Core Viewpoint - LME copper prices are declining, reflecting cautious market sentiment influenced by trade negotiations and the investigation into U.S. copper import tariffs [1] Group 1 - LME copper prices have experienced a downturn, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1] - Market sentiment remains cautious as stakeholders await developments in trade negotiations [1] - The ongoing investigation into U.S. copper import tariffs is contributing to uncertainty in copper pricing [1]

特朗普（资料图） 据红星新闻报道，近日，美国政府一边施压贸易伙伴，要求其提交贸易谈判的最佳方案，一边继续挥舞关税大棒，将钢铝产品关税翻倍。与此同时，经合组 织年内第二次下调美国今年经济增长预期，并指出美国相关政策剧烈变化导致包括美国在内多个经济体增长预期下调。经合组织首席经济学家佩雷拉表示， 美国关税政策给全球贸易带来不确定性，严重冲击世界经济。佩雷拉说，当前全球经济贸易政策面临前所未有的重大不确定性，这对各项经济指标产生深远 影响。 特朗普（资料图） 根据路透社曝光的信函草案，特朗普政府要求各谈判国在4日0时提交各国最优核心提案。要求降低对美国工业品、农产品的关税壁垒，扩大采购配额；并承 诺数据跨境流动、禁止强制技术转让；取消针对美企的歧视性法规；经济安全合作方面，要在供应链、关键技术领域对美"表忠心"。若未按时提交，美国将 单方面评估并抛出"对等关税"方案——即直接匹配各国对美商品的现行税率，最高可达100%。特朗普为何如此急迫的向各国施压？ 其实主要原因还是有中国，截至目前，中美关税博弈的变数仍然很大。一方面，美国对华关税豁免至8月30日。美国的这一退让被视为是"以退为进"。另一 方面，中国在整场博弈的 ...

随着美国特朗普政府所谓"对等关税"的90天暂停期将于7月9日到期，美国政府官员担忧，该关税面临的 司法裁决会扰乱与其他经济体的谈判进程。 当地时间6月9日，美国司法部向美国联邦巡回上诉法院提交了一份长达18页的文件，请求延长对下级法 院裁定的暂缓执行期限。文件警告，如果不这样做可能会威胁"敏感贸易谈判"，甚至对美国经济造 成"灾难性冲击"。 这场法律纠纷源于5月28日美国国际贸易法院的一项历史性裁决。该法院认为《国际紧急经济权力法》 （IEEPA）并未授予美国总统无限制的关税制定权限，与此相关的全球关税、报复性关税以及芬太尼关 税应当被废止。 美国投资研究机构NDR美国行业策略师安德森（Rob Anderson）对第一财经记者表示，国际贸易法院的 裁决并未完全消除关税问题，市场波动可能会持续。面对当前的司法挑战，特朗普政府仍可能会通过其 他法律途径或杠杆推动关税实施，长期不确定性依然存在。 安德森提醒说，当前经济数据好坏参半，"从某些指标看，美国经济仍存在一些隐忧，情况可能会恶 化"。 特朗普政府担心裁决不利于谈判 今年4月，由小型企业联盟和多个民主党主政州组成的原告团体，将特朗普政府的关税政策诉至美国国 际 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **U.S. economy**, **trade negotiations**, and the **labor market**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trade Negotiations and Tariffs** - The U.S. is approaching a 90-day deadline for trade negotiations, with three potential outcomes: reaching agreements, extending the deadline, or reinstating tariffs. The likelihood of extending the deadline is high, but reinstating tariffs could lead to market turmoil [1][5][6]. 2. **Market Reactions to Trade Talks** - The U.S. stock market showed positive performance, with the S&P 500 index surpassing 6,000 points, influenced by trade negotiations and stable economic data [2]. 3. **U.S.-China Trade Relations** - Recent communications between U.S. and Chinese leaders indicate a potential thaw in relations, with discussions on tariffs and trade agreements, particularly concerning rare earth exports [8]. 4. **Labor Market Stability** - The U.S. labor market remains stable, with job openings rebounding and non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations. The unemployment rate is steady at 4.2%, indicating resilience despite tariff pressures [9][10][11]. 5. **Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations** - Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have decreased significantly, with projections now suggesting one to two cuts by the end of the year, down from earlier expectations of more substantial cuts [12]. 6. **Market Response to Economic Data** - Following the release of non-farm payroll data, U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply, particularly for 2-year bonds, while the stock market reacted positively due to the perceived stability of the economy [13][14]. 7. **Inflation and Monetary Policy** - The focus is on controlling inflation rather than government debt levels. The government can manage funding through monetary issuance, but inflation poses a greater risk to economic stability [15][16]. 8. **Fiscal Policy Outlook** - Future U.S. macroeconomic conditions are expected to be characterized by a combination of loose fiscal policy and supportive monetary policy, aimed at maintaining stable exchange rates and controlling inflation [21]. 9. **Upcoming Economic Data** - Key upcoming data includes CPI and PPI reports, with expectations for core CPI to rebound. Market reactions will depend on whether these figures meet or exceed expectations [22]. 10. **Absence of Large-Scale Stimulus** - There are no indications of large-scale economic stimulus measures from the U.S. government, suggesting that any economic pressures in the second half of the year will be localized and structural rather than widespread [23]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The potential for a significant shift in U.S.-China relations hinges on tariff negotiations, which could have broader implications for global trade dynamics [8]. - The labor market's stability is crucial for consumer purchasing power, which in turn supports economic growth despite external pressures [11]. - The relationship between the dollar's exchange rate and inflation control is emphasized, highlighting the importance of maintaining a stable dollar to mitigate inflationary pressures [19][20].

尽管黄金/美元受益于美元的普遍疲软，并在周四触及3400美元以上的新多周高点，但最终收盘时仍处于负区间。在宣布基准利率下调25个基点后，欧洲央 行行长克里斯蒂娜·拉加德对记者表示，央行可能已达到宽松周期的终点。这一鹰派言论引发了黄金/欧元的急剧下跌，表明欧元吸引了黄金的资本外流。与 此同时，美国总统特朗普表示，他与中国进行了电话交谈，讨论贸易问题，并指出他们的团队将很快会面进行下一轮谈判。这一进展帮助市场情绪改善，并 对黄金施加了额外压力。 美国劳工统计局（BLS）周五宣布，5月份非农就业人数（NFP）增加139,000，超出市场预期的130,000。就业报告的其他细节显示，失业率保持在4.2%，符 合预期。由于这些数据支持美元，黄金/美元在进入周末时难以恢复其动能。 黄金投资者将密切关注美国通胀数据和贸易谈判 在周一亚洲时段的早盘交易中，市场参与者将密切关注中国5月份的贸易帐数据。如果由于与美国的贸易冲突，中国的贸易顺差显著缩小，市场的实时反应 可能会导致黄金下跌。这一数据可能表明贵金属需求前景恶化，并可能使市场认为中国可能会更加努力地达成与美国的贸易协议。 周三，美国BLS将发布5月份消费者物价指数（CP ...

今天市场正常兑现了我们昨天提到的一个观点：外部扰动似乎正在降低，一些转机正在路上。今天几大 指数基本都翻红了，包括香港市场也能感受到这股暖风。我们来跟进一下这些转机何时可能兑现。 首先，最值得关注的就是中美之间的谈判。今天，双方在英国伦敦正式开始了谈判，谈判周期最长为5 天，这意味着本周内应该会有一些利好消息对外释放。要知道，这次中国谈判代表手中是有筹码的，尤 其是在战略性资源方面，比如稀土。这种资源的供给是对方急需的。对方现在急于解决国内问题，同时 也急切地想推进与其他国家的贸易谈判。 所以，他们急需与中国谈判，以取得一些有利结果。无论最终是在稀土出口上达成协议，还是在科技封 锁上稍微松绑，或者是在关税税率上做出一些妥协，只要在任何一个方向上取得一点进展，对于整体资 本市场来说都是有利的信号。除了与美国谈判外，中国还在与其他主要贸易伙伴紧密谈判。其中最重量 级的就是与欧盟的谈判。这其实也是一种谈判策略，即多条线同时推进，相互配合，间接施压。 最近一两天，商务部释放了一些消息，称与欧洲的谈判可能会取得实质性进展，特别是在一些关键产 业，如电动汽车领域。可能会达成一些阶段性利好，比如中国的一些汽车生产商做出价格 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights that after three consecutive days of gains, the Hong Kong stock market faced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,792 points, down 114 points or 0.48% [2] - The Hang Seng Technology Index underperformed, dropping 0.63%, while the overall market saw a weekly increase of 502 points or 2.16%, outperforming most global markets [2][3] - Northbound trading recorded a net inflow for the eighth consecutive day, with a significant increase of 813% on Friday, amounting to 6.766 billion HKD [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices, six sectors rose while six fell, with materials, healthcare, and real estate leading the gains, increasing by 2.44% to 0.52% [3] - The report notes a rebound in the US stock market, driven by technology stocks, with major indices rising between 1.03% and 1.20% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Xiaomi Group - Xiaomi's smartphone business saw a revenue increase of 8.9% year-over-year, reaching 50.6 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a global smartphone shipment of 41.8 million units, up 3.0% [6] - The company's average selling price (ASP) for smartphones hit a record high of 1,211 CNY, reflecting a 5.8% year-over-year increase, although the gross margin decreased by 2.4 percentage points to 12.4% due to rising core component prices [6] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment generated 32.3 billion CNY in revenue, a 58.7% increase year-over-year, with significant growth in smart home appliances [7] - The automotive segment reported a revenue of 18.1 billion CNY, delivering 75,869 electric vehicles, with a gross margin of 23.2%, indicating a potential turnaround in profitability [8] - The report sets a target price of 60.5 HKD per share for Xiaomi, suggesting a 17.4% upside from the recent closing price, maintaining a "buy" rating [8]

Core Viewpoint - Japan is leveraging a cooperation proposal related to China in exchange for concessions on tariffs during the ongoing US-Japan trade negotiations, which have been stalled since the implementation of strict tariff policies by the Trump administration [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Ryo, is participating in the fifth round of tariff negotiations with the US, aiming to address the approximately $60 billion trade deficit between the two countries [1]. - The US has maintained a hardline stance on tariffs, particularly in the automotive and steel sectors, insisting on measures to eliminate the trade deficit [1][3]. - Japan's willingness to compromise has shifted due to changing international circumstances, indicating a more assertive negotiation strategy [1][3]. Group 2: Cooperation Proposals - Japan's cooperation proposal includes leveraging its advantages in rare earth processing and recycling to assist the US in utilizing globally sourced rare earth materials, as well as exploring collaboration in graphite and gallium [1]. - In the semiconductor sector, Japan plans to purchase billions of dollars' worth of semiconductor products from US companies like Nvidia and is considering assistance in producing materials needed for chip manufacturing [1][3]. Group 3: Energy and Shipbuilding - Japan is considering increasing imports of US liquefied natural gas and has proposed support for new projects in Alaska and increased production in Louisiana and Texas [3]. - In shipbuilding, Japan aims to collaborate with the US to build icebreakers, taking into account the influence of China [3]. Group 4: Internal US Dynamics - The US negotiation team is experiencing significant internal divisions, with differing views among key officials, complicating the negotiation process for Japan [3]. - The lack of coordination and information sharing among US officials has led to repeated discussions and delays in the negotiation process [3]. Group 5: Japan's Strategic Position - Japan holds significant leverage with its holdings of US Treasury bonds, and any large-scale sell-off could exert substantial pressure on the US economy [5]. - The dynamics of US-China relations have provided Japan with insights and confidence to adopt a firmer negotiating stance [5]. Group 6: International Implications - The outcome of the US-Japan trade negotiations will not only impact bilateral economic relations but also have broader implications for regional and global economic structures [5][7]. - Japan's strategy must consider the potential backlash from China if its cooperation proposals adversely affect Chinese interests, highlighting the risks involved in the negotiations [5][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound in coal and coking prices was mainly driven by news such as a 20% resource - tax increase on Mongolian coal exports, sudden production cuts in Shanxi, and capacity clearance due to the new Mineral Resources Law. However, the authenticity of these news has been gradually disproven. After the emotional release, the market will return to being fundamentally driven. Since the spot prices have not significantly increased, the off - season pressure will lead to the intervention of industrial hedging funds, which will resist the continuous rise of prices. The current futures price rebound is regarded as a basis - narrowing market. Its sustainability depends on the cooperation of spot prices and changes in market expectations of the supply - side production capacity [2][22] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market**: Last week, the opening price of the main coking coal contract JM2509 was 726.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 796.0 yuan/ton, a low of 709.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 778.5 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 37.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous week's settlement price. The trading volume was 4,897,442.0 lots, and the open interest was 556,894.0 lots. The opening price of the main coke contract J2509 was 1,311.0 yuan/ton, with a high of 1,379.0 yuan/ton, a low of 1,280.5 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 1,350.5 yuan/ton, a fluctuation of 42.0 yuan/ton compared to the previous week's settlement price. The trading volume was 139,922.0 lots, and the open interest was 53,370.0 lots [4] - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) in Shaheyi was 110 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main coke contract was - 22 yuan/ton [4] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between the 2509 coke contract and the 2509 coking coal contract was 572.0 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Domestic Spot Market - S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Shanxi coal) in Jiexiu was priced at 970 yuan/ton (unchanged); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 5) in Shaheyi was 889 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan/ton); S1.3 G75 main coking coal (Mongolian 3) in Shaheyi was 901 yuan/ton (down 5 yuan/ton) [5] 3.3 Port Information - **Inventory**: As of June 7, 2025, the total coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 645.00 million tons, at Caofeidian Port was 565.00 million tons, at Jingtang Port was 826.80 million tons, and at Xingang of Guangzhou Port was 47.40 million tons [11] - **Quotations**: The ex - warehouse price of Shanxi main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1290 yuan/ton, the ex - warehouse price of foreign - trade Australian main coking coal at Qingdao Port was 1205 yuan/ton, at Lianyungang Port was 1205 yuan/ton, at Rizhao Port was 1110 yuan/ton, and at Tianjin Port was 1195 yuan/ton [11] 3.4 Freight Information - As of June 6, 2025, the China Coastal Coal Freight Index (CBCFI) was 693.19, the Panamax Freight Index (BPI) was 1,246.00, the Capesize Freight Index (BCI) was 2,842.00, the Supramax Freight Index (BSI) was 933.00, and the Handysize Freight Index (BHSI) was 472.00 [13] 3.5 Coking Industry - **Coke Price Index**: The price of quasi - first - grade coke in Lvliang was 1040 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton); in Tangshan, it was 1240 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton); at Rizhao Port, it was 1200 yuan/ton (unchanged) [16] - **Coke Inventory**: This week, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 685.5 million tons, and the coke inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 67.06 million tons [18] 3.6 Technical Analysis - The coking coal JM2509 contract closed down last week, with a support level of 700 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 900 yuan/ton. The coke J2509 contract also closed down last week, with a support level of 1250 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 1400 yuan/ton [20] 3.7 Views and Operation Suggestions - **View**: The current futures price rebound is regarded as a basis - narrowing market, and its sustainability depends on the cooperation of spot prices and changes in market expectations of the supply - side production capacity [22] - **Operation Suggestion**: Adopt range - bound trading [23]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in oil prices marks the end of a four-month decline, with expectations for further increases in the near future, potentially leading domestic gasoline prices to exceed 7 yuan per liter [1][3]. Price Trends - The current pricing cycle for oil runs from June 4 to June 17, with the next adjustment scheduled for June 17 at 24:00 [3]. - As of June 8, the domestic oil price adjustment is on hold, with a reference increase of 0.05 to 0.06 yuan per liter for 92 and 95 octane gasoline anticipated due to a 1.72% change in crude oil prices [3][5]. Market Influences - The recent rise in international oil prices is supported by a strong U.S. employment report, which has bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, thus enhancing bullish sentiment in the oil market [5]. - Despite OPEC+ planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, the onset of the summer energy consumption peak and ongoing trade negotiations between major economies have alleviated demand concerns [5][7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to a risk-averse sentiment in the market, further supporting oil price increases [5]. Future Outlook - With nine days remaining until the next price adjustment, the potential for further increases in domestic oil prices remains high, especially if the Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations materialize [7]. - The upcoming price adjustment on June 17 is anticipated to be the fifth increase of the year, with 92 octane gasoline likely to return to the "7 yuan era" [7].