日本央行今天通过决议，决定加息25个基点，将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%水平，日本政策利率达到 30年来最高水平。而12月18日，欧洲央行刚决定维持欧元区三大关键利率不变，英国央行宣布降息25个 基点。前几天，美联储也宣布降息。日本央行为何选择此时加息？ ...

最新数据显示，日本11月全国CPI同比上涨2.9%，略低于前值；剔除生鲜食品的核心CPI维持在3%，剔 除生鲜食品与能源的核心指标从3.1%回落至3%。尽管通胀整体仍高于2%目标，但边际放缓使市场对激 进加息保持谨慎态度。同时，日本国债市场波动加剧。10年期国债收益率在加息后升破2%，创近三十 年高位。在公共债务占GDP比重接近250%的背景下，收益率上行增加了市场对财政可持续性的担忧， 也限制了对日元资产的风险偏好。 UNFX 12月19日讯 日本央行完成加息操作后，日元并未出现预期的反弹。周五亚洲至欧洲交易时段， 美元/日元在波动中回升，重新接近156.00水平。尽管政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%，创近三十年来新 高，但行长植田和男在会后新闻发布会上的偏温和表态，令市场对后续紧缩节奏的预期降温，日元随之 再次承压。盘面显示，加息公布后，日元短线虽有所波动，但很快转弱，这表明市场已提前消化了此次 政策调整，汇率定价的焦点重新集中在"未来是否继续收紧"这一核心问题上。 海外方面，美国11月CPI与核心CPI均低于预期，强化了通胀降温信号，市场对美联储降息的预期持续 升温，利率期货显示2026年累计降息幅度 ...

如此低的通胀水平，以及即将迎来的降息，对黄金是利好。 期货公司观点 广发期货： 当前美国经济运行和就业市场持续结构性分化但总体衰退风险不大，美联储未来在衡量就业的通胀目标 问题上仍有分歧态度趋于谨慎，但市场对货政宽松预期在"影子主席"言论叠加美联储独立性受到威胁影 响下可能升温，资金情绪的影响还有贸易和地缘风险的扰动或使金价中长期上涨空间可观。短期市场或 消化美国就业市场重新回到低供应+低增长的新平衡市场风险偏好改善，因此金价上涨动能受到抑制， 突破前高的动能仍需酝酿，后续关注美国经济数据及美联储官员表态对市场情绪扰动，单边以回调后再 买入思路为主。 脸都不要了！特朗普为强行推动激进降息，竟联手行政部门操控CPI数据，上演了一场赤裸的权力操盘 戏码。 美国11月CPI同比2.7%、核心2.6%的"超预期回落"，看似是通胀受控的利好，实则是精心设计的骗局。 早在就职之初，特朗普就定下2025年底前降息至1%以下的目标，授意白宫经济委员会联合劳工部、商 务部动手脚。作为CPI第一大权重项（33%）的住房价格，被用滞后6-12个月的签约租金替代即期数 据，硬生生压低读数；核心服务分项也通过调整权重，制造粘性通胀降温 ...

英国央行认为，与上次会议相比，通胀持续的风险有所减弱，而需求疲软带来的中期风险依然存在。货币政策旨在确保中期CPI通胀在2%内可持续稳 定，因此需要在实现通胀目标时平衡风险。 对于未来，货币政策进一步宽松的程度将取决于通胀前景的演变。自2024年8月以来，银行利率下调了150个基点，政策的限制性有所下降。根据现有 证据，银行利率很可能继续以渐进的下降轨迹走下去。 12月18日，英国央行宣布下调基准利率（"银行利率"）25个基点。 这是英国央行年内第四次降息，也是自2024年8月降息周期开启以来第六次降息。基准利率从去年最高5.25%降至当前的3.75%。对于明年，多位经济 学家预测，英国央行仍有较大降息空间。 英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利（Andrew Bailey）同样强调，当前通胀水平已经从三年前超过10%下降到3.2%。他表示，银行利率未来可能会进一步下 降，但这取决于工资增长和服务业价格等变量是否持续缓解。他强调，货币政策目标是为了确保通胀率回落到2%的目标。 英国央行基准利率走势（2003年至今） 为什么降息？ 根据英国央行发布的声明，该国通胀指标——消费物价指数（CPI）自上次会议以来已下降至3.2% ...

2017年11月，特朗普提名共和党籍律师鲍威尔接任耶伦，原本期待后者延续低利率环境助力"美国优 先"经济议程。然而，鲍威尔在2018年坚持每季度加息一次，令特朗普公开斥其"疯了"，双方裂痕由此 公开化。 2023年开启连任周期后，特朗普多次放话"总统应有权撤换美联储主席"，并在竞选集会上承诺"下一任 主席必须把利率降到1%甚至更低"，以减轻房贷、车贷及企业债负担。如今，随着通胀回落至2%附 近、劳动力市场出现疲软迹象，特朗普认为自己拥有了更换美联储主席的"经济窗口"与"政治资本"。 据特朗普本人及白宫官员透露，目前入围最终面试名单的至少包括以下四人： 1. 2. 美联储现任理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。这位拥有圣路易斯联储二十多年研究背景的经济学家，自2020 年入职理事会后便以"鸽派"闻名，主张"在通胀预期锚定的前提下，可容忍阶段性过热"。特朗普 周四透露，他与沃勒周三再度会面，并称赞其"非常出色""在那儿已经干了很长时间"，被市场解 读为最有希望的"内部晋升"路径。 1. 据ETO Markets 外汇最新消息，当地时间周四，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在白宫椭圆办公室对媒体透露， 他正与"三到四名"美联储主席候选人进 ...

而凯文·沃什曾在摩根士丹利任职，与华尔街关系密切。他曾担任美国前总统小布什的经济顾问，2006年以35岁的年纪成为美联 储历史上最年轻的理事。不过，沃什去年还在警告通胀卷土重来，批评美联储通过释放降息信号刺激经济的做法。直到最近，他 才主张降息。 按照特朗普此前的说法，尽管哈西特也十分出色，但沃什是头号候选人。不过，特朗普似乎仍在考察候选人。美联储理事克里斯 托弗・沃勒便是他17日面试的对象。 在美国一家投行的政策研究主管拉佩里埃看来，无论谁得到美联储新主席这份工作，"都将是个残次品"。 尽管美联储今年9月以来连续三次降息，本月10日又将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点，至3.5%至3.75%之间，但美国总统 特朗普想要的是"1%甚至更低"的联邦基金利率，以及让"不听话"的现任美联储主席鲍威尔赶紧走人。 在17日的电视讲话中，特朗普表示，他将很快宣布下一任美联储主席的提名人选，而此人将是一个认同大幅降低利率的人。谁会 接替鲍威尔？ 候选人还在考察中 目前，国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特、美联储前理事凯文·沃什，以及美联储理事克里斯托弗・沃勒被认为是新任美联储主席 的"决赛圈"选手。 凯文·哈西特在宾夕法尼亚 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.447, while spot gold opened at $4,333.12 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4,324.89 per ounce [1] - The previous trading day saw the dollar index close up 0.04% at 98.444, and spot gold closed down 0.13% at $4,331.33 per ounce [1] - Other precious metals showed mixed performance, with spot silver down 1.10% at $65.45 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.95% to $1,914.25 per ounce, and palladium increased by 3.25% to $1,700.00 per ounce [1] Group 2: Inventory Data - As of December 18, COMEX gold inventory increased by 2.45 tons to 1,121.91 tons, and COMEX silver inventory rose by 7.02 tons to 14,095.37 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings remained unchanged at 1,052.54 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings also stayed the same at 16,018.29 tons [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The US November unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate recorded at 2.7%, below the market expectation of 3.1%, while the core CPI year-on-year rate was at 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021 [4] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January increased from 26.6% to 28.8% [4] - The Director of the White House National Economic Council, Hassett, stated that the Federal Reserve still has significant room for rate cuts [5] - Federal Reserve's Goolsbee expressed concerns about the good inflation data and indicated that the terminal rate will be much lower than the current level [6]

古尔斯比与另一位地区联储主席投反对票，主张维持利率稳定，而理事米兰支持更大幅度降息。古尔斯 比上周五声明称，应等待更多通胀数据再决定是否进一步降息，新年处理此问题风险不大，且可获取最 新经济数据。他周四再次强调，在确信通胀回归目标前，不宜前置性降息，需看到降低价格压力的进 展。 今日周五（12月19日）亚盘时段，沪金主力合约今日亚盘高位窄幅震荡，价格走势略滞后于国际金价， 整体交投于977-980元/克区间。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比周四对最新CPI数据表示欢迎，认为若趋势持续，将为明年进一步降息创造条 件。他强调，利率终值将远低于当前水平，只要通胀能重回2%目标轨道，明年底大幅降息是现实的。 尽管11月CPI显示价格压力缓和，但古尔斯比提醒勿过度解读单月数据。这份因政府停摆延迟的报告引 发经济学家谨慎态度，其有利变化未被视为物价压力可持续减弱的明确信号。美联储12月10日降息25个 基点至3.5%-3.75%，旨在平衡就业市场风险与高通胀。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金价格持续运行于主要移动平均线之上，整体多头趋势格局未变。但已连续多个交易日收出上影线， 显示 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily views and evaluations on various futures varieties, including trends, trading suggestions, and price ranges for each variety [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Selected Views - Tin (SN2601): Expected to fluctuate strongly [3] - Plastic (12605): Expected to show a weak trend [3] - Coking Coal (JM2605): Expected to rebound from the bottom [3] - Rapeseed Oil (01605): Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - PT2606/PD: Suggest buying on dips [3] Full Variety Daily Reviews Stock Index - The dividend sector rose against the market, and the A - share style is defensive. The market lacks upward momentum due to the impact of the Bank of Japan's interest - rate hike expectation, and the downside space is also limited. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously. Short - term market trends may be dominated by year - end performance - chasing trading demands, and it is advisable to view the market as volatile and trade quickly if participating [3] Treasury Bonds - There are both positive factors and profit - taking demands, and the bond futures are expected to fluctuate slightly higher. It is recommended to pay attention to the central bank's MLF injection and end - of - month treasury bond trading. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and consider the market as range - bound. For the spot - futures strategy, pay attention to the positive arbitrage of the 2603 contract and the opportunity to widen the basis [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices are still inhibited in upward momentum but remain strongly volatile. It is recommended to hold long positions. Silver may enter the overbought range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Platinum and palladium may correct in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - Expected to fluctuate in the short - term [3] Steel - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. The rebar in May should be watched in the range of 3000 - 3200 yuan, and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [3] Iron Ore - Iron ore is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 730 - 800 [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1000 - 1200 [3] Coke - Coke is expected to rebound with fluctuations. The reference range is 1500 - 1650 [3] Copper - It is advisable to wait and see in the short - term, and pay attention to the support at 90000 - 91000 [3] Alumina - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2450 - 2700. Short - term traders can go long on dips [3] Aluminum - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 21700 - 22400. It is recommended to go long on dips [3] Aluminum Alloy - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20700 - 21400. It is recommended to go long on AD03 and short on AL03 for arbitrage [3] Zinc - Pay attention to the support at 22850 - 22950, and continue to hold the cross - market reverse arbitrage [3] Tin - Hold existing long positions and buy on dips [3] Nickel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 114000 - 118000 [3] Stainless Steel - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12500 - 13000 [3] Industrial Silicon - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8000 - 8800 [3] Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to wait and see [3] Lithium Carbonate - The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 98,000 - 102,000. Reduce long positions [3] PX - Conduct rolling low - buying operations [3] PTA - Conduct rolling low - buying operations and low - level positive arbitrage between TA5 - 9 [3] Short - Fiber - The operation is the same as PTA. Compress the processing fee on the disk when it is high [3] Bottle Chips - Sell PR2602 - P - 5500 on rallies. The processing fee on the main contract is expected to be strong in the short - term, fluctuating in the range of 300 - 450 yuan/ton [3] Ethanol - Sell EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies to obtain time value [3] Pure Benzene - It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5300 - 5600 [3] Styrene - It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [3] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE: Wait and see [3] - PP: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profit [3] - MA: Narrow the MTO of the 05 contract [3] - Caustic Soda: Be bearish [3] - PVC: Be bearish on the rebound [3] - Soda Ash: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3] - Glass: Wait and see [3] - Natural Rubber: Wait and see [3] - Synthetic Rubber: Pay attention to the pressure at around 11200 for BR2602 [3] Grains and Oils -粕类: Narrow - range adjustment [3] - Live Pigs: In a bottom - grinding market [3] - Corn: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Vegetable Oils: The decline has slowed down. The P main contract may test the support at 8200 - 8300 in the short - term [3] - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Cotton: Pay attention to the resistance at around 14050 - 14100 [3] - Eggs: Expected to fluctuate weakly [3] - Apples: It is recommended to exit long positions opportunistically [3] - Red Dates: Buy low and sell high [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro-finance: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to trade in a range [1][5] - Black building materials: Short-term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; sell on rallies for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous metals: Reduce positions on rallies for copper and replenish on low-level stabilization; strengthen observation for aluminum; observe or sell on rallies for nickel; range trading for tin, gold; hold long positions for silver and be cautious about new positions; expect lithium carbonate to trade with a strong bias [1][11][12][18][19] - Energy and chemicals: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol; expect polyolefins to trade with a weak bias; temporarily observe caustic soda and soda ash [1][21][22][23][25][26][28] - Cotton textile industry chain: Bullish with a bias for cotton and cotton yarn; expect PTA to rise in a range; bearish with a bias for apples and jujubes [1][30][31][32] - Agricultural and livestock products: Short-term short-selling on rallies for near-term contracts of live pigs and cautious bullishness for far-term contracts; expect eggs to trade in a range; be cautious about chasing highs in the short term for corn and hedge on rallies for grain holders; range trading for soybean meal, with a bullish bias for near-term contracts and a bearish bias for far-term contracts; be cautious about short-selling for oils and fats [1][34][35][36][37] Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for various futures products in different industries, considering factors such as supply and demand, macroeconomic conditions, and policy impacts. It emphasizes the importance of risk management and the need for investors to make decisions based on their own investment goals and risk tolerance [1][5][8][9][11][12][18][19][21][22][23][25][26][28][30][31][32][34][35][36][37] Summary by Industry Macro-finance - Stock indices are expected to trade in a range in the short term but are bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips, as US inflation has slowed more than expected [5] - Government bonds are expected to trade in a range, with short - term rates potentially stabilizing if long - term yields do not reach new highs and funding rates remain stable [5] Black building materials - Coking coal market is in a tug - of - war between strong bearish factors and weak bullish factors, with short - term trading recommended [8] - Rebar is expected to trade in a range, with low valuation and weak driving forces, and a weak downward trend [9] - Glass is expected to trade weakly, with a strategy of selling on rallies due to high inventory, weak demand, and potential supply increases [9][10] Non-ferrous metals - Copper is expected to trade in a high - level range, with a strategy of reducing positions on rallies and replenishing on low - level stabilization, due to short - term overheating and potential technical adjustments [11] - Aluminum is expected to rebound, but investors are advised to strengthen observation due to factors such as changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand [12] - Nickel is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of observing or selling on rallies, as the medium - to - long - term supply is expected to be in surplus [16] - Tin is expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of range trading, considering factors such as supply tightness and potential demand recovery [17][18] - Silver and gold are expected to trade in a range, with a strategy of holding long positions for silver and range trading for gold, as the medium - term price centers are expected to rise [18] - Lithium carbonate is expected to trade with a strong bias, with attention paid to supply disruptions and demand trends [19] Energy and chemicals - PVC is expected to trade in a low - level range, with weak fundamentals but potential support from low valuation and policy or cost changes [19][21] - Caustic soda is expected to trade in a low - level range, with investors advised to temporarily observe due to high inventory and potential impacts from alumina production [21] - Styrene is expected to trade in a range, with a focus on changes in pure benzene prices and crude oil pricing [22][23] - Rubber is expected to trade in a wide - range, with support from supply disruptions but limited upside due to high inventory and weak demand [23][24] - Urea is expected to trade in a range, with a relatively stable supply - demand pattern [24][25] - Methanol is expected to trade in a range, with supply recovery, high - level but slightly declining downstream demand, and inventory reduction [26] - Polyolefins are expected to trade with a weak bias, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [26][27] - Soda ash investors are advised to temporarily observe, as the supply - demand contradiction may be alleviated after supply contraction and there is cost support [28] Cotton textile industry chain - Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade with a strong bias, as recent domestic cotton sales are fast and yarn prices are firm [30] - PTA is expected to rise in a range, driven by rising crude oil prices and supply - demand inventory reduction [30][31] - Apples and jujubes are expected to trade with a weak bias, with slow inventory sales [31][32] Agricultural and livestock products - Live pigs are expected to form a bottom in a range, with short - term supply pressure and long - term potential for price recovery after capacity reduction [32][34] - Eggs are expected to trade in a range, with short - term stability, medium - term improvement in supply - demand balance, and long - term supply pressure [34][35][36] - Corn is expected to trade with a weak bias, with short - term selling pressure and long - term support from demand recovery but limited upside [36] - Soybean meal is expected to trade in a range, with a bullish bias for near - term contracts and a bearish bias for far - term contracts [37] - Oils and fats are expected to have intensified corrections, and investors are advised to be cautious about short - selling [37][38][39][40][41][42]