Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the valuation of global stock indices, U.S. Treasury indices, and the performance of various markets, highlighting the recent trends in stock markets and the contrasting behavior of gold prices. Group 1: Global Stock Market Performance - The global stock market has continued to rise, recovering from a short-term drop in early April, with global indices returning to around 3.5 stars after previously falling to 4.1-4.2 stars [1] - U.S., European, and Asian stocks have generally increased, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rising over 2% this week, recovering losses from the tariff crisis [1] - The Hang Seng Index has outperformed the A-share large-cap index by 20% since the beginning of the year, with the healthcare and technology sectors in Hong Kong also outperforming their A-share counterparts by 20% [1] Group 2: Gold Market Trends - Despite the rise in global stock markets, gold has experienced a downturn, correcting approximately 9% since its peak in early April [1] - The strength of the U.S. dollar and its impact on real interest rates have been significant factors influencing gold prices, with a strong dollar generally being unfavorable for gold [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Products - The article mentions the availability of global stock index funds in overseas markets, which total over a trillion dollars, but notes the lack of such funds in mainland China [8] - A "Global Index Advisory Portfolio" has been introduced, which diversifies investments across U.S., UK, Hong Kong, and A-share indices to track global stock market performance [9] - The article also highlights the release of a new edition of "The Long-Term Investment Guide," which emphasizes the importance of stock assets for wealth accumulation over the long term [11][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes that global major asset classes have shown significant recovery, particularly risk assets such as equities, commodities, and alternatives, following positive developments in US-China trade talks [4][10] - The "Global Barbell Strategy" is proposed as the optimal response for asset allocation in the context of a changing investment paradigm, focusing on three tactical opportunities for aggressive buying: improved win rates due to easing trade tensions, attractive valuations of Chinese assets, and liquidity issues leading to opportunities [5][13] - The article highlights that the strategic long-term view is influenced by three underlying logics: the intensification of de-globalization, misalignment of debt cycles, and trends in the AI industry, reinforcing the need for an all-weather strategy to balance risks and returns [5][13] Group 2 - Key financial indicators from May 5 to May 13 show a convergence in the SOFR-OIS spread, indicating a slight easing of US dollar liquidity, and an increase in the US financial conditions index, reflecting improved overall financial conditions [6][10] - The article provides a calendar of important global economic data releases and events from May 19 to June 1, including China's fixed asset investment and retail sales, as well as US initial jobless claims and GDP estimates [16] - The focus charts track global major asset dynamics, showing significant movements in various asset classes and their correlations, which are essential for understanding market trends and making informed investment decisions [17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current investment landscape, contrasting the volatility in the U.S. stock market with the relatively stable A-share market, suggesting that investors should adopt long-term strategies like "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" to navigate market uncertainties [4][5]. Group 1: Timed Dollar-Cost Averaging - The concept of "timed dollar-cost averaging" is a localized adaptation of Benjamin Graham's "dollar-cost averaging," focusing on investing in quality assets with long-term appreciation potential [7][9]. - Quality assets are defined by their long-term value growth expectations and clear valuation benchmarks, with examples including high-dividend stocks and reasonably priced growth stocks [9][10]. - The banking sector in the A-share market is highlighted as a suitable investment direction due to its long-term intrinsic value and stable valuation benchmarks [10][13]. Group 2: Diversified Asset Allocation - Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy" emphasizes the importance of asset allocation based on macroeconomic indicators, categorizing economic conditions into four states and recommending asset classes that perform well in each [16][20]. - The strategy involves creating sub-portfolios for each economic state and then combining them into a larger portfolio, ensuring equal risk contribution from each sub-portfolio [20][21]. - In the A-share market, high-dividend stocks can be seen as having bond-like characteristics, while cyclical stocks are linked to commodity prices, allowing investors to find suitable targets across different economic phases [21][22]. Group 3: Conclusion - Both "timed dollar-cost averaging" and "diversified asset allocation" emphasize the importance of long-term asset preservation and growth, while minimizing short-term speculative trading [31][32]. - The article advocates for simple, clear, and effective investment strategies that can help ordinary investors navigate the complexities of market cycles [32][33].

以下文章来源于楚团长聊聊天 ，作者楚团长 楚团长聊聊天 . 春来不是赚钱天，夏日炎炎正好眠。秋来蚊虫冬又冷，揣好钱包待明年。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 楚团长扯投资 来源：雪球 说来也是好笑 ， 特朗普2021年创立Truth Social （ 真实社交 ） 平台的初衷 ， 是因为其他主流平台承受 不住他的 " 胡言乱语 " ， 选择对其账号进行封禁 。 但当站在关税阴云波澜诡谲的当下 ， 本该贡献 " 真 相 " 的Truth Social平台 ， 反而在特朗普的高强度观点输出下 ， 批量制造了大量真伪难辨 、 朝令夕改的 矛盾内容 …… 如何应对特朗普对 " 真实Truth " 一词的重新解构 ？ 至少美股尚未找到答案 ， 否则美股各大权重指数也不 会在最近两周 ， 创出动辄±10%的宽幅波动 。 反观A股 ， 由于宏观政策路径相对清晰 ， 同时中央汇金等 " 类平准基金 " 平滑市场波动的意愿较为强烈 ， 所以A股投资者最近两周并未遭遇惊涛骇浪式的高波动冲击 ， 反而可以在流动性充裕的背景下 ， 寻找一 些可能的交易性机会 ...

者司机"戴"你上车 投资新范式 把脉全球资产配置 | 广发证券发展研究中心董事总经理 戴康 CFA 首席资产研究官 新浪财经金麒麟白金分析师 欢迎关注微信公众会 包揽：2014-2023年新财富最佳分析师、金牛奖、 戴康的策略世界 水晶球等所有重要奖项 著书《策略投资:从方法论到进化论》 Choice数据 总量视野 · 策略 关税冲击下的 策略再平衡 荣获京东图书2023百大好书 关税冲击下的策略再平衡 直播时间：4月23日 周三 15：00 直播看点： 1、关税冲击：新范式下的全球秩序重建 2、中国应对：反脆弱政策与策略博弈 3、资产配置：优化全天候策略 4、总结：核心策略与尾部风险 ...

2020 年春，李迅雷给唐军派发了一个艰巨的课题：预测疫情拐点。 作为非流行病学专业人员，时任中泰证券金工首席的唐军有些困惑，这与投资有什么直接联系？但又很巧合， 大学期间的 唐军参加数学建模比赛 前 曾拿 2003 年非典练手，传染病传播模型 还有印象 。 唐军根据 封锁前 武汉迁出 到各省的 人数和 之后 各省上报 的确诊 人数，反推 当时 武汉感染人群数量，再根据疫情起始时间反推传播系数， 这一数据处理 上产生的效果远超模型精度本身。 最终经过测算，唐军预测对了感染高峰到来的时间。 有了经验后，美国疫情开始扩散，李迅雷又派发了一个艰巨的课题：美国能不能控住疫情？ 这一次，唐军意识到自己研究的课题，并不是与投资风马牛不相及。唐军知道人员流动性降到平时 30% 才能稳住疫情不扩散，「美国根本降不到，一定会 严重挤兑，即使医疗资源翻一倍也会挤兑。」 随后，唐军提示了做空原油，那年美油期货价格首次跌到负数。 这两次研究成果收录在李迅雷公众号，至今还能搜索到。三年后，唐军担任中泰资管组合投资部首席投资经理 ， 并开始管理公募 FOF 产品 ，李迅雷的指 导和这些与投资并不直接关联的研究，拓宽了他宏观的视野，潜移默 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the Permanent Portfolio strategy, which aims to mitigate risks and achieve long-term growth by diversifying across four asset classes: stocks, bonds, gold, and cash, each allocated 25% [3][5][9]. Group 1: Permanent Portfolio Strategy - The Permanent Portfolio consists of four asset classes: stocks (25%), gold (25%), cash (25%), and bonds (25%), designed to respond to different economic cycles [9][10]. - The strategy is not about maximizing returns but about avoiding significant losses and controlling volatility, adhering to the principle of "staying the course" through economic fluctuations [11][12]. - The portfolio is built without market timing, with an initial allocation made at the inception of the strategy, and adjustments are made only when asset allocations deviate significantly from the target [12][14]. Group 2: Historical Performance - Historical data shows that from 1971 to 2011, the Permanent Portfolio achieved an annualized return of 9.5%, slightly below that of stocks but with much lower volatility [21][22]. - A more recent analysis from January 2008 to March 2025 indicates that the Permanent Portfolio had a long-term annualized return of 6.2%, compared to 10.13% for the S&P 500 ETF, with a significantly lower maximum drawdown of -15.92% [25][26][29]. Group 3: Application in A-shares - The article discusses the feasibility of applying the Permanent Portfolio strategy in the A-share market, suggesting suitable ETFs for each asset class, including the CSI 300 ETF and 10-year government bond ETF [31][32]. - A backtest from August 2017 to the present shows that the A-share Permanent Portfolio achieved a cumulative return of 56.9%, with an annualized return of approximately 6.01%, outperforming the CSI 300 index [35][36]. Group 4: Portfolio Optimization - Recommendations for optimizing the portfolio include diversifying stock holdings with low-fee index funds, considering a mix of 10-year and 30-year bonds, and selecting lower-fee gold products or a portion of physical gold [38][39].

以下文章来源于六亿居士 ，作者六亿居士 六亿居士 . 雪球2024年度十大影响力用户。每周发布指数估值表，坚持指数基金(ETF)低估定投，分享指数基金基础分析，让 我们：买入有依，持有有底，卖出有据。 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：六亿居士 永久投资组合 ： 以不变应万变 永久投资组合的核心策略是采用不同的大类资产 ， 以应对经济周期中的不同阶段 ， 从而实现风险的对冲与 长期向上的目的 。 下面这张图 ， 相信大家并不陌生 ： 来源：雪球 随着经验逐步丰富 ， 我们会逐步了解到一些知名的投资策略组合 。 比如常见的 股债配比 模型 、 达利欧 倡导的 全天候策略 、 大卫 · 斯文森提出的 耶鲁模型 以及哈利 · 布朗提出的 —— 永久投资组合 。 在诸多知名的投资策略中 ， 上述四个体系是我们学习组建投资组合的常见范本 。 虽然从细节上存在诸多差 异 ， 但这类策略的目的均不是追求极致的收益 ， 而是避免陷入不可挽回的损失 。 市场具有不确定性 ， 我们无法避开这个基本前提 。 因此 ， 在投资这场马拉松中 ， 活得久远比跑得快更 ...

Core Viewpoints - The necessity to enhance domestic demand policies to counteract the potential impacts of slowing external demand, thereby solidifying the recovery of domestic demand since the first quarter [1][4] - The market consensus on a clear mainline for policy response is still awaited, indicating that the timing for a more aggressive market approach is not yet ripe [1][7] Economic Performance - China's GDP growth in the first quarter exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [2][4] - Retail sales grew by 4.6%, and fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% [2] - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%, and per capita disposable income rose to 12,179 yuan, reflecting a nominal increase of 5.5% [2] Trade and External Factors - The trade surplus contributed 2.2 percentage points to the nominal GDP growth in the first quarter, up from 1.9 percentage points in the previous quarter [4] - A decline in container bookings to the U.S. by 67% in the first week of April indicates potential headwinds for exports in the second quarter [4] Investment Strategies - Recommendations to maintain a defensive investment strategy in light of ongoing global uncertainties, with a focus on safe assets such as gold and government bonds [5][21] - Emphasis on sectors benefiting from domestic demand and those that have been undervalued due to market sentiment, particularly in the context of "China Special Valuation" and "Science and Technology Valuation" [6][10] Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain volatile, with a need for further observation of policy impacts before a clear bullish trend can be established [7][19] - The potential for a gradual decrease in funding rates as macroeconomic stimulus measures are anticipated to be implemented [17]

戴康 CFA 广发证券发展研究中心 董事总经理（MD）、首席资产研究官 邮箱：daikang@gf.com.cn 报告摘要 ● 全球大类资产表现与宏观交易主线 ： （4.7-4.16），全球大类资产表现分化，黄金>发达>债券>新兴。（4.2- 4.4），对等关税落地当周，避险&风险资产普跌。（4.7-4.16），对等关税对于全球资产冲击的程度有所缓和， 但全球大类资产主线仍然围绕"避险交易"：避险资产的代表黄金已经率先企稳并大幅领涨；风险资产中，发达国 家和工业金属有所回补，而新兴市场表现仍偏弱。 ● 大类资产配置——新投资范式下，"全球杠铃策略"是反脆弱时代嬗变下全球资产配置的最佳应对。 我们在 25.4.9 《谋定而后动，做多的三个时机》 中提示：事件冲击的大波动中，全力做多的时机通常有三个：（1）胜 率提升—本轮要看到贸易摩擦缓和（跟踪观察）；（2）估值极便宜（中国资产不贵）；（3）流动性问题导致筹 码出清（可以是阶段性）带来机会。短期维持全球资产宜保持避险策略（中债瑞郎黄金）的判断，仍然建议以全 天候策略框架构建资产组合。中长期而言，关税强化了新范式的三大底层逻辑（逆全球化加剧、债务周期错位、 AI产 ...