Core Insights - The offshore RMB/USD exchange rate has surpassed the 7.00 mark for the first time since September 2024, marking the end of a three-year depreciation cycle and reflecting significant changes in the global economic landscape and domestic fundamentals [2] - The RMB has appreciated over 12% against the USD since its low point in 2024, making it one of the strongest currencies globally [2] Group 1: Key Drivers of RMB Appreciation - **Weakening USD**: The Federal Reserve's rate cuts have led to a decline in the USD index, which fell below 98, creating a favorable environment for non-USD currencies [2] - **Corporate Behavior**: A surge in foreign exchange settlements at year-end, with December 2025 seeing a record settlement volume exceeding $200 billion, driven by strong export performance [2][3] - **Policy Support**: The central bank's adjustments to the exchange rate and cross-border capital management have helped stabilize the RMB, with a reduction in depreciation days to 38% [3] Group 2: Economic Resilience and Structural Changes - **Industrial Upgrades**: The manufacturing sector's value added has reached 32% of the global total, with significant growth in exports of new energy vehicles and 5G equipment [4] - **Capital Market Opening**: The expansion of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and increased foreign investment in Chinese bonds have attracted over 800 billion yuan in foreign capital [4] - **Geopolitical Financial Dynamics**: The expansion of the digital RMB's cross-border payment trials and the establishment of currency settlement channels with countries like Russia and Iran indicate a strategic shift in international finance [5][6] Group 3: Implications for Businesses and Individuals - **Corporate Strategies**: Exporters are encouraged to utilize foreign exchange options to hedge against currency risks, while importers are increasing the use of RMB for cross-border transactions [8][9] - **Personal Finance**: Individuals are advised to adopt strategies such as phased currency purchases to manage costs and to consider investments in gold ETFs and Hong Kong tech stocks [10][11] - **Policy Considerations**: The need for a balanced approach to currency flexibility and cross-border regulatory cooperation is emphasized to support stability in the financial system [12][13] Group 4: Global Perspective on RMB Internationalization - **Trade Settlement**: The proportion of trade settlements in RMB with ASEAN countries has risen to 35%, positioning the RMB as a dominant regional currency [14] - **Debt Valuation**: RMB-denominated bonds in the Belt and Road Initiative have reached a historic high of 41% [14] - **Reserve Currency Status**: Countries like Pakistan and Belarus have included RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, with a share exceeding 10% [14]

图片来源：Wind 图片来源：Wind 12月25日盘中，离岸人民币对美元汇率续创15个月以来新高，升破7.0元关口。 Wind数据显示，截至25日10:29，离岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9999元，较前收盘价上涨77个基点，盘中 最高报6.9981元，升破7元关口。 在岸人民币方面，Wind数据显示，截至25日10:28，该市场汇率报7.0073元，较前收盘价上涨88个基 点，盘中最高报7.0061元。 "近期人民币升值行情，是外部压力趋缓、内部韧性增强、政策精准调控与市场预期转向等多种因素共 同作用的结果。"国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示。 庞溟分析，本轮人民币升值的直接推动力，来自美元环境的转变。市场预期，伴随美联储继续开展降 息，将进一步压制美元长期走势，为人民币提供外部升值空间。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，临近年底，企业结汇需求增加，带动人民币季节性走强；特别是近 期人民币持续走强后，前期累积的结汇需求有可能加速释放。 "人民币持续升值，会增大国内资本市场对外资的吸引力，直接增加外资的汇兑收益。就当前来说，汇 市走强有助于提振国内资本市场信心。"王青说。 对于人民币汇率升破7元关口， ...

人民币为何走强 进入四季度，尤其是11月下旬以来人民币对美元汇率持续小幅升值。 申万宏源宏观团队指出，10月下旬的汇率升值或与央行逆周期调节有关，12月或是美元走弱的助力。10月至11月，在"三价合一"的背景下，央行 重启逆周期因子、不断调升的中间价对升值有一定引导；12月以来，美元再度走弱，人民币与美元的1个月动态相关性快速回升至0.95。 时隔近15个月首次，离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"这一整数关口。 12月25日，更多反映国际投资者预期的离岸人民币对美元汇率升破"7"，这是去年10月以来首次收复这一整数关口。 | < W | | 美元兑离岸人民币 | | | O | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | USDCNH.FX | | | | | 6.99955 | | 前收 | 7.00760 | 开盘 | 7.00720 | | -0.00805 -0.11% | | 英品 | 6.99984 | 买入 | 6.99926 | | 最高 | 7.01200 | 今年来 | -4.60% | 20日 | -0.98% | | 最低 | 6.99898 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has entered a strong appreciation phase against the US dollar, with significant increases in the exchange rate observed, driven by both internal economic resilience and external factors such as a weakening dollar index [1][3][5]. Exchange Rate Performance - On December 24, the yuan's central parity rate was set at 7.0471 against the dollar, marking a rise of 52 basis points and the highest level since September 30, 2024 [3][4]. - The onshore and offshore yuan also showed appreciation, with the onshore rate peaking at 7.0125 and the offshore rate reaching 7.0013 [3][4]. - Since November 21, the yuan has appreciated significantly, with the offshore rate rising over 1200 basis points since mid-October [4][5]. Factors Driving Appreciation - The weakening of the dollar index has created a favorable external environment for the yuan's appreciation [5][6]. - Internal factors include the resilience of the Chinese economy, improved economic data, and seasonal demand for currency exchange as the year-end approaches [5][6]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a focus on maintaining a stable exchange rate, which supports market expectations [10]. Market Reactions - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks from currency fluctuations [7]. - The appreciation of the yuan has mixed effects on trade, lowering costs for importers while pressuring exporters due to reduced price competitiveness [7][8]. Future Outlook - The market anticipates that the yuan may continue to approach the 7.0 mark, with potential for temporary breaches, but sustained appreciation will depend on further internal and external factors [9][10]. - The central economic work conference has reiterated the goal of maintaining a stable exchange rate, indicating that significant fluctuations are not desired [10].

（央视财经《经济信息联播》）今天（24日），中国人民银行公布的人民币对美元中间价调升52个基 点，报7.0471，创近15个月新高。人民币汇率的强势表现受到哪些因素支撑？ 兴业研究汇率首席研究员 郭嘉沂：（此前）待结汇盘一直处于累积的高位，很多企业持观望态度，临 近年末，此前观望的企业进行了结汇行为，进一步造成人民币快速升值。 兴业研究汇率首席研究员 郭嘉沂：国内经济今年稳步向好，股票市场震荡向上，从外资增配人民币资 产来看，今年对于人民币股票资产也是增持态势。美联储还是在延续降息周期，美元利率、汇率都有比 较明显的下行，也给了人民币升值方向的助力。 业内人士表示，尽管当前国际贸易环境复杂多变，但我国外贸仍保持稳中有进、量质齐升的态势，这一 基本面为人民币汇率提供了坚实的升值支撑。 2025年人民币外汇市场整体运行平稳，对美元汇率稳中有升，11月中旬以来，人民币升值加速，对美元 汇率连续突破关键点位，截至12月24日下午五点，在岸人民币对美元涨破7.02关口，离岸人民币对美元 涨破7.01关口。今年以来，在岸人民币对美元累计涨超3.8%，离岸人民币对美元累计涨超4.4%。 中金公司研究部首席宏观分析师 张文朗 ...

人民币汇率涨势不断，12月24日晚间，离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.0关口，最低报6.9999。 | 篇岸人民币(香港) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汇 USDCNH | | | | | | | | 7.0063 -0.0117 -0.1667% | | | | | | | | 12-24 20:35:21 | | | | | | | | 今开 | 7.0185 | 最高 | 7.0194 | 振幅 | | 0.2779% | | 卧底 | 7.0180 | ■▽11 | 6.9999 | 六帽 | | 0.0195 | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K 間K | | 月K | 曲 云 | | | 最新:7.0063 -0.0117 -0.1667% | | | | | | 分时成交 | | 7.0361 | | | | 0.26% | 20:31 | 7.0072 | | | | | | | 20:31 | 7.0071 | | | | | | | 20:31 | 7.0069 | | | | | | | 20:31 | ...

（1）人民币供需关系：年底是季节性结汇旺季，此外在出口保持韧性的背景下，今年银行代客结汇规 模始终处于较高水平，人民币单边升值趋势得到确认后，会进一步强化结汇需求，形成稳定买盘支撑； （2）美元指数影响：12月以来美元指数下跌1.5%，而人民币兑美元升值幅度约0.9%，可见近期人民币 被动升值的成分偏高； （3）中间价引导作用：简单考察中间价与即期汇率之间的差值，我们可以发现，今年一季度和贸易摩 擦后逆周期因子在人民币快速贬值期间适时发力，后续又适时减弱发力强度，而12月以来中间价已经持 续高于即期汇率，有意加力引导人民币减缓升值速度； （4）宏观预期因素则尚无明显数据支撑。 【导读】离岸人民币兑美元一度升破7.0关口，最低报6.9999 来源：中国基金报 记者 泰勒 人民币汇率涨势不断，12月24日晚间，离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.0关口，最低报6.9999。 华创证券分析了人民币汇率升值背后的原因。 人民币汇率涨势不断，12月24日晚间，离岸人民币兑美元一度升穿7.0关口，最低报6.9999。 华创证券分析了人民币汇率升值背后的原因。 （1）人民币供需关系：年底是季节性结汇旺季，此外在出口保持韧性的背景下 ...

【导读】 离岸人民币兑美元一度升破7.0关口，最低报6.9999 中国基金报记者 泰勒 （1）人民币供需关系：年底是季节性结汇旺季，此外在出口保持韧性的背景下，今年银行代 客结汇规模始终处于较高水平，人民币单边升值趋势得到确认后，会进一步强化结汇需求， 形成稳定买盘支撑； （2）美元指数影响：12月以来美元指数下跌1.5%，而人民币兑美元升值幅度约0.9%，可见 近期人民币被动升值的成分偏高； （3）中间价引导作用：简单考察中间价与即期汇率之间的差值，我们可以发现，今年一季度 和贸易摩擦后逆周期因子在人民币快速贬值期间适时发力，后续又适时减弱发力强度，而12 月以来中间价已经持续高于即期汇率，有意加力引导人民币减缓升值速度； （4）宏观预期因素则尚无明显数据支撑。 中信证券分析，人民币汇率处于升势，而从季节性规律来看，年底通常也是结汇的高峰，人 民币计价资产吸引力自然会有提升。另外，中央经济工作会议定调"保持人民币汇率在合理均 衡水平上的基本稳定"，意味着人民币汇率在涨速过快阶段，货币当局或有平抑波动的诉求， 对于货币政策而言，意味着宽松空间将有所打开，虽然12月降息预期阶段性落空，但2026年 降准降息靠前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Yuan (RMB) has entered a strong appreciation phase against the US Dollar, with significant increases in the exchange rate observed, particularly around the year-end period, driven by both external and internal factors [1][4][5]. Exchange Rate Performance - On December 24, the RMB central parity rate was significantly raised by 52 basis points to 7.0471, marking the highest level since September 30, 2024 [3][4]. - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates continued to appreciate, with the offshore rate reaching a high of 7.0013, just shy of the critical "7" level [1][3]. - Since November 21, the RMB has appreciated from around 7.11, with a cumulative increase of over 1200 basis points since mid-October [4][5]. Market Drivers - The weakening of the US Dollar Index has created a favorable external environment for RMB appreciation, while the resilience and attractiveness of the Chinese economy provide solid fundamental support [4][5]. - The market anticipates that the RMB may break the "7" level in the short term, but whether it can maintain this level remains to be seen, with potential for increased volatility in the exchange market [1][11]. Economic Context - The RMB's recent strength is attributed to a combination of reduced external pressures, enhanced internal economic resilience, and seasonal demand for currency exchange as the year-end approaches [5][6]. - China's trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in the first eleven months of 2025, contributing to the demand for RMB [5]. Corporate Responses - Over 30 A-share companies have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate risks associated with currency fluctuations, indicating a proactive approach to managing exchange rate impacts [7]. - Companies like Huabang Health are implementing forward foreign exchange contracts to stabilize profits against currency volatility [7]. Investment Implications - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to attract foreign investment, benefiting both the stock and bond markets, as RMB-denominated assets become more appealing [8][9]. - Investors are advised to consider the dual benefits of asset appreciation and currency gains, particularly for foreign institutional investors [8]. Regulatory Environment - The central government has reiterated its commitment to maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, aiming to prevent excessive fluctuations and ensure stability [10][11]. - The recent central economic work conference emphasized the importance of aligning the RMB exchange rate with economic fundamentals to avoid unilateral trends [10].

12月24日，人民币兑美元中间价报7.0471，上调52点。升值至2024年9月30日以来最高。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 人民币汇率升值势头望延续 "预计年内人民币有望偏强运行，汇率中枢或难突破7.0。"中信证券首席经济学家明明在研报中指出， 美联储12月降息预期或已充分定价，且美联储降息"靴子"落地后仍有待观察美国各项经济数据的实际表 现，美元指数的下行并非一帆风顺。考虑到年底结汇的季节性效应，不排除人民币汇率阶段性突破7.0 的概率。 明明表示，预计明年美元指数偏弱运行的趋势或延续，同时央行稳汇率政策张弛有度，增强人民币汇率 韧性。若国内政策协同发力，并带动经济内生动能逐步修复，则内外部因素有望形成较大的合力，进而 对人民币汇率中枢破7形成催化。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青称，在美联储12月降息前后，美元指数呈下行趋势，这带动了包括人民币 在内的非美货币普遍出现升值。此外，年底临近，企业结汇需求增加，也会带动人民币季节性走强。在 近期人民币持续走强的背景下，前期累积的结汇需求可能加速释放。 中金公司研报认为，由于当前人民币实际有效汇率处于低位以及中国制造业实力强大 ...