate cut of the year last week [1] - The firm expects that the U.S. economy will not enter a recession, with U.S. stocks projected to achieve mid-single-digit percentage gains by mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Chinese Market Outlook - UBS maintains an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks, anticipating further upward movement in the Chinese stock market as household savings flow into the market [1] - The report indicates that the average appreciation of Asian currencies against the U.S. dollar is expected to be 4% over the next 12 months [1] Group 3: Company Performance and Sector Analysis - Companies included in the MSCI China Index are projected to see a 3% year-on-year increase in earnings by Q2 2025, with stable revenue growth [1] - Non-bank financial, technology, and healthcare sectors are expected to perform well, with internet companies showing double-digit growth in quarterly earnings [1] - Chinese companies are optimistic about their operational conditions, emphasizing cost control and pricing strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - Chinese residents' savings are increasingly directed towards financial investments, particularly in high-quality projects that can generate stable cash flow, aligning with national strategic directions [1] Group 1: Investment Trends - Financial investments are becoming more attractive, especially in sectors related to technological innovation and high-quality development, such as new infrastructure and urbanization [1] - The underlying assets of these new projects are closely aligned with major national strategies [1] Group 2: Economic Environment - The external environment is providing support for Chinese asset prices, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, although a significant reduction is not anticipated in the short term [1] - The focus will remain on proactive fiscal policies complemented by moderately loose monetary policies in the near future [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait - and - see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - **Black building materials**: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and buy on dips for glass [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous metals**: Wait or buy on dips for copper, buy on dips after pullbacks for aluminum, wait or short on rallies for nickel, conduct range trading for tin, silver, and gold [1][10][11][16] - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [1][20][22][24] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, PTA are expected to fluctuate; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][41][44] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macro - economic policies, and international events. For example, in the non - ferrous metals sector, supply disruptions and macro - economic uncertainties affect prices; in the energy and chemicals sector, factors like production capacity, demand, and cost determine the market trends [10][20][33] Summary by Categories Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: A - share market showed differentiation on Thursday. Growth sectors were relatively strong. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and is long - term bullish. It is recommended to buy on dips [5] - **Treasury bonds**: The interest - rate bond market had wide - range fluctuations on Thursday. After a panic - driven sell - off, it may enter a short - term bottom - building phase. It is recommended to hold a wait - and - see attitude [5] Black building materials - **Coking coal and coking**: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a price increase in the coal industry. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - **Rebar**: The rebar futures price had narrow - range fluctuations on Thursday. The short - term situation is a combination of weak industry fundamentals and strong macro - factors. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the RB2601 contract focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range [7] - **Glass**: The spot price increase of glass manufacturers has stimulated the market. Supply and demand are relatively balanced. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the 01 contract focusing on the 1160 - 1200 support level [8] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Supply disruptions and the approaching holiday stocking period may support copper prices. It is recommended to wait or buy on dips for short - term trading [10][11] - **Aluminum**: The production capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing. Demand is entering the peak season, and inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to buy on dips after pullbacks and consider a short AD and long AL arbitrage strategy [11] - **Nickel**: The supply of nickel is in surplus in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to short on rallies moderately [16] - **Tin**: Supply improvement is limited, and downstream consumption is warming up. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the SHFE tin 10 - contract focusing on the 26.5 - 28 million yuan/ton range [16] - **Silver and gold**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, precious metal prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to conduct range trading [17] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: High supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - **Caustic soda**: Considering downstream restocking and future alumina production expectations, it is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - **Styrene**: Weak supply - demand fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - **Rubber**: Affected by factors such as typhoons and pre - holiday sentiment, it is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation, focusing on the 15500 support level [26] - **Urea**: Supply is increasing, and agricultural demand is scattered. It is recommended to focus on the 01 - contract's 1600 - 1630 support level and the 1 - 5 spread positive - arbitrage opportunity [27] - **Methanol**: Supply is decreasing, and demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - **Polyolefins**: Supply and demand are both changing. It is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28] - **Soda ash**: Affected by glass price increases and production capacity changes, it is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation is changing. The spot market is strong, but there is downward pressure on prices in the future. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - **PTA**: Affected by factors such as the Russia - Ukraine conflict and supply - demand changes, it is expected to have range fluctuations, focusing on the 4550 - 4800 range [33] - **Apples**: The price of early - maturing apples is firm. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [35] - **Jujubes**: The market is currently quiet. It is expected to have a weak - side fluctuation and then a rebound [35] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: Supply is large, and prices are under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, and be cautious when bottom - fishing for the 05 and 07 contracts. Also, pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - **Eggs**: Short - term pre - holiday demand is weakening, and long - term supply pressure is large. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract and be cautious when shorting the 12 and 01 contracts [39][40] - **Corn**: New crop supply will ease the tight supply of old crops. It is recommended to take a short - side approach, wait for a rebound to short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse - arbitrage [41][43] - **Soybean meal**: Supply is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies and hold on dips, focusing on the 2900 support level of the M2601 contract [43] - **Oils**: After the tariff event's negative impact is over, oils are expected to stop falling and rebound. It is recommended to take a long - on - dips approach and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44][50]

目前，美国经济可以说就像一个"病危"的患者，就业疲软、债务高企、经济不确定性太大，种种症状，让这个全球最大经济体面临前所未有的治疗难题。 在此背景下，当地时间9月17日，美联储的决策团队终于开出了药方：降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.00%-4.25%。 这是自2024年12月以来的首次降息，如同一剂强心针注入病体沉疴的美国经济。 那么这剂药方，能够拯救美国经济吗？ 从现实情况来看，非常难。 因为美国经济目前是三大重要症状交织，高通胀、就业疲软与债务危机都出现在美国身上。 每一种都是非常难以治疗的症状。 比如美联储维持高利率，那么美国的通胀情况就能缓解。 但问题是，高利率的代价必然是要牺牲经济和财政的。 但它的副作用，也是非常明确的，那就是包括可能加剧通胀、削弱美元汇率、引发资产泡沫。 所以，如何开出精准的剂量药品，在其中找到细微的平衡点，就格外重要了。 因为一个闹不好，就有可能失衡，给美国经济引发更大的灾难。 当前，美联储选择25个基点的降息，其实就是如同精准控制的微量注射——既想缓解症状，又想避免过度刺激。 想要通过循序渐进的治疗方案，一点点治美国的经济病。 但问题在于：经济病情会等待这种 ...

美国第二季度GDP终值年化环比增长3.8%，较修正值3.3%大幅上调，创近两年最快增速。上修主要得 益于消费者支出的意外强劲以及进口的下降。核心PCE物价指数终值由2.5%上调至2.6%。 【黄金期货行情表现】 【机构观点】 9月26日，沪金主力暂报856.12元/克，涨幅达0.02%，今日沪金主力开盘价854.00元/克，截至目前最高 858.80元/克，最低850.74元/克。 黄金涨势暂缓。鲍威尔最近一次讲话中表示，就业下行风险证明降息是合理的，但通胀仍然有些高企， 政策取决于数据，延续了9月美联储会议时的谨慎姿态。美联储金融监理副主席鲍曼周二表示，美联储 在支持就业市场方面可能行动过于缓慢，如果需求状况恶化、企业开始财源，届时可能需要加快降息的 速度。上周，9月美联储风险管理式降息25个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚被任命的美联储理事米兰支 持降息50个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨慎，不过降息前景较为明 确。市场预期今年剩余两次会议均将降息。本周接连有几位联储官员讲话释放谨慎态度，但市场情绪整 体并未受其打压。市场预期关税对通胀影响或持续性有限，并对四季度投资增长有一定期待。 ...

现在市场啥样呢，大家都在猜，美联储啥时候降息啊，根据CME"美联储观察"，多数人觉得10月降息 的可能性比较大，12月可能会降更多，特别是9月25号那天，好多美联储官员都出来说话了，个个都发 表了自己对于降息的看法，以后还得接着关注开会的内容，最关键的还是通胀和劳动力市场数据，这直 接决定美联储的行动，还有全球经济，万一出点啥事，美国也得跟着遭殃，关税政策也有影响，长时间 下来，对通胀和经济肯定有影响，10月，12月，美联储议息会议，估计又得吵翻天。 其实大家也在想，这到底是怎么一回事，争议的背后，是害怕滞胀，就是经济停滞不前，物价还涨得厉 害，这种情况下，货币政策就不好使了，还有对就业市场的看法不一样，有人觉得好，有人觉得差，这 直接影响降息的决定，以及对于降息这个工具的理解，觉得降息到底是好是坏，有没有副作用，每个人 看法都不一样啊。 美国经济现在有点意思，通货膨胀在那杵着，劳动力市场也没个消停，美联储之前猛加息，现在内部意 见可大了，你说这接下来该咋办，谁也说不准啊。 降息，现在就是个烫手山芋，有人说通胀差不多了，劳动力市场看着也不结实，得降息，赶紧的，要不 然经济就完了，还说应该快点降、猛点降，可是吧 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chinese residents' savings are expected to increasingly flow into financial investments, particularly into high-quality projects that can generate stable cash flows, aligning with national strategic directions [2] Group 1: Investment Trends - High-quality projects in new infrastructure, consumption infrastructure, and new urbanization are seen as attractive assets due to their alignment with technological innovation and high-quality development [2] - The external environment is providing support for Chinese asset prices, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - There is still room for interest rate cuts in China, although a significant reduction is not anticipated in the short term [2] - The focus will remain on proactive fiscal policies complemented by moderately loose monetary policies in the near future [2]

【要闻速递】 今日周五（9月26日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于850附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报855.56元/ 克，跌幅0.05%，最高触及858.80元/克，最低下探850.74元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 米兰的核心论点在于，他认为当前的政策利率限制性过强，犹如一把悬在经济头上的利剑。他多次在公 开场合强调，过高的利率将使经济在面对下行冲击时异常脆弱，甚至可能引发劳动力市场的崩溃。为 此，他大胆提议，应在未来几次会议上累计降息两个百分点，即每次会议都降息50个基点。对于同僚们 普遍担忧的关税可能推高通胀问题，米兰则不以为然，他认为目前并无实质性证据表明关税会重新点燃 通胀，相反，特朗普政府的移民收紧政策反而可能成为压低通胀的因素。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为860元/克至880元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于824元/克 至850元/克。 在这场没有硝烟的战争中，新任美联储理事米兰无疑是最引人注目的"主降派"先锋。自其提名在9月中 旬获参议院确认后，他便迅速投身于推动降息的行动中。在上周的美联储会议上，他更是孤身 ...

OECD还指出，尽管二十国集团整体通胀率今年将放缓至3.4%，明年降至2.9%，但部分国家的通胀放缓 似乎陷入停滞。 反对党保守党领袖凯米·巴德诺克表示，经合组织报告"是对斯塔默软弱的经济管理的严厉评判"。英国 央行行长贝利在本月央行会议后致里夫斯的信中指责政府助长了近期通胀上升。贝利表示，控制劳动力 成本上升的努力"似乎被延迟"，原因是去年10月预算中规定的雇主国民保险缴款增加250亿英镑以及最 低工资大幅提高。 OECD报告表示，英美家庭通胀预期仍处于"历史高位"，工资增速持续快于官方通胀目标。11月增税前 景叠加贸易成本上升和持续政策不确定性，将拖累需求。该组织预测英国央行明年还将两次降息，使借 贷成本降至3.5%，这将是2023年初以来最低水平。 OECD数据还显示，英国通胀率2026年将放缓至2.7%，在七国集团中仅次于美国位居第二。根据 Consensus Economics汇编的数据，OECD的通胀预测与经济学家对2025年3.4%和2026年2.6%的预期基本 一致。 英《金融时报》9月23日消息，经合组织（OECD）周二预测，英国2025年通胀率预计为3.5%，高于去 年的2.5%，且到20 ...

来源：环球市场播报 全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有： 特朗普敦促土耳其停止采购俄油 暗示会考虑该国F-35战机要求 美国总统特朗普在白宫与土耳其总统埃尔多安会晤时敦促其停止购买俄罗斯石油，此外，他对安卡拉重 新获得F-35战机持开放态度。 特朗普周四在椭圆形办公室表示，"俄乌冲突仍在继续，我希望他停止从俄罗斯购买任何石油。"当时埃 尔多安也在特朗普身边。 1、特朗普敦促土耳其停止采购俄油 暗示会考虑该国F-35战机要求 2、达拉斯联储行长称美国央行应放弃用联邦基金利率做基准 3 、谷歌可能将面临欧盟第二笔反垄断罚款 4 、亚马逊将支付25亿美元和解"Prime会员欺诈"指控 5、美国两党借政府关门搏政治筹码 联邦雇员失业恐加重经济阴霾 6、美联储鲍曼：就业市场"脆弱"证明有必要进一步降息 "联邦公开市场委员会是时候准备设定不同的短期利率了，" Logan周四在里士满联储银行主办的一个活 动上发表事先准备好的讲话时说。联邦公开市场委员会是美联储的决策机构。 她认为，联邦基金利率目标已经过时，而且人迹罕至的银行间市场与隔夜货币市场之间联系脆弱并存在 突然中断的可能。Logan表示，更新美联储实施货币 ...