Group 1: Market Liquidity and Trends - In early September, the scale of public market maturities increased significantly, with the weekly reverse repurchase maturity reaching a new high for the year [1] - Analysts expect that fiscal spending and central bank support will offset seasonal disturbances, maintaining overall liquidity at a reasonable level [1] - Government bond issuance and fiscal fund allocation are projected to inject approximately 190 billion yuan into the banking system, while regular fiscal revenue is expected to provide over 1.1 trillion yuan in support [1] Group 2: Financial Leasing Industry - By the end of 2024, the balance of direct leasing assets for financial leasing companies is expected to reach 640.54 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 52.73% [2] - The total number of financial leasing companies is projected to be 67, with total assets and leasing assets reaching 4.58 trillion yuan and 4.38 trillion yuan, respectively, both showing year-on-year growth of 9.65% and 10.24% [2] Group 3: Company Bond ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the least market discount in the past week at 2 basis points, with a net inflow of 52 million yuan [5] - The latest scale of the company bond ETF reached 22.568 billion yuan, marking a new high in nearly a year [6] - The number of shares for the company bond ETF reached 213 million, the highest in nearly three months [7] Group 4: Fund Flows and Returns - The company bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows over the past four days, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 159 million yuan, totaling 201 million yuan [8] - The company bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 13.60% over the past five years, with a maximum monthly return of 1.22% since inception [8] - The management fee rate for the company bond ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee rate is 0.05% [9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market issues are primarily endogenous, and the sustainability of the stock market is contingent on the resolution of bond market bubbles [1] Group 1: Bond Market Analysis - The progress of bond bubble resolution can be observed through the R007-10Y yield spread, which needs to normalize for bond value to recover [1] - The current R007-10Y yield spread is approaching a normal state, with a moving average level of 24 basis points, compared to a normal level of approximately 29 basis points observed from January to November last year [1] - The potential for yield correction offers limited upward adjustment space of about 5 basis points, suggesting a reasonable 10Y government bond yield at around 1.78% [1] Group 2: ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has shown the best performance in controlling drawdowns during the recent bond market adjustment, with minimal trading discounts and stable net value [1] - A detailed table of various bond ETFs indicates their recent performance, with the Ping An Company Bond ETF having a scale of 22.353 billion and a year-to-date return of -0.119% [1] - Other ETFs listed show varying degrees of performance, with some experiencing larger drawdowns and trading discounts compared to the Ping An ETF [1]

Core Insights - The most challenging period for the bond market may have passed, as indicated by significant trading volume in the A-share market, reaching 2.81 trillion, marking the third-highest daily trading volume in history [1] - The impact of the stock market on the bond market's capital is limited, with an estimated 2 trillion flowing into the stock market this bull run, which is unlikely to have a decisive effect on the bond market [1] - Redemption pressures exist, but the likelihood of negative feedback is low due to increased liquidity in bank wealth management products, which have a higher proportion of liquid assets [1] Market Analysis - The recent surge in A-share trading volume suggests a potential slowdown in subsequent price increases, with a possibility of a short-term correction [1] - Historical comparisons show that the current adjustment in the bond market is less severe than previous adjustments in 2024 and early 2025 [1] - The performance of various bond ETFs indicates that the Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best control over drawdown, providing stability for investors during this challenging period [1] ETF Performance Summary - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has a scale of 22.353 billion, with a recent weekly average discount of -0.06% and a year-to-date return of 0.84% [1] - Other notable ETFs include the Hai Fu Tong Shanghai City Investment Bond ETF (511220) with a scale of 24.511 billion and a year-to-date return of 1.05%, and the Southern Shanghai Benchmark Market Company Bond ETF (511070) with a scale of 21.127 billion and a year-to-date return of 0.63% [1] - The overall performance of these ETFs reflects varying levels of risk and return, with the Ping An ETF showing the most resilience during the current market adjustment [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is under phased pressure, and potential negative feedback effects should be vigilant. The recent bond market has been under continuous pressure, mainly disturbed by three factors: the strengthening of M1 year - on - year data, the significant recovery of market risk appetite, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation. The stock - bond cost - performance index shows that the bond allocation value is accumulating but has not reached the threshold for asset re - allocation. In the short term, the strong performance of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market, and investors are advised to maintain a defensive stance and a short - duration strategy [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Weekly Review - From August 18th to 22nd, the yields of treasury bonds fluctuated upwards, and the stock - bond seesaw effect dominated the bond market trend. The yields of 1 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 0.42bp and 3.53bp respectively, closing at 1.3707% and 1.7818%. The bond market was affected by factors such as tax payment, LPR quotes, and equity market trends during the week [2][10]. 3.2 Bond Market Data Tracking 3.2.1 Funding Situation - From August 18th to 22nd, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 12,652.00 billion yuan. The central bank conducted 20,770.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases and had 7,118.00 billion yuan in maturities. The funding rates first increased and then decreased. R001, DR001, R007, and DR007 all increased compared to the previous week, and the funding situation remained in a tight balance. The central bank is expected to continue to maintain liquidity injection next week, and the funding rate center may remain flat [4][23]. 3.2.2 Supply Side - From August 18th to 22nd, the total issuance volume of interest - rate bonds increased, and the net financing amount increased. The total issuance scale of interest - rate bonds was 13,099.50 billion yuan, an increase of 1,335.28 billion yuan from the previous week. The government bond issuance scale decreased, and the net financing amount decreased. The issuance scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit decreased, and the net financing amount decreased [39][42]. 3.3 Next Week's Outlook and Strategy 3.3.1 Next Week's Outlook - The supply pressure of treasury bonds will ease next week. There are no treasury bond issuance plans, and the planned issuance of local government bonds is 3,515.97 billion yuan. Facing the cross - month disturbance and large - scale reverse repurchase maturity pressure, the central bank is expected to continue to maintain a stance of protecting liquidity, and the funding rate center may remain flat [3][60]. 3.3.2 Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is under phased pressure, and potential negative feedback effects should be vigilant. The recent bond market has been under pressure due to factors such as the strengthening of M1 data, the recovery of market risk appetite, and policy expectations. The stock - bond cost - performance index shows that the bond allocation value is accumulating. In the short term, the strong performance of the equity market is the biggest risk for the bond market. Investors are advised to maintain a defensive stance and a short - duration strategy [5]. 3.4 Global Major Assets - U.S. Treasury yields generally declined. As of August 22, 2025, the yields of 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y U.S. Treasuries decreased compared to August 15. The U.S. dollar index declined, and the central parity rate of the U.S. dollar against the RMB decreased slightly. Gold, silver, and crude oil prices generally rose [69][70].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the bond market have drawn investor attention, particularly towards the 5Y National Development Bank active bonds, which exhibit significant volatility and a potential slight bearish trend in the market [1] Bond Market Analysis - The current IRR of government bond futures is low, indicating that futures prices are relatively cheap overall [1] - Long-term contracts have experienced more adjustments due to market expectations and VAT-related factors [1] ETF Performance - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in terms of controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least market discount in the past week and a relatively stable net value [1] - The table provided shows various ETFs, their scale in billions, recent performance metrics, and drawdown statistics, highlighting the performance of different bond ETFs [1]

Group 1 - The funding situation during the tax period exceeded expectations, attributed to the central bank's restrained reverse repo operations and some funds flowing into the stock market, leading to a funding gap [1] - The current 7-day OMO balance is 20,770 billion, significantly exceeding the seasonal average of 4,316 billion over the past four years [1] - The central bank has announced a net MLF injection of 300 billion, indicating a clear intention to support the market, with expectations of continued large-scale OMO operations [1] - The current 1-year deposit certificate rate stands at 1.67% [1] Group 2 - The Ping An Company Bond ETF (511030) has the best performance in controlling drawdown during the recent bond market adjustment, with the least market discount in the past week and a relatively stable net value [2] - The bond market adjustment began on August 8, 2025, and the table provided shows various ETFs with their respective performance metrics [2] - The scale of the Ping An Company Bond ETF is 22.353 billion, with a recent weekly average discount of -0.06% and a year-to-date performance of 0.84 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The adjustment environment of this round of the bond market is different from the past. The redemption pressure may stop at the fund level, and the situation of comprehensive and substantial supplementary decline in the bond market and significant redemption of wealth management products by residents may not occur [4][7]. - The redemption pressure caused by the decline of the bond market this time is mostly concentrated in the fund level. Institutions reduce bond positions and redeem funds, but the pressure may stop at institutional redemptions and not spread to residents redeeming wealth management products [15]. - The "right - hand side" signal of this round of the bond market may appear earlier than expected. Investors are advised to pay attention to central bank operations and interest rate trends [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint - During the recent bond market adjustment, investors have different views on bond investment. One view is that the bond market decline will end after short - term and credit bonds fully make up for the decline or after residents panic - redeem wealth management products. However, the report believes that the adjustment environment is different this time, and the redemption pressure may stop at the fund level [4][7]. - There are three reasons: 1) During this bond adjustment, funds are continuously loose, and the central bank cares about the capital market. The adjustment is not caused by capital shortage, and the risk of supplementary decline in bonds is controllable, which has less impact on wealth management products held by residents [8]. 2) This bond adjustment is in the stage of accelerating decline in broad - spectrum interest rates, and investors have a more adequate expectation of the decline in investment returns and are more likely to accept the decline in wealth management yields, making it less likely for negative feedback to occur [10]. 3) Wealth management products used the smoothing valuation method in 2024, which stabilized the scale and helped the stable liability side of wealth management [13]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market 2.1 Domestic August PMI to be Announced - China will announce August PMI, the US will announce July core PCE and August University of Michigan consumer confidence index, and the ECB will announce the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting [17]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Volume Declines - This week, the issuance of local bonds continues at a high level, and there is no issuance plan for national bonds at the end of the month. It is expected that a total of 5116 billion yuan of interest - bearing bonds will be issued, falling to a relatively low level in the same period. Among them, there is no issuance plan for national bonds, 81 local bonds are planned to be issued with a scale of 3516 billion yuan, and the actual issuance scale of policy - financial bonds is expected to be about 1600 billion yuan [19]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.1 Net Reverse Repurchase Operation Injection of 1.37 Trillion - The central bank's open - market operation has a net injection of more than one trillion. The reverse repurchase injection scale first rises and then falls, with a total injection of 2077 billion yuan and a net injection of 1365.2 billion yuan. After adding the net withdrawal of treasury fixed - term deposits, the open - market operation has a net injection of 1265.2 billion yuan. The capital price first rises and then falls. The repurchase trading volume gradually rises to 7.38 trillion, and the overnight ratio average falls to around 88%. The capital interest rate first rises and then falls [22][23]. - The issuance scale of certificates of deposit declines, and the primary and secondary prices both rise. From August 18th to August 24th, the issuance scale is 549.2 billion yuan, the maturity scale is 794.7 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is - 245.5 billion yuan. The primary and secondary interest rates of certificates of deposit both rise [29]. 3.2 Weak Liability - Side Stability of Fixed - Income Asset Management Products - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through upwards again, and interest rates were under pressure. The liability - side stability of fixed - income asset management products was weak, facing greater redemption pressure. On Friday, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3800 points, and interest rates rose significantly again. On August 22nd, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year national bonds all increased compared with the previous week, with the 3 - year national bond rising the most, up 9.7bp [41]. 4. High - Frequency Data - On the production side, the operating rates are differentiated. The blast furnace operating rate and petroleum asphalt operating rate decline, while the semi - steel tire operating rate and PTA operating rate rise. The year - on - year decline in the average daily crude steel output in early August narrows [49]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales have rebounded to a relatively high level. The year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area is still significantly negative. The export indices SCFI and CCFI have decreased by 3.1% and 1.5% respectively [49]. - On the price side, the crude oil price rises, the copper and aluminum prices are differentiated, and the coal prices are also differentiated. In the middle - stream, the building materials composite price index decreases by 1.1%, the cement index increases by 1.8%, and the glass index decreases by 3.1%. The output of rebar decreases, the inventory rapidly rises to 4.33 million tons, and the futures price decreases by 2.1%. In the downstream consumer sector, the prices of vegetables, fruits, and pork change by 1.9%, - 1.3%, and 0.2% respectively [50].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market has experienced a significant rally since August, while bond funds have struggled due to rising long-term bond yields and tightening liquidity conditions [1][4]. Group 1: Stock Market Performance - Since August 4, the A-share market has been on an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking a nearly ten-year high and the total market capitalization reaching a historical record [1]. - Trading activity in the A-share market has been robust, with daily transaction volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August 13 [2]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has faced a sharp decline, particularly after August 7, with the 30-year government bond futures experiencing a significant drop of 1.33% on August 18 [2]. - As of August 20, over 660 bond funds reported negative returns for the month, with 86 funds experiencing net value losses exceeding 1% [4]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose from a low of approximately 1.95% to over 2.1%, while the 10-year yield increased from around 1.68% to nearly 1.79% [6]. Group 3: Fund Performance and Investor Behavior - On August 18, ten bond funds saw daily net value declines exceeding 1%, with the maximum drop reaching 1.63% [4]. - The recent strong performance of the stock market has intensified the negative correlation between stocks and bonds, leading many bond fund investors to shift towards equities [4][5]. - Institutional behavior has diverged, with funds and brokerages being net sellers of long-duration bonds, while large banks and insurance companies have increased their allocation to various durations of government bonds [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the most severe adjustments in the bond market may have ended, full stabilization will depend on signals of easing liquidity or a cooling of stock market sentiment [5]. - Recommendations for bond fund investors include shortening duration to mitigate volatility and considering "fixed income plus" funds to enhance yield flexibility and reduce single-asset risk [5].

ETF Industry News - The three major indices showed mixed results today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - Several agricultural ETFs saw gains, including the Agricultural 50 ETF (516810.SH) which rose by 1.78%, and the Agricultural 50 ETF (159827.SZ) which increased by 1.69% [1] - The power equipment sector experienced declines, with the Kinetic New Energy ETF (588830.SH) dropping by 2.08% and the Energy Storage Battery ETF (159566.SZ) falling by 2.02% [1] Market Overview - China's ETF market has surpassed Japan, reaching an asset management scale of $681 billion in July, compared to Japan's $668 billion, making it the largest ETF market in Asia [2] - The increase in ETF products is supported by accelerated product approvals and strong funding supply, leading to greater recognition among retail investors for long-term, low-cost, and liquid ETF products [2] Bond Market Performance - The bond market is under pressure due to high-risk appetite, with long-term government bonds adjusting continuously, resulting in widespread declines in bond fund net values [3] - Data shows that nearly 100 bond funds have experienced a performance drop of over 1% since August, with more than 70% of pure bond funds reporting losses in August [3] Index Performance - On August 21, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3771.1 points, with a daily high of 3787.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index closed at 11919.76 points and 2595.47 points, respectively [4] - The top-performing sectors today included agriculture, oil and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with daily gains of 1.5%, 1.39%, and 0.98% respectively [6] ETF Market Performance - The average performance of various ETF categories indicates that strategy ETFs performed the best with an average increase of 0.47%, while cross-border ETFs had the worst performance with an average decline of 0.26% [9] - The top five performing ETFs today included the Chemical Industry ETF (516570.SH) with a gain of 1.99%, the China A50 ETF (560820.SH) with an increase of 1.83%, and the Agricultural 50 ETF (516810.SH) rising by 1.78% [11] Trading Volume - The top three ETFs by trading volume today were the A500 ETF (512050.SH) with a trading volume of 5.691 billion yuan, the Kinetic 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 5.501 billion yuan, and the A500 ETF Huatai (563360.SH) with 5.081 billion yuan [14]

Group 1 - The fiscal financing side is believed to have peaked year-on-year, while the expenditure side may peak in September-October [1] - There are signs of increased activity in quasi-fiscal measures, with significant growth in policy bond financing in August, following the government's indication of 500 billion yuan in new policy development financial tools for this year [1] - Macro liquidity indicators suggest that social financing may have peaked, and M1 could peak around October [1] Group 2 - Micro liquidity is currently influenced by high margin trading and consumer credit subsidies, leading to unpredictable market conditions [1] - In this environment, investing in high-quality or undervalued banks is considered appropriate, emphasizing the importance of focusing on such opportunities [1] - The recent adjustment in the bond market has seen Ping An's corporate bond ETF (511030) rank first in terms of controlled drawdown, indicating relative stability and manageable risk [1] Group 3 - A detailed table of various ETFs is provided, showing their scale, recent performance, and other metrics, highlighting the performance of different bond ETFs in the market [1] - The data includes specific figures such as the scale of ETFs in billions, recent weekly performance percentages, and one-year performance metrics, which can be useful for investors [1]