1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macroeconomics**: China agrees to engage in trade talks with the US, and the market is awaiting the outcome of the meeting. The key for an unexpected outcome lies in whether there will be a full - scale interest rate cut. The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI shows a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9][10][11]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance. The market is affected by overseas interest - rate cut expectations, PMI data, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Caution is advised for investors, and those who are risk - averse may choose to wait and see [12]. - **Shipping to Europe**: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential. The focus is on the peak - season performance, and the market is waiting for the inflection point of cargo volume [13][14]. - **Agricultural Products**: Different agricultural products have different trends. For example, cotton prices are under pressure due to concerns about demand and supply improvements; sugar prices are expected to decline due to increased supply from Brazil; palm oil and soybean meal are recommended to be shorted; egg prices are expected to be weak due to increasing supply; apple prices may rise, and a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended; and for dates, short - positions should be gradually closed [15][16][20][21]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is in a multi - factor game, and fuel oil is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. Plastics, methanol, etc. are recommended to be shorted. Rubber is in a short - term range - bound state. LPG's long - term price center may decline, but it is relatively strong compared to crude oil in the short term [24][26][27][35]. - **Metals**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile, and alumina may repair upward in the short term. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are under pressure due to supply - side issues. Steel and iron ore prices are expected to be weak in the medium term, and coking coal and coke prices are in a downward channel [38][40][42][44]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Information - The US has shown an intention to adjust tariff measures and hopes to talk with China. China has decided to engage in contact. Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen during his visit to Switzerland [9]. - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference to introduce "a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations" [9]. - The Minister of Finance states that China will adopt more proactive macro - policies and is confident of achieving the 5% growth target in 2025 [9]. - The 4 - month Caixin Services PMI is 50.7, down 1.2 percentage points from March, and the composite PMI output index drops 0.7 percentage points to 51.1, indicating a slowdown in the expansion of domestic business activities [9]. - The "Fed whisperer" suggests that the Fed may postpone interest - rate cuts, and the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged in May [10]. - The US trade deficit in March increases by 14% month - on - month to a record high of $140.5 billion, with imports rising by 4.4% to a record $419 billion and exports rising slightly by 0.2% [10]. Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Focus on whether there is a "good news realized" logic in funds and pay attention to the upper resistance [10]. - Influencing factors: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the progress of Sino - US trade talks [10][11]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Monitor the interest - rate cut policy in the meeting. If there is no unexpected policy, the strength of medium - long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may continue. Risk - averse investors are advised to wait and see [12]. - Influencing factors: Loose capital at the beginning of the month, overseas interest - rate cut expectations during the holiday, weak Caixin Services PMI, and the upcoming press conference [12]. Shipping to Europe - Market outlook: The market is pessimistic about the freight rates in May and June. The 08 contract has limited upside potential due to failed price increases in March, April, and the first half of May and a downward - moving price center. The focus is on the peak - season performance [13]. - Fluctuation reasons: EU's additional tariffs on some Chinese goods, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the reaction of the market to shipping companies' price - increase attempts [14]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Logic and view: Domestic cotton prices are weak due to concerns about actual orders and demand. The market is affected by international trade frictions and the supply situation in the US [15]. - Future outlook: Pay attention to macro - economic changes, US cotton planting and export situations, and domestic downstream orders and production starts [15]. Sugar - Logic and view: There is sufficient short - term supply, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The market is influenced by Brazil's production increase and concerns about global economic recession [16]. - Future outlook: The international sugar market is shifting its focus to Brazil's 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Domestic sugar prices may be affected by import supplies and new - season sugarcane production [17][19]. Oils and Oilseeds - Strategy: Short palm oil and soybean meal at high prices. The risk factors include policy changes, abnormal weather, and soybean arrivals [20]. - Future outlook: Palm oil supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. Soybean meal supply is increasing, and prices are under pressure [20]. Eggs - View: Adopt a bearish approach to egg futures. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak [20][21]. - Future outlook: Egg prices are below the cost line, and the supply is likely to increase further due to large egg - laying hen capacity and high inventory [21]. Apples - View: Adopt a light - position positive spread strategy. The market is affected by the apple - setting situation in the western region [22]. - Future outlook: Spot prices in production and sales areas are stable and strong. The new - season apple production situation needs further evaluation [23]. Dates - View: Close short positions in batches and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in production areas [23]. - Future outlook: The growth of jujube trees in Xinjiang is normal. The market is affected by the Dragon Boat Festival stocking and supply - demand situation in sales areas [23]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Fluctuation reason: OPEC+ plans to increase production, and the market is in a multi - factor game between supply increase and potential trade - war easing [24]. - Future outlook: The market may be dominated by supply increase and economic recession. If the trade war eases, prices may rebound [24]. Fuel Oil - Outlook: The demand is affected by tariff policies, and the price is expected to follow the oil price but be relatively stronger. The market needs to evaluate the impact of the trade war on demand [26]. Plastics - View: Short L and PP. The prices are affected by the decline in raw material prices and weak downstream demand [27]. Rubber - Strategy: Short - term range - bound trading. Consider light - position short - term long positions with stop - losses during corrections. Pay attention to the change in the RU - NR spread [28]. Methanol - View: Adopt a bearish and volatile trading strategy. The market is affected by weak downstream demand and the international trade environment [29]. Caustic Soda - Outlook: The short - term demand improvement pushes up the futures price, but the sustainability of the increase needs to be observed. Adopt a range - bound trading strategy [30]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda Ash: The supply is expected to improve marginally in May, but the supply - demand situation remains loose. The price rebound space is limited [31]. - Glass: The price is expected to be volatile or decline due to weak demand and high inventory. Pay attention to the improvement of terminal demand in May [32]. Asphalt - Future outlook: The price is expected to fluctuate around 3400 yuan/ton. The inventory is stable, and the price is supported by the cost [32]. Polyester Industry Chain - View: The price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the upside space is limited in the medium term. The market is affected by the trade war and supply - side adjustments [34]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Outlook: The long - term price may decline, but domestic PG is relatively strong compared to crude oil due to the trade war. The market is affected by supply, demand, and import costs [35]. Metals Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: The price is expected to be volatile. The market is affected by Sino - US trade talks and demand resilience [38]. - Alumina: The price may repair upward in the short term due to cost reduction and supply - demand improvement. However, the long - term supply overhang remains [38]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: The price is expected to decline due to over - supply and difficulty in de - stocking. Adopt a bearish trading strategy [40]. - Polysilicon: The price is under pressure in the medium term. Consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Steel and Iron Ore - Market view: The short - term price may be volatile, and the medium - term trend is expected to be weak. The market is affected by domestic policies, supply - demand, and cost factors [42]. Coking Coal and Coke - View: The prices are in a downward channel. There is no condition for going long until there is large - scale production reduction or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [44]. Ferroalloys - Silicon Iron: Go long on an intraday basis. The price is affected by the reduction of settlement electricity fees [45]. - Manganese Silicon: Sell the 06 - contract put options. The market is affected by electricity fees and supply - demand [45].

继续按兵不动 进一步宽松的门槛在哪里？ 当地时间6日，为期两天的美联储货币政策会议在华盛顿正式拉开帷幕。 去年降息100个基点后，美联储今年暂停了宽松步伐。美国总统特朗普对此大为不满，美联储主席鲍威 尔被罢免的消息一度引发资本市场动荡。市场普遍预期，本次会议联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将 继续按兵不动，因为关税政策对通胀和经济的影响尚有待观察，由于此次不更新经济预测，焦点将集中 在美联储对未来降息以支撑经济的任何信号的附带评论上，这需要在就业稳定和担忧之间取得平衡。 美国商务部上周宣布，一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP）以0.3%的年率萎缩，这是自2022年初以来 GDP的首次收缩。 经济降速主要受到贸易逆差的影响。在特朗普赢得总统选举后，美国贸易赤字从去年12月开始激增。5 日最新公布的数据显示，包括商品和服务在内的美国国际贸易逆差在3月份扩大了14%，经季节性调整 后达到创纪录的1405亿美元，这对于GDP拖累超过4个百分点。 不过，就业市场的稳定让经济担忧有所缓解。美国劳工部报告称，4月美国新增17.7万个工作岗位，高 于预期，失业率保持在4.2%不变。与此同时，初请失业金人数等高频指标依然维持在20- ...

国外 1. 高盛：黄金的表现将继续优于白银 周一，高盛在一份报告中称，黄金将继续跑赢白银，央行需求强劲是推高金银价格比的一个因素。因 此，该行预计白银不会赶上目前正在持续的黄金涨势。高盛还表示，如果经济衰退发生，估计ETF资金 流入的加速将推动黄金价格到年底达到3880美元。该行重申对黄金的结构性看涨观点，基本预期年底金 价为每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期则达4000美元。 2. 高盛：美联储不太可能因为"软数据"疲弱就降息 美国消费者和企业调查显示出一种焦虑的经济情绪，但基础数据尚未显示经济严重放缓。高盛经济学家 写道，美联储不太可能仅根据"软数据"就放松政策，尤其是因为在最近的过去，软数据错误地预示着衰 退即将来临，比如美联储在2022年抗击通胀期间。高盛的团队写道，美联储"在降息之前，也希望看到 劳动力市场和其他硬数据的证据"。这家投行和华尔街其他机构一样，相信美联储将在周三的利率决议 中保持利率不变。 3. 大摩：美联储不会先发制人 摩根士丹利由首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen领衔的分析师团队在一份研报中写道："鉴于美联储预计 通胀将保持坚挺，且关税冲击可能会产生持续的通胀效应，美联储 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report suggests that the U.S. economy is not a safe haven amid economic slowdown, challenging previous assumptions about U.S. assets [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - The U.S. stock market has experienced high volatility followed by a prolonged rally, yet its valuation remains optimistic, with the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio at 21 times, based on projected earnings growth of 10% and 14% for the next two years [3]. - There is a significant increase in the probability of a U.S. recession, rising from 22% in January to 53% in a recent CNBC survey, indicating growing concerns about economic slowdown [4]. - Supply chain data indicates a sharp decline in U.S. port import and export volumes, signaling challenges in foreign trade activities [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Consumer confidence has dropped significantly, with the Conference Board's consumer expectations index reaching its lowest level since 2011, suggesting weakened consumer spending, a critical driver of U.S. economic growth [4]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies is translating into real economic pain, complicating valuation analyses in the current economic environment [5]. - The notion that technology stocks and the dollar may no longer serve as safe havens during market turmoil is highlighted, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3].

张尧浠：美联储决议来袭、金价仍有望再探3500美元 上交易日周二(5月6日)：国际黄金如期继续反弹拉升强势收涨，继续走出雷同于4月8日收取止跌倒垂形态后的连续反弹攀升行情，同时也暗示本周有望再探 3500美元或新高的可能。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3335.38美元/盎司，即8点时段先行录得日内低点3323.33美元后，则再度回升反弹，虽自10点时段触及3387美元回撤37美金至 3350美元，但就此多头再度发力，持续反弹走强，延续至美盘尾收盘时段录得日内高点3434.74美元，最终收于3430.35美元，日振幅111.41美元，收涨94.97 美元，涨幅2.85%。 影响上，因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，推动金价早盘拉升，虽有所遇阻回撤，但看涨买盘仍在，另外，印度武装部队发 动"辛杜尔行动"，对巴基斯坦多个地点进行攻击，再加上有消息称，如果谈判失败，欧盟将对1000亿欧元的美国商品征收关税，并且，美国3月贸易逆差扩 大至创纪录的1405亿美元等，助力金价持续走强拉升，冲击3400美元上方，并持稳收线。 展望今日周三(5月7日)：国际黄金受到今日凌晨印巴局势陡然升级的影响，小幅高开 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 5 月 7 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 中美贸易紧张形势缓和前景以及美乌签署矿产协议，一度将伦敦黄金压低至 3200 美元/盎司附近；但特朗普转身又对电影行业发出新的关税威胁，且重启对 乌克兰军售，因此避险需求在短期走弱后重新强化，印度与巴基斯坦的潜在冲突 也吸引市场的注意，5 月 6 日伦敦黄金持续反弹至 3400 美元/盎司附近，人民币 兑美元汇率升值使得国内金银相对偏弱。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局进入 乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the collective appreciation of Asian currencies during the May Day holiday, primarily driven by the significant appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, which rose by 6.8% [2][8]. - The appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar is attributed to exporters selling US dollars and insurance companies' foreign exchange hedging operations, which may have intensified the currency's rise [11][12]. - The article suggests that the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar may not be an isolated case, as a weakening US dollar could lead to a repatriation of foreign assets, further driving local currency appreciation [11][12]. Group 2 - During the May Day holiday, global asset performance leaned towards a "risk-on" sentiment, with major stock markets experiencing gains, particularly the Nasdaq index, which rose by 3% [4][18]. - The US non-farm payrolls for April exceeded expectations, with an increase of 177,000 jobs, indicating a robust labor market and alleviating recession concerns [5][29]. - The US GDP for Q1 turned negative for the first time since Q3 2022, recording a -0.3% growth rate, primarily due to a significant decline in net exports [5][35]. Group 3 - The Bank of Japan decided to pause interest rate hikes, maintaining the policy rate at 0.5%, citing uncertainties related to tariff policies as a key factor [5][36]. - The OPEC+ meeting on May 3 agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, which is three times the original planned increase, leading to a significant drop in oil prices [6][41]. - Warren Buffett announced his retirement at the end of the year during the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, emphasizing the importance of not using trade as a weapon and expressing optimism about the US economy [7][42].

Market Overview - US stock indices opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.7%, Nasdaq down 0.94%, and S&P 500 down 0.75% [2][3] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Tesla, Nvidia, and Google A dropping over 1% [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Chinese stocks showed resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 0.7% [3] - Notable gainers included Tencent Music and Weibo, both up over 2%, while NIO fell over 2% [3] Economic Data - The US trade deficit for March reached a record $140.5 billion, exceeding the forecast of $137.2 billion and up from $122.7 billion previously [2] - Exports were $278.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while imports were $418.96 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [2] Agricultural Exports Impact - The decline in US exports has affected agricultural products significantly, with major ports like Oregon and Tacoma seeing export drops of 51% and 28% respectively [4] - The overall impact has been widespread across US ports, indicating a severe disruption in agricultural exports [4] EU-US Trade Relations - EU Trade Commissioner Sefcovic indicated that US tariffs currently cover 70% of EU goods trade, potentially rising to 97% after further investigations [5] - The EU is preparing countermeasures against US tariffs and aims for a fair negotiation outcome [6] Gold and Oil Market Trends - Gold prices continued to rise, with London gold up nearly 2% and COMEX gold up over 2% [7] - Goldman Sachs projected gold prices could reach $3,700 per ounce by year-end, with potential increases to $4,500 in extreme scenarios [7] - Global gold demand reached 1,206 tons in Q1, the strongest first-quarter demand since 2016 [8] - Oil prices surged, with NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent both rising over 3% [8]

美国财长贝森特表示，数据中没有迹象表明美国处于经济衰退，预计第一季度GDP数据将上调。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings predicts that due to the impact of U.S. tariffs, Canada is expected to enter an economic recession, with GDP projected to decline for three consecutive quarters starting from the second quarter [1] Group 1 - The anticipated economic downturn in Canada is attributed to the effects of U.S. tariffs [1] - The forecast indicates a decline in Canadian GDP over three quarters [1]