Core Concept - The article discusses Ray Dalio's "All Weather Strategy," which aims to achieve stable returns in various market conditions, likening it to being well-equipped for unpredictable weather during a hike [1][3]. Group 1: All Weather Strategy Principles - The core idea of the All Weather Strategy is to maintain a balanced asset allocation to perform well in different economic scenarios, influenced by the interplay of economic growth, recession, inflation, and deflation [4][5]. - Dalio's strategy does not focus on predicting economic cycles but rather on diversifying asset allocation to mitigate market volatility and ensure consistent performance across different environments [5]. Group 2: Classic Asset Allocation - The classic All Weather portfolio consists of 30% stocks, which are seen as a long-term growth engine but are subject to significant short-term volatility [8]. - In different economic scenarios, the performance of various assets is as follows: - Economic growth + rising inflation: Stocks and commodities perform best - Economic growth + falling inflation: Both stocks and bonds perform well - Economic recession + rising inflation (stagflation): Gold and commodities excel - Economic recession + falling inflation: Bonds perform exceptionally well, with gold also benefiting [9][10]. Group 3: Simplified Strategy for Ordinary Investors - Ordinary investors may find it challenging to replicate Dalio's strategy due to high asset thresholds, complex configurations, and global diversification difficulties [11]. - The "Snowball Three-Part Method" is proposed as a simplified version, focusing on asset diversification, market diversification, and time diversification to optimize returns and reduce risks [11][15]. - The recommended allocation for the Snowball Three-Part Method includes 40% stocks, 40% bonds, and 20% cash or money market funds, allowing for a balanced approach to investment [13][14].

在基金投资中，最重要的是什么？很多人的答案无非是择基和择时。但现实很残酷——那些精心 挑选的基金、反复测算的买卖点，反而容易让人在市场高点被套牢。 你发现了吗？每次市场热潮退去后，总有人站在山顶亏损，明明看过数据、听过分析，为什么结 局还是不如意？ 其实关键不在基金本身，而在于我们总用线性思维理解波动市场：看到短期涨跌就想精准抄底逃 顶，盯着热门基金就默认能持续上涨。 今天我们就来聊聊，普通投资者如何在市场中赚到钱。 答案或许比想象中的简单——"躺平"，让好的资产配置带你走过牛熊起伏。 2. 分散风险，避免单一资产的系统性风险 资产轮动永不停歇，从过去10年全球主要资产的历年收益中，可以明显看出：不管是股市、债 市、商品、外汇、比特币或者房价，都是起起落落，有阶段性成为黑马的时候，也有垫底的时 候。霍华德·马克斯曾对这种轮动做过很好的总结：像这样好资产变成坏资产，坏资产又变成好资 产的过程，就是周期循环。只不过，什么时间点会发生转变，没人有确切答案。 为何需要资产配置 "择基"和"择时"是大部分人亏损的根源，其对长期收益的贡献远远比不上资产配置。 加里·布林森的研究表明，大约90%的投资收益来源于资产配置，而 ...