（数据来源：wind资讯，截至20250725） 消息面上，上周债市调整，利差有所走阔，1-3Y回到历史3%以内分位数，但还是低位，分析认为继续调整的可能性依然存 在。普通商金债利差也有走阔，1-5Y20%以内分位数，二级和永续的信用利差也有所修复，目前3Y回到历史15%左右分位 数，性价比凸显。 | 数据日期 | | 2025-07-25 | | | | | | | 分位数起始日期 | | 2017-01-03 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 信用债到期收益率 | (%) | | | | | 历史分位数 | | | | 评级/期限 | 0.5Y | 1Y | 1.5Y | 2Y | 2.5Y | 3Y | 5Y | 0.5Y | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | 5Y | | 国开债 | 1.46 | 1.52 | 1.57 | 1.64 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.70 | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and a general decline in net asset values [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [2]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, prompting adjustments in net asset value precision, compared to 19 and 14 funds in June and May, respectively [2]. Group 2: Market Influences - The recent decline in the bond market is attributed to a recovery in risk appetite, with preventive redemptions from bank wealth management products contributing to market disturbances [2][4]. - The People's Bank of China's large liquidity injections have alleviated market tension, leading to a slight decline in the yield of the 10-year government bond, indicating a potential turning point in redemption trends [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that the bond market may maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with potential short-term recovery opportunities [4]. - Factors such as the end of the "anti-involution" trend and the recent monetary policy adjustments may provide a basis for a rebound in the bond market [4][5]. - The upcoming Politburo meeting in July is seen as a critical juncture that could influence market sentiment and performance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments since July, with a notable "seesaw" effect observed between the stock and bond markets, leading to large redemptions in bond funds and adjustments in net asset value precision [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 28, the average return of pure bond funds was -0.05%, with only 40% of products achieving positive returns [3]. - Nearly 40 bond funds have announced large redemptions since July, compared to 19 and 14 in June and May, respectively [3]. Group 2: Redemption and Adjustments - Major fund companies, including Guotai Junan, Huashang, and others, have raised the net asset value precision of their bond funds due to large redemptions [3]. - The adjustment in net asset value precision aims to protect the interests of fund holders from adverse effects caused by the precision of net asset value [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the medium term, with a focus on short-term recovery opportunities [5][7]. - Factors such as the improvement of deflation expectations and the easing of US-China tariff frictions are expected to exert pressure on the bond market [6][7]. - The potential for a rebound in the bond market exists, driven by the recent central bank liquidity injections and the anticipated stabilization of the economic environment [4][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent adjustments in the bond market, emphasizing that despite short-term fluctuations, bond funds remain a viable long-term investment option due to their inherent income-generating characteristics and historical performance trends [2][36]. Group 1: Reasons for Bond Market Adjustment - The bond market has experienced a notable adjustment due to multiple factors, including a shift in risk appetite driven by optimistic policy expectations and asset rotation effects [6][19]. - The recent rise in commodity prices and stock market strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 3600 points, has diluted the appeal of fixed-income products [7][19]. - A temporary tightening of liquidity conditions, highlighted by the central bank's net withdrawal of 119.5 billion yuan through reverse repos, has contributed to the upward pressure on bond yields [13][19]. Group 2: Historical Context and Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that the bond market has undergone several "stress tests," with each adjustment reflecting a revaluation of economic expectations, policy rhythms, and trading structures [21][28]. - The article outlines past significant adjustments, such as the "money shortage" in 2013 and the "debt disaster" in 2016, demonstrating that the bond market has consistently recovered from downturns [24][25][26]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while short-term volatility is expected, the long-term trend remains favorable for bond investments, characterized by a "bullish long, bearish short" pattern [29][34]. Group 3: Long-term Investment Perspective - The bond market's fundamental appeal lies in its fixed income nature, which provides a safety net against capital loss, allowing for potential recovery over time [38][39]. - Data shows that even during challenging periods, such as 2013 and 2018, bond indices have achieved positive returns, reinforcing their role as a defensive investment choice [44][46]. - The article concludes that despite short-term fluctuations, the bond market is positioned favorably for long-term investment, serving as a crucial component of diversified portfolios [51][50].

Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in both liquidity and net inflow, indicating strong market interest and performance despite recent adjustments in the bond market [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 28, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has accumulated a 10.68% increase over the past year [3]. - The latest scale of the ETF reached 14.453 billion yuan, marking a new high in the past year [3]. - The ETF's net value has increased by 10.72% over the past year, ranking 7th out of 414 in the index bond fund category, placing it in the top 1.69% [4]. Group 2: Liquidity and Trading Activity - The ETF experienced a turnover rate of 26.14% with a trading volume of 3.768 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past week, the ETF has seen an average daily trading volume of 4.283 billion yuan [3]. - The ETF has recorded continuous net inflows for eight days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.510 billion yuan, totaling 5.495 billion yuan in net inflows [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the ETF is 6.89%, with a relative benchmark drawdown of 1.28% [4]. - The ETF has a historical one-year profitability probability of 100% [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [5]. Group 4: Market Influences - Recent adjustments in the bond market are influenced by rising short-term funding rates and increasing inflation expectations, which have pushed up yields on government bonds with maturities of three years and above [3]. - The People's Bank of China has conducted a net liquidity injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repos, indicating a supportive monetary policy environment [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent rise in 10-year government bond yields is influenced by a combination of factors, including increased risk appetite in the equity market and rising commodity prices, challenging the underlying logic of "low demand, low inflation" that previously supported the bond market [1][2][6] - The 10-year government bond yield rose significantly, increasing nearly 8 basis points from 1.66% to 1.73% over the first four trading days of the week [1][6] - Despite the pressure on bond funds due to redemption, institutions remain optimistic about the market's future development, viewing the current risk in the bond market as manageable [1][7] Group 2 - The performance of bond funds varied, with secondary bond funds showing strong results; for instance, the highest weekly return was 5.92% for the Hongta Hongtu Shengshang One-Year A fund [2][4] - The redemption pressure on bond funds has increased significantly, with institutions expressing concerns about negative feedback from the market, although it is still considered a relatively controllable phase [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the recent adjustments in the bond market present a potential opportunity for investment, despite the volatility, as the overall market is not expected to turn bearish [6][7]

Group 1 - The report suggests that the bond market interest rates may have reached a peak after an unexpected adjustment, driven by three main factors: tight liquidity, rising inflation expectations due to "anti-involution," and the impact of a rising equity market on the bond market [4][7][11] - The analysis indicates that the tight liquidity is not a causal factor for the bond market adjustment but rather a synchronous relationship, with the central bank's recent operations showing an intention to alleviate the negative feedback loop [4][7][11] - The report anticipates that the inflation expectations driven by "anti-involution" will not persist for long, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unlikely to turn positive within the year, leading to a gradual calming of market expectations [4][7][11] Group 2 - The report highlights that the equity market is expected to continue rising, but this does not necessarily imply an increase in interest rates. The upward momentum in the equity market will likely return to expectations of improved national governance and technological leadership in economic transformation [8][11] - The report recommends gradual participation in liquid interest rate bonds, such as 10-year government bonds yielding over 1.7% and 30-year government bonds yielding over 1.95%, while advising caution with less liquid credit bonds due to potential downside risks [11][12] - The report notes that the bond market experienced a significant adjustment, with the 10-year government bond yield surpassing 1.7%, reflecting a broader trend of rising yields across various maturities [35][36][41]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments due to multiple factors, leading to pressure on bond fund net values, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Fund Performance - Over half of bond funds have reported negative performance since July, with notable declines in funds like Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Interest Rate Bond and Debon Ruiyu Interest Rate Bond, which saw net value drops exceeding 1.5% within the month [1]. - The number of bond funds with year-to-date net value losses has increased to 426 [1]. - Some bond fund holders have opted for redemptions amid these adjustments, raising concerns about the duration of the bond market's downturn [2][4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent bond market adjustment has been structurally significant, primarily affecting long-term interest rate bonds and certain credit bonds, with 30-year treasury bond ETFs experiencing declines over 1.6% in the past five days [2]. - Increased risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets has contributed to the pressure on the bond market, with a notable steepening of the yield curve [2][3]. - The recent adjustments have led to a significant outflow of funds from bond ETFs, with 656 million yuan exiting bond ETFs on July 24, interrupting a streak of net inflows [4][5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Future Outlook - Investor sentiment has been cautious, with some expressing fears of a repeat of the significant downturn seen at the end of 2022 [4][6]. - Despite the current volatility, some fund managers believe that the bond market is not entering a bearish phase and that adjustments may present new investment opportunities [7][8]. - The credit bond market is undergoing adjustments after a period of low spreads, and while caution is advised, there are still opportunities in the relative value of interest rate bonds [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market adjustment may have some short - term repair due to emerging positives, but in the long run, the probability of interest rates breaking through the lows is small, and the interest rate center is expected to fluctuate and rise [2][8]. - The bond market short - term adjustment is in place, with possible over - decline repair, but the downward amplitude may be limited, and heavy - position participation is not recommended. Strategies suggest being cautious in duration, reducing annual return expectations, and seizing short - term trading opportunities [2][30]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Adjustment Situation - This week, the bond market sentiment was suppressed by the strong performance of equities and commodities, and the yield of each maturity generally increased. As of July 25, the 10Y Treasury yield rose 6.72BP to 1.73% compared with July 18, and the 30Y Treasury yield reached 1.97%, with the 10Y - 1Y spread widening [5]. Factors Affecting the Bond Market Funding Aspect - The central bank began large - scale injections at the end of the month, showing an obvious attitude of care. On Thursday, the suddenly tightened funding became the "last straw" for the bond market, but on Friday, the central bank's operations led to a rapid shift to a loose funding situation, with a net injection of 8018 billion yuan [2][8]. Asset - Liability Aspect - The reduction of the insurance预定利率 is a short - term positive for the bond market, but it also has two - sided effects. It may lead to a reduction in the adjustment range of the bond market, but it may also cause a loss of insurance liability - side funds [2][10]. Institutional Behavior Aspect - Insurance has changed from a stable configuration strategy to a trading mindset. The weekly average net purchase scale in July decreased to 44.8 billion yuan, lower than that from February to March [2][15]. - During the bond market's weak adjustment this week, the main selling forces were funds and securities companies, while rural commercial banks increased their positions. Funds further reduced their duration, and the 10 - day average of the net purchase duration of funds has dropped to a relatively low historical quantile level [16]. Key Psychological Point and Technical Analysis - 1.75% is a key psychological point in the market, and the probability of a short - term rapid break to 1.80% is low [22]. - Technically, the bearish force has increased marginally, but short - term technical indicators show over - decline rebound signals. There may be over - decline trading opportunities next week, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level [23]. Long - Term Impact of Re - inflation Trading - The re - inflation trading caused by anti - involution is still in the initial stage, so its impact on the bond market is limited [24][27].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced significant adjustments recently, leading to a majority of bond funds reporting negative performance, particularly those heavily invested in long-term interest rate bonds [2][4][10]. Summary by Sections Performance of Bond Funds - In July, over half of bond funds reported negative performance, with notable declines in funds like Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Interest Rate Bond and Debon Ruiyu Interest Rate Bond, which saw net value declines exceeding 1.5% [2][10]. - The number of bond funds with year-to-date net value losses has increased to 426 [2]. Investor Reactions - Due to the pressure on net values, some bond fund holders have opted to redeem their investments, raising concerns about when the current bond market adjustment will stabilize [3][9]. - Investors have expressed worries about potential large-scale withdrawals similar to those seen at the end of 2022, when the long-term pure bond fund index experienced over 1% decline [9]. Market Dynamics - The recent bond market adjustment has been characterized by structural changes, with long-term interest rate bonds and certain credit bonds experiencing the most significant declines [6][12]. - The rise in risk appetite due to the performance of stocks and commodities has put additional pressure on the bond market [7][8]. Fund Flows and ETF Activity - On July 24, there was a net outflow of 656 million yuan from bond ETFs, breaking a streak of continuous net inflows [10][11]. - The bond ETF market has seen significant growth, with the total scale surpassing 500 billion yuan for the first time in July [10]. Future Outlook - Despite the current volatility, some analysts believe that the bond market is not at a turning point towards bearish trends and that adjustments present opportunities for investment [15][16]. - The internal logic supporting a bullish outlook for bonds remains strong, driven by weakening financing demand and debt leverage, alongside a potential for monetary policy easing [16].