安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示："当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段时期。银行业在进 入'低利率、低息差'周期的同时，还面临宏观环境的不确定性加大，国际上主要经济体增长动能偏弱、 地缘政治冲突持续、贸易冲突和金融市场波动加剧，国内有效需求不足、经济回升向好基础还不稳固。 复杂多变的环境对上市银行的经营发展带来重大挑战。面对挑战，上市银行一方面做加法：多元开源拓 展非息收入，优化营收结构；多渠道补充资本，夯实服务实体经济实力；融入国家战略，深耕'五篇大 文章'，寻找业务发展新机遇。另一方面做减法：优化负债结构，降低负债成本；提升运营效率，控制 营业费用增长；加强风险管理，降低信用成本。" 具体来看，工农中建四家大型银行2024年末战略性新兴产业贷款余额合计超过人民币10万亿元，较上年 末增长22.62%；10家股份制银行2024年末对科技型企业贷款余额超人民币4.2万亿元，较上年末增长 21.93%。 北京商报讯（记者 宋亦桐）5月13日，安永发布《中国上市银行2024年回顾及未来展望》报告。该报告 深度分析了中国58家A+H股上市银行2024年度的经营业绩、资产质量、业务发展、经营模式等方面的 最新变化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bank wealth management market following the People's Bank of China's announcement of a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, leading to a downward trend in performance benchmarks for various wealth management products [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Adjustment of Performance Benchmarks - Several banks, including Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank and Tangshan Bank, have announced reductions in the performance benchmarks of their wealth management products, with some adjustments exceeding 100 basis points and lower limits falling below 2% [2][4]. - As of May 12, 150 bank wealth management products have adjusted their performance benchmarks since May 7, reflecting a rapid response to market interest rate changes [5][6]. Impact of Interest Rate Cuts - Following the interest rate cuts, many small and medium-sized banks have lowered their deposit rates, with some long-term fixed deposit rates dropping below 2%, indicating a shift into the "1% era" for most [6][7]. - The adjustments in deposit rates are expected to impact the performance of bank wealth management products, with analysts predicting further reductions in benchmarks [8]. Market Conditions and Challenges - The bank wealth management market, with a total scale of approximately 30 trillion yuan, is facing challenges in a "low interest rate, low spread, and high volatility" environment, leading to a decline in the scale of wealth management products by 0.81 trillion yuan in the first quarter [10][11]. - Analysts note that the decline in wealth management scale is seasonal, with significant growth typically occurring in the second and third quarters [10]. Structural Obstacles and Future Trends - There are structural obstacles to the further development of bank wealth management, including the low-risk nature of many products and the reliance on fixed-income assets, which limits active management opportunities [11][12]. - Long-term, wealth management subsidiaries are expected to diversify their product offerings and increase risk budgets to enhance returns, with a focus on high-yield assets and alternative strategies [12]. Fee Reduction Initiatives - In response to the adjustments in performance benchmarks, several wealth management companies have initiated fee reductions for their products to maintain customer relationships, with some companies announcing temporary fee cuts [13].

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the central bank have led to significant adjustments in the bank wealth management market, with many institutions lowering their performance benchmarks for wealth management products, reflecting the challenges posed by a low interest rate environment [1][3]. Group 1: Adjustments in Wealth Management Products - Several banks, including Dongguan Rural Commercial Bank and Tangshan Bank, have announced reductions in the performance benchmarks for their wealth management products, with some adjustments exceeding 100 basis points and rates falling below 2% [1][2]. - On May 12, Xinyin Wealth Management adjusted the performance benchmarks for multiple products, with the annualized return for one product dropping from 2.10%-4.05% to 1.50%-2.50% [2]. - A total of 150 bank wealth management products have adjusted their performance benchmarks since May 7, indicating a widespread response to market rate changes [2][3]. Group 2: Impact of Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China announced a 0.5 percentage point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point reduction in policy interest rates, prompting banks to lower deposit rates [3]. - Many small and medium-sized banks have responded quickly, with some long-term fixed deposit rates now falling below 2%, marking a shift into the "1.0 era" for deposit rates [3][4]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Trends - The bank wealth management market, with a total scale of approximately 29 trillion yuan, is facing pressure due to low interest rates, low spreads, and high volatility, leading to a reduction of 0.81 trillion yuan in the first quarter [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the decline in wealth management scale is seasonal, with significant growth typically occurring in the second and third quarters [6]. - The low-risk nature of many wealth management products has led to a structural challenge, with 95% of products being fixed-income, limiting the potential for active management and profitability [6][7]. Group 4: Fee Reductions in Response to Market Conditions - In response to the adjustments in performance benchmarks, several wealth management companies, including China Merchants Bank Wealth Management and Minsheng Wealth Management, have initiated a wave of fee reductions to maintain customer relationships [8]. - For instance, China Merchants Bank announced a reduction in the sales commission for one of its products from 0.20% to 0.10% per year, effective from May 20 [8].

5月13日，安永发布的《中国上市银行2024年回顾及未来展望》（以下简称《报告》）指出，银行业在 进入"低利率、低息差"周期的同时，复杂多变的宏观环境和地缘政治冲突给上市银行的经营发展带来重 大挑战，促使银行从规模导向转向价值创造。2024年，银行业通过深耕金融"五篇大文章"，在传统金融 服务之外寻求新的业务增长点。 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示："当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段时期。展望2025 年，中国经济将继续回升向好，上市银行也将面临更多机遇，但不确定性和挑战犹存。上市银行需紧跟 政策导向，在服务实体经济和国家战略中，加速转型，寻求业务发展新突破；在全方位服务内需中打造 营收增长点，在穿越经济周期、保持战略定力和拥抱行业变革中，谋划出一条契合自身的高质量发展之 路。" 净息差持续下降 不过，随着今年一季度债券等金融市场的波动，以及全球贸易摩擦居高不下，42家A股上市银行2025年 一季度净利润同比减少1.09%，营业收入同比减少1.72%；2025年一季度末资产总额较2024年末增长 3.94%；加权平均不良贷款率为1.23%，较2024年末下降0.01个百分点；拨备覆盖率为237.99% ...

安永5月13日发布《中国上市银行2024年回顾及未来展望》报告，分析了中国58家上市银行2024年度的经营业绩、资产质量、业务发展、经营模式等方面的 最新变化。报告称，上市银行息差持续收窄，经营环境不确定性加大，为了应对挑战，各银行降本增效，多措并举保持业绩稳定。 安永同步发布的《中国42家A股上市银行2025年一季度业绩概览》显示，42家A股上市银行2025年一季度净利润同比减少1.09%，营业收入同比减少1.72%； 2025年一季度末资产总额较2024年末增长3.94%；加权平均不良贷款率1.23%，较2024年末下降0.01个百分点；拨备覆盖率237.99%，较2024年末下降1.98个 百分点。总体来看，上市银行2025年一季度仍面临较大的经营压力。 受市场利率持续下行、存量按揭贷款利率下调和持续让利实体经济等因素影响，2024年上市银行净息差进一步收窄，平均净息差为1.52%，较上年下降17个 基点，已连续五年下降，最近三年净息差均低于2%。受净息差收窄的影响，上市银行2024年度净利息收入同比下降2.20%，连续2年下降。 安永大中华区金融服务首席合伙人忻怡表示，当前的低利率环境预计还将持续一段 ...

本来这个话题，昨天想聊的，但因为昨天市场又涨了，怕你们说我是马后炮，所以就赶在下跌的日子聊 吧。 年初，我们就强调 地区分散、股债均衡 的思路， 看好风险资产 ，目前跟投的组合，也都赚了点钱。 今天A股 80%左右的个股下跌，算是节后第一次下跌，要说利空的话，掰掰手指头，一共有三个。 其一，昨天下午，印度那边把关了三天的水坝，重新开了 闸，局势有所缓和，今天印度股市小跌1个 点，巴基斯坦股市则小幅反弹，A股 军工 板块的炒作也顺势熄了火，今天领跌全市场； 其二，是半导体两大龙头， 中芯和华虹 先后披露了一季报，这俩是A+H两地上市，所以不用赶在4月 30日前披露，两家的业绩都miss了，特别是对二季度及后续的指引不及预期，且一季报还显示国家 大 基金有减持的迹象 ，两者股价纷纷大跌，把整个芯片板块带坏了，包括两者在恒生科技的权重合计是 10个点左右，也使得今天恒科比恒生指数弱了不少； 其三，是 美/英 达成了贸易协议，除了我们之外，美国的贸易谈判，主要围绕20个左右的国家和地区， 如果英美达成协议，那么后续其他谈判对手会不会跟进，是否会对周末的中美会谈形成压力呢，这也是 一种可能。 当然，算上节前的2天，市场 ...

美国总统特朗普：我们喜欢良好的教育。我们喜欢低利率。 ...

美国总统特朗普宣称：我们正在（设法）结束通胀噩梦。 我们都喜欢低利率。 ...

日本央行行长植田和男：在整体通胀加速的情况下保持低利率，可能导致我们后续被迫快速加息。 ...

日本国债利率的长期下行趋势 01 ———— 宏 济 速持续 长期逻辑的相似性驱动低利率环境。 日本九十年代后的长期低利率的驱动因素，我们认为主要 有以下三点：1）名义GDP增速持续下行；2）实体经济贷款需求疲弱，金融机构配置国债需求 上升；3）日本央行货币政策持续宽松。这背后反映的则是全要素生产率的下降、人口老龄化趋 势的加剧、产业受到海外其他经济体的竞争和替代等与中国面临类似的长期宏观问题。 日本1998与2003年国债利率低位快速反弹的原因与异同。 日本10年国债利率在1998与2003年快 速反弹之前均创出历史新低。背后驱动因素除了基本面之外，主要还包括金融机构购买国债需 求增加以及货币政策的持续宽松。此后因为微观供需的原因，国债利率出现快速反弹。2003年 因为银行不良资产问题得到清理，国债利率出现阶段反转直至2007次贷危机爆发。 日本九十年代面临宏观环境的差异性。 日本九十年代银行体系的不良资产问题持续拖累日本宏 观经济及金融市场表现，是日本国债利率迭创新低的原因之一。除此之外，日本货币政策及汇 率调控政策、全球金融环境也与当前中国存在差异。考虑1.6%左右的10年国债收益率已一定程 度上透支长期 ...